4/17/2024 Notes Part1: A lot of this correction was due to the macro, specifically the market reverting it’s rate cut expectations - away from "declining interest rate env" to "sticky and maybe reacceleration (reacceleration being the primary concern of the conflict escalation) environment".

You can see the changes monitoring the fed watch tool, expectations at this point have nearly completely reset to 0 cuts at the June meeting. That swing creating bond volatility is what sent most assets down and caused cross asset volatility (the conflict played a role in creating concern for commodity price spikes causing inflation to re-accelerate)

First photo was market expectations on March 14th. Second photo is what the expectation is today (April 17th)

4/17/2024 Notes Part2: We are likely closer to the end of this volatility rather than the start because a) most shock factors, geopolitical and fed induced, have been done (on the rate side, big reversion in rate cut expectations) b) Unless there’s a significant escalation in the conflict abroad or the Fed say’s they’re going to hike or interest rates run away to the upside, attention likely shift to earnings and away from macro.

Reversion Back to the 2022/2023 regime where rate’s were the focal point causing cross asset volatility, pulling out that playbook:

1) US 2Y Hovering around 5% typically an overdone signal

2) Oil further points to rates being the focal point of fear – middle east escalation leading to reacceleration in inflation is the markets concern vs. conflict itself.

3) Today was the first day since the market slipped back into this regime where rates down, stocks down, oil down, dollar down, vix down, TLT and junk bond etf’s up – usually indicated closer to the end than the start

I think it may be +EV to revisit a lot of coins on eth we've all written off as dead. There's stuff out there whales have been accumulating for months and cleaning up distro on priming them to run hard - recent examples are jotchua, monke (from 2023), kento (from 2023). Making small scattered bets across ones where u notice signs of accumulation may be a really good asymmetric risk / reward opportunity bc "losing" is the coin not going up vs. u losing from them going down (downside relativly low bc most of the candidates are bottom grinding dead + u sized small). 1 or 2 hitting is big and will probably more than make up for any losses on ones that don't hit

Monke example above

example of the kinda chart that sparks interest

Very nice bounce for BTC off last cycle's ATH's close on the Monthly. LTF it's gotten out and resting nicely on top of that support zone

There's also nothing like a new monthly candle. On HTF momentum really starting to set up for some big moves to the upside (maybe summer?)