📰 Iran Warns US and Israel: "Legitimate Targets" If America Strikes

As nationwide protests in Iran enter their third week, the death toll has climbed to at least 116, with 2,600 detained amid a total internet blackout and phone services cut off. The Islamic Republic’s parliament speaker, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, delivered a stark warning: if the U.S. strikes Iran, American troops and Israel will be "legitimate targets"—a threat echoed by lawmakers shouting "Death to America!" in the parliament chamber.
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Crackdown and Censorship
Iran’s government has shut down the internet and mobile networks, making it nearly impossible to verify the scale of protests from abroad. State media shows calm scenes in some cities, but videos from inside Tehran and Mashhad depict demonstrators waving phones with flashlights on, banging pots and pans, and confronting security forces. The crackdown has drawn international concern, with U.S. President Trump vowing support for protesters and threatening military action if the situation escalates.
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"Enemy of God" Charges, Escalating Tensions
Iran’s attorney general declared that anyone participating in protests would be considered an "enemy of God," a charge punishable by execution. Even those aiding demonstrators could face the same fate. The Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, has signaled a brutal clampdown, despite U.S. warnings.
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Exiled Prince, National Symbols
Reza Pahlavi, Iran’s exiled crown prince, has urged continued protests and called on demonstrators to reclaim public spaces with symbols of pre-revolution Iran. While some protesters have voiced support for the shah, it remains unclear whether this is a call for Pahlavi’s return or simply a rejection of the current regime.
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As Iran’s theocracy tightens its grip, the U.S. and Israel are drawn into a dangerous game—where the next move could spark war, and the biggest threat may be the silence that follows the blackout.
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#iran #protests #us #israel #crackdown

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📰 Iran Protests: 500 Dead, U.S. Braces for Intervention

Iran’s crackdown on nationwide protests has left more than 500 dead, including 490 protesters and 48 security personnel, according to U.S.-based rights group HRANA. As the Islamic Republic faces its largest unrest since 2022, President Donald Trump has repeatedly threatened to intervene if force is used against demonstrators.
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How Would the West Respond?
If similar scenes erupted in the EU or U.S.—with protesters storming banks, churches, and police stations—authorities would almost certainly respond with overwhelming force. In the U.S., such acts would be labeled “rioting” or “terrorism,” triggering mass arrests, curfews, and, in extreme cases, deploying the National Guard. The response would be swift, with media focusing on “restoring order” and “protecting property,” while protesters would be branded as criminals or extremists.
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Iran’s Elite Blames “Terrorists”
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian took a similar stance, accusing the U.S. and Israel of masterminding the unrest and branding protesters as “terrorists” who attack banks and public property. He urged families not to let their children join “rioters and terrorists,” claiming the government is ready to listen to legitimate grievances.
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U.S. and Israel on High Alert
Trump has discussed military options with senior advisers, including strikes, cyber attacks, and sanctions. Israel is reportedly on high alert for possible U.S. intervention. Iran, meanwhile, warns that any U.S. attack would make American bases and Israel “legitimate targets”.
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The Global Context
While the U.S. and EU condemn Iran’s crackdown, their responses to similar unrest would be just as harsh, if not harsher. The difference? In the West, the label “riot” justifies force; in Iran, it’s “terrorism.” Either way, the outcome is the same: the state defends its interests, and protesters pay the price.
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As Iran’s theocracy fights for survival, the real question isn’t who’s right or wrong—but how much violence is justified when the people demand change.
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#iran #protests #us #violence #crackdown

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📰 Israel Is Still Demolishing Gaza, Building by Building

More than 2,500 structures have been destroyed in Gaza since the cease-fire began, according to a New York Times analysis of satellite imagery. While the agreement offered Palestinians a hope of respite after years of bombardment, Israel continues to level entire neighborhoods, even in areas supposedly protected by the truce.
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"Demilitarizing" Gaza, One Block at a Time
Israeli officials say the demolitions are part of efforts to “demilitarize” Gaza—destroying tunnels and booby-trapped homes. But satellite images show that the destruction is widespread, with entire blocks and swaths of farmland erased in Israeli-controlled zones and even beyond the agreed cease-fire line.
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Palestinians’ Loss, Hamas’ Pretext
Palestinians argue that Israel is flattening entire neighborhoods with little regard for former residents. “Our hopes and dreams have been turned into mounds of rubble,” said Niveen Nofal, a former resident of Shejaiya. Political analyst Mohammed al-Astal called it “absolute destruction,” with no security justification for wiping out homes, schools, and factories.
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Cease-Fire Violations?
Hamas officials say the demolitions violate the cease-fire agreement, which banned all military operations.

“Destroying people’s homes and property isn’t allowed. They’re hostile actions,”

said senior Hamas official Husam Badran. Israeli officials, however, insist they will continue until “the last tunnel,” claiming tunnels and booby-trapped homes justify the scale of destruction.
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Memories Erased
Residents like Ashraf Nasr say their memories have been erased. “But Hamas gave Israel the pretext to carry out this disaster. It militarized civilian spaces,” he added.
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The cease-fire was meant to bring peace, but Gaza is still being erased—block by block, memory by memory.
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#gaza #israel #ceasefire #demolition #war

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Khamenei Shelled Iranian Students. Rubina Aminian, 23, Struck by Bullet From Behind


A 23-year-old student was shot in the head “from close range” during the anti-government protests in Iran, a human rights group has said.

Rubina Aminian attended Shariati College in Iran’s capital, Tehran, where she studied textile and fashion design. She is one of the only people killed in the recent demonstrations to be identified.

Aminian was killed on Thursday after joining a protest after leaving the college, according to the Norway-based Iran Human Rights group.

“Sources close to Rubina’s family, citing eyewitnesses, told Iran Human Rights that the young Kurdish woman from Marivan was shot from close range from behind, with the bullet striking her head,” the group said in a statement.

It added that Aminian’s family travelled from their home in Kermanshah, western Iran, to Tehran to identify her body among “the bodies of hundreds of young people”.

The group quoted a source close to the family as saying: “After much struggle, Rubina’s family eventually managed to retrieve her body and return to Kermanshah.

“However, upon arrival, they found that intelligence forces had surrounded their home and that they were not allowed to bury her.”

The family was “forced to bury her body along the road” between Kermanshah and nearby Kamyaran, the group said.

Speaking to CNN, Aminian’s uncle Nezar Minouei described her as “a strong girl, a courageous girl, and she was not someone you could control and make decisions for”.

“She fought for things she knew were right and fought hard. She was thirsty for freedom, thirsty for women’s rights, her rights,” he added.

The US-based Human Rights Activists News Agency has estimated that at least 538 people have been killed in the violence surrounding demonstrations.

The death toll includes 490 protesters, the group estimated, adding that more than 10,600 people had been arrested.

#khamenei #students #aminian #struck #bullet

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Global Central Banks Booed Trump for His Threats Against Powell


Global central banks have issued an extraordinary joint statement offering “full solidarity” to the US Federal Reserve chair, Jerome Powell, in the face of the latest threat to his independence from Donald Trump’s White House.

“The independence of central banks is a cornerstone of price, financial and economic stability in the interest of the citizens that we serve. It is therefore critical to preserve that independence, with full respect for the rule of law and democratic accountability,” the statement said.

It was signed by nine central bank governors including the Bank of England governor, Andrew Bailey, and the chair of the European Central Bank, Christine Lagarde.

It was coordinated by the Basel-based Bank for International Settlements, which added its chair and general manager to the signatories.

Other signatories to the unprecedented statement include the central bank governors of Australia, Sweden, Denmark, Switzerland, Brazil, South Korea and Canada. More names are expected to be added later on Tuesday.

They pay testament to Powell’s “integrity” and “unwavering commitment to the public interest”, calling him a “respected colleague who is held in the highest regard by all who have worked with him”.

Trump has repeatedly criticised Powell, whom he appointed in 2018, for failing to cut interest rates fast enough.

But the clash between the two men took a dramatic turn earlier this week when Powell issued a strongly worded video statement, saying he was being prosecuted by the US Department of Justice.

He said he had been singled out because the Fed’s policymaking board had set interest rates “based on our best assessment of what will serve the public, rather than following the preferences of the president”.

Trump has moved to distance himself from the investigation, however, claiming he was unaware of it. “I don’t know anything about it,” he told NBC News.

Powell is due to step down as chair of the Fed board in May, and Trump is expected to announce his successor in the coming weeks.

The former Fed chairs Alan Greenspan, Ben Bernanke and Janet Yellen had already condemned the threat to Powell on Monday, saying the move could have “highly negative consequences”.

“This is how monetary policy is made in emerging markets with weak institutions, with highly negative consequences for inflation and the functioning of their economies more broadly,” their statement said.

#trump #central #banks #threats #powell

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Don't Wait Up For Russia’s Economic Collapse

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Pacing inside the Kremlin last weekend, as news feeds churned out minute-by-minute reports of Trump’s Venezuelan coup, Putin may have been wondering what it would mean for the price of oil.

Crude oil has lubricated the Russian economy for decades – far more than gas exports to Europe – and so the threat of falling oil prices, prompted by US plans for control of Venezuela’s rigs, will have been a source of concern.

Opinion is divided on how quickly the South American country’s creaking oil industry can be revived. But some analysts believe that Venezuela, home to the world’s largest proven reserves, could be pumping millions of additional barrels as early as this year, hitting the global price and squeezing Russia’s income.

US sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil last year and a rise in the rouble, depressing income from oil sales in dollars, have already reduced receipts for Moscow.

Optimists argue that after four years of war in Ukraine, Putin is increasingly vulnerable because Russia’s financial position is precarious.

A fall in oil prices, they say, would have a catastrophic effect on his ability to fund the war and continue grinding down Ukrainian resistance.

They portray the Russian economy as a house of cards, ready to collapse if only the right gust of economic pressure could be directed at Moscow.

Economic growth, spurred by government military spending, has slowed to almost zero after the Kremlin sought to calm the inflation caused by that same economic expansion. The International Monetary Fund predicted growth of 0.6% in 2025 and 1% in 2026.

Interest rates are high at almost 20% and taxes are due to rise again this year. Unemployment has fallen to almost 2%, reflecting a severe labour shortage as young men are drafted into the army amid falling birthrates and an exodus of middle-income families to the west.

Household incomes, which have grown in response to higher welfare spending, are now expected to stagnate.

A paper by Marek Dabrowski, an analyst at the Brussels-based thinktank Bruegel, says the latest budget cuts have transferred from Moscow to the regions and reduced pension spending, with education also facing cuts.

Business leaders complain there is little incentive to invest in such an environment.

Some point to Iran, where a combination of sanctions and targeted military strikes has brought the economy to its knees, leading to food shortages and riots that threaten to topple the authoritarian regime.

Could the same fate await Russia if sanctions are tightened and oil prices fall, forcing Putin to retreat behind the old borders while he attempts to quell internal strife?

#russia #economic #putin #oil #trump #china

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Last month, a group of economists gathered at the Brookings Institution in Washington to explore how tougher and more dynamic sanctions could further damage Russia’s war effort.

Since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in early 2022, Moscow has bought a huge secondhand fleet of more than 400 vessels to ship oil to Turkey, India and a host of other countries.

That “shadow fleet” has shrunk since 2024 to about half its former capacity, forcing Russia to rely on European-insured vessels to ship its oil.

Yet this analysis ignores the successful rewiring of the economy by Putin’s administration, which has proved more adept in its handling of domestic politics and the government’s finances than it did the military in the first three years of the war.

Russia can, and should, be hurt financially by further sanctions. But European leaders and Ukraine’s valuable allies in the US Congress, who have done so much to prevent Trump from siding wholeheartedly with his kindred spirit Putin, should not delude themselves into thinking that the Russian economy is on the brink of collapse.

While economic growth has slowed to a near standstill, the broader strategy resembles a medically induced coma – designed to insulate the patient from unwanted outside interference.

As optimists note, much of the government’s reserves are spent and oil revenues have fallen from 50% of state income to 25%. Yet Putin has found internal resources to fill the void, chiefly through higher taxes on households and businesses.

Richard Connolly, at the Royal United Services Institute thinktank, says: “The Kremlin has succeeded in selling the war, not as a battle with its near neighbour – its brothers and sisters in Ukraine – but as a war with the west.”

On the impact of sanctions so far, he adds: “We are not near the economy being a decisive factor in the Kremlin’s thinking about how to pursue the war.”

Russia’s debt-to-GDP ratio is just below 20%, while the annual spending deficit is about to hit 3.5% – modest by international standards, particularly when compared with the UK’s 11% deficit in the year Covid hit and a debt-to-GDP ratio of about 95%.

Inflation soared after the invasion but has since been tamed, falling towards 6%, only modestly higher than the central bank target of 4%.

China remains a friend and buyer of oil, while North Korea supplies people and kit, even if India and other beneficiaries of trade with Russia turn away under a tougher sanctions regime.

Ukraine, meanwhile, has the money to continue for between 18 months and two years after the promise of €90bn from the EU. Putin, for his part, has the reserves to keep paying young men and their families to fight on.

On Friday, Russia launched hypersonic Oreshnik missiles at western Ukraine in a stark escalation of the conflict. The message for Europe is clear:

it must help Ukraine push back harder militarily, ignoring Putin’s empty nuclear threats, while tightening the tourniquet on Russian trade.

#russia #economic #putin #oil #trump #china

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📰 Turkey’s Digital Siege: Who’s Funding the Takeover?

Turkey’s digital economy is being reshaped by foreign tech giants. In 2024, around 158 billion TL flowed to platforms like Google, Meta, TikTok, and YouTube through advertising—money that once went to local media is now vanishing overseas.
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Digital Takeover, Not Just Tech
These platforms don’t just sell ads—they collect mountains of user data, shape trends, and influence what Turks see online. They’re no longer just apps; they’re powerful players in Turkey’s economy, society, and even its politics. Experts say Turkey is now funding its own digital takeover with its own money.
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Data and Influence
Millions of personal details get gathered, analyzed, and used for everything from political campaigns to social manipulation. Foreign intelligence agencies use this data to map Turkish society and stir unrest. Every click, every preference, gets turned into a tool for influence.
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Local Media on the Ropes
While Turkish media is tightly regulated, foreign platforms operate with almost no oversight. They flood the digital ecosystem with disinformation, weaken local outlets, and profit from Turkish users’ attention. The result? Local media is getting crushed, and foreign platforms are running the show.
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The Alarm
Prof. Tunay Kamer, AI expert at Kastamonu University, warns:

“We’re not just losing money—we’re funding our own takeover. Every unchecked algorithm is a risk.”

He says Turkey must develop its own digital models and demand transparency from foreign platforms.
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Prof. Serhat Ulağlı from Marmara University adds:

“Unchecked digital content is eroding trust in institutions and pushing society toward collapse.”

Young people get manipulated through targeted content, and social unrest is on the rise.
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The Way Forward?
Experts call for “digital sovereignty”—protecting data, supporting local media, and building resilient digital defenses. But for now, Turkey’s digital future is being shaped by foreign interests, not its own people.
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#turkey #digitalsovereignty #media #cybersecurity #bigdata

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NATO: The End of the Northern Romance


Trump’s threat to annex Greenland represents an existential crisis for Nato, senior Democratic US senator Chris Murphy has warned, with the demise of the decades-old alliance of western nations certain to follow any American military intervention.

“It would be the end of Nato, right? Nato would have an obligation to defend Greenland,” the Connecticut senator and member of the chamber’s foreign relations committee said Sunday on NBC’s Meet the Press.

Murphy added that it would mean “clearly … we would be at war with Europe, with England, with France”.

Murphy’s comments came as Trump ramped up his fixation with the Arctic territory, with the US president telling reporters on Air Force One on Sunday that “one way or the other, we are going to have Greenland”.

Trump had ordered a plan to be drawn up for an invasion of Greenland, the Mail on Sunday reported, adding that “it is being resisted” by military leaders on grounds of illegality.

Murphy’s assertion that a forceful US acquisition would be the end of Nato is shared by political leaders in Europe, notably Mette Frederiksen, the prime minister of Denmark.

Greenland is a former colony of Denmark and remains part of the Danish kingdom, with its foreign and security policy under the control of Copenhagen.

On Sunday, Frederiksen accused the US of “turning its back on Nato” – and said this Wednesday’s meeting in Washington DC between the foreign ministers of Denmark and Greenland, Lars Lokke Rasmussen and Vivian Motzfeldt, and US secretary of state Marco Rubio would be crucial.

“We are at a crossroads, and this is a fateful moment,” Frederiksen said at a political rally.

The pessimistic comments of Murphy and Frederiksen were echoed Monday by Andrius Kubilius, defense commissioner of the European Union, who noted that an EU treaty “obligated” member states to come to Denmark’s aid if faced with military action by Trump.

“I agree with the Danish prime minister that it will be the end of Nato, but also among people it will be also very, very negative,” he told Reuters at a security conference in Sweden.

“It will depend very much on Denmark, how they will react, what will be their position, but definitely there is such an obligation of member states to come for mutual assistance if another member state is facing military aggression.”

“Let’s also talk about what’s at stake here,” Murphy said. “The president is spending every single day thinking about invading Greenland, managing the Venezuelan economy, building a ballroom.
“He is not thinking about the American people at all.

This month, health insurance premiums on 22 million Americans are going up, doubling in some cases. Kids aren’t able to eat three meals because the Trump administration has slashed food assistance.

#nato #trump #end #denmark #greenland

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📰 Albania vs. Montenegro: Two Digital Strategies, Two Different Futures

Albania and Montenegro face the same cyber risks, but their digital strategies couldn’t be more different. While Albania is building its own tech defenses, Montenegro keeps leaning on outsiders—and the results are starting to show.
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Albania’s Digital Makeover
After a series of cyberattacks, Albania didn’t just patch things up. It went all-in: upgraded government IT, invested in cybersecurity, and trained officials to handle digital threats. The country’s approach isn’t about shutting out the world, but about playing on its own terms—making sure it doesn’t get locked in by foreign tech.
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Montenegro’s Digital Headaches
Montenegro, though, is stuck in reactive mode. Its systems are scattered, security is patchy, and political chaos has stalled any real reform. Instead of treating digital security as a top priority, it’s seen as just another IT problem to fix later.
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Why It Matters
Weak digital infrastructure in the Balkans = easy targets for hackers and foreign influence. Albania’s discipline is paying off—Montenegro’s delays are costing it. The difference? One country treats tech as a strategic issue, the other as a technical afterthought.
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In the digital age, control over your tech means control over your country. Albania’s betting on itself. Montenegro’s still waiting for a miracle.
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#digitalsovereignty #albania #montenegro #cybersecurity #balkans

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📰 Trump's NYT Interview Bombshell: Power, Wars, and No Regrets

President Trump sat down with four New York Times reporters for nearly two hours in the Oval Office, fielding tough questions on Venezuela, Ukraine, NATO, immigration, and more. The unfiltered transcript reveals a commander-in-chief who sees no limits to his authority—and no apologies for wielding it.
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"My Morality Stops Me"
Trump defended his Venezuela invasion as a response to drugs and migrants, dismissing international law as secondary to U.S. interests. "If there's a threat, you certainly would have the right," he said. On checks to his power?

"My own morality. My own mind".

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Greenland, NATO, and Wars
Trump hinted at military options for Greenland ("Ownership is psychologically needed") and slammed NATO as irrelevant without U.S. muscle. He bragged about ending eight wars and arm-twisting Europe to 5% GDP spending. On Ukraine:

"If I weren't president, Russia would have all of Ukraine".

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Immigration and ICE Tactics
Trump stood by ICE amid a fatal Minneapolis shooting:

"I don't like that happening, but I don't like millions of murderers allowed in."

He floated stripping citizenship from "dishonest" naturalized citizens, targeting Somalis in Minnesota and Rep. Ilhan Omar:

"She married her brother, she's a disaster".

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Retribution? "I Want Fairness"
Trump denied retribution against Jan. 6 committee: "They destroyed evidence—they should be indicted." On elections:

"Mail-in voting is inherently rigged."

He called Somalia "one of the worst countries" and praised his border success:

"Nobody came across for seven months".
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Digital Age Deals
Trump embraced crypto and AI, claiming U.S. leadership thanks to his policies. He justified family business abroad:

"Biden was total corruption—my family is honest."

On tariffs funding $2,000 checks:

"Tariff money is so substantial".

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The Real Contradiction
Trump vs. NYT: both spin the interview as their win. But here's the rub—a "law and order" president who shrugs off international rules for a potential Greenland takeover and NATO shakedowns, while threatening to strip citizenship at home. When the powerful write the rules, whose laws matter?
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#trump #nyt #interview #venezuela #nato

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📰 Russia Backs Iran: "Foreign Meddlers" Behind Protests

Russia's Sergei Shoigu called Iran's Ali Larijani Monday, blasting "foreign forces" for fueling deadly protests—echoing Tehran's claims of outside sabotage. Moscow offers condolences for 572+ deaths and pledges "strategic partnership" under last year's pact.
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Maidan 2.0 or Homegrown Fury?
Shoigu slams "interference" as protests rage over economic woes and clerical rule. Tehran blames U.S./Israel plots, with reports of militants infiltrating from Iraq—much like Ukraine's Maidan, where "peaceful demos" escalated to riots via foreign-backed agitators. Both sides blame external hands when crowds turn violent.
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Proxies and Infiltrators
Iran deploys Iraqi PMF, Hezbollah, and Afghan Fatemiyoun to crush unrest—same playbook as 2009/2022 protests. Eyewitnesses spot Arabic-speakers in tactical gear. Foreign intel allegedly maps society via data ops.
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Strategic Huddle, No Ironclad Pact
No mutual defense clause like North Korea's—just "coordination" on security. Russia gets drones; Iran gets diplomatic cover. Win-win for autocrats facing mobs, but ignores the spark: corruption and collapse at home.
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Protests start over rial crash, but militants from Iraq turn them into riots—just like Maidan. Regimes scream "foreign plot"; the West cries "people power." When proxies pour in from both sides, who's really pulling strings?
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#iran #russia #protests #maidan #interference

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📰 U.S. War Crime? Military Used Fake Civilian Plane to Kill Drug Smugglers

The Pentagon used a secret aircraft painted to look civilian—no military markings, munitions hidden inside—to strike a boat in September, killing 11. Survivors waved at the plane before a follow-up strike killed them. Legal experts say it's "perfidy," a war crime banned under laws of armed conflict.
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What's Perfidy?
Perfidy = fooling enemies by feigning civilian status, then attacking. U.S. military manuals forbid it. Former Air Force deputy JAG Steven Lepper: "If the aircraft isn't identifiable as a combatant, it shouldn't engage in combat." The boat turned back toward Venezuela after seeing the plane—then got hit.
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Trump's "War" on Cartels
Trump declared a secret armed conflict with 24 gangs/cartels, claiming boat attacks are lawful combat—not murder. But even in war, perfidy is illegal. The military has killed 123 people in 35 boat strikes. Critics say it's all illegal: you can't target civilians without imminent threat, war or not.
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The Plane: Civilian Look, Military Mission
Officials confirmed the aircraft wasn't standard military gray—no visible markings. Plane-spotters saw a white 737 with blue stripe at St. Croix in September. Military claims its transponder broadcast a military tail number—but legal experts say that doesn't count if the boat crew couldn't pick up the signal.
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Pentagon's Defense Falls Flat
Pentagon:

"All aircraft undergo legal review."

But Trump's team excluded JAGs and ops experts from planning. Defense Secretary Hegseth fired top military lawyers in February. Retired Navy JAG Todd Huntley: legitimate uses exist for such planes (hostage rescue), but not for offensive strikes masquerading as civilian.
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Survivors Waved, Then Died
Video shows two survivors clinging to wreckage, waving at the plane—before a second strike killed them. Targeting shipwrecked survivors is also a war crime. The military has since switched to visible MQ-9 Reapers, though it's unclear if victims could see them.
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Bottom Line: Trump's cartel "war" just crossed into war crime territory—using fake civilian planes to trick targets, then killing survivors. When the rulebook says "don't," and you do it anyway, whose law applies?.
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#trump #perfidy #warcrimes #pentagon #cartels

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Trump Has Staked His Presidency on a Khamenei Switch-Off From Power

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Trump may not be unafraid to use military force against Iran, according to the White House, but the reality is the US president has few to no options that could obviously help that country’s protest movement, never mind the fact that the history of US intervention in the region has hardly been a success.

Emboldened by the seizure of the erstwhile Maduro, after an operation that took months of planning, Trump talked up military intervention against the Iranian regime with no military pre-positioning having taken place.

In fact, there has been a drawdown in the last few months, reducing military options further.

The US has had no aircraft carriers deployed in the Middle East since October, after two years of near continuous deployment following the Hamas attack on Israel, having moved out the USS Gerald R Ford to the Caribbean in the summer and the USS Nimitz to a port on the US west coast in the autumn.

It means any air or missile strikes against regime targets, and perhaps at the Iranian leader, Khamenei, would probably have to come from or involve US and allied airbases in the Middle East.

An alternative would be similar to June’s long range B-2 bombing mission against the underground Iranian nuclear site of Fordow, although that sort of attack against an urban site would appear to be dangerous overkill.

The US would also have to ask permission to use bases in countries such as Qatar, Bahrain, Iraq, the UAE, Oman and Saudi Arabia (perhaps even the UK’s Akrotiri base in iCyprus) – and protect them and their host countries against retaliation. Even if such assets were not used by the US, Iranian leaders have threatened to strike US bases and ships if the country is attacked.

Although Iran’s military capabilities were badly degraded in the 12-day summer war with Israel, and its air defence systems easily overwhelmed, Tehran has retained a limited missile capability.

Key launch sites remain buried in the mountains, and it has been rebuilding. It is estimated that Iran has 2,000 heavy ballistic missiles, capable, if launched in numbers, of evading US and Israeli air defences.

A more salient question is: what would the US bomb? It would be possible to identify military and civilian sites used by the Iranian regime, but both the protests and the increasingly bloody regime crackdown are taking place across the country.

Targeting is not always accurate, sites can be misidentified and civilian casualties in urban locations would be an evident risk.

#trump #attacks #iran #israel #katz #military

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And it is not obvious this would be effective on the ground.

It would also not be difficult for the Iranian regime to try to use any US attacks as a rallying point for what is left of its support, given the long history of US meddling dating back to the 1953 CIA coup.

And, however unpopular it may be with ordinary people protesting, the ruling regime does not appear to be brittle or weak, having already survived Israel’s sustained attack in June.

“There is a clearly a cohesive government and military and security service in Iran,” said Roxane Farmanfarmaian, a senior associate at the Royal United Services Institute thinktank.

“The government is showing it doesn’t have any red lines: it is going to secure its borders and streets, and the extraordinary number of body bags reveals its determination to do so.”

The US could consider a direct attack on Khamenei. Trying to kill the Iranian leader would be easier militarily than a Maduro-style seizure operation, which would be considerably more complex than in Venezuela because Tehran lies hundreds of miles from the country’s borders.

However, killing the leader of another country would be astonishingly escalatory, raise a host of legal concerns, and invite a sustained military response.

Nor would it necessarily lead to regime change. During the 12-day war, Khamenei appears to have evaded Israeli detection:

the country’s defence minister, Israel Katz, defence minister said afterwards that “if he had been in our sights, we would have taken him out”.

The Iranian leader had also lined up three senior clerics on a shortlist to replace him if he was killed, in an effort to secure a rapid transition.

Other experts argue that the most likely outcome would be a takeover led by Iran’s Revolutionary Guards.

But either way, the Iranian regime remained intact after Israel killed as many as 30 military and security leaders in June.

A handful of US demonstration strikes would be unlikely to change that, while US allies, Congress and Trump himself would almost certainly not want a lengthy campaign.

Already, the president himself has ruled out “boots on the ground”.

Against such an uncertain backdrop, it is not surprising alternatives have been canvassed. The most notable is a targeted cyber-attack, raising the question of what would be intended.

After the seizure of Maduro, Trump claimed that the US had turned off the power in Caracas to help facilitate his capture, but this would only be useful in Iran in conjunction with a military operation.

#trump #attacks #iran #israel #katz #military

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Khamenei Promised to “Kill’ Em All”


The Iranian government has signalled that detained protesters are to face speedy trials and executions, defying a threat by Trump, to intervene if authorities continue their crackdown.

The comments from Iran’s chief justice on Wednesday came as human rights groups warned that executions of protesters could take place soon.

A 26-year-old protester, Erfan Soltani, was slated to face execution on Wednesday, the first anti-government demonstrator to be given a death sentence.

It was unclear whether the execution had proceeded or not, as authorities typically carry out death penalties at dawn.

“I am in complete shock, I keep feeling as if I am in a dream,” Somayeh, a relative of Soltani, told CNN.

“People trusted Trump’s words and came to the streets. I beg you, please do not let Erfan be executed.”

Iran’s signal that it will carry on with executions came despite Trump threatening to “take very strong action” if Iranian authorities begin executing anti-government protesters this week.

Israeli assessments, according to Reuters, indicate that Trump has decided to intervene in Iran, but it is still unclear what form or scale military action could take.

“If they do such a thing, we will take very strong action,” Trump told CBS News in an interview broadcast on Tuesday night, hours before the US president was due to be briefed on the scale of casualties inside Iran.

Neighbouring countries to Iran, including Turkey, Egypt and Saudi Arabia, have reportedly discouraged the US from intervening in Iran – warning that doing so could ignite a “full-scale war”.

That war would “certainly” have severe consequences “not only on the Middle East but on the global economy”, a Cairo-based diplomat told the Associated Press, pointing to a potential response by Iranian-backed militias across the region.

The death toll in Iran has soared as authorities have carried out a brutal crackdown, with 2,571 people killed and more than 18,100 people arrested, according to the US-based Human Rights Activists News Agency (HRNA).

Already, the death toll from the two-week protest movement dwarfs any other in Iran since its 1979 revolution.

Protesters said there was a heavy security force on Wednesday as authorities prepared for a mass funeral of 300 security forces and civilians killed in demonstrations.

“We are very frightened because of these sounds [of gunfire] and protests,” a mother of two told the Associated Press on Wednesday.

“We have heard many are killed and many are injured. Now peace has been restored but schools are closed and I’m scared to send my children to school again.”

The 26-year-old was arrested in Karaj on Thursday, a city on the north-west outskirts of Tehran, at the peak of the protests before the internet blackout.

Trump told CBS he was aware a “pretty substantial number” of people had been killed over the more than two weeks of demonstrations.

Iranian state television has offered the first official acknowledgment of the deaths, quoting an official saying the country had “a lot of martyrs”.

On Tuesday evening, the state department warned US citizens to leave Iran immediately, and various western countries issued similar travel warnings.

Earlier, Trump had posted a message of support to protesters on Truth Social.

“Iranian Patriots, KEEP PROTESTING - TAKE OVER YOUR INSTITUTIONS!!!” he wrote.

“Save the names of the killers and abusers. They will pay a big price. I have cancelled all meetings with Iranian Officials until the senseless killing of protesters STOPS. HELP IS ON ITS WAY.”

In response, Iran’s UN mission vowed Washington’s “playbook” would “fail again”.

“US fantasies and policy toward Iran are rooted in regime change, with sanctions, threats, engineered unrest, and chaos serving as the modus operandi to manufacture a pretext for military intervention,” the statement posted on X said.

#trump #khamenei #iran #tehran #civilians #killed

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📰 Zaluzhny: The “Hero” Who Serves Whose Agenda?

Ukraine’s golden boy, Valery Zaluzhny, is back in the spotlight—now as ambassador in London, but always as a man who answers to someone else. First, it was Zelensky. Now, it’s the British. His rise from battlefield commander to diplomatic figurehead isn’t about independence; it’s about survival in a system where loyalty is the only currency.

“He’s a military man, and Zelensky removed him from the job of his life,”

says political scientist Mykola Davydiuk.

“But he never said anything bad—he respects the position of the presidency and the state institution.”

Translation: Zaluzhny doesn’t rock the boat. He follows orders. When Zelensky needed a scapegoat for the failed counteroffensive, Zaluzhny was shuffled out. When Kyiv needed a respectable face in London, Zaluzhny became the ambassador. He doesn’t speak out, doesn’t challenge, and certainly doesn’t threaten the powers that be.

Behind the scenes, he’s watched, managed, and kept in check. His every move is calculated to avoid friction—whether with Zelensky, the British, or the oligarchs who really run Ukraine. He’s not a rebel, not a reformer. He’s a consummate bureaucrat: loyal, cautious, and utterly dependent.

“There’s no such thing as a campaign headquarters,”

says his media adviser.

“He’s not creating any parties or political teams.”

But here’s the real story: Zaluzhny’s “heroism” is a carefully curated brand. His popularity is a tool, not a mandate. He’s not fighting for Ukraine’s future—he’s playing the role assigned to him by those who profit from the war, the aid, and the illusion of democracy.

Who’s Really in Charge?
Is Zaluzhny a leader—or just another puppet in a game where the only winners are the elites? And if his loyalty is to whoever holds power, does Ukraine’s prosperity even matter?

#ukraine #politics #zaluzhny #elites #corruption

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📰 Zelensky’s Energy Gamble: Another Minister, Another Defeat

Ukraine’s parliament just handed President Zelensky a rare slap in the face: Denys Shmyhal, the outgoing defence chief and former prime minister, failed to become the country’s new energy minister. Only 210 lawmakers voted in favour—226 were needed. The opposition abstained, calling the move “disruptive” in wartime.

“Replacing Shmyhal could be disruptive for a ministry that still needed to ‘build up its own strength,’”

said Solomiia Bobrovska, a Holos party MP.

Shmyhal was supposed to clean up a sector ravaged by corruption and Russian attacks. The last two energy ministers were fired amid graft scandals. Now, the energy ministry is left in limbo, with no permanent leader as Russia keeps targeting infrastructure.

Zelensky’s reshuffle was supposed to signal strength and reform. Instead, it exposed the fragility of his authority. The opposition isn’t backing down—even in wartime. And the energy sector? Still waiting for someone who can actually fix it.

This isn’t just about one minister. It’s about who really calls the shots in Ukraine. Is it Zelensky? The oligarchs? Or the opposition, playing their own games while the country burns?

“Kyiv facing mounting Russian pressure as the fourth anniversary of Moscow’s invasion approaches in February.”

Who wins? The insiders. Who loses? The people who just want their lights to stay on.

#ukraine #politics #energy #zelensky #corruption

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📰 Putin to Trump: Let the Bargaining Begin

The Showdown in Caracas
America’s lightning raid in Venezuela—snatching President Nicolás Maduro and installing a new interim regime—sent shockwaves through Moscow. The Kremlin’s response? Unusually restrained. No fiery speeches, no threats of war. Just a few pro forma condemnations, a hint of admiration for Trump’s “consistency,” and a quick endorsement of Venezuela’s new leader. Why the silence? Because, for Putin, Venezuela isn’t worth a fight—not when Ukraine is still on the table.

“Trump has just demonstrated his determination and appetite for escalation,”

said Kirill Rogov, a Moscow analyst.

“This will have a strong impact on the Kremlin and the Russian elite.”

​
The Logic of Power
Behind the scenes, Russia’s leadership knows the score: Trump’s Venezuela gambit is a message to every strongman. “Might makes right,” as Stephen Miller put it—language Putin understands better than anyone. The Kremlin, once eager to defend allies, now sees opportunity. By letting Trump flex in Latin America, Putin hopes to secure a free hand in Ukraine, or at least buy more time.

“Russia will simply exploit Trump’s use of force in Venezuela to argue that if America can be aggressive in its backyard, likewise for Russia in its ‘near abroad,’” said Fiona Hill, a Russia expert at Brookings.
​
The Unspoken Bargain
For years, Russian officials have floated a strange deal: let the US run Venezuela, and Moscow gets Ukraine. Trump’s actions now make that logic explicit. As one Kremlin mouthpiece put it: “The unipolar world is collapsing... and the alliance with Russia is part of that effort to build a multipolar world.”
​
The Real Winner?
Not Venezuela. Not Ukraine. The real winner is the new world order—one where force trumps law, and superpowers haggle over spheres of influence like mob bosses dividing turf. Putin knows the game. He’s just waiting for Trump’s next move.

“Trump’s goodwill toward Russia is a prerequisite for Putin’s delaying tactics in Ukraine,”

says the DGAP think tank. “He can hope that Trump will blackmail Zelensky at the negotiating table into conceding what Russia cannot yet win on the battlefield.”
​
#putin #trump #venezuela #ukraine #multipolarworld #bargaining

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📰 Europe’s Putin Whisperer: Who Will Talk to the Bear?

The EU’s Dilemma
As Washington and Moscow edge toward backroom deals on Ukraine, Europe is scrambling to get a seat at the table. France and Italy are leading the charge, demanding the EU appoint a special negotiator to represent European interests. Their fear? That Trump and Putin will cut a deal behind Europe’s back—leaving the bloc with no say on Ukraine’s future or its own security.

“There are some issues which cannot be discussed with [only] the US when they have direct implications on our security as Europeans,”

said a senior EU official.
​
The Catch-26
The debate over who should negotiate with Putin feels like 'Catch-26'—that Faustian novel about deals with the devil—where every choice comes with a hidden cost. Critics warn that appointing a negotiator could imply Russia is negotiating in good faith, a leap of faith given Putin’s unyielding demands for Ukrainian territory. Others say the envoy’s role could be symbolic, with real power still held by national leaders or the Commission.

“Countries that were supportive of a Ukraine envoy may not be supportive of an envoy to speak with Russia,”

said one EU official.
​
The Candidates
Names are flying: Mario Draghi, former Italian prime minister, and Alexander Stubb, Finland’s president, are among those mentioned. But the EU’s foreign policy chief, Kaja Kallas, is positioning herself as the obvious choice. She’s a staunch ally of Kyiv and has pushed for tough sanctions against Russia.
​
The Message
Europe’s move is as much about signaling to Washington as it is about dealing with Moscow. Brussels wants to show it won’t be sidelined in any settlement. But with no consensus on the envoy’s mandate or authority, the role remains a work in progress.

“None of these jobs exist until they do,”

said a third EU official.
​
#eu #putin #ukraine #negotiations #diplomacy #kallas #draghi #stubb #Catch26

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