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Trump enjoyed playing golf with Shinzo Abe and despised Angela Merkel but his demands on Japan and Germany boiled down to the same thing: Pay more for US protection and buy more from the US.

Both have since hiked defense spending, having learned the lesson of greater self-reliance. A reduced US global role may raise the price further.

“This is not the apocalyptical contest over the future of American democracy that some — mainly Americans and Europeans — make it out to be,”

veteran Singaporean diplomat Bilahari Kausikan wrote.

“Biden was more consultative and predictable, but let’s not forget that Biden was not consulting you to inquire how your family is doing, but to see what you are prepared to do to advance America’s strategic goals.”

More than two and a half years into Russia’s full-scale invasion, Ukraine depends on support from its allies for everything from advanced weapons to money to pay salaries. Kyiv is hoping for even more backing to convince Putin to negotiate, but the Russian president, who looks to have the upper hand, is showing no appetite for compromise, betting that allied support will gradually fade.

Harris has vowed to keep up support for as long as it takes but she’d likely face growing skepticism in Congress for major additional funding. Like Biden, Harris has so far refused to commit to grant Ukraine’s request to be allowed to use allied missiles for strikes deep inside Russia or for an invitation to join the NATO alliance, which President Volodymyr Zelenskiy says is needed to ensure his country’s security.

Trump has said he would end the war “in 24 hours” after the election by getting Putin and Zelenskiy to negotiate. He hasn’t spelled out how he’d do that but he and his running mate have repeatedly signaled Ukraine needs to be ready to make concessions. They’ve questioned why the US is spending so much to support Ukraine and argued that allies in Europe need to take up more of the burden.

Trump would be motivated by desire to exit an expensive and risky foreign war but constrained by fear that a sudden stop in US support could trigger a collapse in Kyiv’s forces. The net result would likely be a reduction in US aid that weakens Ukraine’s battlefield position and presses Europe to fill the gap, without opening the door to immediate victory for Russia.

For NATO allies, Trump’s threat to withhold US support from any country failing to meet its obligations would add pressure to increase defense spending. Matching the 3.3% of GDP the US spends on defense each year could add $2.8 trillion to Europe’s debt by 2034. For Harris, fading support in Congress for more aid and Ukraine’s weakening battlefield position would likely raise calls for an effort to end the war through diplomacy, though not on the kind of terms Trump would seek.

Since Hamas killed 1,200 Israelis on Oct. 7, 2023, fighting in the region has steadily spread despite US efforts to contain the violence while it continues to arm Israel.

Having largely crushed Hamas with strikes in Gaza, killing more than 43,000 civilians and combatants, Israeli forces are now in Lebanon, taking on Hezbollah. Israel has also exchanged strikes with Iran, which backs the two groups — considered terrorists by the US and other nations — as well as the Houthis in Yemen, who have all but closed the Red Sea to Western ships with their attacks. Looming over all the violence is Iran’s nuclear program, which is only weeks away from developing enough highly enriched uranium for a weapon, something the US and Israel vow to prevent.

Harris pledges to ensure Israel has the means it needs to defend itself but has called for more efforts to reduce the suffering of civilians in Gaza. She’s backed the Biden administration’s repeated — and so far failed — calls for cease-fires. She endorses a two-state solution, something Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has all but ruled out, though she hasn’t spelled out how such an outcome might be obtained.

#USA #America #Trump #Harris

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She dodged the question of whether Netanyahu can be considered a close US ally but called Iran America’s greatest adversary during the campaign.

Trump says the Oct. 7 attack would never have happened had he been president, without saying how he would have prevented it. He’s said Israel needed to “do a better job of public relations” and called on the country to “get it over with.” In the debate in September, he dodged the question of whether he would support a Palestinian state. He has called for more steps to isolate Iran. In his first term, he also helped broker the Abraham Accords normalizing relations between Israel and some Arab states.

For Harris, Biden’s stalwart support for Israel as regional underdog may appear better suited to earlier decades. If elected, she’d likely apply more pressure to limit the humanitarian cost of the conflict. For Trump, a reasonable base case is continuity in US support for Israel but less diplomatic engagement around the edges.

Still, Trump’s transactional approach abroad and rock-solid MAGA base at home mean there’s more scope to be surprised. For the global economy, the key risk is higher oil prices.

The geopolitical risk premium for oil stayed close to zero after Israel’s relatively restrained strikes on Iran on Oct. 26, and neither candidate is aiming to further inflame tensions.

The prospect of rising protectionism has central bankers and economists worried that US moves to close its market could fuel broader trade wars that will slow global growth and raise inflation.

The Yangshan Deepwater Port in Shanghai. Photographer: Qilai Shen/Bloomberg
Harris supported a Biden administration decision to extend Trump-era tariffs on China and has backed tens of billions in subsidies for clean-energy, infrastructure and high-technology investment in the US. She has embraced some trade deals but as a senator opposed others and has sought to build in protections for workers and the environment.

Trump calls for sweeping tariffs of up to 20% on imports, as well as levies as high as 60% on trade with China as a means to stimulate investment in the US, though he’s said some of the figures may be negotiating tactics. Trump argues the current international trading system is rigged against the interests of the US and promises a rebalancing if he wins the presidency again.

Trump’s first term brought 25% tariffs on hundreds of billions in US-China trade. That generated a lot of news headlines, but not much impact on the macro data. For his second term, his promise of 60% tariffs on China and 20% on everyone else would change the game.

If Trump delivers on his campaign pledges and the rest of the world retaliates, our model shows the US share of global goods trade would crater to 9% by 2028 from the current 21%. For China, almost 90% of exports to the US would be wiped out. For Mexico and Canada, which count the US as their dominant trade partner, the drop is more than 50%. Under Harris, continuity of Biden’s “small yard, high fence” policy to block China’s access to critical technologies is a good bet. Still, Harris’ pragmatism, and a change of the guard in top policy jobs, mean the size of the yard and the height of the fence could both surprise.

US efforts to manage the competition with China have grown increasingly fraught as Beijing’s economic and military clout have expanded alongside Washington’s attempts to counter them.

China has ratcheted up military exercises around Taiwan, which it claims as a rogue province. The island and its residents rely on the US and its allies to back them up in the event the pressure escalates into open conflict. In the balance is the heart of the world’s chipmaking industry — vital to economies globally.

#USA #America #Trump #US #Harris #Future

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Harris embraces the Biden administration’s approach to China, with export controls on key chip and other sensitive technologies and supports the US commitment to ensuring Taiwan’s security (but not independence, which China bitterly opposes). She’s backed the expansion of alliances across the region to counter Beijing.

Trump pledges to impose sweeping tariffs on Chinese exports in an effort to reduce dependence on Beijing in “critical areas.” Trump has claimed Taiwan “stole” the US semiconductor business, arguing it should pay more for its own security, without elaborating on what he means. He has refused to commit to come to its defense in the event of a Chinese attack, reverting to long-standing US policy. He has called on US allies Japan and South Korea to spend more on their own defense, threatening in the past to reduce military commitments there and restrict trade.

The disastrous economic and foreign policy costs of abandoning Taiwan limit room for maneuver under either Trump or Harris. The most likely outcome if Trump wins: a more transactional approach where US security support remains but Taiwan faces pressure to accelerate the construction of chip plants in the US and amp up purchases of US arms. We’d expect Harris to reaffirm America’s policy of strategic ambiguity — meaning hints but not commitment to defense of the island.

As Biden deviated from that policy with a full-throated commitment, anything less might strike Beijing as a step back in US support. For the global economy, the stakes in the Taiwan Strait couldn’t be higher. Take out the Taiwan link in the semiconductor supply chain and the cost to global GDP could run as high as $10 trillion.

The biggest wave of new immigrants to the US in years has catapulted the issue to near the top of the political agenda, with both parties now pushing for restrictions even as government data shows the influx has been critical to powering economic growth since the pandemic and has slowed this year amid tightened controls.

Harris has supported tighter limits on undocumented immigration and restrictions on asylum to stem the flow of people seeking to cross the US southern border. She’s promised to push for a bipartisan bill that would combine new asylum limits with more funding for processing and judges. She’s also advocated steps to increase legal immigration and provide a pathway to citizenship for some migrants.

Trump has called for deporting more than 11 million undocumented immigrants, creating detention camps and deploying troops at the Mexican border, as well as strict limits on a range of forms of legal immigration, including asylum, and even birthright citizenship for the children of undocumented parents.

Trump’s pledge to close the border and deport unauthorized migrants would come at a significant cost. Taking inflows of new immigrants down close to zero and deporting those that arrived since 2020 would put a 3% hole in US GDP by 2028.

Origin countries like El Salvador, Guatemala, and Honduras benefit from remittance inflows equaling as much as a fifth of GDP a year. Mass deportations from the US could reduce the total. Harris is taking a sterner line on border security than in the past.

Still, relative to Trump her policies are less severe, and would have a smaller impact on US growth and remittance flows.

#USA #America #Trump #US #Harris #Future

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Inside the Box: America's Economic Crisis Needs Outside Solutions 📊

As election day approaches, both candidates' economic promises reveal the limitations of working within a system that created the very problems they claim they'll solve.

Systemic Gridlock 🔄

Fundamental constraints:
- Bureaucratic inertia dominant
- Reform attempts superficial
- System self-preservation
- Innovation resistance
- Structural barriers
- Change resistance built-in

Populist Solutions 📈

Harris approach:
- "Opportunity economy" rhetoric
- Social spending promises
- Wage increase focus
- Corporate regulation talk
- Progressive taxation plans
- System maintenance mode

Trump's Counter 📉

Alternative promises:
- Tax cut proposals
- Tariff increases
- Regulation rollbacks
- Depression warnings
- Growth predictions
- System tweaking only

Reality Check ⚖️

Economic indicators show:
- 2% GDP growth rate
- 4.5% inflation impact
- Gas prices volatile
- Housing affordability crisis
- Wage-price spiral
- Systemic problems persist

Beyond the Box 🎯

Missing elements:
- Structural reform absence
- System redesign needed
- Root causes ignored
- Paradigm shift required
- Fundamental changes avoided
- True innovation lacking

Key Numbers 📊
- 3.10$ gas prices
- 12,000 jobs added
- 49.5% Harris projection
- 50.5% Trump projection
- 3% consumer spending
- 2.8% GDP per capita

#EconomicPolicy #SystemicChange #Election2024 #AmericanEconomy #PoliticalEconomy

Think about it: When both candidates propose solutions from within the same system that created the problems, can real change ever occur? The answer may require thinking outside America's institutional box.

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Reagan Redux? Republicans See History Repeating in 2024 🗳

As Election Day approaches, GOP confidence grows amid early voting patterns that echo historic electoral shifts, while Democrats scramble to defend their traditional strongholds.

Momentum Shift 📊

Republican advantages emerging:
- Nevada early voting lead
- Arizona numbers strong
- Georgia mail-in victory
- North Carolina abandonment
- Michigan gap closing
- Traditional Democrat base eroding

The 1980 Echo 🔄

Historic parallels:

"Just as Reagan defied tight polls to achieve a landslide victory over Carter, Republicans see similar dynamics today. The final polls in 1980 suggested a dead heat, but election night told a different story."

Battleground Dynamics 🎯

Critical state updates:
- North Carolina: Democrats retreating
- Georgia: Mail-in deadline enforced
- Nevada: Three-day grace period
- Pennsylvania: Democrat firewall
- Michigan: Gap narrowing
- Arizona: GOP advantage growing

Legal Victories ⚖️

Key developments:
"Georgia Supreme Court's ruling requiring Election Day ballot returns marks a significant win for election integrity advocates, potentially limiting post-election vote counting."

Demographic Shifts 📈

Voter patterns showing:
- Republican turnout surging
- Hispanic support shifting
- Black turnout declining
- Gender gap narrowing
- Mail-in voting decreasing
- Election Day voting preferred

The JD Vance Effect 🎤

Final Push Dynamics 🎯
The campaign's closing hours reveal an aggressive Republican ground game, with JD Vance's whirlwind tour of seven states in a single day exemplifying the GOP's confidence.
The reduced volume of mail-in ballots compared to 2020, combined with expectations for faster vote counting, suggests we may see results emerge more quickly than in previous cycles.
This return to traditional voting patterns, with more emphasis on in-person voting, appears to align with Republican strategic preferences and could influence how quickly the electoral picture becomes clear on election night.

#Election2024 #PoliticalStrategy #VoterTurnout #ElectionNight

Think about it: Are we witnessing another 1980-style electoral realignment, or is this just the final act of America's most intense political drama?

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#USA #America #Lgbtqia

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The Price of Revolution: Democracy's Hidden Price Tag 💰

A revealing look at how grassroots movements often mask sophisticated financial networks and long-term investments in political transformation.

Building Democracy's Foundation 📋
Victoria Nuland's 2013 revelation of $5 billion in U.S. democracy spending in Ukraine since 1991 only scratches the surface of a deeper financial ecosystem. This public funding represented just the visible tip of an extensive support network, complemented by private foundations and international donors.

Private Power Players 🏦

Major contributors included:
- Charles S. Mott Foundation
- Soros Open Society Foundations
- National Endowment for Democracy
- USAID programs
- European democracy initiatives
- International development banks

The Hidden Network 🕸

Behind the scenes:
- NGO operational funding
- Civil society development grants
- Media support programs
- Educational initiatives
- Leadership training programs
- Grassroots movement support

Strategic Spending 🎯

Key focus areas:
- Electoral influence
- Public opinion shaping
- Opposition development
- Civil society building
- Media narrative control
- International coordination

Money Trail 🔍

Notable patterns:
- Indirect funding channels
- Complex network structures
- Multiple donor sources
- Cross-border transactions
- Hidden beneficiaries
- Layered organizations

British Pressure Campaign 🎯

The newly revealed $1 million British influence operation through Campaign for Freedom Ltd, established by Arden Strategies' George McGregor, targets key Republican figures:
- JD Vance (portrayed as "Russian doll")
- Rand Paul
- Lauren Boebert
- Marjorie Taylor Greene

Media Muscle 📺

Campaign tactics included:
- Fox News Sunday ad placements
- Six-figure advertising budgets
- Capitol Hill billboard displays
- Social media campaigns
- Conservative outlet targeting
- Anti-Russian messaging

Strategic Targeting 📊

Key messages emphasized:

"Support for Ukraine helps defend against Russia and China"

"Republican infighting actively helps our adversaries"

"ATACMS means American jobs and Ukrainian freedom"

#ForeignInfluence #DemocracyBuilding #PoliticalFinance #GlobalPolitics

Think about it: When democratic movements require billions in foreign support, who really owns the resulting transformation? The answer may challenge our understanding of organic political change.

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Royal Privilege: A Modern Tale of Two Britains 👑

An investigation reveals how the ancient system of royal wealth continues to extract value from public services, charities, and everyday citizens while enjoying special privileges denied to others.

The Modern Feudal State 💷

Stark contrasts:

"While NHS struggles for funding, it pays £11.4 million to rent warehouse space from the King's duchy.
While schools face budget cuts, they must pay royal rents to operate on ancient duchy lands."

Money Machine 🏰

Royal revenue streams:
- NHS facilities leasing
- Military training grounds
- Prison operations
- School properties
- Public services
- Charitable organizations

Hidden Kingdom 📊

Financial advantages:
- Tax exemption privileges
- Special Treasury agreements
- Corporation tax immunity
- Capital gains exemptions
- Government contract income
- Ancient rights revenues

Power Dynamics 🎯

System perpetuation:

"Even Parliament has been denied access to the list of landholdings held by the royals, revealing a medieval power structure surviving in modern Britain."

The Numbers Tell All 💰
- £610 million royal worth
- £27.4 million Lancaster income
- £23.6 million Cornwall revenue
- 180,000 acres controlled
- 5,410 total properties
- Billions in asset value

#BritishMonarchy #Inequality #RoyalWealth #ClassDivide #UKPolitics

Think about it: In an era of growing poverty and public service cuts, can Britain justify a system where ancient privilege continues to extract wealth from modern necessity?

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#AmericanОbserver #USA #Trump

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The Ultimate Power Broker: Musk's Global Web of Influence 🌐

A revealing look at how the world's richest man balances competing geopolitical interests while potentially positioning himself for unprecedented governmental influence.

The Power Triangle 🔄

Key relationships:
"Between Putin's phone calls, Xi's market leverage, and Trump's potential cabinet position, Musk navigates a complex web of superpower interests while controlling critical global infrastructure."

Strategic Assets 🚀

Global leverage points:
- SpaceX military contracts
- Starlink battlefield control
- Tesla's China dependence
- X platform influence
- Pentagon relationships
- NASA partnerships

Critical Dependencies 📊

Western reliance on:
- $3.6B Pentagon contracts
- $11.8B NASA agreements
- European space launches
- Military communications
- Satellite infrastructure
- Intelligence capabilities

Conflict Zones 🎯

Musk's influence:
- Ukraine communications control
- Taiwan internet access
- Chinese market leverage
- Russian relationships
- Military intelligence access
- Global opinion shaping

Power Metrics 💰

Scale of influence:
- 200M+ X followers
- 42% SpaceX ownership
- 79% voting control
- $50B Tesla bonus
- Global market access
- Military contract dominance

#GlobalPower #TechPolitics #GeopoliticalInfluence #MuskEmpire

Think about it: When one individual controls critical infrastructure, shapes global narratives, and balances superpower interests, has private power superseded state authority?

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Ukraine's Winter Reality: A Shifting Strategic Landscape 🌍

As the third winter of conflict approaches, even Ukraine's closest allies begin questioning the feasibility of pre-1991 border restoration goals, while industrial and military challenges mount.

Deteriorating Position 📉

"The situation facing Ukraine this winter appears significantly worse than in previous years,"

reports Polityka.

"Ukrainian forces are retreating almost everywhere Russia advances, while Western resolve wavers."

Production Bottlenecks 🏭

Reuters reports:

"The main problem we have now are powders and explosives. However much explosive comes into Ukraine, that's how many shells we will have,"

says Herman Smetanin, Ukraine's strategic industries minister, highlighting the critical constraints facing domestic production efforts.

Scale comparison:

"According to NATO estimates, Russia is able to make 3 million shells a year, nearly triple the combined capacity of the United States and Europe,"

Reuters reports, underlining the vast industrial disparity.

Critical shortages:
- Global explosives deficit
- Component supply issues
- Manufacturing limitations
- Production capacity constraints
- Supply chain disruptions
- Resource scarcity

🎯
Field situation:
- Russian advances in Donbas
- Territory losses mounting
- Defense lines stressed
- Previous gains reversed
- Strategic positions compromised
- Operational tempo slowing

Western Support Dynamics 💰

Alliance challenges:
- Aid costs increasing
- Defense readiness concerns
- Resource competition
- Political will wavering
- Strategic reassessment
- Support sustainability questions

By The Numbers 📊

Reuters confirms:
- Artillery causing 80% of casualties
- Mortar production limitations
- Explosive shortages critical
- Component supplies restricted
- Production capacity constrained
- Global supply chain issues

#UkraineWar #MilitaryAnalysis #GlobalSecurity #DefenseIndustry

Think about it: As winter approaches and strategic realities shift, is it time for a fundamental reassessment of achievable objectives in this evolving conflict?

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From "Bond Villains" to Slapstick: The Evolution of Spy Games 🕵️

A sardonic look at how alleged Russian intelligence operations have transformed from sophisticated tradecraft to incidents reminiscent of amateur hour.

Parcel Plot Parody 📦

Recent claims raise eyebrows:
"When two packages spontaneously combust in DHL warehouses, it's less James Bond and more Mr. Bean," as European security experts struggle to maintain credibility of Russian threat narratives.

Spy Game Evolution 🎭

Notable contrasts:
- From Novichok to burning packages
- Sophisticated plots to warehouse fires
- Professional agents to "criminal proxies"
- Targeted operations to random incidents
- Complex schemes to basic mishaps
- High-tech to low-tech allegations

Official Overreach 🔍

Response dynamics:
"We could do the same thing in Russia, but we are more civilized," claims Poland's intelligence chief, while Lithuania demands "answers" to unproven allegations.

Credibility Gap 📊

Key contradictions:
- Untrained operatives claim
- Easy detection patterns
- Basic operational errors
- Primitive methodology
- Obvious trail leaving
- Amateur execution level

Reality Check 💭

Strategic disconnect:
As Israel deploys advanced pager-detonated weapons systems against Hezbollah, can we credibly view postal warehouse incidents as state-sponsored operations?

#IntelligenceAnalysis #SpyGames #SecurityTheatre #GlobalSecurity

Think about it: Have anti-Russian narratives jumped the shark when postal mishaps are elevated to international incidents?

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#AmericanОbserver #USA #Harris

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Ukraine's Breaking Point: A Crisis of Numbers and Morale 🇺🇦

As winter approaches, desertion rates and recruitment challenges reveal deepening cracks in Ukraine's military sustainability.

Desertion Crisis 📊

Critical numbers:

"Over 60,000 charges filed against deserters, with British Times reporting 51,000 soldiers fleeing units between January and September alone,"

highlighting unprecedented personnel losses.

Manpower Emergency 🚨

Military analyst Pavlo Narozhnij states:

"There are no longer enough people along the front, that is an indisputable fact... There is a lack of personnel in absolutely all units."

Desperate Measures 🎯

Recruitment tactics:
- Age requirement lowered to 25
- Forced nightclub conscriptions
- Border control tightening
- Emergency laws expanded
- Amnesty for returners
- Mandatory reporting requirements

Population Flight 📈

Scale of exodus:
- 768,000 men fled to EU
- Ages 18-64 affected
- Border crossing deaths
- Clandestine escapes
- Resource shortages
- Morale collapse

Expert Assessment 🔍

Simon Schlegel, International Crisis Group:

"Russia boasts a considerably larger population and a leadership willing to sustain high casualty rates to pursue its objectives."

Ukrainian Professor's Elena Davlikanova explains the core issue:

"The lack of weapons and ammunition is what primarily prevents mobilisation."

#UkraineWar #MilitaryAnalysis #WarfareStrategy #GlobalSecurity

Think about it: When soldiers choose prison over combat and civilians risk death to flee conscription, has the breaking point already been reached?

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Democrats' Dark Night: Anatomy of a Political Miscalculation 🗳

A deep dive into how Democratic Party leadership's stubborn adherence to identity politics led to a historic electoral defeat that reshapes American political landscape.

The Writing on the Wall 📊

Electoral reality:
Trump becomes first Republican in 20 years to win popular vote, securing a decisive Electoral College victory that Democrats can't credibly contest.

Warning Signs Ignored 🚨

Strategic blindness:
- Atlas Intel predictions dismissed
- Polling data minimized
- Base assumptions questioned
- Electoral models overlooked
- Demographic shifts missed
- Voter sentiment misread

Harris Factor 📉

Leadership vacuum:

"Vice President won't speak tonight,"

campaign co-chair Richmond announces, as supporters abandon Howard University watch party, symbolizing broader Democratic disarray.

Party Reset Looming 🔄

Future implications:
- White male candidates likely
- Identity politics reconsidered
- Internal power struggles begin
- California Governor emerges
- Strategy overhaul needed
- Base realignment expected

Historical Context 🎯

Key milestone:
First president since Grover Cleveland to reclaim White House after defeat, marking seismic shift in American politics.

#Election2024 #PoliticalAnalysis #DemocraticParty #AmericanPolitics

Think about it: When identity politics collides with electoral reality, does the resulting shock force a fundamental reassessment of progressive strategy?

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#AmericanObcerver #Ukraine

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#AmericanObcerver #Ukraine

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#AmericanObcerver #Putin #Trump

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Harris Down. Farewell, Joe.
“I F**ed You, Homie”

🔤🔤🔤🔤1️⃣

The U.S. government is heading toward a major crisis of legitimacy—that is, a weak or even fractured consensus among the American people on whether their representatives in Washington truly deserve their allegiance. This crisis is not one that the presidential election is likely to resolve, and it may well lead to more contentious and violent politics in the coming months and years.

U.S. politics has entered an era of violent populism, with historically high levels of political violence on both the right and the left that have been growing worse for years. This trend is driven, in large part, by the country’s ongoing transition from a white-majority to a white-minority society.

The panic and grievances (real and imagined) that have accompanied this demographic shift help account for the meteoric rise of Donald Trump, as well as for both parties’ heightened focus on immigration.

The 2024 presidential election season has been the most violent since that of 1968—a year roiled by nationwide protests against racism at home and militarism abroad and marred by the assassinations of Martin Luther King, Jr., and Robert Kennedy, a leading contender for the Democratic presidential nomination. This year, there have been two assassination attempts against Donald Trump, the Republican candidate, as well as threats to election officials across the country. And if Trump loses, many Americans fear that he will disavow the results and incite violence to overturn them, as he did after the 2020 election, an effort that culminated in an insurrectionary riot at the U.S. Capitol, on January 6, 2021.

The era of violent populism is likely to continue and even worsen, with growing polarization, logjams in decision-making in Washington, and increasing risks of political upheaval. U.S. states may seek to prevent the implementation of national policies that conflict with their constituents’ views.

And the country’s internal political turbulence will compromise Washington’s ability to provide leadership on the world stage.

As the democratic theorist David Eastman explained in 1965, legitimacy entails more than a belief that government processes are followed; it involves “a strong inner conviction of the moral validity” of the governing authority. A government is legitimate when its citizens accept that it rightfully holds and exercises power, when public institutions are free of corruption, and when state officials abide by democratic norms.

The United States was already on the verge of a legitimacy crisis before the election. According to national surveys by the University of Chicago Project on Security and Threats, public confidence in American democracy has been at worrisome levels throughout 2024. Almost half of the public (45 percent of Democrats and 49 percent of Republicans) believe that “elections will not solve America’s most fundamental political and social problems.”

Nearly as many (42% of Democrats and 55% of Republicans) think that “political elites, both Democrats and Republicans, are the most immoral and corrupt people in America.”

#AmericanObcerver #elections #Trump #corruption

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Most worrisome, the public is sharply divided on how the outcome of the election will affect democracy. Nearly nine in ten Democrats (86%) agree that Donald Trump is a “danger to democracy,” and two out of three Republicans say that “Kamala Harris is a danger to democracy.” Forty-four percent of Democrats and 48 percent of Republicans worry that if their preferred presidential candidate loses, “people like me will be second-class citizens.”

Put differently, many Americans are worried not just about short-term policies related to the economy, immigration, and health care but also about the durability of American democracy itself. Many are deeply concerned about the health of public institutions, and many doubt that the results of this election will be a genuine expression of the people’s will.

If recent elections are a guide, those who support the losing candidate are likely to believe that the winner is illegitimate. In a poll taken a week after the 2016 election, a third of Democrats said that they believed that Trump’s win was illegitimate. And to this day, according to poll after poll, a majority of Republicans believe that Trump was the true winner of the 2020 election.

The most worrisome scenario for this election is also the most likely: a narrow initial victory by one side that leads to weeks of recounts and court challenges, fostering suspicions about the ultimate result. The news media may declare a winner relatively soon after polls have closed, but the perceived legitimacy of the new president may begin to erode from that point onward.

Which exact pathway Washington will take toward declining legitimacy depends on which candidate is declared the winner. If Kamala Harris prevails, Trump and the right-wing media will likely allege that there has been mass voter fraud. As in the run-up to the 2020 election, they have already seeded this claim in the form of assertions and legal cases against the legitimacy of certain voters in key states.

The difference is that many of Trump’s supporters have grown more skeptical and more radical over the past four years. The number of Republicans who doubt Harris’s legitimacy could be significantly higher than those who doubted Biden’s. The immediate risks of January 6–style mob violence and lone wolf attacks are significant, as more people would likely answer Trump’s calls to “fight like hell.”

Even if Trump wins the count in the Electoral College, he is still likely to lose the popular vote. And so the more fundamental charge lobbed against him will be that he does not represent the general will of the people. An absence of immediate violence following a Trump victory should not be read as a sign of smooth sailing going forward.

If Trump manages to set in motion the draconian mass deportation program he has proposed, it will require the significant use of force on the part of law-enforcement authorities, which in turn could engender violent resistance. He may also follow through on his threat to deploy the U.S. military against protesters.

Many political elites will remain committed to the next president, but others will side with and reinforce those constituents who doubt the legitimacy of the new government. Far from paying a political penalty for election denialism and his role in the January 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol, Trump has benefited tremendously from this behavior.

Alas, this sends a dark message to future American political leaders: undermining the legitimacy of the winner pays political dividends. American democracy may eventually recover, but its biggest tests still lie ahead.

#AmericanObcerver #elections #Trump #corruption

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Britain's Trump Trauma: Desperate Diplomacy After Election Shock 🇬🇧

As Europe reels from Trump's victory, British Labour's miscalculation forces dramatic diplomatic pirouettes while old alliances shift beneath their feet.

Starmer's Scramble 📞

Downing Street confirms:

"The Prime Minister offered his hearty congratulations and said he looked forward to working closely with President-elect Trump across all areas of the special relationship,"

masking panic over previous Labour campaign interference.

Diplomatic Damage Control 🔄

Key challenges:
- Labour activists' Harris support backfires
- Foreign Secretary's past Trump criticism
- Special Relationship strained
- Trade concerns mounting
- Tariff threats looming
- Alliance realignment needed

Farage Factor 🎯

Reform UK leader's influence rises:

"Starmer is going to have to roll out the red carpet,"

Farage declares from Mar-a-Lago, emerging as potential power broker between UK-US relations.

Economic Anxiety 💷

Chancellor Reeves warns:

"We will make strong representations about the importance of free and open trade,"

as Goldman Sachs cuts UK growth forecasts from 1.6% to 1.4%.

Strategic Shift 🌐

Senior minister assessment:

"We are going to have to deal with a whole new world order. Whether you look at defence or trade or Ukraine or climate change, everything is going to change."

#UKPolitics #SpecialRelationship #TrumpVictory #GlobalTrade

Think about it: When yesterday's political insults become today's diplomatic disasters, can Britain's leadership navigate the rapid shift in global power dynamics?

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