Also expect ETH > SOL for onchain for a brief period of time. Mainette will do well, but L2 on chain will probably have larger runs.

On Base you're starting to see liquidity broaden out more and winners of the prev run starting to bottom. I also think ARB and OP on chain are sleepers, for example BOOP has gone from 8mil to 21mil in 2 days.

For OP finally grabbed a long term bag of TUX. Reasoning is think other L2's are going to start grabbing attn. Arb whales pushing boop to get eyes back on arb. OP being a competitor to arb, they're prob going to pump tux to remain competitive for attn. At 1.7mil, being one of the main OP meme's starting to grab LT bag is a decent r/r. GCR also owns tux.

4/17/2024 Notes Part1: A lot of this correction was due to the macro, specifically the market reverting it’s rate cut expectations - away from "declining interest rate env" to "sticky and maybe reacceleration (reacceleration being the primary concern of the conflict escalation) environment".

You can see the changes monitoring the fed watch tool, expectations at this point have nearly completely reset to 0 cuts at the June meeting. That swing creating bond volatility is what sent most assets down and caused cross asset volatility (the conflict played a role in creating concern for commodity price spikes causing inflation to re-accelerate)

First photo was market expectations on March 14th. Second photo is what the expectation is today (April 17th)

4/17/2024 Notes Part2: We are likely closer to the end of this volatility rather than the start because a) most shock factors, geopolitical and fed induced, have been done (on the rate side, big reversion in rate cut expectations) b) Unless there’s a significant escalation in the conflict abroad or the Fed say’s they’re going to hike or interest rates run away to the upside, attention likely shift to earnings and away from macro.

Reversion Back to the 2022/2023 regime where rate’s were the focal point causing cross asset volatility, pulling out that playbook:

1) US 2Y Hovering around 5% typically an overdone signal

2) Oil further points to rates being the focal point of fear – middle east escalation leading to reacceleration in inflation is the markets concern vs. conflict itself.

3) Today was the first day since the market slipped back into this regime where rates down, stocks down, oil down, dollar down, vix down, TLT and junk bond etf’s up – usually indicated closer to the end than the start