Once Europe leaves lmaooo

Good Lord, SMCI +36% on the day after releasing peliminary earnings results, full earnings Jan 31st.

AMD +7% with TSMC confirmation of HPC QoQ Rev Acceleration + SMCI results

Advantest +8.6%, reasons similar to AMD. Japanese company, worlds largest Automated Test Equipment maker

Regardless of macro, it's an analyst hat wearing market vs. Portfolio Manager hat market since Oct. 2022. Cut the noise, negative outlooks on macro leads to earnings surprises and offsides positioning. The more negative/underestimated the higher the torque. Stories in the numbers

I've outlined before on the reasons why ticker bitcoin needed to go lower bc it was not nearly cleansed enough. Turns out that thought is looking like it was the correct view. To be honest, I think it can still go even lower from here before beginning it's real consolidation period where supply will start to redistribute from whales to the hardcore believers. There will be more time capitulation for ticker bitcoin and still thinks it's performance will be very disappointing for those making the assumption that it's the king while they themselves are just traders using it as eth beta - ironically they are the problem that will cause the underperformance that leads to their own disappointment

Ticker bitcoin listing on bybit - saved the coin honestly, lower was likely.

https://x.com/RealHPOS10I/status/1748818633072013629?s=20

Some Notes Part1:

Equities bottomed Oct 2022 when the US Gov turned on the Fiscal Printer + there was a lot of liquidity put into the system through BTFD program and then Social Security Being based on Previous Year CPI. It's strange years because they coincided with the baby boomer gen accelerating retirement, esp now that yields aren't 0. Their social security payments during 2022 where based on 2021 CPI data which was peak, so when they would get their payments in a declining interest rate environment they "felt richer" than normal and would spend (i.e. All the larps saying how are consumers so strong?)

tldr; ^ those factors + the fiscal printer created a big liquidity injection which offset tightening and boosted earnings growth

Crypto also benefitted from this since global liq has been on the rise due to fiscal. What really market the start of the impulse move of BTC was China announcing a large fiscal stimulus plan - https://x.com/BlueLightCapit1/status/1717010694866874873?s=20.

I also think a lot underestimate the liquidity contribution Asia has to crypto as well, so it caught alot of people off guard - https://x.com/BlueLightCapit1/status/1716491159353151522?s=20.

Although Eth and L1's like solana did well, the BRC20 Eco system and ordinals had some of the largest ROI's out there and the people I talk to that were really early to this predominantly from asia (coincidence? lol).

Some Notes Part 2:

Looking forward Regarding ETH:

i think theres to much noise surrounding Solana's bottom to peak performance when ironically Sol peaked out when it's drawdown from 2021 cycle peak was = to eth's drawdown from 2021 peak, so really it was a giant mean reversion trade. All old L1's had the opportunity to compete in that time, but the only one that made it to match Eth's 50% drawdown from peak was solana. All that could just be the market deciding that from the old guard of L1's last cycle, Solana will make it forward, scrap everything else (waste of mental energy to pay attn to them). https://x.com/BlueLightCapit1/status/1747318848297001118?s=20

February always a good month for crypto (18/20 months green) usually in the back half. For Eth we've already seen DeFi leading the way and new pnozi's popping up. On Solana, liquidity is dry and being recycled vs. new liq inputs coming in. You can tell this by new runners nor reaching last lead runners highs, new runners creating liq black holes, and deep in the new launch trenches things top out at lower and lower market caps.

Liq drying on solana, signs of liq re-entering eth, seasonality, and the upcoming blast unlocks can be a big Tailwind for Eth imho. Blast is also key, bc whales can't really play on Solana, LP's there aren't thick enough for it to be worth their time

I think this is also why it feels like 2016/2017 but compressed and you can see similarities in the PA.

1) Only other cycle during a Global CB tightening Cycle

2) Cycle speed/compression bc Fiscal Policy turned on the Liquidity Jets Earlier than normal

3) When/if the monetary liquidity input comes on things can get super retarted. However, monetary liq input (Fed Cuts) isn't as needed bc we've already had a huge Global Liq Injection from Fiscal

I have a feeling this cycle will be faster than normal and you'll probably want to get out quicker instead of following a standard 4 year playbook. Reason being is that the liquidity injection really started in 2022, but PA was slightly muted from tightening. Going off liquidity injections, we could already be in year 2.5, prob think 2025 is a good time to wind down a bit

February is looking good, still expect some volatility, but a bigger szn for on-chain towards the back half

INJ lining up nicely as well

I still think $VARK is a sleeper. A lot of those guys have run it up big on sol, all while wearing the ardvark pfp's. I don't doubt they will be max bidding this coin and it's sitting at sub 1mil. I really don't like aping something that's been above 1mil and then breaks below, big rule for me. However, i think in this case I'll make an exception since they had a new launch and changed the contract to be 0/0.

The community's also still based and kickin it. I also rode the wave from 300k to 3mil last season, so also have a soft spot for it.

January CPI just released is hotter than expected: MOM headline up 0.3 versus expectation of 0.2%. MOM core up .4 versus expectation of .3%. Headline YOY up 3.1% versus expectation of 2.9%. Core YOY up 3.9% versus expectation of 3.7%. Headline YOY did drop from December 3.4%, core was the same in December at 3.9%.

Overall, a bad report for markets. This is a wobbly report for the dis-inflation trend and solidifies a Fed on hold until they see additional data. Yields are much higher on the news, the 10 year Treasury up 11 bps currently yielding 4.28%.

Market's were setting up good on the crypto side, unless there's no big retracement as a reaction thesis is unchanged.

Bloomberg talking about bitcoin right now, we asked for more correlated reactions to macro events once when ETF's were greenlighted.

Cut VARK for now to manage a bit of risk. Still clipped 45%, consider that a win (*I will probably regret this)