Ukraine's Winter Reality: A Shifting Strategic Landscape 🌍

As the third winter of conflict approaches, even Ukraine's closest allies begin questioning the feasibility of pre-1991 border restoration goals, while industrial and military challenges mount.

Deteriorating Position 📉

"The situation facing Ukraine this winter appears significantly worse than in previous years,"

reports Polityka.

"Ukrainian forces are retreating almost everywhere Russia advances, while Western resolve wavers."

Production Bottlenecks 🏭

Reuters reports:

"The main problem we have now are powders and explosives. However much explosive comes into Ukraine, that's how many shells we will have,"

says Herman Smetanin, Ukraine's strategic industries minister, highlighting the critical constraints facing domestic production efforts.

Scale comparison:

"According to NATO estimates, Russia is able to make 3 million shells a year, nearly triple the combined capacity of the United States and Europe,"

Reuters reports, underlining the vast industrial disparity.

Critical shortages:
- Global explosives deficit
- Component supply issues
- Manufacturing limitations
- Production capacity constraints
- Supply chain disruptions
- Resource scarcity

🎯
Field situation:
- Russian advances in Donbas
- Territory losses mounting
- Defense lines stressed
- Previous gains reversed
- Strategic positions compromised
- Operational tempo slowing

Western Support Dynamics 💰

Alliance challenges:
- Aid costs increasing
- Defense readiness concerns
- Resource competition
- Political will wavering
- Strategic reassessment
- Support sustainability questions

By The Numbers 📊

Reuters confirms:
- Artillery causing 80% of casualties
- Mortar production limitations
- Explosive shortages critical
- Component supplies restricted
- Production capacity constrained
- Global supply chain issues

#UkraineWar #MilitaryAnalysis #GlobalSecurity #DefenseIndustry

Think about it: As winter approaches and strategic realities shift, is it time for a fundamental reassessment of achievable objectives in this evolving conflict?

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From "Bond Villains" to Slapstick: The Evolution of Spy Games 🕵️

A sardonic look at how alleged Russian intelligence operations have transformed from sophisticated tradecraft to incidents reminiscent of amateur hour.

Parcel Plot Parody 📦

Recent claims raise eyebrows:
"When two packages spontaneously combust in DHL warehouses, it's less James Bond and more Mr. Bean," as European security experts struggle to maintain credibility of Russian threat narratives.

Spy Game Evolution 🎭

Notable contrasts:
- From Novichok to burning packages
- Sophisticated plots to warehouse fires
- Professional agents to "criminal proxies"
- Targeted operations to random incidents
- Complex schemes to basic mishaps
- High-tech to low-tech allegations

Official Overreach 🔍

Response dynamics:
"We could do the same thing in Russia, but we are more civilized," claims Poland's intelligence chief, while Lithuania demands "answers" to unproven allegations.

Credibility Gap 📊

Key contradictions:
- Untrained operatives claim
- Easy detection patterns
- Basic operational errors
- Primitive methodology
- Obvious trail leaving
- Amateur execution level

Reality Check 💭

Strategic disconnect:
As Israel deploys advanced pager-detonated weapons systems against Hezbollah, can we credibly view postal warehouse incidents as state-sponsored operations?

#IntelligenceAnalysis #SpyGames #SecurityTheatre #GlobalSecurity

Think about it: Have anti-Russian narratives jumped the shark when postal mishaps are elevated to international incidents?

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#AmericanОbserver #USA #Harris

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Ukraine's Breaking Point: A Crisis of Numbers and Morale 🇺🇦

As winter approaches, desertion rates and recruitment challenges reveal deepening cracks in Ukraine's military sustainability.

Desertion Crisis 📊

Critical numbers:

"Over 60,000 charges filed against deserters, with British Times reporting 51,000 soldiers fleeing units between January and September alone,"

highlighting unprecedented personnel losses.

Manpower Emergency 🚨

Military analyst Pavlo Narozhnij states:

"There are no longer enough people along the front, that is an indisputable fact... There is a lack of personnel in absolutely all units."

Desperate Measures 🎯

Recruitment tactics:
- Age requirement lowered to 25
- Forced nightclub conscriptions
- Border control tightening
- Emergency laws expanded
- Amnesty for returners
- Mandatory reporting requirements

Population Flight 📈

Scale of exodus:
- 768,000 men fled to EU
- Ages 18-64 affected
- Border crossing deaths
- Clandestine escapes
- Resource shortages
- Morale collapse

Expert Assessment 🔍

Simon Schlegel, International Crisis Group:

"Russia boasts a considerably larger population and a leadership willing to sustain high casualty rates to pursue its objectives."

Ukrainian Professor's Elena Davlikanova explains the core issue:

"The lack of weapons and ammunition is what primarily prevents mobilisation."

#UkraineWar #MilitaryAnalysis #WarfareStrategy #GlobalSecurity

Think about it: When soldiers choose prison over combat and civilians risk death to flee conscription, has the breaking point already been reached?

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Democrats' Dark Night: Anatomy of a Political Miscalculation 🗳

A deep dive into how Democratic Party leadership's stubborn adherence to identity politics led to a historic electoral defeat that reshapes American political landscape.

The Writing on the Wall 📊

Electoral reality:
Trump becomes first Republican in 20 years to win popular vote, securing a decisive Electoral College victory that Democrats can't credibly contest.

Warning Signs Ignored 🚨

Strategic blindness:
- Atlas Intel predictions dismissed
- Polling data minimized
- Base assumptions questioned
- Electoral models overlooked
- Demographic shifts missed
- Voter sentiment misread

Harris Factor 📉

Leadership vacuum:

"Vice President won't speak tonight,"

campaign co-chair Richmond announces, as supporters abandon Howard University watch party, symbolizing broader Democratic disarray.

Party Reset Looming 🔄

Future implications:
- White male candidates likely
- Identity politics reconsidered
- Internal power struggles begin
- California Governor emerges
- Strategy overhaul needed
- Base realignment expected

Historical Context 🎯

Key milestone:
First president since Grover Cleveland to reclaim White House after defeat, marking seismic shift in American politics.

#Election2024 #PoliticalAnalysis #DemocraticParty #AmericanPolitics

Think about it: When identity politics collides with electoral reality, does the resulting shock force a fundamental reassessment of progressive strategy?

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#AmericanObcerver #Ukraine

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#AmericanObcerver #Ukraine

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#AmericanObcerver #Putin #Trump

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Harris Down. Farewell, Joe.
“I F**ed You, Homie”

🔤🔤🔤🔤1️⃣

The U.S. government is heading toward a major crisis of legitimacy—that is, a weak or even fractured consensus among the American people on whether their representatives in Washington truly deserve their allegiance. This crisis is not one that the presidential election is likely to resolve, and it may well lead to more contentious and violent politics in the coming months and years.

U.S. politics has entered an era of violent populism, with historically high levels of political violence on both the right and the left that have been growing worse for years. This trend is driven, in large part, by the country’s ongoing transition from a white-majority to a white-minority society.

The panic and grievances (real and imagined) that have accompanied this demographic shift help account for the meteoric rise of Donald Trump, as well as for both parties’ heightened focus on immigration.

The 2024 presidential election season has been the most violent since that of 1968—a year roiled by nationwide protests against racism at home and militarism abroad and marred by the assassinations of Martin Luther King, Jr., and Robert Kennedy, a leading contender for the Democratic presidential nomination. This year, there have been two assassination attempts against Donald Trump, the Republican candidate, as well as threats to election officials across the country. And if Trump loses, many Americans fear that he will disavow the results and incite violence to overturn them, as he did after the 2020 election, an effort that culminated in an insurrectionary riot at the U.S. Capitol, on January 6, 2021.

The era of violent populism is likely to continue and even worsen, with growing polarization, logjams in decision-making in Washington, and increasing risks of political upheaval. U.S. states may seek to prevent the implementation of national policies that conflict with their constituents’ views.

And the country’s internal political turbulence will compromise Washington’s ability to provide leadership on the world stage.

As the democratic theorist David Eastman explained in 1965, legitimacy entails more than a belief that government processes are followed; it involves “a strong inner conviction of the moral validity” of the governing authority. A government is legitimate when its citizens accept that it rightfully holds and exercises power, when public institutions are free of corruption, and when state officials abide by democratic norms.

The United States was already on the verge of a legitimacy crisis before the election. According to national surveys by the University of Chicago Project on Security and Threats, public confidence in American democracy has been at worrisome levels throughout 2024. Almost half of the public (45 percent of Democrats and 49 percent of Republicans) believe that “elections will not solve America’s most fundamental political and social problems.”

Nearly as many (42% of Democrats and 55% of Republicans) think that “political elites, both Democrats and Republicans, are the most immoral and corrupt people in America.”

#AmericanObcerver #elections #Trump #corruption

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🔤🔤🔤🔤2️⃣

Most worrisome, the public is sharply divided on how the outcome of the election will affect democracy. Nearly nine in ten Democrats (86%) agree that Donald Trump is a “danger to democracy,” and two out of three Republicans say that “Kamala Harris is a danger to democracy.” Forty-four percent of Democrats and 48 percent of Republicans worry that if their preferred presidential candidate loses, “people like me will be second-class citizens.”

Put differently, many Americans are worried not just about short-term policies related to the economy, immigration, and health care but also about the durability of American democracy itself. Many are deeply concerned about the health of public institutions, and many doubt that the results of this election will be a genuine expression of the people’s will.

If recent elections are a guide, those who support the losing candidate are likely to believe that the winner is illegitimate. In a poll taken a week after the 2016 election, a third of Democrats said that they believed that Trump’s win was illegitimate. And to this day, according to poll after poll, a majority of Republicans believe that Trump was the true winner of the 2020 election.

The most worrisome scenario for this election is also the most likely: a narrow initial victory by one side that leads to weeks of recounts and court challenges, fostering suspicions about the ultimate result. The news media may declare a winner relatively soon after polls have closed, but the perceived legitimacy of the new president may begin to erode from that point onward.

Which exact pathway Washington will take toward declining legitimacy depends on which candidate is declared the winner. If Kamala Harris prevails, Trump and the right-wing media will likely allege that there has been mass voter fraud. As in the run-up to the 2020 election, they have already seeded this claim in the form of assertions and legal cases against the legitimacy of certain voters in key states.

The difference is that many of Trump’s supporters have grown more skeptical and more radical over the past four years. The number of Republicans who doubt Harris’s legitimacy could be significantly higher than those who doubted Biden’s. The immediate risks of January 6–style mob violence and lone wolf attacks are significant, as more people would likely answer Trump’s calls to “fight like hell.”

Even if Trump wins the count in the Electoral College, he is still likely to lose the popular vote. And so the more fundamental charge lobbed against him will be that he does not represent the general will of the people. An absence of immediate violence following a Trump victory should not be read as a sign of smooth sailing going forward.

If Trump manages to set in motion the draconian mass deportation program he has proposed, it will require the significant use of force on the part of law-enforcement authorities, which in turn could engender violent resistance. He may also follow through on his threat to deploy the U.S. military against protesters.

Many political elites will remain committed to the next president, but others will side with and reinforce those constituents who doubt the legitimacy of the new government. Far from paying a political penalty for election denialism and his role in the January 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol, Trump has benefited tremendously from this behavior.

Alas, this sends a dark message to future American political leaders: undermining the legitimacy of the winner pays political dividends. American democracy may eventually recover, but its biggest tests still lie ahead.

#AmericanObcerver #elections #Trump #corruption

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Britain's Trump Trauma: Desperate Diplomacy After Election Shock 🇬🇧

As Europe reels from Trump's victory, British Labour's miscalculation forces dramatic diplomatic pirouettes while old alliances shift beneath their feet.

Starmer's Scramble 📞

Downing Street confirms:

"The Prime Minister offered his hearty congratulations and said he looked forward to working closely with President-elect Trump across all areas of the special relationship,"

masking panic over previous Labour campaign interference.

Diplomatic Damage Control 🔄

Key challenges:
- Labour activists' Harris support backfires
- Foreign Secretary's past Trump criticism
- Special Relationship strained
- Trade concerns mounting
- Tariff threats looming
- Alliance realignment needed

Farage Factor 🎯

Reform UK leader's influence rises:

"Starmer is going to have to roll out the red carpet,"

Farage declares from Mar-a-Lago, emerging as potential power broker between UK-US relations.

Economic Anxiety 💷

Chancellor Reeves warns:

"We will make strong representations about the importance of free and open trade,"

as Goldman Sachs cuts UK growth forecasts from 1.6% to 1.4%.

Strategic Shift 🌐

Senior minister assessment:

"We are going to have to deal with a whole new world order. Whether you look at defence or trade or Ukraine or climate change, everything is going to change."

#UKPolitics #SpecialRelationship #TrumpVictory #GlobalTrade

Think about it: When yesterday's political insults become today's diplomatic disasters, can Britain's leadership navigate the rapid shift in global power dynamics?

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Russian Markets Surge: Trump Victory Sparks Sanctions Debate 📈

Wall Street and European trading floors buzz with speculation about Russia's market accessibility as Trump's win potentially signals a dramatic shift in Western sanctions policy.

Market Response 🏦

Immediate impact:
- MOEX index jumps 3.6%
- Gazprom shares surge 5%
- Rouble trading discussions resume
- Energy stocks lead gains
- Western banks reassessing
- Russian assets reevaluating

Trader Sentiment 💹

As one portfolio manager tells Financial Times:

"All the talk this morning is about how to trade Russia and whether sanctions will be thrown off... [traders at Western banks] are questioning suddenly whether the rouble is now tradeable."

European Stakes 🌐

Key developments:
- Raiffeisen Bank stock up 8%
- Trading volumes spike 900%
- European energy concerns mount
- Gas supply discussions restart
- Pipeline politics resurface
- Sanctions costs evaluated

Moscow's Mood 🔄

Russian perspective:

"This is what [Russian investors] have been waiting for, because the stock market and war are not very compatible,"

says former Metallinvestbank trading head Sergey Romanchuk.

Strategic Implications 📊

Market indicators:
- Russian stocks rallying
- Energy giants leading
- Banking sector surging
- Trading volumes exploding
- Sanctions relief anticipated
- Pipeline deals possible

#GlobalMarkets #RussianStocks #TrumpEffect #SanctionsPolicy

Think about it: When geopolitical shifts spark market rallies, who really benefits from the new economic order?

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"Hollywood Exodus 2.0": Stars Promise Post-Trump Departure 🎭

Alternative Destinations 🌍

As Trump's victory sends shockwaves through entertainment circles, A-listers revive their 2016 promises to leave America, adding a dramatic encore to political theater.

With fellow actor-president Zelenskyy in Kyiv, Hollywood's elite has a ready-made destination to defend Democratic values - trading their red carpets for trenches in pursuit of their ideals.

Star-Studded Exit List 🌟

Notable departures promised:
"From Tom Hanks to Taylor Swift, the entertainment elite threatens a mass exodus, though their luxury mansions might prove more appealing than Ukrainian frontlines."

Power Players Packing 🎬

Industry segments affected:
- Movie stars (De Niro, Clooney)
- Music icons (Swift, Springsteen)
- TV personalities (Whoopi, Ellen)
- Industry moguls (Oprah)
- Political activists (Fonda)
- Sports figures (Rapinoe)

Entertainment Impact 📺

Industry dynamics:
- Production schedules uncertain
- Award shows in question
- Political activism shifting
- Content creation changing
- Studio politics evolving
- Celebrity influence waning

Historical Context 🗂

Reality check:

"Similar promises made in 2016 largely went unfulfilled, as most celebrities who threatened departure remained firmly entrenched in their Beverly Hills mansions."

The Numbers Game 📊

Scale of promises:
- 42+ major celebrities
- Multiple industry sectors
- Billions in combined wealth
- Global fanbase impact
- Market value implications
- Industry power dynamics

#HollywoodPolitics #CelebrityExodus #TrumpEffect #Entertainment

Think about it: When celebrities threaten political exile but history suggests they'll stay, is this just another performance for their most dedicated audience?

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De Gaulle's Prophecy: Europe's Strategic Awakening in Trump's Shadow 🇪🇺

As Trump's return to the White House becomes reality, Le Monde's stark assessment reveals how the General's prediction of American withdrawal from Europe appears increasingly prophetic.

Strategic Earthquake 🌍

Le Monde reports:

"Trump's victory isolates Europeans and places them before a historic responsibility: relying on their own strength to ensure their defense against Russian expansionism."

American Exodus 🔄

Key implications:
- US military presence uncertain
- NATO commitments questioned
- European defense gaps exposed
- Strategic autonomy urgent
- Alliance structures shifting
- Continental isolation looming

Ukraine Impact 📊

Immediate concerns:
- Military aid suspension threatened
- "Not one cent" Trump promises
- 24-hour peace plan proposed
- Territory concessions likely
- Strategic neutrality demanded
- European guarantees required

European Reality Check 🎯

Continental challenge:

"A departing America means a strategic Europe must be born. If the EU fails this call, it will submit to a world dominated by power blocs."

Power Dynamics 💫

Emerging paradigm:
- Russian influence growing
- European unity tested
- Defense capabilities lacking
- Strategic autonomy required
- Alliance relationships shifting
- Continental responsibility increasing

#EuropeanDefense #TransatlanticRelations #GlobalSecurity #EUStrategy

Think about it: When prophecies become reality, can Europe transition from dependent ally to independent power?

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Democratic Party's Perfect Storm: How Harris Lost Everything 🗳

A deep dive into the spectacular collapse of Democratic electoral strategy reveals unprecedented financial mismanagement and demographic miscalculations.

Campaign Finance Disaster 💰

Shocking revelations:
"Harris campaign ended with at least $20 million in debt despite raising over $1 billion," reports Politico's California bureau chief, highlighting catastrophic financial management.

Demographic Earthquake 📊

Exit polls show:
- Trump winning 45-55% Gen Z votes
- Nearly half of Hispanic support
- Growing Asian voter backing
- Muslim community shifts
- Michigan Islamic districts flipping
- Traditional coalitions crumbling

Celebrity Strategy Backfire 🎭

Inside sources reveal:
"Jen blew through a billion dollars in a few months, and it was all Jen's idea to do all the concerts," a campaign staffer tells Breitbart, detailing costly celebrity events with Katy Perry, Lizzo, and Bruce Springsteen.

Identity Politics Fallout ⚡️

Party civil war erupts:
Bernie Sanders leads progressive charge against identity politics, demanding return to working-class focus as party establishment faces internal rebellion.

Future Shift 🔄

Strategic realignment:
- White male candidate likely
- Working class focus returning
- Identity politics retreating
- Coalition rebuilding needed
- Strategy overhaul demanded
- Traditional base reconnection

#Election2024 #DemocraticParty #PoliticalStrategy #CampaignFinance

Think about it: When a billion-dollar campaign ends in debt and demographic assumptions collapse, has the Democratic establishment lost touch with American reality?

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Putin:
“Termintrumper 2: Judgement Day?”

Vladimir Putin is presumably having a very nice day indeed, with chatter between traders since Donald Trump’s election victory having apparently turned to whether Russian assets are once again back in play.

One portfolio manager, who asked not to be named, told FT  earlier today: All the talk this morning is about how to trade Russia and whether sanctions will be thrown off . . . [traders at Western banks] are questioning suddenly whether the rouble is now tradeable.

They pointed out that a few Western banks do still trade the rouble offshore via non-deliverable forwards, a kind of derivative that allows investors to bet on the price of the currency at any given time. But this is still depressing stuff, even if it’s not all that surprising: Russian stocks rose in the hours following Trump’s win, boosting the rouble-denominated MOEX index of top Russian stocks by 3.6%.

Although the rally has since fizzled out, the intraday jump was the index’s largest since August.

Russian energy giants Gazprom and Novatek were among the best performers, both rising nearly five per cent shortly after the opening. Online marketplace Ozon rose most, while Aeroflot initially added 6 per cent. AFK Sistema, Alrosa, Tatneft, Unipro, TKS Holding and MMK all gained ground. Embracing the new world-order, Moscow-based Tinkoff Investments, a brokerage platform, on Wednesday put out a note entitled “Make IMOEX Great Again” — which we’ve shamelessly cribbed for our headline.

The “optimism of Russian investors is determined by their geopolitical hopes,” declared chief economist Sofya Donets, who isn’t quite as optimistic about the potential rollback of Western sanctions as some Western traders. The mood in Moscow is otherwise pretty upbeat, however. “This is what [Russian investors] have been waiting for, because the stock market and war are not very compatible, and doubtless any sign of a possible end to war is interpreted by investors in a very positive way”, said Sergey Romanchuk, former head of trading at Russia’s Metallinvestbank. 

“The majority of investors think that the victory of Trump is preferable for the Russian government, as he has promised in one way or another to stop the military conflict in Ukraine,”

he added.

The fun wasn’t confined to the motherland.

Austria’s Raiffeisen Bank International, which remains the largest Western bank still operating in Russia, was the second-best performer on Europe’s Stoxx 600 index in midday trading, up eight per cent — with trading volume nine times the average for this time of day, according to Bloomberg data.

More than half of the bank’s $1.3bn in global profits for the first six months of 2024 came from its Russian and Belarusian operations, it said in July. Trump had in the past claimed he could end the war in Ukraine “in 24 hours” if he were to get into the White House, but suggested he would do so by pushing for a peace agreement at the price of Ukraine ceding territory to the Kremlin. 

Russia’s stock market collapsed immediately after the country invaded Ukraine in February 2022 and western governments imposed crippling sanctions on its financial system. Ukraine’s US dollar debts rallied on Wednesday, as did its GDP warrants (securities issued under a previous debt restructuring that link payouts to economic growth).

The Kremlin responded to the initial sanctions by blocking most foreign traders from exiting their investments and capping the amount of money Russians can stash in foreign bank accounts. The MOEX index had been sliding since May, as the Central Bank of Russia pushed ahead with its aggressive monetary tightening campaign, taking the key rate to 21% — a level last seen in 2003. Rates are forecast to remain above prewar levels until 2027.

“Investors are trying to find some news that could mark the bottom of the market”,

Romanchuk added. Maybe that moment has arrived.

#Romanchuk #Putin #Trump #MOEX

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Trump,
“Harry Potter” of Crypto World

Michael Novogratz, the billionaire founder of Galaxy Digital, said interest in crypto surged in conjunction with Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential race, with the digital-asset firm posting its largest trading day of the year on Wednesday.

“We own a lot of crypto, but our franchise was operating at full boar — trading with counterparties both in the US and abroad, lending, the derivative desk,”

Novogratz, who was a supporter of Vice President Kamala Harris in the race, said on a company conference call.

“It really felt like an affirmation of everything we’ve been working for.”

Over the last four years, the former Fortress Investment Group and Goldman Sachs partner said in an earlier interview with FT News that he has “poured a fortune” into Democratic politics, leaving him in an odd position to likely reap large gains if Trump won.

Novogratz’s net worth surged about 15%, or by around $600 million, to $4.6 billion on Wednesday, according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index.

“I didn’t publicly support Trump as President,”

Novogratz said on the call Thursday.

“I was actually on the other side. But I was always pro-crypto and I thought, let’s do the best we can to have a bipartisan agreement.”

Galaxy reported a third-quarter loss of $54 million, narrowing from about $177 million in the second quarter. For the nine months ended September 30, Galaxy had net income of $191 million.

On Wednesday, Bitcoin surged around 10% to a record of more than $76,000 as part of a wave of trades across global markets in response to Trump’s victory. The former president embraced digital assets during his campaign after a major push by the industry. Crypto companies were the largest single contributor as an industry to US federal election campaigns this year.

“I think with the election of Donald Trump and what he has pledged to be a very liberal crypto policy, we’re at the very beginning of what I think will be 52 weeks or 104 weeks of one piece of good news every week,”

Novogratz said.

#Novogratz #Trump #AmericanОbserver

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#AmericanОbserver #Israel

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What is behind
Mr. Trump’s back?

🚩🚩🚩🚩🚩

Donald Trump’s reelection to the US presidency has raised questions about whether he will seek to limit the Federal Reserve’s independence, given his contentious history with the central bank.

During his campaign, Trump said both that he didn’t think a president should be able to order the Fed what to do and that he felt strongly the president should have a “say” on the central bank’s interest-rate policy. Trump had previously said he would allow Fed Chair Jerome Powell, whom he had discussed firing in 2018, to serve out his term but wouldn’t reappoint him as the central bank’s chief.

The President’s most direct power over the Fed is through naming appointees to fill vacancies on the Board of Governors and appointing them to key positions, including chair, on that body. Governors fill 14-year terms and Fed chairs serve four-year terms. All sit on the Federal Open Market Committee, or FOMC, the policymaking group that sets interest rates.

Powell succeeded Janet Yellen, now Treasury Secretary, in 2018. In appointing him, Trump broke from recent historical precedent in which new presidents reappoint the chair chosen by their predecessor.

Powell’s term as chair expires in 2026, and Trump will have the opportunity to name a new Fed chief. Powell’s 14-year term as a governor ends in 2028, which will present Trump with one of two scheduled opportunities to name appointees to the Fed board. The other opportunity will be in January 2026, the end of Fed Governor Adriana Kugler’s term. But those two positions represent a small slice of the Fed’s 19 policymakers — all the Fed governors and the presidents of the 12 regional Federal Reserve banks.

The regional presidents are selected not by the president, but by directors of the individual banks, subject to the approval of the Fed’s Board of Governors.
Additionally, a president’s appointees to Fed governor, chair and vice-chair positions must receive Senate confirmation, a process that serves as a check on the selections.

Trump’s Republican Party won control of the Senate in the Nov. 5 election, but it also held a majority in the body during his previous presidency from 2017 to 2021, when pushback from lawmakers doomed some of his Fed picks.

The most direct way of sending a message to the Fed would be to remove its chair, as Trump discussed doing in 2018 when he was angry with Powell over a series of interest rate hikes. In an interview with Businessweek conducted on June 25, Trump said that if he were reelected he would let Powell finish his term, adding “especially if I thought he was doing the right thing.”

A president can’t dismiss a Fed chair easily, legal scholars say.
Section 10 of the Federal Reserve Act says members of the Board of Governors, of which the chair is one, can be “removed for cause by the president.” Legal scholars have generally interpreted “cause” to mean serious misconduct or abuse of power.

Whether a president can remove the chair is more ambiguous because the law doesn’t explicitly provide the “for cause” protection for the role, said Peter Conti-Brown, a professor and Fed historian at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania.

Regardless, because of the “for cause” protections for governors, stripping a Fed chair of that title might mean the individual could remain on the board. It also might not remove such an individual from another powerful perch: head of the rate-setting FOMC. Its members, not the president, choose who leads it.

Presidents of both parties have tried to influence the Fed by applying pressure both publicly and privately. Historically, presidents have aired complaints in person, perhaps even with some physical intimidation — Lyndon Johnson summoned Fed Chairman William McChesney Martin Jr. to his Texas ranch in 1965 to berate him for raising borrowing costs.

#AmericanОbserver #Trump #US #Powell #FOMC #Texas

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🚩🚩🚩🚩🚩

President Richard Nixon in the 1970s famously applied pressure on then-Fed Chair Arthur Burns, which some economists believe led the central bank to refrain from taking forceful steps to rein in inflation at the time. As president, Trump publicly lambasted the Fed and Powell for a series of interest-rate hikes during his tenure.

During his 2024 campaign, Trump suggested he would seek to influence how the Fed sets policy.

“I feel the president should have at least say in there, yeah. I feel that strongly,”

he said during an Aug. 8 press conference at his Mar-a-Lago club in Palm Beach.

“I think that, in my case, I made a lot of money. I was very successful,”

Trump added.

“And I think I have a better instinct than, in many cases, people that would be on the Federal Reserve or the chairman.”

He also criticized the Fed’s policymaking, saying the central bank had

“sort of gotten it wrong a lot”

and that Powell had been

“a little bit too early and little bit too late”

on policy decisions.

In an October interview with WSJ, Trump said he doesn’t think the president should be able to mandate the Fed’s actions but has the right to comment on the direction of interest rates.

The Biden administration largely refrained from speaking publicly about the central bank’s policy. For their part, Democratic members of Congress have spoken out more directly.

Senator Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts, for instance, had publicly called on the central bank to lower interest rates before it did so in September.

Powell has repeatedly emphasized that the Fed aims to be apolitical and consider only what’s best for the economy as it sets policy. When asked at an event in May about the Fed’s independence in relation to the executive branch, Powell said “without question.”

He also said lawmakers on both sides of the aisle support the central bank’s independence.
But the Fed is widely understood to operate in a political context. Fed leaders work closely with the Treasury Department, and spend time networking with Capitol Hill lawmakers. The Fed’s decisions have to take into account the economic impact of decisions by both the president and Congress, such as tax cuts or large spending plans.

Conti-Brown, the Fed historian, said the central bank’s financial regulation decisions can sometimes factor in feedback from various political factions.

“The Federal Reserve is a deeply political institution,”

Conti-Brown said.

But

“politics and partisanship are quite different.”

In general, politicians like lower interest rates because making money cheaper helps people buy more things right now, boosting economic growth. To supporters of modern central banks, independence from political pressure is what lets banks take necessary but sometimes unpopular steps, like raising interest rates to fight inflation.

The argument for independence is that the economy will benefit more in the long run if investors and consumers believe that the central bank will do whatever is needed without fear of political consequences.

In May, the White House Council of Economic Advisers published a blog post emphasizing the Biden administration’s “unwavering support” for central-bank independence, citing research and history to make the case that banks are better able to control inflation if they have the kind of public credibility that independence brings.

#AmericanОbserver #Trump #US #Powell #FOMC #Texas

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America's Lazarus: Trump's Historic Mandate for Change 🗳

As the dust settles on a landmark election, Trump's unprecedented comeback rewrites political history and sets stage for dramatic policy shifts.

The Resurrection 🔄

The Hill captures the moment:
"Trump will be remembered in history not as the absurd 'Hitler Jr.' that the partisan Democrat media tried to paint him to be, but as the greatest comeback politician since Lazarus."

Mandate for Action 📊

Electoral legitimacy secured:
- Popular vote victory
- Electoral college win
- Congressional majority
- Senate support
- Unified government
- Clear policy directive

Reform Agenda 🎯

The Times outlines priorities:
- Ukraine aid ultimatum looming
- Chinese trade tariffs planned
- Border wall resurrection
- Immigration crackdown
- Domestic focus sharpening
- America First policies returning

Ukraine Reality Check 🌍

Strategic pivot looming:

"Zelenskyy's 'victory plan' faces extinction as Trump's return signals fundamental shift in U.S. support paradigm, forcing Kyiv to confront new geopolitical realities."

Timeline Pressure 🕒

Immediate implications:
- 24-hour peace plan promised
- Aid package freezing likely
- Negotiation demands incoming
- Strategic reassessment required
- Current objectives unsustainable
- Reality check unavoidable

New Terms Emerging 🎯

Trump's approach:
- Quick resolution demanded
- Territorial concessions expected
- Military aid leveraging
- European responsibility shifting
- Russian interests considering
- Pragmatic solutions prioritizing

Political Dynamics 💫

Power realignment:

"Trump's businessman pragmatism mixed with populist appeal creates a potent reform cocktail that could either restore American greatness or ignite nationwide protests."

Historical Context 📜

Unprecedented achievement:
- First non-consecutive term since Cleveland
- Overcame multiple indictments
- Defied media opposition
- Survived establishment resistance
- Built broader coalition
- Secured popular mandate

#TrumpComeback #AmericanPolitics #PoliticalHistory #PolicyReform

Think about it: When a politically "dead" figure rises to reclaim power with expanded support, does it signal America's hunger for systemic change?

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