bitcoin also has never had a monthly close above the prev cycle monthly ath and then preceded to go below those highs. This cycle has also felt so much like 2017 to me as well vs. feeling like last cycle, esp pa wise and the way the markets moving. I still think theres a cohort of people that think we have to dip huge (30-40%+) bc of the halving, but thats not consistant across cycles. Also 1) there's a group of people onboarded onto crypto that cycle so thats predominantly their bias; 2) The world is not shutting down anytime soon this year like last cycle; 3) Recency bias is playing a role in the "big dip pre-having" view.

zoomed out to zoomed in - squiggles arent exact, but think it's the two likely outcomes for pa depending on what btc does here. rn btc's kinda resting right on that weekly close, what it does form here prob determines which of the two general outcomes more likely to happen.

This is just what im lookin at rn to guage april may look like atm

Also expect ETH > SOL for onchain for a brief period of time. Mainette will do well, but L2 on chain will probably have larger runs.

On Base you're starting to see liquidity broaden out more and winners of the prev run starting to bottom. I also think ARB and OP on chain are sleepers, for example BOOP has gone from 8mil to 21mil in 2 days.

For OP finally grabbed a long term bag of TUX. Reasoning is think other L2's are going to start grabbing attn. Arb whales pushing boop to get eyes back on arb. OP being a competitor to arb, they're prob going to pump tux to remain competitive for attn. At 1.7mil, being one of the main OP meme's starting to grab LT bag is a decent r/r. GCR also owns tux.

4/17/2024 Notes Part1: A lot of this correction was due to the macro, specifically the market reverting it’s rate cut expectations - away from "declining interest rate env" to "sticky and maybe reacceleration (reacceleration being the primary concern of the conflict escalation) environment".

You can see the changes monitoring the fed watch tool, expectations at this point have nearly completely reset to 0 cuts at the June meeting. That swing creating bond volatility is what sent most assets down and caused cross asset volatility (the conflict played a role in creating concern for commodity price spikes causing inflation to re-accelerate)

First photo was market expectations on March 14th. Second photo is what the expectation is today (April 17th)