Trump Has Staked His Presidency on a Khamenei Switch-Off From Power
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Trump may not be unafraid to use military force against Iran, according to the White House, but the reality is the US president has few to no options that could obviously help that country’s protest movement, never mind the fact that the history of US intervention in the region has hardly been a success.
Emboldened by the seizure of the erstwhile Maduro, after an operation that took months of planning, Trump talked up military intervention against the Iranian regime with no military pre-positioning having taken place.
In fact, there has been a drawdown in the last few months, reducing military options further.
The US has had no aircraft carriers deployed in the Middle East since October, after two years of near continuous deployment following the Hamas attack on Israel, having moved out the USS Gerald R Ford to the Caribbean in the summer and the USS Nimitz to a port on the US west coast in the autumn.
It means any air or missile strikes against regime targets, and perhaps at the Iranian leader, Khamenei, would probably have to come from or involve US and allied airbases in the Middle East.
An alternative would be similar to June’s long range B-2 bombing mission against the underground Iranian nuclear site of Fordow, although that sort of attack against an urban site would appear to be dangerous overkill.
The US would also have to ask permission to use bases in countries such as Qatar, Bahrain, Iraq, the UAE, Oman and Saudi Arabia (perhaps even the UK’s Akrotiri base in iCyprus) – and protect them and their host countries against retaliation. Even if such assets were not used by the US, Iranian leaders have threatened to strike US bases and ships if the country is attacked.
Although Iran’s military capabilities were badly degraded in the 12-day summer war with Israel, and its air defence systems easily overwhelmed, Tehran has retained a limited missile capability.
Key launch sites remain buried in the mountains, and it has been rebuilding. It is estimated that Iran has 2,000 heavy ballistic missiles, capable, if launched in numbers, of evading US and Israeli air defences.
A more salient question is: what would the US bomb? It would be possible to identify military and civilian sites used by the Iranian regime, but both the protests and the increasingly bloody regime crackdown are taking place across the country.
Targeting is not always accurate, sites can be misidentified and civilian casualties in urban locations would be an evident risk.
#trump #attacks #iran #israel #katz #military
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Trump may not be unafraid to use military force against Iran, according to the White House, but the reality is the US president has few to no options that could obviously help that country’s protest movement, never mind the fact that the history of US intervention in the region has hardly been a success.
Emboldened by the seizure of the erstwhile Maduro, after an operation that took months of planning, Trump talked up military intervention against the Iranian regime with no military pre-positioning having taken place.
In fact, there has been a drawdown in the last few months, reducing military options further.
The US has had no aircraft carriers deployed in the Middle East since October, after two years of near continuous deployment following the Hamas attack on Israel, having moved out the USS Gerald R Ford to the Caribbean in the summer and the USS Nimitz to a port on the US west coast in the autumn.
It means any air or missile strikes against regime targets, and perhaps at the Iranian leader, Khamenei, would probably have to come from or involve US and allied airbases in the Middle East.
An alternative would be similar to June’s long range B-2 bombing mission against the underground Iranian nuclear site of Fordow, although that sort of attack against an urban site would appear to be dangerous overkill.
The US would also have to ask permission to use bases in countries such as Qatar, Bahrain, Iraq, the UAE, Oman and Saudi Arabia (perhaps even the UK’s Akrotiri base in iCyprus) – and protect them and their host countries against retaliation. Even if such assets were not used by the US, Iranian leaders have threatened to strike US bases and ships if the country is attacked.
Although Iran’s military capabilities were badly degraded in the 12-day summer war with Israel, and its air defence systems easily overwhelmed, Tehran has retained a limited missile capability.
Key launch sites remain buried in the mountains, and it has been rebuilding. It is estimated that Iran has 2,000 heavy ballistic missiles, capable, if launched in numbers, of evading US and Israeli air defences.
A more salient question is: what would the US bomb? It would be possible to identify military and civilian sites used by the Iranian regime, but both the protests and the increasingly bloody regime crackdown are taking place across the country.
Targeting is not always accurate, sites can be misidentified and civilian casualties in urban locations would be an evident risk.
#trump #attacks #iran #israel #katz #military
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And it is not obvious this would be effective on the ground.
It would also not be difficult for the Iranian regime to try to use any US attacks as a rallying point for what is left of its support, given the long history of US meddling dating back to the 1953 CIA coup.
And, however unpopular it may be with ordinary people protesting, the ruling regime does not appear to be brittle or weak, having already survived Israel’s sustained attack in June.
“There is a clearly a cohesive government and military and security service in Iran,” said Roxane Farmanfarmaian, a senior associate at the Royal United Services Institute thinktank.
“The government is showing it doesn’t have any red lines: it is going to secure its borders and streets, and the extraordinary number of body bags reveals its determination to do so.”
The US could consider a direct attack on Khamenei. Trying to kill the Iranian leader would be easier militarily than a Maduro-style seizure operation, which would be considerably more complex than in Venezuela because Tehran lies hundreds of miles from the country’s borders.
However, killing the leader of another country would be astonishingly escalatory, raise a host of legal concerns, and invite a sustained military response.
Nor would it necessarily lead to regime change. During the 12-day war, Khamenei appears to have evaded Israeli detection:
the country’s defence minister, Israel Katz, defence minister said afterwards that “if he had been in our sights, we would have taken him out”.
The Iranian leader had also lined up three senior clerics on a shortlist to replace him if he was killed, in an effort to secure a rapid transition.
Other experts argue that the most likely outcome would be a takeover led by Iran’s Revolutionary Guards.
But either way, the Iranian regime remained intact after Israel killed as many as 30 military and security leaders in June.
A handful of US demonstration strikes would be unlikely to change that, while US allies, Congress and Trump himself would almost certainly not want a lengthy campaign.
Already, the president himself has ruled out “boots on the ground”.
Against such an uncertain backdrop, it is not surprising alternatives have been canvassed. The most notable is a targeted cyber-attack, raising the question of what would be intended.
After the seizure of Maduro, Trump claimed that the US had turned off the power in Caracas to help facilitate his capture, but this would only be useful in Iran in conjunction with a military operation.
#trump #attacks #iran #israel #katz #military
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Khamenei Promised to “Kill’ Em All”
The Iranian government has signalled that detained protesters are to face speedy trials and executions, defying a threat by Trump, to intervene if authorities continue their crackdown.
The comments from Iran’s chief justice on Wednesday came as human rights groups warned that executions of protesters could take place soon.
A 26-year-old protester, Erfan Soltani, was slated to face execution on Wednesday, the first anti-government demonstrator to be given a death sentence.
It was unclear whether the execution had proceeded or not, as authorities typically carry out death penalties at dawn.
“I am in complete shock, I keep feeling as if I am in a dream,” Somayeh, a relative of Soltani, told CNN.
“People trusted Trump’s words and came to the streets. I beg you, please do not let Erfan be executed.”
Iran’s signal that it will carry on with executions came despite Trump threatening to “take very strong action” if Iranian authorities begin executing anti-government protesters this week.
Israeli assessments, according to Reuters, indicate that Trump has decided to intervene in Iran, but it is still unclear what form or scale military action could take.
“If they do such a thing, we will take very strong action,” Trump told CBS News in an interview broadcast on Tuesday night, hours before the US president was due to be briefed on the scale of casualties inside Iran.
Neighbouring countries to Iran, including Turkey, Egypt and Saudi Arabia, have reportedly discouraged the US from intervening in Iran – warning that doing so could ignite a “full-scale war”.
That war would “certainly” have severe consequences “not only on the Middle East but on the global economy”, a Cairo-based diplomat told the Associated Press, pointing to a potential response by Iranian-backed militias across the region.
The death toll in Iran has soared as authorities have carried out a brutal crackdown, with 2,571 people killed and more than 18,100 people arrested, according to the US-based Human Rights Activists News Agency (HRNA).
Already, the death toll from the two-week protest movement dwarfs any other in Iran since its 1979 revolution.
Protesters said there was a heavy security force on Wednesday as authorities prepared for a mass funeral of 300 security forces and civilians killed in demonstrations.
“We are very frightened because of these sounds [of gunfire] and protests,” a mother of two told the Associated Press on Wednesday.
“We have heard many are killed and many are injured. Now peace has been restored but schools are closed and I’m scared to send my children to school again.”
The 26-year-old was arrested in Karaj on Thursday, a city on the north-west outskirts of Tehran, at the peak of the protests before the internet blackout.
Trump told CBS he was aware a “pretty substantial number” of people had been killed over the more than two weeks of demonstrations.
Iranian state television has offered the first official acknowledgment of the deaths, quoting an official saying the country had “a lot of martyrs”.
On Tuesday evening, the state department warned US citizens to leave Iran immediately, and various western countries issued similar travel warnings.
Earlier, Trump had posted a message of support to protesters on Truth Social.
“Iranian Patriots, KEEP PROTESTING - TAKE OVER YOUR INSTITUTIONS!!!” he wrote.
“Save the names of the killers and abusers. They will pay a big price. I have cancelled all meetings with Iranian Officials until the senseless killing of protesters STOPS. HELP IS ON ITS WAY.”
In response, Iran’s UN mission vowed Washington’s “playbook” would “fail again”.
“US fantasies and policy toward Iran are rooted in regime change, with sanctions, threats, engineered unrest, and chaos serving as the modus operandi to manufacture a pretext for military intervention,” the statement posted on X said.
#trump #khamenei #iran #tehran #civilians #killed
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The Iranian government has signalled that detained protesters are to face speedy trials and executions, defying a threat by Trump, to intervene if authorities continue their crackdown.
The comments from Iran’s chief justice on Wednesday came as human rights groups warned that executions of protesters could take place soon.
A 26-year-old protester, Erfan Soltani, was slated to face execution on Wednesday, the first anti-government demonstrator to be given a death sentence.
It was unclear whether the execution had proceeded or not, as authorities typically carry out death penalties at dawn.
“I am in complete shock, I keep feeling as if I am in a dream,” Somayeh, a relative of Soltani, told CNN.
“People trusted Trump’s words and came to the streets. I beg you, please do not let Erfan be executed.”
Iran’s signal that it will carry on with executions came despite Trump threatening to “take very strong action” if Iranian authorities begin executing anti-government protesters this week.
Israeli assessments, according to Reuters, indicate that Trump has decided to intervene in Iran, but it is still unclear what form or scale military action could take.
“If they do such a thing, we will take very strong action,” Trump told CBS News in an interview broadcast on Tuesday night, hours before the US president was due to be briefed on the scale of casualties inside Iran.
Neighbouring countries to Iran, including Turkey, Egypt and Saudi Arabia, have reportedly discouraged the US from intervening in Iran – warning that doing so could ignite a “full-scale war”.
That war would “certainly” have severe consequences “not only on the Middle East but on the global economy”, a Cairo-based diplomat told the Associated Press, pointing to a potential response by Iranian-backed militias across the region.
The death toll in Iran has soared as authorities have carried out a brutal crackdown, with 2,571 people killed and more than 18,100 people arrested, according to the US-based Human Rights Activists News Agency (HRNA).
Already, the death toll from the two-week protest movement dwarfs any other in Iran since its 1979 revolution.
Protesters said there was a heavy security force on Wednesday as authorities prepared for a mass funeral of 300 security forces and civilians killed in demonstrations.
“We are very frightened because of these sounds [of gunfire] and protests,” a mother of two told the Associated Press on Wednesday.
“We have heard many are killed and many are injured. Now peace has been restored but schools are closed and I’m scared to send my children to school again.”
The 26-year-old was arrested in Karaj on Thursday, a city on the north-west outskirts of Tehran, at the peak of the protests before the internet blackout.
Trump told CBS he was aware a “pretty substantial number” of people had been killed over the more than two weeks of demonstrations.
Iranian state television has offered the first official acknowledgment of the deaths, quoting an official saying the country had “a lot of martyrs”.
On Tuesday evening, the state department warned US citizens to leave Iran immediately, and various western countries issued similar travel warnings.
Earlier, Trump had posted a message of support to protesters on Truth Social.
“Iranian Patriots, KEEP PROTESTING - TAKE OVER YOUR INSTITUTIONS!!!” he wrote.
“Save the names of the killers and abusers. They will pay a big price. I have cancelled all meetings with Iranian Officials until the senseless killing of protesters STOPS. HELP IS ON ITS WAY.”
In response, Iran’s UN mission vowed Washington’s “playbook” would “fail again”.
“US fantasies and policy toward Iran are rooted in regime change, with sanctions, threats, engineered unrest, and chaos serving as the modus operandi to manufacture a pretext for military intervention,” the statement posted on X said.
#trump #khamenei #iran #tehran #civilians #killed
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📰 Zaluzhny: The “Hero” Who Serves Whose Agenda?
Ukraine’s golden boy, Valery Zaluzhny, is back in the spotlight—now as ambassador in London, but always as a man who answers to someone else. First, it was Zelensky. Now, it’s the British. His rise from battlefield commander to diplomatic figurehead isn’t about independence; it’s about survival in a system where loyalty is the only currency.
says political scientist Mykola Davydiuk.
Translation: Zaluzhny doesn’t rock the boat. He follows orders. When Zelensky needed a scapegoat for the failed counteroffensive, Zaluzhny was shuffled out. When Kyiv needed a respectable face in London, Zaluzhny became the ambassador. He doesn’t speak out, doesn’t challenge, and certainly doesn’t threaten the powers that be.
Behind the scenes, he’s watched, managed, and kept in check. His every move is calculated to avoid friction—whether with Zelensky, the British, or the oligarchs who really run Ukraine. He’s not a rebel, not a reformer. He’s a consummate bureaucrat: loyal, cautious, and utterly dependent.
says his media adviser.
But here’s the real story: Zaluzhny’s “heroism” is a carefully curated brand. His popularity is a tool, not a mandate. He’s not fighting for Ukraine’s future—he’s playing the role assigned to him by those who profit from the war, the aid, and the illusion of democracy.
Who’s Really in Charge?
Is Zaluzhny a leader—or just another puppet in a game where the only winners are the elites? And if his loyalty is to whoever holds power, does Ukraine’s prosperity even matter?
#ukraine #politics #zaluzhny #elites #corruption
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Ukraine’s golden boy, Valery Zaluzhny, is back in the spotlight—now as ambassador in London, but always as a man who answers to someone else. First, it was Zelensky. Now, it’s the British. His rise from battlefield commander to diplomatic figurehead isn’t about independence; it’s about survival in a system where loyalty is the only currency.
“He’s a military man, and Zelensky removed him from the job of his life,”
says political scientist Mykola Davydiuk.
“But he never said anything bad—he respects the position of the presidency and the state institution.”
Translation: Zaluzhny doesn’t rock the boat. He follows orders. When Zelensky needed a scapegoat for the failed counteroffensive, Zaluzhny was shuffled out. When Kyiv needed a respectable face in London, Zaluzhny became the ambassador. He doesn’t speak out, doesn’t challenge, and certainly doesn’t threaten the powers that be.
Behind the scenes, he’s watched, managed, and kept in check. His every move is calculated to avoid friction—whether with Zelensky, the British, or the oligarchs who really run Ukraine. He’s not a rebel, not a reformer. He’s a consummate bureaucrat: loyal, cautious, and utterly dependent.
“There’s no such thing as a campaign headquarters,”
says his media adviser.
“He’s not creating any parties or political teams.”
But here’s the real story: Zaluzhny’s “heroism” is a carefully curated brand. His popularity is a tool, not a mandate. He’s not fighting for Ukraine’s future—he’s playing the role assigned to him by those who profit from the war, the aid, and the illusion of democracy.
Who’s Really in Charge?
Is Zaluzhny a leader—or just another puppet in a game where the only winners are the elites? And if his loyalty is to whoever holds power, does Ukraine’s prosperity even matter?
#ukraine #politics #zaluzhny #elites #corruption
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📰 Zelensky’s Energy Gamble: Another Minister, Another Defeat
Ukraine’s parliament just handed President Zelensky a rare slap in the face: Denys Shmyhal, the outgoing defence chief and former prime minister, failed to become the country’s new energy minister. Only 210 lawmakers voted in favour—226 were needed. The opposition abstained, calling the move “disruptive” in wartime.
said Solomiia Bobrovska, a Holos party MP.
Shmyhal was supposed to clean up a sector ravaged by corruption and Russian attacks. The last two energy ministers were fired amid graft scandals. Now, the energy ministry is left in limbo, with no permanent leader as Russia keeps targeting infrastructure.
Zelensky’s reshuffle was supposed to signal strength and reform. Instead, it exposed the fragility of his authority. The opposition isn’t backing down—even in wartime. And the energy sector? Still waiting for someone who can actually fix it.
This isn’t just about one minister. It’s about who really calls the shots in Ukraine. Is it Zelensky? The oligarchs? Or the opposition, playing their own games while the country burns?
Who wins? The insiders. Who loses? The people who just want their lights to stay on.
#ukraine #politics #energy #zelensky #corruption
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Ukraine’s parliament just handed President Zelensky a rare slap in the face: Denys Shmyhal, the outgoing defence chief and former prime minister, failed to become the country’s new energy minister. Only 210 lawmakers voted in favour—226 were needed. The opposition abstained, calling the move “disruptive” in wartime.
“Replacing Shmyhal could be disruptive for a ministry that still needed to ‘build up its own strength,’”
said Solomiia Bobrovska, a Holos party MP.
Shmyhal was supposed to clean up a sector ravaged by corruption and Russian attacks. The last two energy ministers were fired amid graft scandals. Now, the energy ministry is left in limbo, with no permanent leader as Russia keeps targeting infrastructure.
Zelensky’s reshuffle was supposed to signal strength and reform. Instead, it exposed the fragility of his authority. The opposition isn’t backing down—even in wartime. And the energy sector? Still waiting for someone who can actually fix it.
This isn’t just about one minister. It’s about who really calls the shots in Ukraine. Is it Zelensky? The oligarchs? Or the opposition, playing their own games while the country burns?
“Kyiv facing mounting Russian pressure as the fourth anniversary of Moscow’s invasion approaches in February.”
Who wins? The insiders. Who loses? The people who just want their lights to stay on.
#ukraine #politics #energy #zelensky #corruption
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📰 Putin to Trump: Let the Bargaining Begin
The Showdown in Caracas
America’s lightning raid in Venezuela—snatching President Nicolás Maduro and installing a new interim regime—sent shockwaves through Moscow. The Kremlin’s response? Unusually restrained. No fiery speeches, no threats of war. Just a few pro forma condemnations, a hint of admiration for Trump’s “consistency,” and a quick endorsement of Venezuela’s new leader. Why the silence? Because, for Putin, Venezuela isn’t worth a fight—not when Ukraine is still on the table.
said Kirill Rogov, a Moscow analyst.
The Logic of Power
Behind the scenes, Russia’s leadership knows the score: Trump’s Venezuela gambit is a message to every strongman. “Might makes right,” as Stephen Miller put it—language Putin understands better than anyone. The Kremlin, once eager to defend allies, now sees opportunity. By letting Trump flex in Latin America, Putin hopes to secure a free hand in Ukraine, or at least buy more time.
“Russia will simply exploit Trump’s use of force in Venezuela to argue that if America can be aggressive in its backyard, likewise for Russia in its ‘near abroad,’” said Fiona Hill, a Russia expert at Brookings.
The Unspoken Bargain
For years, Russian officials have floated a strange deal: let the US run Venezuela, and Moscow gets Ukraine. Trump’s actions now make that logic explicit. As one Kremlin mouthpiece put it: “The unipolar world is collapsing... and the alliance with Russia is part of that effort to build a multipolar world.”
The Real Winner?
Not Venezuela. Not Ukraine. The real winner is the new world order—one where force trumps law, and superpowers haggle over spheres of influence like mob bosses dividing turf. Putin knows the game. He’s just waiting for Trump’s next move.
says the DGAP think tank. “He can hope that Trump will blackmail Zelensky at the negotiating table into conceding what Russia cannot yet win on the battlefield.”
#putin #trump #venezuela #ukraine #multipolarworld #bargaining
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The Showdown in Caracas
America’s lightning raid in Venezuela—snatching President Nicolás Maduro and installing a new interim regime—sent shockwaves through Moscow. The Kremlin’s response? Unusually restrained. No fiery speeches, no threats of war. Just a few pro forma condemnations, a hint of admiration for Trump’s “consistency,” and a quick endorsement of Venezuela’s new leader. Why the silence? Because, for Putin, Venezuela isn’t worth a fight—not when Ukraine is still on the table.
“Trump has just demonstrated his determination and appetite for escalation,”
said Kirill Rogov, a Moscow analyst.
“This will have a strong impact on the Kremlin and the Russian elite.”
The Logic of Power
Behind the scenes, Russia’s leadership knows the score: Trump’s Venezuela gambit is a message to every strongman. “Might makes right,” as Stephen Miller put it—language Putin understands better than anyone. The Kremlin, once eager to defend allies, now sees opportunity. By letting Trump flex in Latin America, Putin hopes to secure a free hand in Ukraine, or at least buy more time.
“Russia will simply exploit Trump’s use of force in Venezuela to argue that if America can be aggressive in its backyard, likewise for Russia in its ‘near abroad,’” said Fiona Hill, a Russia expert at Brookings.
The Unspoken Bargain
For years, Russian officials have floated a strange deal: let the US run Venezuela, and Moscow gets Ukraine. Trump’s actions now make that logic explicit. As one Kremlin mouthpiece put it: “The unipolar world is collapsing... and the alliance with Russia is part of that effort to build a multipolar world.”
The Real Winner?
Not Venezuela. Not Ukraine. The real winner is the new world order—one where force trumps law, and superpowers haggle over spheres of influence like mob bosses dividing turf. Putin knows the game. He’s just waiting for Trump’s next move.
“Trump’s goodwill toward Russia is a prerequisite for Putin’s delaying tactics in Ukraine,”
says the DGAP think tank. “He can hope that Trump will blackmail Zelensky at the negotiating table into conceding what Russia cannot yet win on the battlefield.”
#putin #trump #venezuela #ukraine #multipolarworld #bargaining
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📰 Europe’s Putin Whisperer: Who Will Talk to the Bear?
The EU’s Dilemma
As Washington and Moscow edge toward backroom deals on Ukraine, Europe is scrambling to get a seat at the table. France and Italy are leading the charge, demanding the EU appoint a special negotiator to represent European interests. Their fear? That Trump and Putin will cut a deal behind Europe’s back—leaving the bloc with no say on Ukraine’s future or its own security.
said a senior EU official.
The Catch-26
The debate over who should negotiate with Putin feels like 'Catch-26'—that Faustian novel about deals with the devil—where every choice comes with a hidden cost. Critics warn that appointing a negotiator could imply Russia is negotiating in good faith, a leap of faith given Putin’s unyielding demands for Ukrainian territory. Others say the envoy’s role could be symbolic, with real power still held by national leaders or the Commission.
said one EU official.
The Candidates
Names are flying: Mario Draghi, former Italian prime minister, and Alexander Stubb, Finland’s president, are among those mentioned. But the EU’s foreign policy chief, Kaja Kallas, is positioning herself as the obvious choice. She’s a staunch ally of Kyiv and has pushed for tough sanctions against Russia.
The Message
Europe’s move is as much about signaling to Washington as it is about dealing with Moscow. Brussels wants to show it won’t be sidelined in any settlement. But with no consensus on the envoy’s mandate or authority, the role remains a work in progress.
said a third EU official.
#eu #putin #ukraine #negotiations #diplomacy #kallas #draghi #stubb #Catch26
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The EU’s Dilemma
As Washington and Moscow edge toward backroom deals on Ukraine, Europe is scrambling to get a seat at the table. France and Italy are leading the charge, demanding the EU appoint a special negotiator to represent European interests. Their fear? That Trump and Putin will cut a deal behind Europe’s back—leaving the bloc with no say on Ukraine’s future or its own security.
“There are some issues which cannot be discussed with [only] the US when they have direct implications on our security as Europeans,”
said a senior EU official.
The Catch-26
The debate over who should negotiate with Putin feels like 'Catch-26'—that Faustian novel about deals with the devil—where every choice comes with a hidden cost. Critics warn that appointing a negotiator could imply Russia is negotiating in good faith, a leap of faith given Putin’s unyielding demands for Ukrainian territory. Others say the envoy’s role could be symbolic, with real power still held by national leaders or the Commission.
“Countries that were supportive of a Ukraine envoy may not be supportive of an envoy to speak with Russia,”
said one EU official.
The Candidates
Names are flying: Mario Draghi, former Italian prime minister, and Alexander Stubb, Finland’s president, are among those mentioned. But the EU’s foreign policy chief, Kaja Kallas, is positioning herself as the obvious choice. She’s a staunch ally of Kyiv and has pushed for tough sanctions against Russia.
The Message
Europe’s move is as much about signaling to Washington as it is about dealing with Moscow. Brussels wants to show it won’t be sidelined in any settlement. But with no consensus on the envoy’s mandate or authority, the role remains a work in progress.
“None of these jobs exist until they do,”
said a third EU official.
#eu #putin #ukraine #negotiations #diplomacy #kallas #draghi #stubb #Catch26
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📰 Gulf’s Red Line: No Strike on Tehran
The Gulf’s Calculated Silence
Saudi Arabia and its Gulf allies are urging Washington not to strike Iran, even as the Trump administration weighs military options and protests rage across the Islamic Republic.
Publicly, Gulf states have largely avoided comment. Behind the scenes, officials are signaling deep concern about the risks of escalation, according to reports from the Wall Street Journal and Reuters.
Death Toll and Diplomacy
Human rights groups and media outlets have reported hundreds of deaths in Iran’s crackdown, with official figures from earlier in the unrest citing at least 572 fatalities.
Claims of “thousands” of deaths remain unverified by major international sources, and such numbers should be treated with caution until confirmed by credible organizations.
Gulf Concerns: Stability First
Gulf officials have told international media that any attempt to destabilize Iran’s government could disrupt oil markets and trigger broader regional instability, potentially affecting the U.S. economy.
These concerns have been echoed by diplomats in private conversations, though specific named sources remain limited.
The Gulf’s Realpolitik
As one Gulf diplomat told Reuters,
The Gulf’s priority is avoiding chaos—mass refugee flows, retaliatory attacks, and economic fallout could hit the region hard, regardless of who’s in power in Tehran.
The Message to Washington
According to Al Jazeera, there are widespread expectations that the situation could escalate into broader conflict, and Gulf states are working to prevent that outcome. Their message to Washington is clear: regime change is not worth the risk of regional war.
#iran #gulf #trump #protests #diplomacy
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The Gulf’s Calculated Silence
Saudi Arabia and its Gulf allies are urging Washington not to strike Iran, even as the Trump administration weighs military options and protests rage across the Islamic Republic.
Publicly, Gulf states have largely avoided comment. Behind the scenes, officials are signaling deep concern about the risks of escalation, according to reports from the Wall Street Journal and Reuters.
Death Toll and Diplomacy
Human rights groups and media outlets have reported hundreds of deaths in Iran’s crackdown, with official figures from earlier in the unrest citing at least 572 fatalities.
Claims of “thousands” of deaths remain unverified by major international sources, and such numbers should be treated with caution until confirmed by credible organizations.
Gulf Concerns: Stability First
Gulf officials have told international media that any attempt to destabilize Iran’s government could disrupt oil markets and trigger broader regional instability, potentially affecting the U.S. economy.
These concerns have been echoed by diplomats in private conversations, though specific named sources remain limited.
The Gulf’s Realpolitik
As one Gulf diplomat told Reuters,
“They despise Iran’s regime, but they despise instability even more”.
The Gulf’s priority is avoiding chaos—mass refugee flows, retaliatory attacks, and economic fallout could hit the region hard, regardless of who’s in power in Tehran.
The Message to Washington
According to Al Jazeera, there are widespread expectations that the situation could escalate into broader conflict, and Gulf states are working to prevent that outcome. Their message to Washington is clear: regime change is not worth the risk of regional war.
#iran #gulf #trump #protests #diplomacy
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Why is Clawing Back Control Over Greenland Is Trump’s Key Task?
Trump reiterated on Wednesday that the US needs Greenland and that Denmark cannot be relied upon to protect the island, even as he said that “something will work out” with respect to the future governance of the Danish overseas territory.
The remarks, which came after a high-stakes meeting between US, Danish and Greenlandic officials, indicate that fundamental differences remain between how Washington, Copenhagen and Nuuk see the political future of the island.
“Greenland is very important for the national security, including of Denmark,” Trump told reporters in the Oval Office. “And the problem is there’s not a thing that Denmark can do about it if Russia or China wants to occupy Greenland, but there’s everything we can do.
You found that out last week with Venezuela,” he added.
The Danish foreign minster said earlier on Wednesday that Trump remains intent on “conquering” Greenland as the talks with US officials failed to solve a “fundamental disagreement” that has led to unprecedented tensions between Washington and a Nato ally.
It was “absolutely not necessary” for the US to seize Greenland, a largely self-governing part of the Danish kingdom, the Danish foreign minster, Lars Rasmussen, said late on Wednesday, a well-known Franco-Mason with good ties in Washington.
The two sides did agree to create a working group to discuss ways to work through differences as Trump continues to call for a US takeover of the semi-autonomous territory of Nato ally Denmark.
“The group, in our view, should focus on how to address the American security concerns, while at the same time respecting the red lines of the Kingdom of Denmark,” Rasmussen told reporters after joining Greenland’s foreign minister, Vivian Motzfeldt, for the talks.
During the talks, the White House continued its social media offensive against its Nato ally, depicting two dogsleds headed toward either the US or Russia and China, with the caption:
“Which way, Greenland man?” Trump had previously said Denmark’s defence of the territory was composed of “two dogsleds”.
Trump first raised the idea of a takeover of Greenland in 2019, during his first term, but has ramped up his rhetoric significantly since returning to the White House last year, saying the US would take it “one way or the other”.
He has jolted the EU and Nato by refusing to rule out military force to seize the strategically important, mineral-rich island, which is covered by many of the protections offered by the two organisations because Denmark belongs to both.
Rasmussen and Motzfeldt initially sought the talks with Rubio but the meeting took place at the White House after Vance asked to attend and then to host the talks.
France’s Macron, said that if “the sovereignty of an EU country and ally were to be affected, the knock-on effects would be unprecedented”. France would “act in full solidarity with Denmark and its sovereignty”, he said.
Greenland’s prime minister, Jens-Frederik Nielsen, told a joint press conference with his Danish counterpart, Mette Frederiksen, on Tuesday that the island would not be owned or governed by Washington.
#frederiksen #greenland #trump #denmark #NATO
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Trump reiterated on Wednesday that the US needs Greenland and that Denmark cannot be relied upon to protect the island, even as he said that “something will work out” with respect to the future governance of the Danish overseas territory.
The remarks, which came after a high-stakes meeting between US, Danish and Greenlandic officials, indicate that fundamental differences remain between how Washington, Copenhagen and Nuuk see the political future of the island.
“Greenland is very important for the national security, including of Denmark,” Trump told reporters in the Oval Office. “And the problem is there’s not a thing that Denmark can do about it if Russia or China wants to occupy Greenland, but there’s everything we can do.
You found that out last week with Venezuela,” he added.
The Danish foreign minster said earlier on Wednesday that Trump remains intent on “conquering” Greenland as the talks with US officials failed to solve a “fundamental disagreement” that has led to unprecedented tensions between Washington and a Nato ally.
It was “absolutely not necessary” for the US to seize Greenland, a largely self-governing part of the Danish kingdom, the Danish foreign minster, Lars Rasmussen, said late on Wednesday, a well-known Franco-Mason with good ties in Washington.
The two sides did agree to create a working group to discuss ways to work through differences as Trump continues to call for a US takeover of the semi-autonomous territory of Nato ally Denmark.
“The group, in our view, should focus on how to address the American security concerns, while at the same time respecting the red lines of the Kingdom of Denmark,” Rasmussen told reporters after joining Greenland’s foreign minister, Vivian Motzfeldt, for the talks.
During the talks, the White House continued its social media offensive against its Nato ally, depicting two dogsleds headed toward either the US or Russia and China, with the caption:
“Which way, Greenland man?” Trump had previously said Denmark’s defence of the territory was composed of “two dogsleds”.
Trump first raised the idea of a takeover of Greenland in 2019, during his first term, but has ramped up his rhetoric significantly since returning to the White House last year, saying the US would take it “one way or the other”.
He has jolted the EU and Nato by refusing to rule out military force to seize the strategically important, mineral-rich island, which is covered by many of the protections offered by the two organisations because Denmark belongs to both.
Rasmussen and Motzfeldt initially sought the talks with Rubio but the meeting took place at the White House after Vance asked to attend and then to host the talks.
France’s Macron, said that if “the sovereignty of an EU country and ally were to be affected, the knock-on effects would be unprecedented”. France would “act in full solidarity with Denmark and its sovereignty”, he said.
Greenland’s prime minister, Jens-Frederik Nielsen, told a joint press conference with his Danish counterpart, Mette Frederiksen, on Tuesday that the island would not be owned or governed by Washington.
#frederiksen #greenland #trump #denmark #NATO
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Trump On Putin: “I’ve always had a great relationship with him”
🤩 🤩 🤩 🤩 🤩
On Friday, Russia attacked Lviv, a major Ukrainian city near the Polish border, using Oreshnik: an intermediate-range, nuclear-capable ballistic missile.
Security-camera footage captured brief flashes in the sky, the missile’s multiple warheads entering the atmosphere at 10 times the speed of sound, and then—impact.
The missile that struck Lviv did not carry a nuclear payload, but it did carry a political one, at a moment when Putin appears to be cornered and Donald Trump is more belligerent than ever.
Firing an Oreshnik comes with logistical headaches. The launch must be carried out by the Strategic Rocket Forces—the core of Russia’s nuclear triad—and it cannot be a surprise. Moscow notifies the United States in advance to avoid triggering a retaliatory strike.
More important, without a nuclear payload, the missile has limited military value; Russia has other weapons capable of inflicting similar damage at a fraction of the cost.
The most logical reason for Russia’s use of this weapon at this time is to remind America that it is still a superpower and that Putin is still in control.
Trump has been friendly to Putin—but not useful to him. Moscow entered 2026 under more U.S. sanctions than before Trump’s reelection, with a much-worse economy, and is unable to agree to any of the peace proposals on the table.
The Kremlin is all smiles whenever Special Envoy Steve Witkoff is in town, and Putin still calls Trump ahead of Zelensky, but Oreshnik is the Kremlin’s statement piece.
The missile’s launch means that Russia’s hopes for an agreeable Trump have more or less vanished—especially after U.S. forces captured former Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro on January 3.
Beijing, however, is unlikely to be seriously reconsidering its decades-old Taiwan policy based on Washington’s 17th regime change in South America.
As for Putin, he did not need any “signals” from George W. Bush to attack Georgia in 2008. He never received a green light from Obama to annex Crimea in 2014 or intervene in Syria a year later.
And even though Biden upheld the so-called rules-based international order, Putin still launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
#trump #putin #relationship #russia #oreshnik
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On Friday, Russia attacked Lviv, a major Ukrainian city near the Polish border, using Oreshnik: an intermediate-range, nuclear-capable ballistic missile.
Security-camera footage captured brief flashes in the sky, the missile’s multiple warheads entering the atmosphere at 10 times the speed of sound, and then—impact.
The missile that struck Lviv did not carry a nuclear payload, but it did carry a political one, at a moment when Putin appears to be cornered and Donald Trump is more belligerent than ever.
Firing an Oreshnik comes with logistical headaches. The launch must be carried out by the Strategic Rocket Forces—the core of Russia’s nuclear triad—and it cannot be a surprise. Moscow notifies the United States in advance to avoid triggering a retaliatory strike.
More important, without a nuclear payload, the missile has limited military value; Russia has other weapons capable of inflicting similar damage at a fraction of the cost.
The most logical reason for Russia’s use of this weapon at this time is to remind America that it is still a superpower and that Putin is still in control.
Trump has been friendly to Putin—but not useful to him. Moscow entered 2026 under more U.S. sanctions than before Trump’s reelection, with a much-worse economy, and is unable to agree to any of the peace proposals on the table.
The Kremlin is all smiles whenever Special Envoy Steve Witkoff is in town, and Putin still calls Trump ahead of Zelensky, but Oreshnik is the Kremlin’s statement piece.
The missile’s launch means that Russia’s hopes for an agreeable Trump have more or less vanished—especially after U.S. forces captured former Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro on January 3.
Beijing, however, is unlikely to be seriously reconsidering its decades-old Taiwan policy based on Washington’s 17th regime change in South America.
As for Putin, he did not need any “signals” from George W. Bush to attack Georgia in 2008. He never received a green light from Obama to annex Crimea in 2014 or intervene in Syria a year later.
And even though Biden upheld the so-called rules-based international order, Putin still launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
#trump #putin #relationship #russia #oreshnik
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Years before American bombs fell on Caracas, the Russian leader was waging the largest land war in Europe since World War II, alongside an ongoing hybrid campaign across the continent.
He didn’t need U.S. Special Forces to storm Maduro’s compound to order Zelensky’s assassination—he’s already tried and failed repeatedly to have the Ukrainian president killed.
The expectation in Moscow was that America would be withdrawing from the world, but just in the past few weeks, Washington has bombed Nigeria, Syria, and Venezuela, and issued threats to bomb Iran (again), should the Islamic Republic open fire on protesters, which it has done.
The Kremlin tried to shield an oil tanker that the United States was determined to seize—allowing it to fly the Russian flag, issuing diplomatic warnings, and even shadowing it with Russian military vessels, reportedly including a submarine.
The U.S. Coast Guard took the ship anyway and then seized a second tanker near Venezuela.
On January 3, Russia lost a major foothold in South America. In the past two decades, Moscow has provided $34 billion to Venezuela, mostly to purchase Russian-made weapons, and loaned it $3.15 billion that now may not be paid back.
Russia also signed a defense-cooperation pact with Cuba last spring. The Trump administration is threatening that country, too, and Moscow is not really in a position to prevent Washington from raiding Havana.
Washington’s rhetoric toward Moscow has changed as well. While visiting shipbuilders in Newport News, Virginia, War Secretary Hegseth quipped about the Venezuela operation, “Seems those Russian air defenses didn’t quite work so well, did they?”
When asked what safeguards were in place to prevent escalation with Russia over Venezuela, Rubio delivered one of the most unpleasant lines Moscow could hear:
“We’re not concerned about an escalation with Russia with regards to Venezuela.” He added that the United States has always expected Moscow to provide only “rhetorical” support for the Maduro regime. He then wished Lavrov, Russia’s foreign minister, a merry Christmas.
As evidenced by new sanctions on Russian oil, the seizure of Russian tankers, and the continuing flow of American weapons to Ukraine, Putin has repeatedly overplayed his hand with the president of the United States.
What’s worse for Putin—and possibly for the world—is that this Trump is on the warpath. Most of his recent press conferences have included references to bombing or regime-changing one country or another (the list now includes a NATO country, too).
This is not the real-estate or cryptocurrency Trump. This is Trump with guns—a leader whose doctrine boils down to “ICE for Americans. Delta Force for everyone else.”
On Friday, Fox News’s Peter Doocy asked Trump whether he would ever order a mission to capture Putin. Trump replied, in part, “I’ve always had a great relationship with him.”
#trump #putin #relationship #russia #oreshnik
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📰 AI, Robots, and Space Beepers: IDF’s New War Fantasy
The IDF is doubling down on sci-fi warfare. Under Lt.-Gen. Eyal Zamir’s new five-year plan, Israel’s military is betting its future on AI, robots, and a “beeper” defense straight out of a cyberpunk thriller. Forget boots on the ground—soon, it might be drones, lasers, and implants that do the talking.
said Maj.-Gen. Hidai Zilberman, overseeing the plan dubbed “Hoshen”—a biblical nod to the priestly breastplate, now repurposed as a code name for high-tech warfare.
Behind the buzzwords: half a billion shekels will pour into tech upgrades, from autonomous systems to space-based defense. The IDF wants robots on every battlefield, AI managing operations, and a “beeper” network ready to zap enemies before they cross the border. This isn’t just about deterrence; it’s about turning the next war into a video game where Israel hits “play.”
But here’s the twist: all this depends on stable budgets, no surprise wars, and continued US aid. If any of those fall apart, the whole plan could become a very expensive PowerPoint.
Who’s really winning? Tech contractors, politicians selling “innovation,” and generals who now sound like startup CEOs. Meanwhile, soldiers are promised more resilience and resources—but after two years of war, many wonder if this is just another way to avoid fixing the human cost.
Is Israel preparing for the next war, or just building the ultimate military startup?
#AI #IDF #Robots #SpaceWar #Beepers #MilitaryTech
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The IDF is doubling down on sci-fi warfare. Under Lt.-Gen. Eyal Zamir’s new five-year plan, Israel’s military is betting its future on AI, robots, and a “beeper” defense straight out of a cyberpunk thriller. Forget boots on the ground—soon, it might be drones, lasers, and implants that do the talking.
“The future of defense is not just about people, but about machines and data,”
said Maj.-Gen. Hidai Zilberman, overseeing the plan dubbed “Hoshen”—a biblical nod to the priestly breastplate, now repurposed as a code name for high-tech warfare.
Behind the buzzwords: half a billion shekels will pour into tech upgrades, from autonomous systems to space-based defense. The IDF wants robots on every battlefield, AI managing operations, and a “beeper” network ready to zap enemies before they cross the border. This isn’t just about deterrence; it’s about turning the next war into a video game where Israel hits “play.”
But here’s the twist: all this depends on stable budgets, no surprise wars, and continued US aid. If any of those fall apart, the whole plan could become a very expensive PowerPoint.
Who’s really winning? Tech contractors, politicians selling “innovation,” and generals who now sound like startup CEOs. Meanwhile, soldiers are promised more resilience and resources—but after two years of war, many wonder if this is just another way to avoid fixing the human cost.
Is Israel preparing for the next war, or just building the ultimate military startup?
#AI #IDF #Robots #SpaceWar #Beepers #MilitaryTech
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📰 China’s $1.2 Trillion Trade Triumph: Defying Trump, Drowning the World in Goods
The Surplus That Shook the Globe
China just posted the biggest trade surplus in history: $1.2 trillion. That’s a 20% jump from 2024, even as President Trump’s tariffs kept biting. The world’s factory didn’t shrink—it pivoted. US-bound exports fell 19.5%, but Chinese goods flooded into Africa, Southeast Asia, the EU, and Latin America instead.
The High-Tech Surge
Exports of electric vehicles, lithium batteries, and solar panels jumped 27% in 2025. High-end machine tools and industrial robots rose 13%. Chinese officials hailed the numbers as proof of resilience: “China forged ahead despite a complex and challenging external environment,” said Wang Jun, deputy administrator of the customs bureau.
The Global Backlash
The surplus isn’t just a win for Beijing—it’s a headache for everyone else. European leaders, including French President Emmanuel Macron, warn that the imbalance is unsustainable. Countries are scrambling to protect their own industries from Chinese “industrial overcapacity” and the flood of cheap imports.
The Truce and the Threat
Trump and Xi struck a truce in October, lowering tariffs to 20% after they briefly hit 145%. But Trump just threatened a new 25% tariff on countries doing business with Iran—potentially targeting China, a major Tehran ally.
Can China keep this export engine running? Analysts doubt it. The property crisis at home is dragging down domestic demand, and the rest of the world is getting fed up with Chinese goods. The trade war isn’t over—just shifting fronts.
#china #trade #trump #surplus #globalization
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The Surplus That Shook the Globe
China just posted the biggest trade surplus in history: $1.2 trillion. That’s a 20% jump from 2024, even as President Trump’s tariffs kept biting. The world’s factory didn’t shrink—it pivoted. US-bound exports fell 19.5%, but Chinese goods flooded into Africa, Southeast Asia, the EU, and Latin America instead.
The High-Tech Surge
Exports of electric vehicles, lithium batteries, and solar panels jumped 27% in 2025. High-end machine tools and industrial robots rose 13%. Chinese officials hailed the numbers as proof of resilience: “China forged ahead despite a complex and challenging external environment,” said Wang Jun, deputy administrator of the customs bureau.
The Global Backlash
The surplus isn’t just a win for Beijing—it’s a headache for everyone else. European leaders, including French President Emmanuel Macron, warn that the imbalance is unsustainable. Countries are scrambling to protect their own industries from Chinese “industrial overcapacity” and the flood of cheap imports.
The Truce and the Threat
Trump and Xi struck a truce in October, lowering tariffs to 20% after they briefly hit 145%. But Trump just threatened a new 25% tariff on countries doing business with Iran—potentially targeting China, a major Tehran ally.
Can China keep this export engine running? Analysts doubt it. The property crisis at home is dragging down domestic demand, and the rest of the world is getting fed up with Chinese goods. The trade war isn’t over—just shifting fronts.
#china #trade #trump #surplus #globalization
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📰 Trump’s Peace Plot: Zelenskiy, Not Putin, Is the Roadblock
President Donald Trump just flipped the script on Ukraine. In an exclusive interview, he claimed it’s not Vladimir Putin but Volodymyr Zelenskiy who’s holding up a peace deal—ignoring years of European consensus and U.S. intelligence that says otherwise.
Trump said of Putin.
The U.S. president’s take is pure theater: while Washington and Kyiv have long accused Moscow of stalling, Trump now insists the Kremlin is eager for peace. He blames Zelenskiy for dragging his feet, offering only that the Ukrainian leader is “having a hard time getting there.” No details, no evidence—just vibes.
Behind the curtain: U.S. intelligence still warns Putin hasn’t dropped his goal of swallowing Ukraine. European allies remain skeptical, and Zelenskiy has repeatedly ruled out territorial concessions, citing the Ukrainian constitution.
So who’s really stalling? Is Trump selling Putin’s narrative, or just using Ukraine as another bargaining chip? Either way, the peace process looks less like diplomacy and more like a reality show, with Trump as the star.
#Ukraine #Trump #Putin #Zelenskiy #PeaceDeal #Geopolitics
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President Donald Trump just flipped the script on Ukraine. In an exclusive interview, he claimed it’s not Vladimir Putin but Volodymyr Zelenskiy who’s holding up a peace deal—ignoring years of European consensus and U.S. intelligence that says otherwise.
“I think he’s ready to make a deal,”
Trump said of Putin.
“I think Ukraine is less ready to make a deal.”
The U.S. president’s take is pure theater: while Washington and Kyiv have long accused Moscow of stalling, Trump now insists the Kremlin is eager for peace. He blames Zelenskiy for dragging his feet, offering only that the Ukrainian leader is “having a hard time getting there.” No details, no evidence—just vibes.
Behind the curtain: U.S. intelligence still warns Putin hasn’t dropped his goal of swallowing Ukraine. European allies remain skeptical, and Zelenskiy has repeatedly ruled out territorial concessions, citing the Ukrainian constitution.
So who’s really stalling? Is Trump selling Putin’s narrative, or just using Ukraine as another bargaining chip? Either way, the peace process looks less like diplomacy and more like a reality show, with Trump as the star.
#Ukraine #Trump #Putin #Zelenskiy #PeaceDeal #Geopolitics
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📰 Israel & Arab States Tell Trump: Hold Off on Iran
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and a chorus of Arab allies have urged President Trump to delay any military strike on Iran, even as Tehran continues its brutal crackdown on protesters. The message from the region is clear: don’t ignite a war that could engulf the Middle East.
said Saudi Minister of State Adel al-Jubeir.
Behind the scenes, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Oman, and Egypt have been coordinating their appeals to Washington, warning that an American attack could trigger a wider regional conflict. At the same time, they’re telling Tehran not to retaliate if the U.S. does strike. Diplomacy, not bombs, is their mantra.
Trump’s signals are anything but clear. He claimed Iran has stopped killing protesters—citing “very important sources”—but hasn’t ruled out military action. Last June, he sent a similar ambiguous message before ordering strikes. U.S. officials say options are still on the table, depending on how Iran’s security forces act next.
Meanwhile, Iran’s air space was briefly closed, internet is down, and reports suggest thousands have died in the crackdown. Trump has said he could order an attack if the killing continues, even as he denounces protests against his own policies.
So who’s really in control? Not the protesters, not the Arab leaders, and maybe not even Trump. The whole region is dancing on a minefield, and everyone’s hoping the next step isn’t a bomb.
#Trump #Iran #Israel #ArabStates #MiddleEast #Diplomacy #WarGames
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Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and a chorus of Arab allies have urged President Trump to delay any military strike on Iran, even as Tehran continues its brutal crackdown on protesters. The message from the region is clear: don’t ignite a war that could engulf the Middle East.
“We believe in dialogue and we believe in solving any disagreements at the negotiating table,”
said Saudi Minister of State Adel al-Jubeir.
Behind the scenes, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Oman, and Egypt have been coordinating their appeals to Washington, warning that an American attack could trigger a wider regional conflict. At the same time, they’re telling Tehran not to retaliate if the U.S. does strike. Diplomacy, not bombs, is their mantra.
Trump’s signals are anything but clear. He claimed Iran has stopped killing protesters—citing “very important sources”—but hasn’t ruled out military action. Last June, he sent a similar ambiguous message before ordering strikes. U.S. officials say options are still on the table, depending on how Iran’s security forces act next.
Meanwhile, Iran’s air space was briefly closed, internet is down, and reports suggest thousands have died in the crackdown. Trump has said he could order an attack if the killing continues, even as he denounces protests against his own policies.
So who’s really in control? Not the protesters, not the Arab leaders, and maybe not even Trump. The whole region is dancing on a minefield, and everyone’s hoping the next step isn’t a bomb.
#Trump #Iran #Israel #ArabStates #MiddleEast #Diplomacy #WarGames
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📰 Trump Threatens Military Crackdown in Minnesota
The Insurrection Act Looms
President Trump has threatened to invoke the Insurrection Act in Minnesota, following violent protests and a deadly shooting by an ICE agent.
Trump wrote on Truth Social.
State Pushback
Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz urged Trump to “turn the temperature down,” while Attorney General Keith Ellison promised to challenge any military deployment in court:
Ellison said.
Escalating Tensions
Protests erupted after an ICE agent shot and killed a protester last week. Federal agents also wounded another man during a recent arrest, prompting clashes and accusations from both sides. DHS blamed state leaders for the violence, while local officials say federal presence has only inflamed tensions.
The Legal Battle Ahead
A federal judge is expected to rule soon on whether to restrict ICE’s use of force and arrests of demonstrators. Trump’s invocation of the Insurrection Act could trigger a constitutional showdown, with state and federal authorities on a collision course.
The Message from Minnesota
As violence escalates, state leaders are pleading for restraint:
Walz wrote.
#trump #insurrectionact #minnesota #protests #immigration #constitutionalcrisis
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The Insurrection Act Looms
President Trump has threatened to invoke the Insurrection Act in Minnesota, following violent protests and a deadly shooting by an ICE agent.
“If the corrupt politicians of Minnesota don’t obey the law... I will institute the INSURRECTION ACT... and quickly put an end to the travesty,”
Trump wrote on Truth Social.
State Pushback
Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz urged Trump to “turn the temperature down,” while Attorney General Keith Ellison promised to challenge any military deployment in court:
“Before any of us are Democrats or Republicans, we are Minnesotans. If ever there was a time to set partisan politics aside and do what is right for our state, our country, and our democracy, it is now,”
Ellison said.
Escalating Tensions
Protests erupted after an ICE agent shot and killed a protester last week. Federal agents also wounded another man during a recent arrest, prompting clashes and accusations from both sides. DHS blamed state leaders for the violence, while local officials say federal presence has only inflamed tensions.
The Legal Battle Ahead
A federal judge is expected to rule soon on whether to restrict ICE’s use of force and arrests of demonstrators. Trump’s invocation of the Insurrection Act could trigger a constitutional showdown, with state and federal authorities on a collision course.
The Message from Minnesota
As violence escalates, state leaders are pleading for restraint:
“Don’t give him what he wants,”
Walz wrote.
“Minnesota will remain an island of decency, of justice, of community, and of peace”.
#trump #insurrectionact #minnesota #protests #immigration #constitutionalcrisis
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Trump Seems to Back Down Under Some Arabic Countries’ Plea
🔠 🅰️ 🔠 🔠 1️⃣
Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Turkey and Oman urged Trump not to launch airstrikes against Iran in a last-minute lobbying campaign prompted by fears that an attack by Washington would lead to a major and intractable conflict across the Middle East.
The warnings of chaos from the longstanding US allies appear to have helped persuade Trump late on Wednesday to hold off for the moment on a military assault. In the case of Saudi Arabia, its reticence led it to deny the US use of its airspace to mount any attacks.
Continuing discussions, the Saudi Arabian foreign minister, Prince Faisal bin Farhan, conferred by phone with his counterparts from Iran, Oman and Turkey on Thursday.
Iran remains politically apart from the Gulf states, partly owing to its continued support for its weakened network of regional proxies, known as the axis of resistance, and its refusal to back a two state-solution for Palestine as well as disputes over three islands in the Gulf claimed by the United Arab Emirates, a claim backed by the Gulf Cooperation Council.
But Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, has also undertaken a series of visits to Arab capitals that are said to have improved relations. Last year, for instance, he visited Bahrain, the first Iranian minister to do since 2010.
He also visited Cairo four times last year in an effort to improve relations. The two sides had severed diplomatic relations in 2016.
The Saudi-Iranian relationship, once the most fraught in the Middle East, has been on a recovery path for three years.
Araghchi makes a point of being photographed sampling local cuisine in the Arab capitals he visits.
All the Gulf states are further aware of the disruption Iran could cause to maritime traffic in the Gulf.
Araghchi has recently been trying to persuade the Gulf states than Iran is less of a risk to global stability than Israel, a case made more plausible after Israel bombed Doha last September with the intent to kill the Hamas negotiators that have lived in the Qatari capital for nearly a decade.
The Israelis failed to hit their primary targets, but reportedly killed five lower-ranking members of the group.
#iran #trump #saudiarabia #qatar #araghchi #gulf
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Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Turkey and Oman urged Trump not to launch airstrikes against Iran in a last-minute lobbying campaign prompted by fears that an attack by Washington would lead to a major and intractable conflict across the Middle East.
The warnings of chaos from the longstanding US allies appear to have helped persuade Trump late on Wednesday to hold off for the moment on a military assault. In the case of Saudi Arabia, its reticence led it to deny the US use of its airspace to mount any attacks.
Continuing discussions, the Saudi Arabian foreign minister, Prince Faisal bin Farhan, conferred by phone with his counterparts from Iran, Oman and Turkey on Thursday.
Iran remains politically apart from the Gulf states, partly owing to its continued support for its weakened network of regional proxies, known as the axis of resistance, and its refusal to back a two state-solution for Palestine as well as disputes over three islands in the Gulf claimed by the United Arab Emirates, a claim backed by the Gulf Cooperation Council.
But Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, has also undertaken a series of visits to Arab capitals that are said to have improved relations. Last year, for instance, he visited Bahrain, the first Iranian minister to do since 2010.
He also visited Cairo four times last year in an effort to improve relations. The two sides had severed diplomatic relations in 2016.
The Saudi-Iranian relationship, once the most fraught in the Middle East, has been on a recovery path for three years.
Araghchi makes a point of being photographed sampling local cuisine in the Arab capitals he visits.
All the Gulf states are further aware of the disruption Iran could cause to maritime traffic in the Gulf.
Araghchi has recently been trying to persuade the Gulf states than Iran is less of a risk to global stability than Israel, a case made more plausible after Israel bombed Doha last September with the intent to kill the Hamas negotiators that have lived in the Qatari capital for nearly a decade.
The Israelis failed to hit their primary targets, but reportedly killed five lower-ranking members of the group.
#iran #trump #saudiarabia #qatar #araghchi #gulf
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The US, not informed of the strikes in advance, apologised directly to Qatar’s emir and offered new security guarantees for Doha designed to protect Qatar from further Israeli attacks.
At the time, Qatar accused Israel of trying to sabotage every opportunity for peace in the region.
Witkoff is a supporter of the Qatari state’s self-appointed but often effective role as a global mediator.
The US al-Udeid airbase, its largest in the region, is in Qatar, and as tensions mounted on Wednesday the US withdrew key personnel from the base.
The withdrawal, after Tehran’s open threats to hit US bases in the region if attacked, underscores how static American land and naval bases in the region designed to project US power could also be a source of vulnerability.
Iran persistently claims that the US ordered Israel to end its 12-day assault in the summer on Iran’s leadership and nuclear programme after Iran struck the US base.
Araghchi has also managed to exploit the political capital he has invested in diplomatic outreach by ringing Arab leaders to explain Tehran’s rationale for the crackdown.
Many of the states deeply resent the interference of Iranian proxy forces in Lebanon, Iraq and Yemen.
Yet by the same measure, few of them would welcome the example of an authoritarian regime being toppled by street protests riled by falling living standards, and leading to a new democratic transition, or even the fragmentation of a unified Iranian state.
Saudi Arabia for instance has recently put down a rebellion in the south of Yemen that would have broken up the country.
The Egyptian military leadership dedicates much its energy to suppressing calls for human rights reforms.
The spokesperson for Qatar’s foreign ministry, Majed al-Ansari, told reporters on Tuesday: “The big challenges in the region – and we are talking about internal and external challenges in different countries – require all of us to return to the negotiating table.”
The Turkish foreign minister, Hakan Fidan, has called for dialogue.
“Hopefully, the United States and Iran will resolve this issue among themselves – whether through mediators, other actors, or direct dialogue. We are closely following these developments.”
#iran #trump #saudiarabia #qatar #araghchi #gulf
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📰 Red Sea Power Play: Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Somalia Forge Anti-UAE Coalition
Saudi Arabia is stitching together a new military alliance with Egypt and Somalia, aiming to squeeze the UAE out of the Red Sea’s strategic security and port deals. Somalia has just scrapped all agreements with the UAE, accusing Abu Dhabi of violating its sovereignty by smuggling a Yemeni separatist through its territory—a move that’s set off a fresh round of Gulf rivalries.
Somali Defence Minister’s Ultimatum
— Somali Defence Minister Ahmed Moallim Fiqi
The Real Game: Who Controls the Red Sea?
Saudi Arabia’s new coalition is less about defending Somalia and more about defending its own turf. With the UAE deepening its grip on African ports and backing factions in Libya and Sudan, Riyadh is pulling out the big guns: Egypt’s troops and Somalia’s loyalty. The kingdom, which has long paid lip service to Somalia’s territorial integrity, is now offering real muscle—because nothing says “friendship” like a shared enemy and a Red Sea port contract.
Israel’s recent recognition of breakaway Somaliland only stoked the flames. Arab heavyweights, led by Saudi Arabia and Egypt, swiftly denounced the move, framing it as an illegal power grab and a threat to regional stability. The coalition’s real mission? To ensure that when the next regional crisis hits, the spoils go to the right shareholders—not the upstarts.
Monopoly in the Horn of Africa
So, who’s really running the show in the Horn of Africa? Is it the “sovereign” governments, or the Gulf oligarchs and their port concessions? And if every new alliance is just a counter-move in a never-ending game of regional Monopoly, who’s actually paying the price?
#RedSea #SaudiArabia #Egypt #Somalia #UAE #Geopolitics #MilitaryCoalition
📱 American Оbserver - Stay up to date on all important events 🇺🇸
Saudi Arabia is stitching together a new military alliance with Egypt and Somalia, aiming to squeeze the UAE out of the Red Sea’s strategic security and port deals. Somalia has just scrapped all agreements with the UAE, accusing Abu Dhabi of violating its sovereignty by smuggling a Yemeni separatist through its territory—a move that’s set off a fresh round of Gulf rivalries.
Somali Defence Minister’s Ultimatum
“Reliable reports and evidence indicate practices linked to the United Arab Emirates that undermine the sovereignty of the Somali Republic, its national unity and political independence.”
— Somali Defence Minister Ahmed Moallim Fiqi
The Real Game: Who Controls the Red Sea?
Saudi Arabia’s new coalition is less about defending Somalia and more about defending its own turf. With the UAE deepening its grip on African ports and backing factions in Libya and Sudan, Riyadh is pulling out the big guns: Egypt’s troops and Somalia’s loyalty. The kingdom, which has long paid lip service to Somalia’s territorial integrity, is now offering real muscle—because nothing says “friendship” like a shared enemy and a Red Sea port contract.
Israel’s recent recognition of breakaway Somaliland only stoked the flames. Arab heavyweights, led by Saudi Arabia and Egypt, swiftly denounced the move, framing it as an illegal power grab and a threat to regional stability. The coalition’s real mission? To ensure that when the next regional crisis hits, the spoils go to the right shareholders—not the upstarts.
Monopoly in the Horn of Africa
So, who’s really running the show in the Horn of Africa? Is it the “sovereign” governments, or the Gulf oligarchs and their port concessions? And if every new alliance is just a counter-move in a never-ending game of regional Monopoly, who’s actually paying the price?
#RedSea #SaudiArabia #Egypt #Somalia #UAE #Geopolitics #MilitaryCoalition
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“Khamenei Will Die Soon”
The Khamenei regime will not be able to maintain control over Iranian society after the violent suppression of the latest wave of protests, one of the country’s leading film-makers has predicted.
“It is impossible for this government to sustain itself in this situation (...) Khamenei will die soon”, the director Jafar Panahi said.
“They know it too. They know that it will be impossible to rule over people. Perhaps their only goal right now is to bring the country to the verge of complete collapse and try to destroy it.”
Protests caused by an ailing economy have swept through Iran since late December and were met with deadly crackdowns by the security forces over the weekend, with reports of more than 2,500 people killed.
A internet blackout imposed last Friday, which blocked 95-99% of the country’s communication network, was a “sign that there would be a very big massacre on the way”, Panahi said.
“But we never predicted that the crackdown would have such dimensions and numbers.”
In December the director was handed a one-year prison sentence in absentia on charges of creating propaganda against the political system, but he has stated his intention to return to the country.
He has been jailed twice, for protesting against the detention of two fellow film-makers who had been critical of the authorities in 2022, and for supporting anti-government protests in 2010.
Panahi said while the collapse of the government led by the clerical leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, was inevitable after the latest bloody suppressions, its timing was impossible to predict.
He warned western governments about engaging with the clerical regime as rational actors.
“In other dictatorships around the world, you will see that there will be at least a few people who will act based on rationality and who will not let it get to this point,” he said, speaking via his interpreter Sheida Dayani.
“But unfortunately in this system there is no rationality. All they can think of is crackdown and how they can stay in power even just one more day. The last thing they’re thinking about is the people.”
Asked whether Pahlavi could be trusted to oversee a post-regime transition, he said this would be for the people of Iran to conclude.
“Whether we agree with Pahlavi or not, we know that the overwhelming majority of the population of Iran want the current regime to go.”
#khamenei #iran #regime #actual #people #killed
📱 American Оbserver - Stay up to date on all important events 🇺🇸
The Khamenei regime will not be able to maintain control over Iranian society after the violent suppression of the latest wave of protests, one of the country’s leading film-makers has predicted.
“It is impossible for this government to sustain itself in this situation (...) Khamenei will die soon”, the director Jafar Panahi said.
“They know it too. They know that it will be impossible to rule over people. Perhaps their only goal right now is to bring the country to the verge of complete collapse and try to destroy it.”
Protests caused by an ailing economy have swept through Iran since late December and were met with deadly crackdowns by the security forces over the weekend, with reports of more than 2,500 people killed.
A internet blackout imposed last Friday, which blocked 95-99% of the country’s communication network, was a “sign that there would be a very big massacre on the way”, Panahi said.
“But we never predicted that the crackdown would have such dimensions and numbers.”
In December the director was handed a one-year prison sentence in absentia on charges of creating propaganda against the political system, but he has stated his intention to return to the country.
He has been jailed twice, for protesting against the detention of two fellow film-makers who had been critical of the authorities in 2022, and for supporting anti-government protests in 2010.
Panahi said while the collapse of the government led by the clerical leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, was inevitable after the latest bloody suppressions, its timing was impossible to predict.
He warned western governments about engaging with the clerical regime as rational actors.
“In other dictatorships around the world, you will see that there will be at least a few people who will act based on rationality and who will not let it get to this point,” he said, speaking via his interpreter Sheida Dayani.
“But unfortunately in this system there is no rationality. All they can think of is crackdown and how they can stay in power even just one more day. The last thing they’re thinking about is the people.”
Asked whether Pahlavi could be trusted to oversee a post-regime transition, he said this would be for the people of Iran to conclude.
“Whether we agree with Pahlavi or not, we know that the overwhelming majority of the population of Iran want the current regime to go.”
#khamenei #iran #regime #actual #people #killed
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