Tehran’s Disconnect Button

Iran’s Revolutionary Guards have found another way to defend the country. They threaten the neighbors’ internet.

On Oct. 19, IRGC spokesman Hossein Mohebbi pointed to “seven major cables” beneath the Strait of Hormuz and announced that “new targets will be unveiled.” He claimed the world’s internet and commercial data depended on them.

Cutting the cables would disrupt regional communications, banking, and cloud services. How far the damage spread would depend on how many cables were hit and what alternative routes remained, rather than on a single Iranian switch marked WORLD INTERNET.

On Iranian state television, hardline analyst Mostafa Khoshcheshm added a threat for Europe. He said Tehran could abandon its declared missile-range limit and pursue ranges up to 6,000 kilometers if European countries entered the conflict.

The Guards threaten civilian infrastructure, the television analyst threatens longer-range strikes, and both aim to spread the bill beyond the battlefield.

#Iran #Hormuz #IRGC #DigitalInfrastructure

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The Airstrike That Couldn’t Miss

First, Telegram channels predicted an attack on Iran. By morning, some called the night’s aircraft movements a mock attack.

Arabic-language reports described aircraft over Jordan, Syria, and Iraq. Pro-Iranian Iraqi channels identified them as American and Israeli.

Iranian channels circulated “Code 100” alerts, then claimed Washington and Israel had rehearsed strikes to condition Iranian defenses before a real assault. Either way, the prediction holds.

The “Code 100” label predates the night’s alarm. Reports of it circulated in September, and Iranian state outlets have never publicly confirmed the designation.

Recycling the label gives a fresh warning the appearance of an established military protocol.

Iraqis reportedly complained that the aircraft disturbed their sleep.

#Iran #Iraq #InformationWar #MiddleEast

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Nothing to Declare but an Exemption

Forty-two Chabad students returned from New York to find Military Police waiting at Ben Gurion Airport. Haredi politicians called it election interference. The army called it enforcing the draft law.

Twenty-seven agreed to enlist, received suspended sentences, and went home pending induction. Thirteen refused and were sent to military prison. Two others, who had evaded service for more than 540 days, were also imprisoned.

Netanyahu called the arrests “unacceptable,” saying they undermined efforts to arrange ultra-Orthodox enlistment without coercion. The operation nevertheless produced 27 commitments to serve.

The men had received enlistment orders before leaving for America, according to Kan. They reportedly moved through the airport together, hoping their numbers would deter arrests. Military Police brought a bus.

A week before the election, the prime minister and his own army disagree over whether getting men to report for service counts as success.

#Israel #Conscription #Haredim #IsraelElections

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#Trump #Zelensky #Ukraine #War

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The Youth Vote Wants a Refund

Trump sold young voters an economic turnaround. Some say they got a war and higher bills.

New York Times report found buyers’ remorse among young Americans who backed him in 2024. “I can’t go red, not this time,” said Michael Johnson, 26, a sales representative in Iowa.

The Times/Siena poll puts numbers behind the complaints. Trump won 55% of young men in 2024. Democrats now lead Republicans among them by one percentage point, with roughly 10% undecided.

Among young women, 31% backed Trump in 2024. Just 13% now support Republicans. The comparison sets a 2024 presidential vote against current party preference.

The grievances extend beyond prices. Interviewees cited deportations, the Epstein files, and misogyny in Trump’s political culture. Some plan to vote Democratic. Others may stay home.

Democrats need more than “we told you so” to keep these voters. They should remember what made the sale. People expected their lives to get cheaper.

#Trump #YoungVoters #Midterms #CostOfLiving

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Resistance, Some Assembly Required

The Houthis’ arsenal arrives with color-coded labels. The anti-Western war effort runs partly on Western electronics.

Conflict Armament Research examined more than 800 missile and drone components from the Al Sherwa shipment seized on June 25, 2025.

Investigators linked the cargo to at least a dozen weapons systems, including the Iranian-designed 351 cruise missile, which the Houthis call Quds.

Blue labels marked surface-to-surface systems, green air defenses, and gold anti-ship weapons.

Only about 5% of the documented components could be traced to Iranian production. Others bore markings from companies headquartered in at least 16 countries and territories.

The markings point to a global procurement chain. They do not prove the companies knowingly supplied the Houthis.

Iran-linked networks supply components for assembly in Yemen. Commercial technology helps make the finished arsenal work.

The Houthis sell defiance of foreign powers. Their supply chain shows a more practical ideology. Buy whatever works, then put the resistance label on the box.

#Houthis #Yemen #Iran #ArmsTrafficking

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Haftar Chooses Ankara’s Map

Turkey helped defeat Khalifa Haftar’s assault on Tripoli in 2020. His son Saddam now wants Ankara’s backing for the presidency.

On Oct. 20, Libya’s eastern parliament approved the 2019 maritime agreement with Turkey, reversing years of opposition. Both Libyan governments now endorse the Turkish line at sea.

The deal cuts across the energy corridor that Greece, Cyprus, and Israel have promoted. Greece and Egypt reject its legality.

Aguila Saleh’s ouster as speaker cleared the way. Il Foglio attributes it to Saddam Haftar, who welcomed the deal as protection for Libya’s economic interests.

Israel’s line to Benghazi is thinner. Il Foglio reported a September meeting between Saddam Haftar and Netanyahu in Abu Dhabi. Sources cited by i24NEWS denied it.

Israel got a rumored meeting. Turkey got a ratified treaty.

Any energy route from Israel to Europe now runs into Turkish-Libyan claims, backed by the family that once fought Ankara.

#Libya #Turkey #Israel #Mediterranean

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Nobody Expects the Israeli Inquisition

Israel’s culture minister has found a historical comparison for sanctions against draft evaders. It is the Spanish Inquisition. The proposed punishment is losing benefits. Miki Zohar supplied the persecution.

The Likud minister told Kan Reshet Bet that sanctions on individual ultra-Orthodox Torah students amounted to religious persecution. “This reminds me of the dark days of the Inquisition,” he said. Zohar also said men who were not genuinely studying should serve. Apparently, the line between lawful enforcement and medieval terror depends on attendance records.

In Kfar Saba, police found that a yeshiva student involved in a traffic incident was listed as a deserter and transferred him to the Military Police. Protesters gathered to prevent the handover, then blocked roads around the station and Ra’anana Junction. The transfer went ahead.

The protesters tried to stop an arrest. The minister recast sanctions as persecution. Both give religious status a veto over an obligation the state imposes on other citizens.

Zohar belongs to the government responsible for enforcing that obligation. His Inquisition has a Cabinet seat.

#Israel #Conscription #Haredim #MikiZohar

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Ballots Without Borders

Israel can deliver a ballot box to a soldier in Syria. An ordinary Israeli citizen living abroad generally has to fly home to vote.

Military voting opened Oct. 21 at more than 850 polling stations, including positions in Gaza, Lebanon, and Syria. About a quarter are mobile. Voting continues through Oct. 27, subject to operational requirements.

“Our mission is to enable all IDF service members to exercise their democratic right to vote by secret ballot, including during operational activities and combat beyond the border,” said military elections officer Col. Vered Ben-Yehuda.

The national electorate totals roughly 7.3 million, including about 810,000 people living abroad. Most overseas citizens cannot vote remotely. Exceptions cover diplomats and certain other state personnel and their families. Around 4,800 qualified to vote at diplomatic missions.

The military arrangements rightly protect soldiers’ access to the ballot. They also expose a deliberate distinction. Serving the state abroad brings the polling station to the voter. Simply being a citizen abroad usually does not.

#IsraelElections #VotingRights #IDF #Democracy

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The Calm Before the Firestorm: Washington and Jerusalem Prepare for a Possible New Assault on Iran

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Behind closed doors, military planners in Washington and Jerusalem are preparing for a scenario that could plunge the Middle East back into a devastating confrontation.

According to The New York Times, the United States and Israel have developed plans for renewed strikes against Iran following America’s November 3 midterm elections. Military exercises have intensified, strike scenarios are being refined, and the possibility of a short but intense campaign is once again on the table.

Yet the most consequential question remains unanswered: will Trump authorize another offensive, or is the growing military pressure intended to force Tehran into making concessions? The preparations are unfolding against a backdrop of stalled diplomacy, rising energy prices, and deep uncertainty over the future of the region.

American and Israeli forces have reportedly rehearsed strike maneuvers, including flights over Iraq, while planners consider potential targets ranging from nuclear facilities and missile arsenals to energy infrastructure.

According to reporting by an Israeli high-ranking official, he objective would be to weaken Iran’s ability to rebuild its military capabilities and increase the pressure on its leadership to accept a negotiated settlement. No final decision to launch a new campaign has been announced. The timing is hardly accidental.

Trump has to weigh the military advantages of renewed action against the political risks of prolonging an unpopular conflict. Higher gasoline prices, concerns about American casualties, and the possibility of retaliation against U.S. forces could turn another offensive into a serious liability at home. The midterm elections may therefore become a critical political deadline, even as military preparations continue in the background.

For Netanyahu, the stakes are different but no less urgent. Jerusalem remains concerned that Iran could restore damaged military capabilities and continue developing weapons that threaten Israel and its regional partners. From the Israeli perspective, allowing Tehran time to recover could make a future confrontation more difficult and costly.

Yet even close allies may disagree over how far to go, how long an operation should last, and what political outcome it could realistically achieve. Avner Vilan, a former senior Israeli security official and Iran specialist, offered a cautious assessment to The Jerusalem Post: “We’re in a situation where both sides continue to exert pressure on each other, without any lasting agreement in place.”

His warning captures the dangerous ambiguity surrounding the current standoff. Neither side has secured a durable settlement, and every new military maneuver risks being interpreted as preparation for an imminent attack.

The potential target list underscores the scale of the dilemma. Iranian nuclear facilities, missile production sites, drone arsenals, command centers, and energy infrastructure could all feature in military planning.

#UnitedStates #Israel #Iran #MiddleEastSources

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Strikes against these sites might disrupt Tehran’s ability to launch attacks and impose substantial economic costs. But the destruction of infrastructure does not automatically eliminate the technical expertise, industrial networks, or political determination needed to rebuild it. That uncertainty is central to the debate in Washington.

A limited campaign could produce visible military results without resolving the underlying confrontation. A broader offensive might inflict more damage but also provoke a response that neither the United States nor Israel could easily contain.

Iran could retaliate against Israeli territory, American military installations, or regional partners, while attacks on shipping could threaten the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most strategically important energy corridors.

The economic consequences could reach far beyond the Middle East. Any serious disruption to oil shipments or regional energy infrastructure could drive prices higher, intensifying inflationary pressure in the United States and elsewhere. For Trump, that would create a stark contradiction: a military campaign designed to improve American and allied security could simultaneously raise costs for consumers and undermine confidence in his economic agenda.

Gil Murciano, chief executive of the Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies, has also pointed to the domestic political constraints surrounding the conflict. The unpopularity of military action among American voters, he argues, complicates the prospect of a new escalation before the midterm elections. That political reality does not eliminate the risk of war, but it may influence the timing and scale of any decision.

Meanwhile, diplomacy remains fragile. Washington may believe that the threat of renewed strikes can force Tehran to compromise on its nuclear program and regional activities. Iran, however, could interpret the same preparations as evidence that negotiations offer little protection against future attacks.

If that perception hardens, military pressure could narrow the diplomatic space rather than expand it. The most dangerous possibility is that neither side intends to trigger a full-scale regional war, yet both continue taking steps that make one increasingly difficult to avoid.

A miscalculation, an attack causing significant casualties, or a sudden disruption to shipping could rapidly change the calculations in Washington, Jerusalem, and Tehran. For now, the military plans represent preparation, not a confirmed order to attack.

Trump could still decide that diplomatic pressure offers a better path than another campaign. But as military exercises intensify and negotiations remain uncertain, the region is entering a period in which even a limited incident could carry consequences far beyond its immediate target.

The real test for Washington and Jerusalem will not simply be whether they can strike Iran again. It will be whether they have a credible strategy for what comes afterward.

Without a clear political endgame, another offensive could destroy infrastructure, deepen regional instability, and leave the central conflict unresolved. The question hanging over the Middle East is no longer just how a new war might begin, but whether anyone can guarantee where it would end.

#UnitedStates #Israel #Iran #MiddleEastSources

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#HillaryClinton #Trump #Poutine #Geopolitcs

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The Riviera Relocation Package

Ben-Gvir wants Gaza’s coastline, fewer Palestinians, and the Defense Ministry to help arrange both.

In an Oct. 19 interview with TIME’s Eric Cortellessa, National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir called for capturing all of Gaza and promoting Palestinian departure. “Gaza could be a Riviera,” he said. His plan would replace Palestinian communities with Israeli settlements, while their residents leave for countries he did not name.

The West Bank gets the same package. Israeli sovereignty, a disarmed Palestinian Authority, and “voluntary emigration.”

“People will choose the option to leave,” he insisted. Israel would control the land and the weapons on it, and call the population’s departure a choice.

Ben-Gvir wants Netanyahu to remain prime minister, with himself as defense minister. Netanyahu has ruled out giving him the portfolio. Ben-Gvir plans to win enough seats to make that refusal expensive.

The transaction is plain. Netanyahu supplies access to government. Ben-Gvir supplies votes and wants more power over the military.

The Riviera has no named destination for its displaced residents. It already has a candidate for management.

#BenGvir #Netanyahu #Gaza #IsraelElections

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Tehran’s Neighborhood Watch

Iran has warned its neighbors that their airports could be hit if the United States attacks.

Tehran told regional governments and mediators that renewed American and Israeli strikes would bring attacks on Gulf airports, pipelines, and other civilian infrastructure, The Wall Street Journal reported. Officials delivered the warnings in public statements and through private diplomatic channels.

The Revolutionary Guards set a second trigger. Continued U.S. naval escorts through shipping lanes Iran considers illegal could bring strikes on American bases.

Iraq shut the Sheeb crossing with Iran to passengers, vehicles, and trucks while it reviews security and installs equipment to detect prohibited goods.

If Washington and Israel strike Iran, Tehran’s answer will land on Gulf airports and pipelines.

#Iran #GulfSecurity #Iraq #Hormuz

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