Arb Files
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12 videos
170 links
Real traffic-arbitrage case studies with actual spend, revenue and ROI — the campaigns that printed, the ones that flopped, and exactly why.
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The 3-touch kill rule that saved my account

I used to let ads die slow. Now I run a fixed kill protocol on every new creative, and it stopped me from torching budgets on hope.

The setup
New offer, push traffic, $7 target CPA. I launch 12 creatives at $15/day each = $180/day live.

The move
Three hard gates, checked in order:
— Gate 1, at 1x payout spend ($7): zero clicks to LP? Kill. No data needed, the angle is dead.
— Gate 2, at 2x payout ($14): traffic but zero conversions and CTR under 0.4%? Kill.
— Gate 3, at 3x payout ($21): one conversion but CPA over $11 (1.5x target)? Pause, don't scale.

The numbers
Of 12 creatives, 7 died at Gate 1-2 having spent ~$95 total. Survivors got the remaining budget. Day-7 blended CPA landed at $6.40, ROI +9%.

The lesson
Most losers reveal themselves by 2x payout spend. Waiting for "statistical significance" on a dead angle is just paying tuition twice.

What I'd do differently
I'd write the gates into a saved automated rule instead of checking manually at 2am. I missed a Gate-2 kill once and that one creative ate $40 alone. Numbers here are illustrative, the discipline is the point.
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В публичный релиз вышел Fable 5.1

➡️ Читайте на сайте: https://aff.top/blog/v-publichnyi-reliz-vyshel-fable-5-1

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1xBet перестал спонсировать эмоции

История о том, как казахстанцы зарегистрировали рекламный слоган 1xBet, а сам бренд оказался в юридической ловушке: после сделки с TonyBet права на товарный знак так и не выкупили. На фоне ареста активов Романа Семиохина и уголовного дела по азартным играм вывод простой: с 1xBet сейчас лучше не строить рекламные связки на рынке Казахстана.

➡️ Читайте на сайте: https://aff.top/blog/1xbet-perestal-sponsirovat-emocii

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Forwarded from AFF.TOP - про арбитраж трафика и CPA рынок!
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За продажу аккаунтов в мессенджере теперь грозит статья

С 1 сентября 2026 года продажа аккаунтов соцсетей и мессенджеров в России стала уголовно и административно рискованной: штраф до 700 тысяч рублей, принудительные работы или лишение свободы до 2–3 лет. Если через аккаунт украдут деньги, продавца могут записать в соучастники мошенничества по ст. 159 УК РФ с риском до 10 лет.

➡️ Читайте на сайте: https://aff.top/blog/za-prodazhu-akkauntov-v-messendzhere-teper-grozit-statia

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My 9-point pre-launch checklist (built from blown launches)

Every item on this list exists because skipping it once cost me money. Run it before a single dollar goes live.

The checklist
— Pixel fires? Open the LP, trigger the event, confirm in the platform's test tool. (Skipped once, ran blind 3 days, ~$220 unattributable.)
— Postback test conversion logged in the tracker? Send one manually.
— Cloaker, if used, shows safe page to the bot IP and money page to the geo? Test with a VPN.
— Offer cap not already hit for the day? Ask the manager.
— Geo/device targeting matches the offer's allowed list, not just "all".
— LP load under 2.5s on 3G throttle? Slow LP = bleeding the top of funnel.
— Capping/frequency set so you don't pay for the same user 6 times.
— Daily budget cap set, not just bid. One typo on a CBO and you wake up to $900 spent.
— Tracking links have the right sub-IDs to slice later.

The numbers
This list takes ~20 minutes. The launch it saved most: a broken postback would've hidden $1,100 in real conversions, making me kill a winner.

The lesson
The expensive mistakes aren't bad creatives, they're invisible plumbing failures.

What I'd do differently
Laminate it. Figures illustrative, the order is not.
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Google выпустил в релиз Gemini 3.8 flash

Google выпустил Gemini 3.8 Flash спустя две недели после 3.7: модель обещает сильный кодинг и быстрый отклик, а цена остаётся низкой — $0,75 за млн входящих токенов и $3,75 за млн исходящих. Вывод простой: пока Google демпингует, это выгодный вариант для тех, кому нужны дешёвые и быстрые нейросетевые запросы.

➡️ Читайте на сайте: https://aff.top/blog/google-vypustil-v-reliz-gemini-3-8-flash

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Яндекс запустил сервис ПроБлогер

Яндекс запустил ПроБлогер — платформу для монетизации небольших каналов и групп во ВКонтакте, Дзене, Максе, Telegram, YouTube и Rutube. Для модерации нужны от 1000 подписчиков, свежие публикации, статус самозанятого, ИП или юрлица и соблюдение закона. Доход доступен через автопостинг с оплатой за просмотры и партнёрские ссылки; CPM можно задать самому или отдать аукциону.

➡️ Читайте на сайте: https://aff.top/blog/iandeks-zapustil-servis-probloger

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Google ads упростил перенос креативов из Asset Studio

➡️ Читайте на сайте: https://aff.top/blog/google-ads-uprostil-perenos-kreativov-iz-asset-studio

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How I scale a winner without killing it: the 20% ladder

The fastest way to murder a profitable campaign is to double the budget overnight. Here's the slow ladder that actually holds ROI.

The setup
Winning campaign: $50/day spend, $11 CPA on a $14 payout, ROI +27%, stable for 5 days.

The move
Two lanes, run in parallel:
— Vertical: raise budget by 20% max per day, only if yesterday's CPA stayed under target. $50 to $60 to $72. Anything above 20% retriggers the learning phase and resets your math.
— Horizontal: duplicate the winning ad set into 1 new geo and 1 new placement at $20/day each, fresh, not as a budget bump.

The numbers
Vertical lane reached $124/day over 8 days, CPA crept to $12.10 (still green). Horizontal lane found a second geo at $9.80 CPA, better than the original.

The lesson
Vertical scaling compresses margin as you exhaust the cheap audience. Horizontal scaling finds new cheap audiences. You need both, and horizontal is usually where the real money hides.

What I'd do differently
I moved vertical too aggressively on day 6, CPA spiked to $15 for a day, lost ~$40 reclaiming stability. Cap it at 20%, period. Illustrative numbers.
The creative test grid: stop guessing which variable matters

I wasted months changing five things at once and learning nothing. Then I built a variable grid.

The setup
Nutra offer, native traffic, flat results from random creatives.

The move
Isolate ONE variable per round. Round 1 = hook only. Pick one image, one body, write 4 different headlines. Everything else identical.
— Round 1: headlines (4 variants)
— Round 2: take winning headline, test 4 images
— Round 3: winning headline + image, test 4 angles in the body
— Round 4: winning combo, test 3 CTAs

Each round runs to ~2x payout spend per variant, then you lock the winner and move down.

The numbers
Headline round alone swung CTR from 0.6% to 1.4%. By round 3 the compounded combo hit $5.20 CPA vs the $9 I started with. Total testing spend: ~$310 across four rounds.

The lesson
The headline usually carries 60-70% of the lift. Test it first, in isolation, before you touch anything else.

What I'd do differently
Fewer variants per round (3, not 4) to spend less reaching a verdict. Numbers illustrative.
How to read the break-even window before you trust ROI

Day-1 ROI lies. Here's the playbook I use to know when a number is real.

The setup
Lead-gen offer, payout confirmed on a 7-day hold. My tracker shows ROI instantly, but money lands later.

The move
— Step 1: find the offer's actual payment terms. Confirmed vs pending vs scrubbed. Ask, don't assume.
— Step 2: build two ROI lines. "Reported ROI" (what the tracker says now) and "Confirmed ROI" (after expected scrub %).
— Step 3: apply a scrub haircut. New offer with no history? Assume 15-20% of leads reject until you have data.
— Step 4: only scale on Confirmed ROI, never Reported.

The numbers
Reported ROI showed +34%. Manager's scrub came in at 22%. Confirmed ROI: +5%. I almost scaled hard on a campaign that was barely green.

The lesson
Reported ROI is a hypothesis. Confirmed ROI is the business. The gap between them is where over-scaling kills accounts.

What I'd do differently
Log the scrub rate per offer in a sheet so the haircut gets accurate over time instead of a guess. Figures illustrative.