BGC Priv Journal
Not many really consider this scenario: stocks over summer experience low volume mostly consolidating/ do nothing, gold consolidates, commodities consolidates, and everyone and there grandma knows it's a cyclical asset mid bull and looks like this Now that…
https://x.com/hkuppy/status/1798683087800545548?s=46&t=NRlkQuAPWBELCvf54beFgA
Some smart Hedgies already picking up on the favorable supply/demand dynamics the ETFs are creating
Some smart Hedgies already picking up on the favorable supply/demand dynamics the ETFs are creating
X (formerly Twitter)
Kuppy (@hkuppy) on X
Float dynamics apply here. They keep cornering #BITCOIN
If she breaks to a new high, think the inflows go into overdrive…
If she breaks to a new high, think the inflows go into overdrive…
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BGC Priv Journal
Not many really consider this scenario: stocks over summer experience low volume mostly consolidating/ do nothing, gold consolidates, commodities consolidates, and everyone and there grandma knows it's a cyclical asset mid bull and looks like this Now that…
Semi’s & crypto been my macro thesis since 2022, semis can still move in this scenario while hyperscalers consolidating mute their return contribution to the index’s
i've been noticing, recently liike maybe for a week, asia hours is getting bullish again as if they're now in bid mode again. There also keeps being no synchrony. like when america's bullish asia's bearish and vice versa. when it lines up thats gonan be dope. i have a thought that it might happen soonish, like after september if we get the first cut then (between 3Q and 4Q)
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BGC Priv Journal
i've been noticing, recently liike maybe for a week, asia hours is getting bullish again as if they're now in bid mode again. There also keeps being no synchrony. like when america's bullish asia's bearish and vice versa. when it lines up thats gonan be dope.…
part of it has to do with this, some thoughts i had from last quarter. funny enough now there r headlines on "ration to smaller caps now" (cnbc always so late)
further thought is, during this time QQQ's way outperformed BTC. Now that we have to think abut BTC within the context of institutional rotations / flow, why would they be "aping" etf's while semi's / tech outperforming (not so much pensions and FA's but more HF, LO type funds). that dislocation in order of flows prob also partly caused the decoupling and the correlation to weaken with Q's to the upside and crypto to the downside
further thought is, during this time QQQ's way outperformed BTC. Now that we have to think abut BTC within the context of institutional rotations / flow, why would they be "aping" etf's while semi's / tech outperforming (not so much pensions and FA's but more HF, LO type funds). that dislocation in order of flows prob also partly caused the decoupling and the correlation to weaken with Q's to the upside and crypto to the downside
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BGC Priv Journal
part of it has to do with this, some thoughts i had from last quarter. funny enough now there r headlines on "ration to smaller caps now" (cnbc always so late) further thought is, during this time QQQ's way outperformed BTC. Now that we have to think abut…
going back to the origional thought, i've been thinking part of this rotation to reduce big tech exposure and roll into more risky names like small cap value, reits, financials., might also include adding BTC and ETH as a tech replacement.
Crypto has now been decoupling to the upside. While there was clear rotation in trad markets, btc/eth were getting bid. im not bent on it yet, but interesting pattern that have been notcing. Something thinking about in the back of my head and keeping a eye on (usually subtle at first and grows).
Crypto has now been decoupling to the upside. While there was clear rotation in trad markets, btc/eth were getting bid. im not bent on it yet, but interesting pattern that have been notcing. Something thinking about in the back of my head and keeping a eye on (usually subtle at first and grows).
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Forwarded from Wen
When we hit 70k, someone launched a big sell as expected. Market makers provided liquidity and had to play hot potato until they can find demand. Some demand was found at 67k and 66.2k. This is likely the temporary bottom for BTC IMO given the 2nd wave downwards to find demand was much shorter and we should bounce back
The rejection looks bad bc of the distance down, but it's also bc we went up so fast so buyers were unwiling to chase. The more time we spend up here, the more dip buyers get impatient and move up their bids. Buyers of 66.2k should just be the first wave of demand (the more impatient dip buyers)
So taking that all in, was previously bullish BTC to touch 72k, but think im more bullish now
The rejection looks bad bc of the distance down, but it's also bc we went up so fast so buyers were unwiling to chase. The more time we spend up here, the more dip buyers get impatient and move up their bids. Buyers of 66.2k should just be the first wave of demand (the more impatient dip buyers)
So taking that all in, was previously bullish BTC to touch 72k, but think im more bullish now
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https://x.com/muststopmurad/status/1821895724029583448?s=46&t=NRlkQuAPWBELCvf54beFgA
I’m starting to think this dude is the biggest top signal and we need to srsly take his advice but the opposite- stop trying to find the next Wif and start hunting altcoins that are straight up down 90%+
I’m starting to think this dude is the biggest top signal and we need to srsly take his advice but the opposite- stop trying to find the next Wif and start hunting altcoins that are straight up down 90%+
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BGC Priv Journal
feel like there is no way this gap doesn't close one way or another to find equilibrium
ETH very tricky rn. Was doing that pattern where it looks like it's hanging off a cliff then as more people press short, buyers come in to push it higher. Another hint to not get trapped short during the Sunday scam action was onchain was getting spooked and underperforming while pepe, ondo, pendle (classic CEX eth beta) was outperforming. Smarter money typically operates in those larger coins vs. onchain is smaller $ and more retail/emotional. Those CEX coins also have underperformed onchain throughout the entire bounce so far, so to see that divergence of them getting a bid while onchain was lagging for the first time while eth "techincally" looked like shit, to me it was a sign to not get trapped short heading into monday open.
Also making a note not to react on high volume hours - market open/close. I think that selling in stocks at the open today is part of the unwind continuing but in a normal flowing manner vs. panic/forced selling. So extrapolating signal from open/close is probably wasted effort
Also making a note not to react on high volume hours - market open/close. I think that selling in stocks at the open today is part of the unwind continuing but in a normal flowing manner vs. panic/forced selling. So extrapolating signal from open/close is probably wasted effort
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BGC Priv Journal
https://cryptobriefing.com/boj-rate-decision-unchanged/
"Following the BOJ’s recent rate hike to 0.25% in July, there has been increased volatility in both the stock and currency markets. The central bank aims to assess the impact of this previous increase before making further adjustments, as abrupt changes could add more instability to the market.
The BoJ’s latest decision to hold rates steady comes against a backdrop of shifting monetary policies from the US central bank."
TLDR - Powel called Japan and was like Bro chilll hahahahahhahha
The BoJ’s latest decision to hold rates steady comes against a backdrop of shifting monetary policies from the US central bank."
TLDR - Powel called Japan and was like Bro chilll hahahahahhahha
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BGC Priv Journal
"Following the BOJ’s recent rate hike to 0.25% in July, there has been increased volatility in both the stock and currency markets. The central bank aims to assess the impact of this previous increase before making further adjustments, as abrupt changes could…
9/20 note
- the USD side of the risk equation should chill out post cuts
- the Yen side of the risk equation should chil out from BOJ meeting
- FX volatility for usd/jpy should start to reduce
this should help ease up sell pressure on risk assets (reduce the amount of deleveraging thats been going on from people getting squeezed by a falling dollar and rising yen). This is probably why the market responded so aggressively positive to the announcement.
Going to look to Semi's over the next week or so to see how its absorbed (one of the most impacted area's from all this so good signal). Overall, this is great news for the spot we're currently in.
- the USD side of the risk equation should chill out post cuts
- the Yen side of the risk equation should chil out from BOJ meeting
- FX volatility for usd/jpy should start to reduce
this should help ease up sell pressure on risk assets (reduce the amount of deleveraging thats been going on from people getting squeezed by a falling dollar and rising yen). This is probably why the market responded so aggressively positive to the announcement.
Going to look to Semi's over the next week or so to see how its absorbed (one of the most impacted area's from all this so good signal). Overall, this is great news for the spot we're currently in.