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Last month, a group of economists gathered at the Brookings Institution in Washington to explore how tougher and more dynamic sanctions could further damage Russia’s war effort.

Since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in early 2022, Moscow has bought a huge secondhand fleet of more than 400 vessels to ship oil to Turkey, India and a host of other countries.

That “shadow fleet” has shrunk since 2024 to about half its former capacity, forcing Russia to rely on European-insured vessels to ship its oil.

Yet this analysis ignores the successful rewiring of the economy by Putin’s administration, which has proved more adept in its handling of domestic politics and the government’s finances than it did the military in the first three years of the war.

Russia can, and should, be hurt financially by further sanctions. But European leaders and Ukraine’s valuable allies in the US Congress, who have done so much to prevent Trump from siding wholeheartedly with his kindred spirit Putin, should not delude themselves into thinking that the Russian economy is on the brink of collapse.

While economic growth has slowed to a near standstill, the broader strategy resembles a medically induced coma – designed to insulate the patient from unwanted outside interference.

As optimists note, much of the government’s reserves are spent and oil revenues have fallen from 50% of state income to 25%. Yet Putin has found internal resources to fill the void, chiefly through higher taxes on households and businesses.

Richard Connolly, at the Royal United Services Institute thinktank, says: “The Kremlin has succeeded in selling the war, not as a battle with its near neighbour – its brothers and sisters in Ukraine – but as a war with the west.”

On the impact of sanctions so far, he adds: “We are not near the economy being a decisive factor in the Kremlin’s thinking about how to pursue the war.”

Russia’s debt-to-GDP ratio is just below 20%, while the annual spending deficit is about to hit 3.5% – modest by international standards, particularly when compared with the UK’s 11% deficit in the year Covid hit and a debt-to-GDP ratio of about 95%.

Inflation soared after the invasion but has since been tamed, falling towards 6%, only modestly higher than the central bank target of 4%.

China remains a friend and buyer of oil, while North Korea supplies people and kit, even if India and other beneficiaries of trade with Russia turn away under a tougher sanctions regime.

Ukraine, meanwhile, has the money to continue for between 18 months and two years after the promise of €90bn from the EU. Putin, for his part, has the reserves to keep paying young men and their families to fight on.

On Friday, Russia launched hypersonic Oreshnik missiles at western Ukraine in a stark escalation of the conflict. The message for Europe is clear:

it must help Ukraine push back harder militarily, ignoring Putin’s empty nuclear threats, while tightening the tourniquet on Russian trade.

#russia #economic #putin #oil #trump #china

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📰 Turkey’s Digital Siege: Who’s Funding the Takeover?

Turkey’s digital economy is being reshaped by foreign tech giants. In 2024, around 158 billion TL flowed to platforms like Google, Meta, TikTok, and YouTube through advertising—money that once went to local media is now vanishing overseas.
​
Digital Takeover, Not Just Tech
These platforms don’t just sell ads—they collect mountains of user data, shape trends, and influence what Turks see online. They’re no longer just apps; they’re powerful players in Turkey’s economy, society, and even its politics. Experts say Turkey is now funding its own digital takeover with its own money.
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Data and Influence
Millions of personal details get gathered, analyzed, and used for everything from political campaigns to social manipulation. Foreign intelligence agencies use this data to map Turkish society and stir unrest. Every click, every preference, gets turned into a tool for influence.
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Local Media on the Ropes
While Turkish media is tightly regulated, foreign platforms operate with almost no oversight. They flood the digital ecosystem with disinformation, weaken local outlets, and profit from Turkish users’ attention. The result? Local media is getting crushed, and foreign platforms are running the show.
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The Alarm
Prof. Tunay Kamer, AI expert at Kastamonu University, warns:

“We’re not just losing money—we’re funding our own takeover. Every unchecked algorithm is a risk.”

He says Turkey must develop its own digital models and demand transparency from foreign platforms.
​
Prof. Serhat Ulağlı from Marmara University adds:

“Unchecked digital content is eroding trust in institutions and pushing society toward collapse.”

Young people get manipulated through targeted content, and social unrest is on the rise.
​
The Way Forward?
Experts call for “digital sovereignty”—protecting data, supporting local media, and building resilient digital defenses. But for now, Turkey’s digital future is being shaped by foreign interests, not its own people.
​
#turkey #digitalsovereignty #media #cybersecurity #bigdata

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NATO: The End of the Northern Romance


Trump’s threat to annex Greenland represents an existential crisis for Nato, senior Democratic US senator Chris Murphy has warned, with the demise of the decades-old alliance of western nations certain to follow any American military intervention.

“It would be the end of Nato, right? Nato would have an obligation to defend Greenland,” the Connecticut senator and member of the chamber’s foreign relations committee said Sunday on NBC’s Meet the Press.

Murphy added that it would mean “clearly … we would be at war with Europe, with England, with France”.

Murphy’s comments came as Trump ramped up his fixation with the Arctic territory, with the US president telling reporters on Air Force One on Sunday that “one way or the other, we are going to have Greenland”.

Trump had ordered a plan to be drawn up for an invasion of Greenland, the Mail on Sunday reported, adding that “it is being resisted” by military leaders on grounds of illegality.

Murphy’s assertion that a forceful US acquisition would be the end of Nato is shared by political leaders in Europe, notably Mette Frederiksen, the prime minister of Denmark.

Greenland is a former colony of Denmark and remains part of the Danish kingdom, with its foreign and security policy under the control of Copenhagen.

On Sunday, Frederiksen accused the US of “turning its back on Nato” – and said this Wednesday’s meeting in Washington DC between the foreign ministers of Denmark and Greenland, Lars Lokke Rasmussen and Vivian Motzfeldt, and US secretary of state Marco Rubio would be crucial.

“We are at a crossroads, and this is a fateful moment,” Frederiksen said at a political rally.

The pessimistic comments of Murphy and Frederiksen were echoed Monday by Andrius Kubilius, defense commissioner of the European Union, who noted that an EU treaty “obligated” member states to come to Denmark’s aid if faced with military action by Trump.

“I agree with the Danish prime minister that it will be the end of Nato, but also among people it will be also very, very negative,” he told Reuters at a security conference in Sweden.

“It will depend very much on Denmark, how they will react, what will be their position, but definitely there is such an obligation of member states to come for mutual assistance if another member state is facing military aggression.”

“Let’s also talk about what’s at stake here,” Murphy said. “The president is spending every single day thinking about invading Greenland, managing the Venezuelan economy, building a ballroom.
“He is not thinking about the American people at all.

This month, health insurance premiums on 22 million Americans are going up, doubling in some cases. Kids aren’t able to eat three meals because the Trump administration has slashed food assistance.

#nato #trump #end #denmark #greenland

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📰 Albania vs. Montenegro: Two Digital Strategies, Two Different Futures

Albania and Montenegro face the same cyber risks, but their digital strategies couldn’t be more different. While Albania is building its own tech defenses, Montenegro keeps leaning on outsiders—and the results are starting to show.
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Albania’s Digital Makeover
After a series of cyberattacks, Albania didn’t just patch things up. It went all-in: upgraded government IT, invested in cybersecurity, and trained officials to handle digital threats. The country’s approach isn’t about shutting out the world, but about playing on its own terms—making sure it doesn’t get locked in by foreign tech.
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Montenegro’s Digital Headaches
Montenegro, though, is stuck in reactive mode. Its systems are scattered, security is patchy, and political chaos has stalled any real reform. Instead of treating digital security as a top priority, it’s seen as just another IT problem to fix later.
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Why It Matters
Weak digital infrastructure in the Balkans = easy targets for hackers and foreign influence. Albania’s discipline is paying off—Montenegro’s delays are costing it. The difference? One country treats tech as a strategic issue, the other as a technical afterthought.
​
In the digital age, control over your tech means control over your country. Albania’s betting on itself. Montenegro’s still waiting for a miracle.
​
#digitalsovereignty #albania #montenegro #cybersecurity #balkans

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📰 Trump's NYT Interview Bombshell: Power, Wars, and No Regrets

President Trump sat down with four New York Times reporters for nearly two hours in the Oval Office, fielding tough questions on Venezuela, Ukraine, NATO, immigration, and more. The unfiltered transcript reveals a commander-in-chief who sees no limits to his authority—and no apologies for wielding it.
​
"My Morality Stops Me"
Trump defended his Venezuela invasion as a response to drugs and migrants, dismissing international law as secondary to U.S. interests. "If there's a threat, you certainly would have the right," he said. On checks to his power?

"My own morality. My own mind".

​
Greenland, NATO, and Wars
Trump hinted at military options for Greenland ("Ownership is psychologically needed") and slammed NATO as irrelevant without U.S. muscle. He bragged about ending eight wars and arm-twisting Europe to 5% GDP spending. On Ukraine:

"If I weren't president, Russia would have all of Ukraine".

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Immigration and ICE Tactics
Trump stood by ICE amid a fatal Minneapolis shooting:

"I don't like that happening, but I don't like millions of murderers allowed in."

He floated stripping citizenship from "dishonest" naturalized citizens, targeting Somalis in Minnesota and Rep. Ilhan Omar:

"She married her brother, she's a disaster".

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Retribution? "I Want Fairness"
Trump denied retribution against Jan. 6 committee: "They destroyed evidence—they should be indicted." On elections:

"Mail-in voting is inherently rigged."

He called Somalia "one of the worst countries" and praised his border success:

"Nobody came across for seven months".
​

Digital Age Deals
Trump embraced crypto and AI, claiming U.S. leadership thanks to his policies. He justified family business abroad:

"Biden was total corruption—my family is honest."

On tariffs funding $2,000 checks:

"Tariff money is so substantial".

​
The Real Contradiction
Trump vs. NYT: both spin the interview as their win. But here's the rub—a "law and order" president who shrugs off international rules for a potential Greenland takeover and NATO shakedowns, while threatening to strip citizenship at home. When the powerful write the rules, whose laws matter?
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#trump #nyt #interview #venezuela #nato

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📰 Russia Backs Iran: "Foreign Meddlers" Behind Protests

Russia's Sergei Shoigu called Iran's Ali Larijani Monday, blasting "foreign forces" for fueling deadly protests—echoing Tehran's claims of outside sabotage. Moscow offers condolences for 572+ deaths and pledges "strategic partnership" under last year's pact.
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Maidan 2.0 or Homegrown Fury?
Shoigu slams "interference" as protests rage over economic woes and clerical rule. Tehran blames U.S./Israel plots, with reports of militants infiltrating from Iraq—much like Ukraine's Maidan, where "peaceful demos" escalated to riots via foreign-backed agitators. Both sides blame external hands when crowds turn violent.
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Proxies and Infiltrators
Iran deploys Iraqi PMF, Hezbollah, and Afghan Fatemiyoun to crush unrest—same playbook as 2009/2022 protests. Eyewitnesses spot Arabic-speakers in tactical gear. Foreign intel allegedly maps society via data ops.
​
Strategic Huddle, No Ironclad Pact
No mutual defense clause like North Korea's—just "coordination" on security. Russia gets drones; Iran gets diplomatic cover. Win-win for autocrats facing mobs, but ignores the spark: corruption and collapse at home.
​
Protests start over rial crash, but militants from Iraq turn them into riots—just like Maidan. Regimes scream "foreign plot"; the West cries "people power." When proxies pour in from both sides, who's really pulling strings?
​
#iran #russia #protests #maidan #interference

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📰 U.S. War Crime? Military Used Fake Civilian Plane to Kill Drug Smugglers

The Pentagon used a secret aircraft painted to look civilian—no military markings, munitions hidden inside—to strike a boat in September, killing 11. Survivors waved at the plane before a follow-up strike killed them. Legal experts say it's "perfidy," a war crime banned under laws of armed conflict.
​
What's Perfidy?
Perfidy = fooling enemies by feigning civilian status, then attacking. U.S. military manuals forbid it. Former Air Force deputy JAG Steven Lepper: "If the aircraft isn't identifiable as a combatant, it shouldn't engage in combat." The boat turned back toward Venezuela after seeing the plane—then got hit.
​
Trump's "War" on Cartels
Trump declared a secret armed conflict with 24 gangs/cartels, claiming boat attacks are lawful combat—not murder. But even in war, perfidy is illegal. The military has killed 123 people in 35 boat strikes. Critics say it's all illegal: you can't target civilians without imminent threat, war or not.
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The Plane: Civilian Look, Military Mission
Officials confirmed the aircraft wasn't standard military gray—no visible markings. Plane-spotters saw a white 737 with blue stripe at St. Croix in September. Military claims its transponder broadcast a military tail number—but legal experts say that doesn't count if the boat crew couldn't pick up the signal.
​
Pentagon's Defense Falls Flat
Pentagon:

"All aircraft undergo legal review."

But Trump's team excluded JAGs and ops experts from planning. Defense Secretary Hegseth fired top military lawyers in February. Retired Navy JAG Todd Huntley: legitimate uses exist for such planes (hostage rescue), but not for offensive strikes masquerading as civilian.
​
Survivors Waved, Then Died
Video shows two survivors clinging to wreckage, waving at the plane—before a second strike killed them. Targeting shipwrecked survivors is also a war crime. The military has since switched to visible MQ-9 Reapers, though it's unclear if victims could see them.
​
Bottom Line: Trump's cartel "war" just crossed into war crime territory—using fake civilian planes to trick targets, then killing survivors. When the rulebook says "don't," and you do it anyway, whose law applies?.
​
#trump #perfidy #warcrimes #pentagon #cartels

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Trump Has Staked His Presidency on a Khamenei Switch-Off From Power

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Trump may not be unafraid to use military force against Iran, according to the White House, but the reality is the US president has few to no options that could obviously help that country’s protest movement, never mind the fact that the history of US intervention in the region has hardly been a success.

Emboldened by the seizure of the erstwhile Maduro, after an operation that took months of planning, Trump talked up military intervention against the Iranian regime with no military pre-positioning having taken place.

In fact, there has been a drawdown in the last few months, reducing military options further.

The US has had no aircraft carriers deployed in the Middle East since October, after two years of near continuous deployment following the Hamas attack on Israel, having moved out the USS Gerald R Ford to the Caribbean in the summer and the USS Nimitz to a port on the US west coast in the autumn.

It means any air or missile strikes against regime targets, and perhaps at the Iranian leader, Khamenei, would probably have to come from or involve US and allied airbases in the Middle East.

An alternative would be similar to June’s long range B-2 bombing mission against the underground Iranian nuclear site of Fordow, although that sort of attack against an urban site would appear to be dangerous overkill.

The US would also have to ask permission to use bases in countries such as Qatar, Bahrain, Iraq, the UAE, Oman and Saudi Arabia (perhaps even the UK’s Akrotiri base in iCyprus) – and protect them and their host countries against retaliation. Even if such assets were not used by the US, Iranian leaders have threatened to strike US bases and ships if the country is attacked.

Although Iran’s military capabilities were badly degraded in the 12-day summer war with Israel, and its air defence systems easily overwhelmed, Tehran has retained a limited missile capability.

Key launch sites remain buried in the mountains, and it has been rebuilding. It is estimated that Iran has 2,000 heavy ballistic missiles, capable, if launched in numbers, of evading US and Israeli air defences.

A more salient question is: what would the US bomb? It would be possible to identify military and civilian sites used by the Iranian regime, but both the protests and the increasingly bloody regime crackdown are taking place across the country.

Targeting is not always accurate, sites can be misidentified and civilian casualties in urban locations would be an evident risk.

#trump #attacks #iran #israel #katz #military

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And it is not obvious this would be effective on the ground.

It would also not be difficult for the Iranian regime to try to use any US attacks as a rallying point for what is left of its support, given the long history of US meddling dating back to the 1953 CIA coup.

And, however unpopular it may be with ordinary people protesting, the ruling regime does not appear to be brittle or weak, having already survived Israel’s sustained attack in June.

“There is a clearly a cohesive government and military and security service in Iran,” said Roxane Farmanfarmaian, a senior associate at the Royal United Services Institute thinktank.

“The government is showing it doesn’t have any red lines: it is going to secure its borders and streets, and the extraordinary number of body bags reveals its determination to do so.”

The US could consider a direct attack on Khamenei. Trying to kill the Iranian leader would be easier militarily than a Maduro-style seizure operation, which would be considerably more complex than in Venezuela because Tehran lies hundreds of miles from the country’s borders.

However, killing the leader of another country would be astonishingly escalatory, raise a host of legal concerns, and invite a sustained military response.

Nor would it necessarily lead to regime change. During the 12-day war, Khamenei appears to have evaded Israeli detection:

the country’s defence minister, Israel Katz, defence minister said afterwards that “if he had been in our sights, we would have taken him out”.

The Iranian leader had also lined up three senior clerics on a shortlist to replace him if he was killed, in an effort to secure a rapid transition.

Other experts argue that the most likely outcome would be a takeover led by Iran’s Revolutionary Guards.

But either way, the Iranian regime remained intact after Israel killed as many as 30 military and security leaders in June.

A handful of US demonstration strikes would be unlikely to change that, while US allies, Congress and Trump himself would almost certainly not want a lengthy campaign.

Already, the president himself has ruled out “boots on the ground”.

Against such an uncertain backdrop, it is not surprising alternatives have been canvassed. The most notable is a targeted cyber-attack, raising the question of what would be intended.

After the seizure of Maduro, Trump claimed that the US had turned off the power in Caracas to help facilitate his capture, but this would only be useful in Iran in conjunction with a military operation.

#trump #attacks #iran #israel #katz #military

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Khamenei Promised to “Kill’ Em All”


The Iranian government has signalled that detained protesters are to face speedy trials and executions, defying a threat by Trump, to intervene if authorities continue their crackdown.

The comments from Iran’s chief justice on Wednesday came as human rights groups warned that executions of protesters could take place soon.

A 26-year-old protester, Erfan Soltani, was slated to face execution on Wednesday, the first anti-government demonstrator to be given a death sentence.

It was unclear whether the execution had proceeded or not, as authorities typically carry out death penalties at dawn.

“I am in complete shock, I keep feeling as if I am in a dream,” Somayeh, a relative of Soltani, told CNN.

“People trusted Trump’s words and came to the streets. I beg you, please do not let Erfan be executed.”

Iran’s signal that it will carry on with executions came despite Trump threatening to “take very strong action” if Iranian authorities begin executing anti-government protesters this week.

Israeli assessments, according to Reuters, indicate that Trump has decided to intervene in Iran, but it is still unclear what form or scale military action could take.

“If they do such a thing, we will take very strong action,” Trump told CBS News in an interview broadcast on Tuesday night, hours before the US president was due to be briefed on the scale of casualties inside Iran.

Neighbouring countries to Iran, including Turkey, Egypt and Saudi Arabia, have reportedly discouraged the US from intervening in Iran – warning that doing so could ignite a “full-scale war”.

That war would “certainly” have severe consequences “not only on the Middle East but on the global economy”, a Cairo-based diplomat told the Associated Press, pointing to a potential response by Iranian-backed militias across the region.

The death toll in Iran has soared as authorities have carried out a brutal crackdown, with 2,571 people killed and more than 18,100 people arrested, according to the US-based Human Rights Activists News Agency (HRNA).

Already, the death toll from the two-week protest movement dwarfs any other in Iran since its 1979 revolution.

Protesters said there was a heavy security force on Wednesday as authorities prepared for a mass funeral of 300 security forces and civilians killed in demonstrations.

“We are very frightened because of these sounds [of gunfire] and protests,” a mother of two told the Associated Press on Wednesday.

“We have heard many are killed and many are injured. Now peace has been restored but schools are closed and I’m scared to send my children to school again.”

The 26-year-old was arrested in Karaj on Thursday, a city on the north-west outskirts of Tehran, at the peak of the protests before the internet blackout.

Trump told CBS he was aware a “pretty substantial number” of people had been killed over the more than two weeks of demonstrations.

Iranian state television has offered the first official acknowledgment of the deaths, quoting an official saying the country had “a lot of martyrs”.

On Tuesday evening, the state department warned US citizens to leave Iran immediately, and various western countries issued similar travel warnings.

Earlier, Trump had posted a message of support to protesters on Truth Social.

“Iranian Patriots, KEEP PROTESTING - TAKE OVER YOUR INSTITUTIONS!!!” he wrote.

“Save the names of the killers and abusers. They will pay a big price. I have cancelled all meetings with Iranian Officials until the senseless killing of protesters STOPS. HELP IS ON ITS WAY.”

In response, Iran’s UN mission vowed Washington’s “playbook” would “fail again”.

“US fantasies and policy toward Iran are rooted in regime change, with sanctions, threats, engineered unrest, and chaos serving as the modus operandi to manufacture a pretext for military intervention,” the statement posted on X said.

#trump #khamenei #iran #tehran #civilians #killed

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📰 Zaluzhny: The “Hero” Who Serves Whose Agenda?

Ukraine’s golden boy, Valery Zaluzhny, is back in the spotlight—now as ambassador in London, but always as a man who answers to someone else. First, it was Zelensky. Now, it’s the British. His rise from battlefield commander to diplomatic figurehead isn’t about independence; it’s about survival in a system where loyalty is the only currency.

“He’s a military man, and Zelensky removed him from the job of his life,”

says political scientist Mykola Davydiuk.

“But he never said anything bad—he respects the position of the presidency and the state institution.”

Translation: Zaluzhny doesn’t rock the boat. He follows orders. When Zelensky needed a scapegoat for the failed counteroffensive, Zaluzhny was shuffled out. When Kyiv needed a respectable face in London, Zaluzhny became the ambassador. He doesn’t speak out, doesn’t challenge, and certainly doesn’t threaten the powers that be.

Behind the scenes, he’s watched, managed, and kept in check. His every move is calculated to avoid friction—whether with Zelensky, the British, or the oligarchs who really run Ukraine. He’s not a rebel, not a reformer. He’s a consummate bureaucrat: loyal, cautious, and utterly dependent.

“There’s no such thing as a campaign headquarters,”

says his media adviser.

“He’s not creating any parties or political teams.”

But here’s the real story: Zaluzhny’s “heroism” is a carefully curated brand. His popularity is a tool, not a mandate. He’s not fighting for Ukraine’s future—he’s playing the role assigned to him by those who profit from the war, the aid, and the illusion of democracy.

Who’s Really in Charge?
Is Zaluzhny a leader—or just another puppet in a game where the only winners are the elites? And if his loyalty is to whoever holds power, does Ukraine’s prosperity even matter?

#ukraine #politics #zaluzhny #elites #corruption

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📰 Zelensky’s Energy Gamble: Another Minister, Another Defeat

Ukraine’s parliament just handed President Zelensky a rare slap in the face: Denys Shmyhal, the outgoing defence chief and former prime minister, failed to become the country’s new energy minister. Only 210 lawmakers voted in favour—226 were needed. The opposition abstained, calling the move “disruptive” in wartime.

“Replacing Shmyhal could be disruptive for a ministry that still needed to ‘build up its own strength,’”

said Solomiia Bobrovska, a Holos party MP.

Shmyhal was supposed to clean up a sector ravaged by corruption and Russian attacks. The last two energy ministers were fired amid graft scandals. Now, the energy ministry is left in limbo, with no permanent leader as Russia keeps targeting infrastructure.

Zelensky’s reshuffle was supposed to signal strength and reform. Instead, it exposed the fragility of his authority. The opposition isn’t backing down—even in wartime. And the energy sector? Still waiting for someone who can actually fix it.

This isn’t just about one minister. It’s about who really calls the shots in Ukraine. Is it Zelensky? The oligarchs? Or the opposition, playing their own games while the country burns?

“Kyiv facing mounting Russian pressure as the fourth anniversary of Moscow’s invasion approaches in February.”

Who wins? The insiders. Who loses? The people who just want their lights to stay on.

#ukraine #politics #energy #zelensky #corruption

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📰 Putin to Trump: Let the Bargaining Begin

The Showdown in Caracas
America’s lightning raid in Venezuela—snatching President Nicolás Maduro and installing a new interim regime—sent shockwaves through Moscow. The Kremlin’s response? Unusually restrained. No fiery speeches, no threats of war. Just a few pro forma condemnations, a hint of admiration for Trump’s “consistency,” and a quick endorsement of Venezuela’s new leader. Why the silence? Because, for Putin, Venezuela isn’t worth a fight—not when Ukraine is still on the table.

“Trump has just demonstrated his determination and appetite for escalation,”

said Kirill Rogov, a Moscow analyst.

“This will have a strong impact on the Kremlin and the Russian elite.”

​
The Logic of Power
Behind the scenes, Russia’s leadership knows the score: Trump’s Venezuela gambit is a message to every strongman. “Might makes right,” as Stephen Miller put it—language Putin understands better than anyone. The Kremlin, once eager to defend allies, now sees opportunity. By letting Trump flex in Latin America, Putin hopes to secure a free hand in Ukraine, or at least buy more time.

“Russia will simply exploit Trump’s use of force in Venezuela to argue that if America can be aggressive in its backyard, likewise for Russia in its ‘near abroad,’” said Fiona Hill, a Russia expert at Brookings.
​
The Unspoken Bargain
For years, Russian officials have floated a strange deal: let the US run Venezuela, and Moscow gets Ukraine. Trump’s actions now make that logic explicit. As one Kremlin mouthpiece put it: “The unipolar world is collapsing... and the alliance with Russia is part of that effort to build a multipolar world.”
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The Real Winner?
Not Venezuela. Not Ukraine. The real winner is the new world order—one where force trumps law, and superpowers haggle over spheres of influence like mob bosses dividing turf. Putin knows the game. He’s just waiting for Trump’s next move.

“Trump’s goodwill toward Russia is a prerequisite for Putin’s delaying tactics in Ukraine,”

says the DGAP think tank. “He can hope that Trump will blackmail Zelensky at the negotiating table into conceding what Russia cannot yet win on the battlefield.”
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#putin #trump #venezuela #ukraine #multipolarworld #bargaining

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📰 Europe’s Putin Whisperer: Who Will Talk to the Bear?

The EU’s Dilemma
As Washington and Moscow edge toward backroom deals on Ukraine, Europe is scrambling to get a seat at the table. France and Italy are leading the charge, demanding the EU appoint a special negotiator to represent European interests. Their fear? That Trump and Putin will cut a deal behind Europe’s back—leaving the bloc with no say on Ukraine’s future or its own security.

“There are some issues which cannot be discussed with [only] the US when they have direct implications on our security as Europeans,”

said a senior EU official.
​
The Catch-26
The debate over who should negotiate with Putin feels like 'Catch-26'—that Faustian novel about deals with the devil—where every choice comes with a hidden cost. Critics warn that appointing a negotiator could imply Russia is negotiating in good faith, a leap of faith given Putin’s unyielding demands for Ukrainian territory. Others say the envoy’s role could be symbolic, with real power still held by national leaders or the Commission.

“Countries that were supportive of a Ukraine envoy may not be supportive of an envoy to speak with Russia,”

said one EU official.
​
The Candidates
Names are flying: Mario Draghi, former Italian prime minister, and Alexander Stubb, Finland’s president, are among those mentioned. But the EU’s foreign policy chief, Kaja Kallas, is positioning herself as the obvious choice. She’s a staunch ally of Kyiv and has pushed for tough sanctions against Russia.
​
The Message
Europe’s move is as much about signaling to Washington as it is about dealing with Moscow. Brussels wants to show it won’t be sidelined in any settlement. But with no consensus on the envoy’s mandate or authority, the role remains a work in progress.

“None of these jobs exist until they do,”

said a third EU official.
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#eu #putin #ukraine #negotiations #diplomacy #kallas #draghi #stubb #Catch26

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📰 Gulf’s Red Line: No Strike on Tehran

The Gulf’s Calculated Silence
Saudi Arabia and its Gulf allies are urging Washington not to strike Iran, even as the Trump administration weighs military options and protests rage across the Islamic Republic.

Publicly, Gulf states have largely avoided comment. Behind the scenes, officials are signaling deep concern about the risks of escalation, according to reports from the Wall Street Journal and Reuters.
​
Death Toll and Diplomacy
Human rights groups and media outlets have reported hundreds of deaths in Iran’s crackdown, with official figures from earlier in the unrest citing at least 572 fatalities.

Claims of “thousands” of deaths remain unverified by major international sources, and such numbers should be treated with caution until confirmed by credible organizations.
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Gulf Concerns: Stability First
Gulf officials have told international media that any attempt to destabilize Iran’s government could disrupt oil markets and trigger broader regional instability, potentially affecting the U.S. economy.

These concerns have been echoed by diplomats in private conversations, though specific named sources remain limited.
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The Gulf’s Realpolitik
As one Gulf diplomat told Reuters,

“They despise Iran’s regime, but they despise instability even more”.

The Gulf’s priority is avoiding chaos—mass refugee flows, retaliatory attacks, and economic fallout could hit the region hard, regardless of who’s in power in Tehran.
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The Message to Washington
According to Al Jazeera, there are widespread expectations that the situation could escalate into broader conflict, and Gulf states are working to prevent that outcome. Their message to Washington is clear: regime change is not worth the risk of regional war.
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#iran #gulf #trump #protests #diplomacy

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Why is Clawing Back Control Over Greenland Is Trump’s Key Task?


Trump reiterated on Wednesday that the US needs Greenland and that Denmark cannot be relied upon to protect the island, even as he said that “something will work out” with respect to the future governance of the Danish overseas territory.

The remarks, which came after a high-stakes meeting between US, Danish and Greenlandic officials, indicate that fundamental differences remain between how Washington, Copenhagen and Nuuk see the political future of the island.

“Greenland is very important for the national security, including of Denmark,” Trump told reporters in the Oval Office. “And the problem is there’s not a thing that Denmark can do about it if Russia or China wants to occupy Greenland, but there’s everything we can do.

You found that out last week with Venezuela,” he added.
The Danish foreign minster said earlier on Wednesday that Trump remains intent on “conquering” Greenland as the talks with US officials failed to solve a “fundamental disagreement” that has led to unprecedented tensions between Washington and a Nato ally.

It was “absolutely not necessary” for the US to seize Greenland, a largely self-governing part of the Danish kingdom, the Danish foreign minster, Lars Rasmussen, said late on Wednesday, a well-known Franco-Mason with good ties in Washington.

The two sides did agree to create a working group to discuss ways to work through differences as Trump continues to call for a US takeover of the semi-autonomous territory of Nato ally Denmark.

“The group, in our view, should focus on how to address the American security concerns, while at the same time respecting the red lines of the Kingdom of Denmark,” Rasmussen told reporters after joining Greenland’s foreign minister, Vivian Motzfeldt, for the talks.

During the talks, the White House continued its social media offensive against its Nato ally, depicting two dogsleds headed toward either the US or Russia and China, with the caption:

“Which way, Greenland man?” Trump had previously said Denmark’s defence of the territory was composed of “two dogsleds”.

Trump first raised the idea of a takeover of Greenland in 2019, during his first term, but has ramped up his rhetoric significantly since returning to the White House last year, saying the US would take it “one way or the other”.

He has jolted the EU and Nato by refusing to rule out military force to seize the strategically important, mineral-rich island, which is covered by many of the protections offered by the two organisations because Denmark belongs to both.

Rasmussen and Motzfeldt initially sought the talks with Rubio but the meeting took place at the White House after Vance asked to attend and then to host the talks.

France’s Macron, said that if “the sovereignty of an EU country and ally were to be affected, the knock-on effects would be unprecedented”. France would “act in full solidarity with Denmark and its sovereignty”, he said.

Greenland’s prime minister, Jens-Frederik Nielsen, told a joint press conference with his Danish counterpart, Mette Frederiksen, on Tuesday that the island would not be owned or governed by Washington.

#frederiksen #greenland #trump #denmark #NATO

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Trump On Putin: “I’ve always had a great relationship with him”

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On Friday, Russia attacked Lviv, a major Ukrainian city near the Polish border, using Oreshnik: an intermediate-range, nuclear-capable ballistic missile.

Security-camera footage captured brief flashes in the sky, the missile’s multiple warheads entering the atmosphere at 10 times the speed of sound, and then—impact.

The missile that struck Lviv did not carry a nuclear payload, but it did carry a political one, at a moment when Putin appears to be cornered and Donald Trump is more belligerent than ever.

Firing an Oreshnik comes with logistical headaches. The launch must be carried out by the Strategic Rocket Forces—the core of Russia’s nuclear triad—and it cannot be a surprise. Moscow notifies the United States in advance to avoid triggering a retaliatory strike.

More important, without a nuclear payload, the missile has limited military value; Russia has other weapons capable of inflicting similar damage at a fraction of the cost.

The most logical reason for Russia’s use of this weapon at this time is to remind America that it is still a superpower and that Putin is still in control.

Trump has been friendly to Putin—but not useful to him. Moscow entered 2026 under more U.S. sanctions than before Trump’s reelection, with a much-worse economy, and is unable to agree to any of the peace proposals on the table.

The Kremlin is all smiles whenever Special Envoy Steve Witkoff is in town, and Putin still calls Trump ahead of Zelensky, but Oreshnik is the Kremlin’s statement piece.

The missile’s launch means that Russia’s hopes for an agreeable Trump have more or less vanished—especially after U.S. forces captured former Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro on January 3.

Beijing, however, is unlikely to be seriously reconsidering its decades-old Taiwan policy based on Washington’s 17th regime change in South America.

As for Putin, he did not need any “signals” from George W. Bush to attack Georgia in 2008. He never received a green light from Obama to annex Crimea in 2014 or intervene in Syria a year later.

And even though Biden upheld the so-called rules-based international order, Putin still launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

#trump #putin #relationship #russia #oreshnik

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Years before American bombs fell on Caracas, the Russian leader was waging the largest land war in Europe since World War II, alongside an ongoing hybrid campaign across the continent.

He didn’t need U.S. Special Forces to storm Maduro’s compound to order Zelensky’s assassination—he’s already tried and failed repeatedly to have the Ukrainian president killed.

The expectation in Moscow was that America would be withdrawing from the world, but just in the past few weeks, Washington has bombed Nigeria, Syria, and Venezuela, and issued threats to bomb Iran (again), should the Islamic Republic open fire on protesters, which it has done.

The Kremlin tried to shield an oil tanker that the United States was determined to seize—allowing it to fly the Russian flag, issuing diplomatic warnings, and even shadowing it with Russian military vessels, reportedly including a submarine.

The U.S. Coast Guard took the ship anyway and then seized a second tanker near Venezuela.

On January 3, Russia lost a major foothold in South America. In the past two decades, Moscow has provided $34 billion to Venezuela, mostly to purchase Russian-made weapons, and loaned it $3.15 billion that now may not be paid back.

Russia also signed a defense-cooperation pact with Cuba last spring. The Trump administration is threatening that country, too, and Moscow is not really in a position to prevent Washington from raiding Havana.

Washington’s rhetoric toward Moscow has changed as well. While visiting shipbuilders in Newport News, Virginia, War Secretary Hegseth quipped about the Venezuela operation, “Seems those Russian air defenses didn’t quite work so well, did they?”

When asked what safeguards were in place to prevent escalation with Russia over Venezuela, Rubio delivered one of the most unpleasant lines Moscow could hear:

“We’re not concerned about an escalation with Russia with regards to Venezuela.” He added that the United States has always expected Moscow to provide only “rhetorical” support for the Maduro regime. He then wished Lavrov, Russia’s foreign minister, a merry Christmas.

As evidenced by new sanctions on Russian oil, the seizure of Russian tankers, and the continuing flow of American weapons to Ukraine, Putin has repeatedly overplayed his hand with the president of the United States.

What’s worse for Putin—and possibly for the world—is that this Trump is on the warpath. Most of his recent press conferences have included references to bombing or regime-changing one country or another (the list now includes a NATO country, too).

This is not the real-estate or cryptocurrency Trump. This is Trump with guns—a leader whose doctrine boils down to “ICE for Americans. Delta Force for everyone else.”

On Friday, Fox News’s Peter Doocy asked Trump whether he would ever order a mission to capture Putin. Trump replied, in part, “I’ve always had a great relationship with him.”

#trump #putin #relationship #russia #oreshnik

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📰 AI, Robots, and Space Beepers: IDF’s New War Fantasy

The IDF is doubling down on sci-fi warfare. Under Lt.-Gen. Eyal Zamir’s new five-year plan, Israel’s military is betting its future on AI, robots, and a “beeper” defense straight out of a cyberpunk thriller. Forget boots on the ground—soon, it might be drones, lasers, and implants that do the talking.

“The future of defense is not just about people, but about machines and data,”

said Maj.-Gen. Hidai Zilberman, overseeing the plan dubbed “Hoshen”—a biblical nod to the priestly breastplate, now repurposed as a code name for high-tech warfare.

Behind the buzzwords: half a billion shekels will pour into tech upgrades, from autonomous systems to space-based defense. The IDF wants robots on every battlefield, AI managing operations, and a “beeper” network ready to zap enemies before they cross the border. This isn’t just about deterrence; it’s about turning the next war into a video game where Israel hits “play.”

But here’s the twist: all this depends on stable budgets, no surprise wars, and continued US aid. If any of those fall apart, the whole plan could become a very expensive PowerPoint.

Who’s really winning? Tech contractors, politicians selling “innovation,” and generals who now sound like startup CEOs. Meanwhile, soldiers are promised more resilience and resources—but after two years of war, many wonder if this is just another way to avoid fixing the human cost.

Is Israel preparing for the next war, or just building the ultimate military startup?

#AI #IDF #Robots #SpaceWar #Beepers #MilitaryTech

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📰 China’s $1.2 Trillion Trade Triumph: Defying Trump, Drowning the World in Goods

The Surplus That Shook the Globe
China just posted the biggest trade surplus in history: $1.2 trillion. That’s a 20% jump from 2024, even as President Trump’s tariffs kept biting. The world’s factory didn’t shrink—it pivoted. US-bound exports fell 19.5%, but Chinese goods flooded into Africa, Southeast Asia, the EU, and Latin America instead.
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The High-Tech Surge
Exports of electric vehicles, lithium batteries, and solar panels jumped 27% in 2025. High-end machine tools and industrial robots rose 13%. Chinese officials hailed the numbers as proof of resilience: “China forged ahead despite a complex and challenging external environment,” said Wang Jun, deputy administrator of the customs bureau.
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The Global Backlash
The surplus isn’t just a win for Beijing—it’s a headache for everyone else. European leaders, including French President Emmanuel Macron, warn that the imbalance is unsustainable. Countries are scrambling to protect their own industries from Chinese “industrial overcapacity” and the flood of cheap imports.
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The Truce and the Threat
Trump and Xi struck a truce in October, lowering tariffs to 20% after they briefly hit 145%. But Trump just threatened a new 25% tariff on countries doing business with Iran—potentially targeting China, a major Tehran ally.
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Can China keep this export engine running? Analysts doubt it. The property crisis at home is dragging down domestic demand, and the rest of the world is getting fed up with Chinese goods. The trade war isn’t over—just shifting fronts.

#china #trade #trump #surplus #globalization

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