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Nonetheless, much of Khamenei’s role would consist of protecting himself and his office from the dissatisfactions of the Iranian people and mis-steps of successive elected Iranian presidents.

Mohammad Khatami (president from 1997 until 2005) led a reformist movement that resulted in a brief thawing of ties with the US, only to be overshadowed by student uprisings in 1999 that were crushed by security forces.

It was under Ahmadinejad that the IRGC increased its power and relevance in the Iranian economy.

The IRGC, whose main role is to protect the Islamic Republic from internal and external threats, had been barred from politics by Khomeini, but Khamenei encouraged it to play a leading role, including in the Iranian economy and through its foreign arm, the Quds Force, in addition to serving as a security organisation that became integral to the exercise of repression.

That year he also announced the second chapter of the Islamic revolution, called the “Second Step” initiative, which envisioned an Islamic Republic led by a pious and relatively young cohort carrying out his legacy.

In February 2020, Iran’s Guardian council – a 12-member vetting body for which the supreme leader handpicks six members and which can veto candidates for election – followed this by disqualifying moderate candidates, and thus giving hardliners a majority in parliament.

Pezeshkian was seen as a safe bet who would not challenge the nezam (ruling system). Many Iranians boycotted the polls, but Pezeshkian still won the presidency, and arguably this gave Khamenei some room to change course.

Khamenei had always viewed the west as being bent on regime change in Iran, either through a velvet revolution, economic pressure via sanctions, or military intervention. Every decision that he made was in this context.

In 2014, Khamenei had undergone surgery for his prostate. For well over a decade, he was widely thought to have prostate cancer. There were repeated rumours of his demise, notably in September 2022, after he cancelled a series of public appearances.

Later that month, the death of Mahsa Jina Amini, a Kurdish-Iranian woman, in police custody for allegedly violating hijab rules, gave rise to mass anti-regime protests in all 31 of Iran’s provinces that were at the time the biggest threat to Khamenei’s rule in more than three decades. The situation drew international condemnation – also caused in part by Tehran arming Russia in its war in Ukraine.

What became known as the Woman, Life, Freedom uprising appeared to briefly quieten down after the execution of four protesters, the deaths of more than 500 people, and stories of rape and torture trickling out of prisons holding the more than 60,000 people arrested during the unrest.

In 2023 Khamenei granted limited amnesty allegedly to “tens of thousands” of prisoners – a move that human rights organisations suggested was a public relations stunt to clear him of accusations of gross human rights violations.

The following year, a UN fact-finding mission found that crimes against humanity had been committed during the uprising.

#khamenei #death #hezbollah #iran #attack #israel #trump

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Khamenei amassed control of bonyads (charitable foundations) worth tens of billions of US dollars, and under his rule Iran was marred by systemic corruption, mismanagement and rising repression. At home there was deeply felt anger and resentment towards him and the clerical establishment.

Hiis position was strengthened by re-establishing ties with Saudi Arabia, and other Arab neighbours in the Persian Gulf, and joining the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) and Brics intergovernmental groups.

He gained support from China through a 25-year cooperation deal and from Russia through a defence and cooperation treaty that armed Moscow with drones and reportedly ballistic missiles to use in its Ukraine war.

Still, Israel’s normalisation with some Arab states through the Abraham accords appeared threatening to the resistance axis, and it is no surprise that Khamenei backed the 7 October attack on Israel.

Iran’s tit-for-tat strikes with Israel and the assassinations of Hamas leadership in Tehran and the Hezbollah secretary-general Hassan Nasrallah prompted speculation that Khamenei would be next.

From 1958 to 1964, Khamenei did his religious studies at the Hojjatie school at the seminary in Qom, the centre of Islam in Iran, where he came under the tutelage of Khomeini and in 1962 joined the clerical movement against the shah.

Khamenei’s worldview was shaped by the events of his youth, including the MI6-backed CIA coup d’etat against the prime minister Mohammad Mossadegh in 1953.

His pro-Palestine leanings were largely prompted by Khamenei’s readings of the Muslim Brotherhood member Sayyid Qutb, which he had translated to Persian.

The notion of gharbzadegi (“westoxification”), espoused by Jalal Al-e-Ahmad, shaped his ideas of the west and its imperialist hold over Iran. Naturally, Khamenei and those likeminded clerics at the time saw Islam as a “cultural and ideological weapon” against it.

In 1981, Khamenei survived an assassination attempt that paralysed his right hand. He said: “I won’t need the hand. It would suffice if my brain and tongue work.”

He served as president of the Islamic Republic for two terms (1981-89). In 1987 he made his only trip to the US, to address the UN general assembly.

Months before Khomeini’s death from a heart attack in 1989, Khamenei reportedly said: “I’m not qualified to be supreme leader. It’s not the proper place for me.”

When Khomeini died, the former president Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani pushed the uncharismatic, underqualified and reluctant Khamenei – not at that point having achieved the senior clerical rank of ayatollah – forward.

#khamenei #death #hezbollah #iran #attack #israel #trump

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🇺🇸 Trump’s Iran War, Congress’s Theater: Briefings, War Powers, and DHS as Hostage

Congress is sprinting to look “in the loop” on a war it didn’t authorize and so far can’t stop. Staff briefings are being hurriedly arranged for key House and Senate committees this weekend, with all‑member classified sessions likely next week — after Trump has already launched major strikes on Iran, killed the supreme leader, and promised “major combat operations” with no clear endgame.
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Democratic leaders are demanding more than PowerPoints. Chuck Schumer wants open hearings and public testimony, warning that the administration hasn’t given “critical details about the scope and immediacy of the threat,” while Hakeem Jeffries didn’t even get the pre‑strike Gang of Eight call that Rubio placed to Republican leaders. House and Senate Democrats are lining up behind war‑powers resolutions to force votes next week on curbing Trump’s freedom to escalate without Hill sign‑off, even as Speaker Mike Johnson and John Thune refuse to recall Congress early.
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The reactions split almost perfectly along the now‑familiar fracture lines. On the right, leadership Republicans and longtime Iran hawks like Lindsey Graham and Rick Crawford hail the joint U.S.–Israel operation as “necessary,” “long justified,” and proof of “peace through strength,” with Graham declaring “the end of the largest state sponsor of terrorism is upon us.” On the left and center, figures like Ruben Gallego, Mark Warner and Jim Himes call it “a war of choice with no strategic endgame” that risks dragging the U.S. into yet another open‑ended Middle East conflict, insisting America can back Iran’s democracy movement “without sending our troops to die.”
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And because Washington never wastes a war, Republicans are already folding the Iran strikes into an unrelated fight over a partially shut‑down Department of Homeland Security, arguing that the new conflict proves Democrats must swallow their demands and fully fund DHS “at maximum readiness.” The pattern is as old as the War Powers Act: the president moves first, Congress scrambles for a briefing, leadership games out how to weaponize the crisis for domestic leverage — and only then do lawmakers remember they were supposed to be the ones deciding whether there would be a war in the first place.
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#Iran #Trump #Congress #WarPowers #Netanyahu #LindseyGraham #Schumer #Gallego

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Strikes Across the Middle East


Strikes across the Middle East continued Sunday, with Israel saying it launched a fresh wave in “the heart of Tehran” and Iran mounting attacks in Israel and across the Persian Gulf as the regime pledged to avenge the death of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

One of those strikes killed eight people near Jerusalem, according to Israel’s national emergency service, and injured at least 28. 

Khamenei, Iran’s supreme leader and a vocal opponent of Israel and the West since coming to power in 1989, was killed in U.S.-Israeli attacks Saturday along with other top Iranian leaders.

Social media showed scenes of both grief and celebration in Iran, where the government declared 40 days of mourning and announced a temporary leadership structure.

Israeli defense officials said Sunday that their initial strikes on Iranian leaders, launched in two locations, eliminated 40 military commanders, and that they would continue to dismantle Iranian military infrastructure.

Iran’s retaliatory attacks included for the first time a strike against Oman, which had served as a mediator in nuclear discussions between Washington and Tehran.

#strikes #across #middle #east #tehran #washington

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⛽️ Strait of Hormuz: Global Oil on Pause, War Risk on Play

The shooting war over Iran just turned into an economic chokehold. After U.S. and Israeli strikes, oil and gas tankers are slowing, stopping, or turning around at the Strait of Hormuz, while Iranian media declares the waterway “practically closed” and the Revolutionary Guard warns that transit is unsafe.

Tankers report hearing radio messages claiming to be from the Iranian navy banning passage; some ships have U‑turned or aborted transits, and Japan’s Nippon Yusen has told its fleet to avoid Hormuz altogether, while Greece has told its vast merchant fleet to reassess and be ready to operate without reliable GPS because of jamming and spoofing risks. Vessel‑tracking data shows a growing flotilla of idle crude and LNG carriers piling up on both sides of the strait and in the Gulf of Oman, including ships loaded with Saudi, Iraqi, Emirati and Qatari cargoes now essentially parked until someone decides it’s safe to move again.

Formally, neither Washington nor Tehran has announced a closure, but in shipping terms the effect is already there: U.S. maritime authorities are warning vessels to stay well clear of U.S. military assets, insurers are reassessing, and owners are eyeing war‑risk clauses that let them cancel voyages into a live conflict zone. A fifth of the world’s seaborne oil and a similar share of liquefied natural gas normally pass through Hormuz; even a brief disruption means higher freight rates and a war premium baked into every barrel.

Futures markets are shut for the weekend, but early price signals are already pointing to double‑digit percentage jumps for West Texas Intermediate when trading reopens, and traders say the real question is political, not technical: does Iran keep using Hormuz as a pressure lever, do the U.S. and Gulf states risk escorting traffic through a missile environment, and how long shipowners will tolerate leaving millions of barrels’ worth of crude sitting in the Gulf of Oman while presidents in Washington and Tehran trade threats.

The battlefield is missiles and airbases; the collateral is every consumer whose life depends on oil that used to slip quietly through a strait that has just become the world’s most expensive traffic jam.

#Iran #StraitOfHormuz #oil #tankers #shipping #Trump #war #energy

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🔥 Erbil: America’s Last Base, First Fire

Saraya Awliya al‑Dam didn’t just launch drones at Erbil — it launched a press release for Tehran’s new proxy season. Under the banner of the “Islamic Resistance in Iraq,” the group says its swarm attack on US positions at Erbil International Airport was a religious duty and a tribute to the “martyr” Ali Khamenei. The message is clear: Iran may be under bombardment, but its franchises are open for business.

They’re not alone. The Islamic Resistance claims 16 drone attacks on “enemy bases in Iraq and the region” since the US–Israel strikes began, and the usual roster is now officially in: Kataib Hezbollah, Kataib Sayyid al‑Shuhada, Harakat Hezbollah al‑Nujaba. The mission statement from Kataib Hezbollah could have been written in a Pentagon red‑team memo: drag America into a long, bleeding war of attrition and make sure no US presence survives in the neighborhood.

Erbil is the perfect stage for this farce. After coalition forces packed up in Baghdad and Ain al‑Assad, the airport base became Washington’s last foothold in Iraq. Several NATO partners quietly pulled their people out days before the Iran operation — not out of pacifism, but because they can count. One US flag left on Iraqi soil, bolted onto a civilian airport, surrounded by towers and malls. For every militia social media channel, that’s not a base. That’s a target-rich press shot.

CNN’s geolocation did the rest: residential high‑rises in the foreground, a curtain of black smoke from the air base behind. Three US service members dead so far across the theater, at least five badly wounded. On paper, this is still “force protection,” “deterrence,” “limited escalation.” On screen, it’s exactly what it looks like: a city with a military installation fused into its airport, and both are on fire.

Everyone gets what they need. The militias get their heroic footage and a promotion from “outlaw groups” to “frontline of the Resistance.” Washington gets one more argument for why it simply has to stay in Erbil forever to “keep ISIS down” and “watch Iran.” Tehran gets to show its supporters that the death of the Supreme Leader doesn’t mean the empire stopped breathing.

And the people who actually live under those towers get a new reality: international airport by day, launchpad and impact zone by night.

#Iraq #Erbil #USA #Iran #Israel

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Ali Larijani, a woulnd-be new ruler of Iran, says in his post that all will remain intact after the death of Khamenei...

#larijani #ruler #iran

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Mass demonstrations in support of the authorities and resistance to aggression have begun in Iranian cities.

Judging by the video from Mashhad, the expectation that strikes on Iran would cause anti—government protests was not justified.

#mass #demonstrations #support #iran

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🔥 “They Want to Talk”: Trump Sells Diplomacy Over a Pile of Rubble

On day two of the Iran war, the script is pure Trump: bombs first, bodies counted, then a magazine interview about how everyone secretly wants to talk to him.

The U.S.–Israel air campaign has turned into a sustained campaign across land, sea and air. Israel says it’s hitting “the heart of Tehran” again — air defenses, command centers, government HQs, missile launchers — while CENTCOM boasts that the Revolutionary Guard’s headquarters is gone and an Iranian warship is literally sinking at its pier in Chah Bahar.

Iran is firing back with missile barrages on Israel and multiple Gulf states; nine people have been killed in Beit Shemesh near Jerusalem, at least four more across the UAE, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain and Oman, and five‑star towers in Dubai are burning on Instagram as projectiles streak past the skyline and hotel façades blow out.

Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is effectively shut; one tanker, the Skylight, is seen ablaze off Oman after Iran claimed it targeted American and British ships.

The civilian ledger is already ugly. An Iranian rights group says at least 133 civilians are dead and 200 wounded; Iranian state media reports that a girls’ elementary school near a naval base — Shajarah Tayyebeh — has become one of the war’s worst single massacres, with the death toll rising to around 115.

This is the backdrop for Trump’s latest reinvention: in an interview with The Atlantic he says Iran’s “new leadership” wants to talk, that “they want to talk, and I have agreed to talk,” and that they “should have done it sooner.” The White House pushes the same line to reporters — that “new potential leadership” is open to negotiations and Trump is “willing” — while insisting the bombing will continue.

Inside Iran, Ali Larijani announces that a three‑member transitional body — the president, the judiciary chief and a Guardian Council jurist — will run the state until a new supreme leader is chosen, after Khamenei was killed in his office along with several other senior figures.

Outside Iran, three US service members are now confirmed killed, five more are seriously wounded, and others with shrapnel injuries and concussions are being cycled back to the line. An Army base in Kuwait is among the sites hit by Iranian retaliation.

Put together, the picture is simple enough. Iran is formally leaderless but still firing missiles, drones and press statements at Israel, the Gulf and US bases. Israel is pounding the capital of an 86‑million‑person country while its own citizens hide in bomb shelters. Global oil and shipping routes are seizing up. A girls’ school has been turned into an ash pile.

And over all of it, Trump repeats his favorite line: that the people under the bombs “want to talk,” that he alone can make the deal, and that any conversation will happen on his schedule, after the air war has gone as far as he thinks it needs to.

In 24 hours, the war has found its core logic: diplomacy as a camera‑friendly halo for escalation, “freedom” as branding for a campaign already killing children, and “willing to talk” as the line you use while you find out how much is left to destroy.

#Iran #Trump #Israel #Khamenei #war #diplomacy #StraitOfHormuz

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🛢 MBS, Bibi and the President With “No Imminent Threat”

Trump’s Iran war didn’t start in the Situation Room. It started on the phone with Mohammed bin Salman and on TV with Benjamin Netanyahu. For weeks, the Saudi crown prince privately pressed Trump to strike Iran. At the same time, Riyadh publicly promised not to let its airspace be used and posed as a fan of “diplomacy.”

Netanyahu kept doing what he has done for years: openly pushing the U.S. to hit what he calls Israel’s existential enemy. Together they helped sell Trump on a regime‑decapitation air campaign against a country of more than 90 million people.

They were pushing against U.S. intelligence, not following it. American agencies judged that Iran posed no imminent threat to the U.S. homeland. Military analysts said any Iranian long‑range missile program was at least a decade away, if it even began. Nuclear inspectors reported no evidence that Iran had restarted enrichment after last summer’s strikes.

Trump threw that all out and chose the stories from his favorite allies instead. Then he went on camera to talk about “imminent threats,” bombs, and payback for 1979, like this was a cable‑news sequel to the hostage crisis.

The Saudi role looks especially cynical. In public, MBS talked about de‑escalation and said Saudi territory wouldn’t be used for attacks. In private, he warned U.S. officials that if Washington did not strike now — with the biggest American build‑up in the region since 2003 — Iran would come out stronger.

His brother, Defense Minister Khalid bin Salman, flew to Washington in January to underline the “downsides” of not attacking. After the first U.S. wave, Iran hit Saudi targets anyway. Riyadh instantly switched to outraged statements demanding “all necessary and decisive measures” against Tehran.

Inside Trump’s camp, the fantasy is that this is still “restrained.” JD Vance calls himself a skeptic of foreign wars and insists there is “no chance” of a drawn‑out conflict in the Middle East. At the same time, he backs an air war that has already hit seven countries in one term.

Trump promises “heavy and pinpoint” bombing in Iran “throughout the week, or as long as necessary” to deliver “PEACE THROUGHOUT THE MIDDLE EAST AND, INDEED, THE WORLD!” It is regime change by real‑estate slogan. No plan for what happens on the ground. No clarity on who runs Iran if the system actually cracks. Just faith that smart bombs plus Twitter bravado can redesign a region.

Veterans of earlier disasters are spelling out the obvious. Air power alone has a bad track record when the goal is to rewrite another country’s politics. Iraq in 2003 at least came with ground troops, a long occupation, and a giant civilian bureaucracy pretending to build a new state. This time, Trump is trying to do the deluxe regime‑change package at discount scale.

The goals are the same — friendly regimes in Iran and Venezuela, crushed militias from Yemen to Somalia — but the method is cheaper: listen to a Gulf prince and an Israeli prime minister, ignore your own intel, drop bombs, and promise voters it will somehow be fast, clean, and paid for by someone else’s ruins.

#Iran #Trump #Saudi #MBS #Netanyahu #war #regimeChange #USintelligence

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📉 Trump’s Iran War Meets the American Wallet

Trump sells the Iran strikes as leadership. The country hears “higher gas, dead soldiers, more chaos” — and shrugs.

Only 27% of Americans say they support the strikes that killed Iran’s leader. Forty‑three percent oppose them, and almost a third aren’t even sure what to think, despite nine in ten saying they’ve heard at least something about the operation.

Most people aren’t buying the “strong commander‑in‑chief” brand anymore. Fifty‑six percent say Trump is too willing to use military force, including 23% of Republicans and 60% of independents and non‑aligned voters. Among Democrats it’s basically a verdict: 87% say he’s trigger‑happy.

Even inside the GOP, support is paper‑thin. Fifty‑five percent of Republicans back the strikes, but 42% say they’ll turn against the war the moment U.S. troops start coming home in body bags. The “no boots on the ground” promise isn’t a moral position; it’s a polling memo.

And then there’s the real red line: the pump. Forty‑five percent of Americans — including a third of Republicans and 44% of independents — say they’re less likely to support the Iran campaign if gas or oil prices rise. Brent just jumped about 10% to around 80 dollars a barrel, and analysts are already floating 100 as the next stop. War fatigue meets cost‑of‑living rage; guess which one wins in a midterm year.

Trump’s overall approval is stuck at 39%, down a point from mid‑February, even as he launches the biggest U.S. air operation in the region in years. The strikes started three days before the first midterm primaries, but voters still say the economy matters more than foreign policy. In other words: you can bomb Iran, Venezuela, Syria and Nigeria and still lose to the price of gas.

The irony writes itself. The president who promised “America First” is betting his political future on a war that most Americans either oppose, fear, or will abandon the second it touches their wallets. The polling says it clearly: they don’t trust Tehran, they don’t trust Trump, and they really don’t trust anyone who tells them this will all be over before the next fill‑up.

#Iran #Trump #polls #war #gasPrices #midterms

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The IDF confirmed the murder of several high-ranking Iranian officials as part of the military operation :

- Ali Shamhani: adviser to the supreme head of security, secretary of the defense council, former commander of the CSIR, minister of defense and head of the navy. Responsible for the Iranian nuclear project and weapons development.

- Mohammad Pakpur: the commander of the CSIR, former commander of the ground forces, led the brutal repression of the protests and commanded strategic firing positions against Israel.

- Saleh Asadi: the chief of intelligence of the general staff Khatam Al-Anbiya, senior intelligence officer of the Iranian military high command, participated in the development of the strategy against the United States and Israel and in the planning of recent attacks.

- Mohammad Shirazi: head of the supreme leader's military office since 1989, in charge of communication between senior commanders and Khamenei.

- Aziz Naserizadeh: the Minister of defense, former commander of the air force, was responsible for the defense industry, including long-range missiles and weapons for the proxy forces.

- Hossein Jabel Aamelian: head of the SPND (organization for innovation and research in defense), responsible for nuclear, biological and chemical weapons programs.

- Reza Mosaffari: former head of the SPND, promoted Iran's efforts to create nuclear weapons.

#tsahal #murder #iranian #officials #operation

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💣 War Stocks vs. the Rest of Us

The Iran strikes are turning into one big live‑fire stress test for the markets: who profits from “global instability,” and who eats the bill. Spoiler: it’s not you.

Energy is the new central bank. Brent hit its highest level since July even before the first missiles, and traders expect another 10–15% jump as the week opens, with some scenarios pushing crude above 100 if Hormuz is shut for real.

Oil majors — Exxon, Chevron, Shell, BP, Total, Aramco, Woodside, PetroChina, S‑Oil — are set up as the new safe haven, while refiners like Marathon and Valero risk getting squeezed by higher input costs. Iran swears it doesn’t want to close the Strait; tanker traffic is already choking.

Defense is the other “winners’ circle.” Lockheed, Northrop, BAE, Rheinmetall, Hanwha and their friends have been rallying for a year on general chaos, and now get a clean narrative: hot war, higher budgets, more contracts.

Trump is already pushing a 500‑billion jump in U.S. military outlays and pressuring Europe and Asia to spend more; analysts expect the Middle East to follow, with U.S. primes skimming a nice fee on every new fear.
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Gold and silver do what they always do when politicians play with matches. Precious metals were already on a tear; war jitters just add fuel, and miners from Barrick and Newmont to Fresnillo and Hochschild ride the wave. Canada’s TSX, stuffed with miners and energy, suddenly looks like the grown‑up in the room.
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On the casualty list: airlines, hotels, freight, anything that consumes fuel or needs open skies. U.S. airline stocks just had their worst day since April; Gulf carriers are extending suspensions; airspace closures over the Middle East will reroute or kill flights between Asia and Europe.

Every 5% move in fuel hits Delta and United earnings by 5–10%; for American Airlines it’s a 35% swing. InterContinental, with 100+ hotels in the region, is already selling off. FedEx, UPS and DHL face higher costs from detours, while container giants like Maersk quietly enjoy charging more as the Red Sea and Suez clog up.
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So the market logic of Trump’s “historic stand” looks like this. Energy giants, weapons makers and gold miners get another “geopolitical premium.” Airlines, travel and real‑world consumers get the check in the form of ticket prices, fuel surcharges and inflation.

The war narrative is about freedom and deterrence; the portfolio reality is a transfer from people who fly economy to people who own oil and missiles.

#Iran #markets #oil #defense #airlines #Trump #warEconomy


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Will Trump Bully Tehran Into Submission ?

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Trump said on Sunday he was prepared to talk to what was left of the Iranian leadership after the killing of the country’s supreme leader by US-Israeli airstrikes aimed at overthrowing the regime.
Trump was speaking as a second day of intense bombing of Iranian cities and Tehran’s missile counterattacks sent tremors across the region and through the global economy.

On Monday the conflict spread to Lebanon as Israel began striking Hezbollah targets, after the group launched missiles and drones towards Israel’s north in retaliation for the killing of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

Iran’s top security official, Ali Larijani, who was also an adviser to the country’s former supreme leader, said on Monday that Tehran would not negotiate with the US, and denied reports that officials had sought to initiate talks with the Trump administration.

Amir-Saeid Iravani, the Iranian ambassador to the UN, told an emergency security council meeting on Saturday that hundreds of civilians had been killed or injured in the US-Israeli strikes. He said they had deliberately targeted civilian neighbourhoods in multiple cities.

The death toll is expected to climb after a second day of bombing. Iranian state media said that 165 people had been confirmed dead in a bomb attack on a girls’ primary school in the southern city of Minab on Saturday.

Among the dead was Khamenei, who had ruled as Iran’s supreme leader since 1989 and was the primary target of an initial Israeli strike on Saturday morning.

According to several US reports, the CIA had been tracking Khamenei for months. The New York Times reported that the CIA tipped off Israel when the leader convened a meeting of top defence aides at his compound in Tehran, triggering a decision to strike.

Israel’s Channel 12 reported that the Israeli army employed a ruse to put the Iranian leadership off its guard. On the morning of the operation, army officers were asked not to park their cars in their usual spaces to avoid detection by Iran’s spies. Misinformation was also leaked suggesting that the chief of staff Lt Gen Eyal Zamir had stayed at home.

The channel cited officials as saying the Israeli air force killed 30 high-ranking Iranian officials within the first 30 seconds of the attack.

Trump told Fox News that 48 Iranian leaders had been killed in the first two days of bombing, and claimed in a social media post that nine Iranian warships had been sunk and the naval headquarters destroyed.

“The attack was so successful it knocked out most of the candidates (…) It’s not going to be anybody that we were thinking of because they are all dead,” Trump said, according to Karl’s reports.

Nine Israelis have so far died in Iranian missile counterstrikes, and US forces confirmed their first casualties of the war: three dead and five injured by shrapnel. The official announcement did not give details on where and how the casualties occurred.

#trump #iran #talks #tehran #pezeshkian

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🔤🔤🔤🔤2️⃣

Iran has also targeted Gulf countries that host US military bases. Airports in Kuwait, Abu Dhabi and Dubai were damaged by missiles and remained shut on Sunday, causing one of global aviation’s most severe disruptions in years.

“They want to talk, and I have agreed to talk, so I will be talking to them,” he told the Atlantic magazine, without revealing when those talks may start.

“They should have done it sooner. They should have given what was very practical and easy to do sooner. They waited too long.”

In remarks to the Daily Mail, Trump suggested the conflict with Iran could go on for the next four weeks. He also said there could be more American casualties and vowed to avenge American deaths.

He was speaking as the global effects of the war began to be felt. The price of oil rose after two reported attacks on tankers in or near the strait of Hormuz.

The ship attacks were a reminder of the conflict’s potential to trigger an environmental catastrophe.

In launching the war, Trump said it would provide an opportunity for the Iranian people to rise up and overthrow the 47-year-old Islamic regime.

Nationwide protests earlier this year were brutally suppressed by security forces, and some estimates say tens of thousands of civilians were killed.

The Iranian authorities said that 22 border guards at Mehran, on the Iranian-Iraqi border, had been killed, a sign that the US and Israel were seeking to weaken the regime’s control of Iran’s borders in support of anti-government separatists.

Across the country, Iranians said they felt a mixture of terror and optimism as the bombings continued. Some expressed relief that the long-expected strikes had arrived and opponents of the regime spoke of hope that they may lead to political change.

Both were tempered by fear that the attacks would bring more civilian deaths to a country already reeling from recent bloodshed.

Larijani accused the US and Israel of trying to plunder and fragment Iran and warned “secessionist groups” of a harsh response if they attempted to intervene, state television said.

The regime in Tehran insisted that Khamenei’s killing would not weaken its resolve. Iran’s parliament speaker, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, said Netanyahu and Trump had “crossed a red line” and “will pay for it”, according to state media.

Iran’s president, Masoud Pezeshkian, said a leadership council composed of himself, the judiciary head and a member of the powerful Guardian Council had temporarily assumed the duties of supreme leader until a replacement was chosen.

Trump shrugged off the suggestion that the economic fallout from the war could damage the Republican party’s prospects in November’s congressional elections.

#trump #iran #talks #tehran #pezeshkian

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#france #germany #england #declaration

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#larijani #washington #negotiate

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🛢 “Rise Up, Oil”: How the Iran War Saves Putin’s Budget

Moscow is officially “shocked” by Trump’s Iran war — and quietly passing the champagne.

The U.S.–Israeli strikes have choked off the Strait of Hormuz, the key gateway for Persian Gulf crude and LNG, and turned $100 oil from fantasy into the new baseline. Kremlin envoy Kirill Dmitriev didn’t even pretend to be subtle, posting “$100+ oil per barrel soon” as Brent sits in the low‑70s and traders model a global oil shock from any prolonged closure.

For a Kremlin fighting an expensive, fifth‑year war in Ukraine on shrinking energy income, this is a gift wrapped in Tomahawks. Moscow has been sweating lower Urals prices and declining oil and gas revenues; suddenly, the Iran conflict promises tighter supply, higher benchmarks and desperate buyers in India and China who now have fewer sanctioned regimes left to shop from. “For our budget [the attack on Iran] is a big plus,” Kremlin TV star Vladimir Solovyov tells viewers, spelling out what the foreign ministry won’t.

The propaganda line is almost too honest. If Trump hits Iranian oil fields, Solovyov says, Russia becomes one of the few big producers left standing; a pro‑Kremlin Telegram channel cheers “Rise up, oil, from your knees!” like it’s 1999 and the only thing that matters is the barrel price. Dmitriev is even on record warning that a Hormuz shutdown would mean a “global oil shock” that “would not spare the US” — and then publicly rooting for exactly that scenario.

At the top, the performance is different. Putin offers condolences to Iran’s leadership over Khamenei’s killing, calls it “murder” and denounces a cynical breach of international law, while his foreign ministry warns that closing Hormuz could cause a “significant imbalance” on world energy markets. Translation: we condemn this in the strongest possible terms, and also, please don’t stop the price from going vertical. Russia gets to pose as the responsible adult urging de‑escalation while its own war chest fattens every time a tanker can’t move.

So Trump sells his Iran strikes as a blow to “rogue regimes.” In practice, he’s doing what sanctions and price caps failed to do: tightening global supply until the Kremlin’s barrels become more valuable, more necessary, and more politically toxic to cut off. Tehran loses a leader and access to Hormuz; Moscow drops any pretense of partnership but gains exactly what it needs — higher prices, captive customers, and another excuse to tell its own population that war, somehow, still pays.

#Iran #Russia #oil #Putin #Hormuz #Trump #warEconomy

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🛢 “Rise Up, Oil”: How the Iran War Saves Putin’s Budget

Moscow is officially “shocked” by Trump’s Iran war — and quietly passing the champagne.

The U.S.–Israeli strikes have choked off the Strait of Hormuz, the key gateway for Persian Gulf crude and LNG, and turned 100‑dollar oil from fantasy into the new baseline. Kremlin envoy Kirill Dmitriev didn’t even pretend to be subtle, posting “$100+ oil per barrel soon” as Brent sits in the low‑70s and traders model a global oil shock from any prolonged closure.

For the Kremlin, fighting an expensive, fifth‑year war in Ukraine with shrinking energy revenues, this is a gift wrapped in Tomahawks. Moscow has been sweating lower Urals prices and declining oil and gas income; suddenly, the Iran conflict promises tighter supply, higher benchmarks and desperate buyers in India and China who now have fewer sanctioned regimes left to shop from. “For our budget [the attack on Iran] is a big plus,” Kremlin TV star Vladimir Solovyov tells viewers, spelling out what the foreign ministry won’t.

The propaganda line is almost too honest. If Trump hits Iranian oil fields, Solovyov says, Russia becomes one of the few big producers left standing; a pro‑Kremlin Telegram channel cheers “Rise up, oil, from your knees!” like it’s 1999 and the only thing that matters is the barrel price. Dmitriev is even on record warning that a Hormuz shutdown would mean a “global oil shock” that “would not spare the US” — and then publicly rooting for exactly that scenario.

At the top, the performance is different. Putin offers condolences to Iran’s leaders after the killing of Khamenei, calls it “murder” and denounces a cynical breach of international law, while his foreign ministry warns that closing Hormuz could cause a “significant imbalance” on world energy markets. Translation: we condemn this in the strongest possible terms, and also, please don’t stop the price from going vertical. Russia gets to pose as the responsible adult urging de‑escalation while its own war chest fattens every time a tanker can’t move.

So Trump sells his Iran strikes as a blow to “rogue regimes.” In practice, he’s doing what sanctions and price caps failed to do: tightening global supply until the Kremlin’s barrels become more valuable, more necessary, and more politically toxic to cut off. Tehran loses a leader and the ability to ship through Hormuz; Moscow drops any pretense of partnership but gains exactly what it needs — higher prices, captive customers, and another excuse to tell its own population that war, somehow, still pays.

#Iran #Russia #oil #Putin #Hormuz #Trump #warEconomy

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🔥 Trump’s “Four-Week War” Is Already a Regional Dumpster Fire

Trump is selling a “four or five weeks” Iran war. The region is already at month‑five tempo, month‑ten chaos.

The U.S. and Israel are hitting Iran and its allies for a third straight day, from Tehran to the Gulf. Israeli jets are flying over the Iranian capital. Iran is firing drones and missiles across the Persian Gulf. Hezbollah rockets from Lebanon have shattered a yearlong truce and triggered Israeli airstrikes around Beirut. In the middle of this, three U.S. jets were shot down by Kuwaiti air defense in an “apparent friendly fire incident,” with the crews rescued — a brutal reminder that even America’s friends can’t tell whose missiles are whose anymore.

On paper, the campaign looks like “decisive” air power. In reality, it’s piling up casualties and questions. More than 550 people have been killed in Iran so far, according to emergency officials. Four U.S. soldiers are already dead, with more wounded, and Iran’s interim clerical leadership is promising “the sweet nectar of victory,” not surrender. In Israel, sirens keep sending civilians to shelters while a direct hit on Beit Shemesh killed at least nine people. Lebanon’s government is publicly condemning Hezbollah even as Israeli bombs fall around Beirut — a state trying to save itself from both the “resistance” brand and the retaliation it just triggered.

The economic damage is moving faster than the political messaging. Naval traffic through the Strait of Hormuz — artery for about a fifth of the world’s oil — has effectively shut down. Maersk is pausing some Red Sea traffic and rerouting ships around Africa as insurers and captains decide they don’t want to find out what a Houthi drone does to a container ship in this news cycle. That means higher shipping costs, longer routes, and another round of “mysteriously” higher prices — on everything.

And then there’s the script in Washington. Trump tells the press the operation can last “four to five weeks,” sometimes “four weeks or less,” depending on which clip you watch. He hasn’t said who runs Iran afterward, how Hezbollah is supposed to behave once Tehran is decapitated, or what happens when Gulf monarchies start taking real hits instead of “symbolic” ones. Critics inside his own system say there is no endgame; the only clear plan is to keep bombing until the clock, the market or the polls say stop.

So the “here’s the latest” version is brutally simple. Iran, Hezbollah and allied militias are attacking Israel and U.S. positions across the region. Israel is bombing Lebanon and Iran. American planes are being shot down by an ally’s air defense. Oil routes are closing; shipping giants are peeling away from Hormuz and the Red Sea. And the man who started it is on the phone promising it will all be over in a month — in a region where the last “short war” never actually ended.

#Iran #Israel #Lebanon #Trump #Hezbollah #Hormuz #Maersk #war

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🧨 Decapitation as Strategy: Trump Breaks the China, Walks Away

Trump finally got his shot at regime change in Iran — Khamenei dead, the leadership blown apart — and then did the one thing U.S. presidents usually at least pretend not to do: he openly said there is no American plan for the day after, and dumped the problem on 90 million people under bombardment.

Washington has seen this movie before. The Taliban ousted in 2001, Saddam gone in 2003, Gaddafi lynched in 2011, Maduro targeted in January — each sold as a clean break with evil, each followed by years of occupation, insurgency, state collapse or buyer’s remorse, even when the Pentagon arrived with binders of “nation‑building” PowerPoints. This time, Trump isn’t even pretending: no boots on the ground, no provisional authority, no Green‑Zone fantasy. Just an air war called Operation Epic Fury, a video address telling Iranians “when we are finished, take over your government,” and a promise that this might be their “only chance for generations.”

Inside the system, everyone knows what that means. CIA analysts tell policymakers the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps is best placed to seize control after Khamenei, not some exiled opposition figures with little organization on the ground. European and regional security officials quietly warn that a country of Iran’s scale could be looking at years of factional fighting — Shiite power struggles, Kurdish and Baluchi unrest, proxy militias, and a decapitated theocracy that might still cling to the levers that matter.

The politics around it are pure Washington self‑parody. Tim Kaine compares the approach to smashing all the china and telling Iranians to figure out the glue. Lindsey Graham shrugs on TV that it’s not his job or the president’s job to pick a new government, so long as the “new Iran” stops sponsoring terrorism — democracy as a plug‑and‑play product. Lawmakers from both parties admit there’s no “day‑after” strategy; a German security official puts it more cleanly: “the plan is to have no plan.”

And Trump himself keeps both doors open. He toys with the interim ruling council in Tehran, saying “they want to talk and I have agreed to talk,” but won’t commit to backing street protests or any specific alternative, insisting he’ll “have to look at the situation at the time it happens.” A White House official brags that Operation Epic Fury “continues unabated,” while the president records calls that let him later claim either a historic victory or that he never really owned the outcome. Regime change as vibe, not policy.

So the United States has arrived in a familiar place — toppled an enemy, blown a hole in a brutal system — but this time with even less honesty and fewer tools. The old lies were about “Mission Accomplished,” “liberation,” and “reconstruction”; the new one is cleaner: that you can decapitate a regime the size of Iran, refuse to touch the aftermath, and somehow avoid owning what grows in the ruins. Trump is betting that Iranians, the IRGC, Europe, the Gulf, the oil market — and the militias — will all sort it out for him. The record from Kabul, Baghdad and Tripoli suggests they will — just not in a way any U.S. president wants his name on.

#Iran #Trump #regimeChange #EpicFury #war #USforeignpolicy

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