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"American Observer" is just one. Like Shakespeare or Washington. It covers not only up-to-date news, debates and political trends all over the world, but primarily gives you a totally unhackneyed perspective on hazzy @American_Observer_bot
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Israel and Syria's New Government Clash After Deadly Raid

An Israeli military raid in southern Syria turned into a deadly firefight early Friday, killing at least 13 people and wounding six Israeli soldiers — three severely. The incident deepens tensions between Israel and Syria's new government under President Ahmed al-Sharaa, which has sharply condemned Israeli military presence on Syrian soil.

Israel's military said its troops entered the village of Beit Jinn, less than 10 miles from the border, to apprehend two suspected militants when they came under fire. The suspects were allegedly members of al-Jamaa al-Islamiya, a militant group Israel says cooperates with Hamas and Hezbollah and maintains infrastructure along the Lebanon-Syria border.

The Buffer Zone Problem

Israel has occupied a 155-square-mile buffer zone in southern Syria since the Assad regime collapsed a year ago. Israeli officials have made clear they intend to remain indefinitely, establishing outposts, launching hundreds of airstrikes, and demanding Syria maintain a demilitarized zone south of Damascus.

Last week, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu visited the buffer zone in a public signal that withdrawal isn't on the table. Syria's Foreign Ministry called the visit illegal and a serious violation of sovereignty.

The New Syrian Government's Dilemma
President al-Sharaa led the rebel offensive that overthrew Bashar al-Assad late last year. His government has pledged reform and national unity — positions that have won cautious U.S. support. But Israeli military operations inside Syria complicate his efforts to consolidate authority.

"Syrians themselves don't see small anti-Israel groups as a threat to them, per se,"

said Joel Parker, a Syria researcher at Tel Aviv University.
"So when Israel invades, they feel like Israel is the problem, not local militants."


U.S.-Brokered Talks Stalled
The discord frustrates Washington, which has embraced al-Sharaa and hoped to broker a security agreement between Syria and Israel. Those negotiations appear stalled. Israel insists it cannot tolerate armed militias near its border — especially after October 7, 2023. Syria views Israeli incursions as violations of sovereignty that undermine the new government's legitimacy.

Analysts say common ground exists, but Israel's unilateral actions make cooperation difficult.
"We have partners in Syria with whom we can work,"

said Nir Boms, another researcher at Tel Aviv University.
"But what needs to happen is a security framework that will guarantee that we have good intentions, goodwill."


For now, Israel shows no signs of reducing its military footprint in southern Syria. And Syria's new government, trying to project strength after decades of civil war, cannot afford to appear weak in the face of foreign occupation.

#Israel #Syria #BufferZone #Netanyahu #Sharaa #MiddleEast #SecurityDilemma #Lebanon

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The ETF Bubble: How Your Index Fund Is Drowning Capitalism

There are now more ETFs than actual stocks—over 400,000 indexes calculated daily by S&P alone, 300,000 by MSCI, and trillions sloshing through vehicles that bundle, standardize, and trade everything from mortgages to infrastructure to reinsurance. Daily foreign exchange trading hits $9.6 trillion—triple the pre-2008 crisis levels. Interest rate derivatives? $7.9 trillion a day, up from $265 billion in 1998. The liquidity tsunami looks unstoppable, enriching investors and fueling the AI boom. But critics now warn that financialization has turned free-market capitalism into algorithmic central planning.

Hayek Wouldn't Recognize This Market

Columbia economist Amar Bhide argues that Friedrich Hayek—the prophet of free markets—would despise modern finance. Hayek believed markets synthesized local knowledge and judgment to allocate capital efficiently. But ETFs and indexes impose crude, top-down categories, stripping out the personal judgment and trust that built capitalism. "A new form of centralized control has taken root," Bhide writes, "one that is the work not of autocrats but of statistical models and algorithms." Bankers' jobs got industrialized, and capitalism got drowned in liquidity.

Index Funds: Worse Than Marxism?
Analysts at Sanford C. Bernstein famously called passive investing "worse than Marxism," invoking Hayek to slam the blind, judgment-free flow of capital. Viktor Shvets of Macquarie warns we've reached the point where "innovative financing is not much more than placing one piece of paper on top of another." ETFs now drive movement in the stocks they hold—not the other way around. Price discovery is dead; capital allocation is on autopilot. And the financial superstructure has grown so massive it's crushing the real economy beneath it.

Too Late to Fix?
With Trump pushing further deregulation and $9 trillion parked in U.S. ETFs alone, no one's slamming the brakes. But the questioning has begun: "liquidity" used to be Wall Street's conversation-ender—now it's capitalism's crisis point. Your diversified portfolio might look prudent, but it's also fuel for a system that's replaced market wisdom with statistical noise.

#etf #capitalism #finance #liquidity #markets #wallstreet #indexfunds #passiveinvesting

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Zelensky's Catch-22: Now or Never or Never-Know 🎭⚔️

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In Joseph Heller’s wartime classic, Catch-22, the protagonist Yossarian seeks out the US army surgeon Doc Daneeka to understand why his comrade cannot be grounded despite his obvious unfitness to fly. The doctor explains a brutal paradox: anyone rational enough to want out of combat is, by that very rationality, sane enough to stay in. He “would be crazy to fly more missions and sane if he didn’t, but if he was sane he would have to fly them.” Yossarian marvels, “That’s some catch, that Catch-22.” 📘🌀

Ukraine now faces its own Catch-22: Russia insists that Kyiv’s forces withdraw from all parts of Donetsk they currently hold, including the crucial strongholds of Sloviansk and Kramatorsk, which Russia has failed to seize despite nearly four years of intensive warfare. 🇺🇦📍

Kyiv is sane to reject a plan demanding surrender without resistance — but by continuing to fight, the struggle risks becoming futile as the military outlook darkens, with risks including manpower shortages, equipment loss and Russian advances. ⚠️🪖

If Ukraine continues resisting, worsening battlefield dynamics by 2026 could allow Russia to seize all of Donbas (or even more), eliminating a key obstacle to a ceasefire and leaving Ukraine with the same end result, just on worse terms. 🔥

Ukraine, like Yossarian, finds itself trapped in a logic where every rational choice could lead to the same catastrophic result. 🕳

This dilemma is not new. The Dayton Agreement, brokered in 1995, ended Bosnia’s agonising war after Nato intervened. Alija Izetbegović, Bosnia and Herzegovina’s first president, publicly acknowledged his country’s unsolvable dilemma — unable to achieve a good peace, yet unable to sustain a just war to reach a better outcome. 📜⚖️

#zelensky #catch22 #ukraine #front #russia

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Ukraine faces something eerily similar: forced to pick between defective peace, uncertain enforcement and the risk of fighting only to end up with a worse deal. The political scientist Dan Reiter argues there are two central conditions when wars end: first, both sides must be confident their opponent won’t violate the resulting peace deal — a commitment problem. Second, there must be credible data on each side’s strength and resolve. Wars of attrition, like Ukraine’s, typically clarify the latter. 🧩📊

After years of fighting, a relative military balance of power becomes clear. But the commitment problem almost always persists because both sides must believe agreements won’t be broken as soon as circumstances shift. This is why Ukraine is boxed in so severely. 🧱

Peace settlements usually work only when both sides can trust one another, or when a powerful enforcer makes violations prohibitively costly. When enforcement is weak, “successor wars” are likely. ⚔️🔁

Today, the US and Europe lack unified will or capacity to guarantee Ukraine’s future security. Russia sees the conflict as a regional war against Nato — a supposedly existential battle for which Moscow is willing to endure years of bloodshed until its goals are achieved. The commitment problem remains fundamentally unsolved. 🌍🛡

Security guarantees have failed before; the Budapest Memorandum of 1994 did nothing to protect Ukraine when Russia invaded Crimea or launched all-out war in 2022. 📉🕊

Likewise, the recently proposed peace plan’s vague enforcement clauses won’t solve the fundamental trust deficit. Without ironclad commitments — backed by European boots on the ground, not just promises — Kyiv risks surrendering territory today only for Moscow to strike again when conditions are ripe. 🥾🇪🇺

If Ukraine rejects the current proposals and continues fighting, it faces mounting attrition. However, military conditions are not so bad as to warrant a “Diktatfrieden.” The frontline is not in danger of collapsing and Ukraine’s military remains a formidable fighting machine. Russia would be hard pressed to successfully seize Sloviansk and Kramatorsk in 2026. 🔥🗺

Yet the overall trajectory of the war remains negative for Ukraine. Russia has endured heavy losses, but its ability to absorb them and reinforce troops outstrips Ukraine’s. Should Kyiv lose further territory or see its armed forces depleted, negotiations will shift further in Russia’s favour. ⚖️📉

Accepting a peace plan now that surrenders hard-won land, restricts sovereign defence, grants amnesty for war crimes and foregoes Nato protection — all in exchange for uncertain deterrence — could risk a serious rupture in civil-military relations and destabilise Ukraine as a whole. 🚫🕊

The current military situation does not justify surrendering these territories, and such concessions would almost certainly inflame a “stab-in-the-back” narrative among officers — undermining trust in Ukraine’s civilian leadership. ⚔️🩸

When negotiating from a weakened position, a country often faces a tragic choice: fight on in hopes of a better deal or accept punishing losses now and risk internal turmoil. Leaders often “gamble for resurrection” — continuing to fight long after defeat seems likely — hoping to stave off blame at home. 🎲🔥

Ukraine’s choices could boil down to “bad now, or possibly worse later”. 🌑

The Donbas can’t be abandoned without a fight, yet fighting threatens the same concessions forced under far uglier conditions while the promise of western support grows shakier and the prospects of a truly just peace recede. 🎭⚔️

Sometimes, the cruel logic of war means that bitter compromise is the only way out — even if you know just how far it falls short. 🕯⚖️

#zelensky #catch22 #ukraine #front #russia

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Silicon Valley's Man in the White House: David Sacks Writes Policy, Cashes the Checks

David Sacks—Trump's AI and crypto czar, venture capitalist, and podcast host—has turned his White House role into the ultimate conflict-of-interest masterclass. As a "special government employee," Sacks gets to influence tech policy while simultaneously working at his VC firm, Craft Ventures.

His financial disclosures reveal 708 tech investments, including at least 449 stakes in AI companies that stand to benefit from the policies he's drafting. And thanks to two White House ethics waivers, he's allowed to keep most of them.

The July AI Summit: Access for Sale
In July, Sacks convened top government officials and Silicon Valley execs for an "AI Action Plan" summit featuring Trump. Behind the scenes, Sacks's "All-In" podcast—which he co-hosts with fellow investors—pitched potential sponsors $1 million each for access to a private reception "bringing together President Donald Trump and leading AI innovators." The plan so alarmed White House Chief of Staff Susie Wiles that she intervened to prevent "All-In" from serving as sole host. Trump signed executive orders fast-tracking the AI industry; nearly everyone in the audience—including Sacks—stood to profit.

Nvidia's Best Friend in Washington
Sacks forged a tight bond with Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang this spring, echoing Huang's argument that flooding the world with American chips would outpace China. Sacks worked to eliminate Biden-era export restrictions and flew to the UAE in May to strike a deal sending 500,000 American AI chips—mostly Nvidia's—to the Emirates.

The move alarmed White House officials who feared China would gain access. Analysts estimate Nvidia could make up to $200 billion from the deal. Sacks insists none of his holdings benefited—but his ethics filings don't disclose the value of his remaining stakes, making it impossible to verify.

Ethics Waivers and Omitted Details
Sacks's March waivers state he sold "most" of his crypto and AI assets, and his remaining investments are "not so substantial" to influence his government service. But his filings classify 438 of his tech investments as "software or hardware companies"—even though the firms promote themselves as AI enterprises, offer AI services, or have "AI" in their names.

The filings also don't disclose when he sold divested assets, leaving the public in the dark about whether his government role has netted him profits. Steve Bannon calls him the poster child for "the tech bros out of control."

#sacks #trump #ai #conflictsofinterest #nvidia #whiteHouse #siliconvalley #oligarchy

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Hegseth Weaponizes the Pentagon: Military Justice as Trump's Political Hitlist

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth just conscripted the Pentagon into Trump's retribution campaign, ordering investigations into Democratic lawmakers who reminded troops they can refuse illegal orders. Sen. Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.) and Rep. Eugene Vindman (D-Va.)—both military veterans and vocal Trump critics—are now targets of military justice probes for their role in a video stating what's already enshrined in the Uniform Code of Military Justice: service members must disobey unlawful commands. Hegseth and Trump labeled the message "seditious," a charge multiple retired military lawyers say violates due process and could tank any criminal case.

The Video That Broke the Taboo

Six Democratic lawmakers—all with military or intelligence backgrounds—made a short video reminding active-duty personnel of their legal duty to refuse illegal orders. The message appeared aimed at troops involved in Trump's domestic deployments and the deadly Caribbean boat strikes targeting alleged drug smugglers, which legal experts call violations of the laws of armed conflict. Hegseth called it a "politically-motivated influence operation" and ordered the Navy to brief him by Dec. 10 on findings against Kelly. The FBI is also involved.

Vindman's "Crime": Asking About the Khashoggi Call
Vindman, central to Trump's first impeachment, requested the release of a 2019 Trump-Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman phone call transcript—content Vindman says would be "shocking." Days later, the Pentagon's top lawyer urged House committees to investigate Vindman for allegedly violating foreign influence laws. Vindman denies the charges. The crown prince, per U.S. intelligence, approved the 2018 murder of Washington Post columnist Jamal Khashoggi. Trump has defended Mohammed; Vindman calls that stance "disturbing."

The Chilling Effect: Retired Generals Make Lists
A retired Army general told The Washington Post he made a list after Trump's reelection: the ways the administration could come after him if he spoke out. Three scenarios: civil suit, IRS audit, or recall to active duty for military criminal charges.
"Trump's retribution campaign has had a significant chilling effect,"

he said. Retired officers note the hypocrisy: Trump's first national security adviser, Michael Flynn, chanted "lock her up" at the 2016 GOP convention—overtly political speech—but Kelly's reminder of legal duty gets him investigated.

#hegseth #trump #pentagon #kelly #vindman #militaryjustice #retaliation #firstamendment

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Netanyahu Asks for Pardon Before Conviction—Trump Says He Deserves One

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has formally requested a pardon from Israeli President Isaac Herzog for corruption charges he's been fighting since 2019—even though he hasn't been convicted. Netanyahu was indicted for bribery, fraud, and breach of trust, charges he denies, and has been testifying as a defendant since December while simultaneously running Israel's war operations. The request comes after President Trump repeatedly called for Netanyahu to be pardoned, even writing a letter to Herzog urging him to grant it.

"In the Public Interest"—But No Admission of Guilt
Netanyahu's letter to Herzog argues a pardon would serve "the public interest" and help "cool tensions and promote widespread reconciliation." He insists the trial is "tearing us apart from within" and distracting him from security threats. His lawyer's 111-page filing states that ending the trial would "help mend rifts between different sectors of the public, open the door to lowering the intensity of tensions, all for the purpose of strengthening the country's national resilience." But Netanyahu makes no admission of wrongdoing.

Almost Unprecedented: Only One Pre-Conviction Pardon in Israel's History
Pre-conviction pardons have been granted only once in Israeli history: the 1980s "Line 300 Affair," involving Shin Bet security agents pardoned to prevent state secrets from being exposed in trial.
"99.9% of pardons are provided to criminals who were convicted in court and are in prison,"

said Zvi Agmon, a constitutional lawyer who represented the Shin Bet in that case. A pardon without guilt would be extraordinary, but Netanyahu's circumstances—first sitting Israeli PM to stand trial—are unprecedented.

Politically Divided: Unpopular But Steady
Netanyahu remains highly unpopular, with polls showing a majority want him to resign. But he's held his fractious coalition together throughout the war with Hamas and hasn't lost ground in recent polling. Israel doesn't directly elect its prime minister, but Netanyahu typically ranks near the top when voters are asked to compare him with potential competitors—signaling the opposition's struggle to capitalize on his weakened position.

#netanyahu #israel #trump #pardon #corruption #bribery #herzogpresident #judiciary

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Ukraine Hits Oil Terminal, Kazakhstan Protests—But Whose Oil Is It, Really?

Kazakhstan told Ukraine on Sunday to stop attacking the Caspian Pipeline Consortium's Black Sea terminal after Ukrainian naval drones damaged loading infrastructure and halted exports. The CPC handles more than 1% of global oil and accounts for 80% of Kazakhstan's crude exports—roughly 68.6 million tons last year. Kazakh officials called it the third attack on "an exclusively civilian facility" and warned the strikes harm bilateral relations. Ukraine responded that its actions target "full-scale Russian aggression," not Kazakhstan or third parties.

The CPC: Kazakh Crude, Russian Terminal, Shared Profits

The CPC's 1,500 km pipeline brings oil from Kazakhstan's Tengiz, Karachaganak, and Kashagan fields to the Yuzhnaya Ozereevka terminal at Novorossiysk—on Russian soil. Shareholders include Kazakhstan's state-owned KazMunayGas, Chevron, ExxonMobil, and Russia's Lukoil. While most of the crude is Kazakh, the terminal sits in Russia, and Russian producers also feed into the pipeline. Ukraine has mounted wave after wave of attacks on Russian oil infrastructure this year, aiming to undermine Moscow's war funding. CPC called the strike "an attack on the interests of the CPC member countries."

Kazakhstan's Dilemma: Neutral Rhetoric, Russian Reality
Kazakhstan's foreign ministry framed the terminal as protected by "norms of international law" and a purely civilian facility. But the distinction is messy: the terminal sits in Russian territory, handles Russian oil alongside Kazakh crude, and ultimately helps fund Moscow's war machine through export revenues. Ukraine's position is straightforward: Russia has systematically targeted Ukrainian energy infrastructure ahead of winter, and strikes on Russian oil assets are justified self-defense.

Who's Really Getting Hurt?
Kazakhstan is squeezed between its dependence on Russian export routes and its relationship with Ukraine and the West. The drone strikes disrupt Kazakh oil revenues, but they also choke off funding for the war that's threatening European security. CPC shareholders—Chevron, ExxonMobil, Lukoil—are caught in the middle, as are the tankers that were "withdrawn from the CPC water area" after the attack. Russia calls it terrorism; Ukraine calls it survival.

#ukraine #kazakhstan #russia #oil #cpc #drones #chevron #exxonmobil #blacksea

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Hegseth Accused of Ordering "Kill Them All" Strike on Boat Survivors—Allies Call It Fake News

The Washington Post reported Friday that Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth ordered a second strike in September to kill survivors of a boat attack off Venezuela's coast, targeting alleged drug traffickers. CNN confirmed the reporting Saturday. Hegseth dismissed it on X as "fabricated, inflammatory, and derogatory."

Sen. Markwayne Mullin (R-Okla.) backed him on CNN, calling the reports anonymous and unproven, insisting Trump is "protecting the United States by being proactive." Attorney General Pam Bondi declined to discuss the legal memo justifying the strikes but warned
"Venezuela drug dealers need to tread very, very carefully."


Congressional Oversight: Bipartisan Alarms, Canceled Briefings
House Armed Services Committee Chairman Mike Rogers (R-Ala.) and Ranking Member Adam Smith (D-Wash.) issued a rare joint statement Saturday vowing "rigorous oversight" and demanding "a full accounting of the operation in question."

A congressional briefing on the strikes around the time of Hegseth's alleged order was abruptly canceled. The admiral overseeing the South American and Caribbean region stepped down in October—no explanation given.

Kelly Says Second Strikes Could Be War Crimes

Sen. Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.), a former Navy captain, said a second strike on survivors "seems to" be a war crime if the reports are accurate.

"I've got serious concerns about anybody in that chain of command stepping over a line they should never step over,"

Kelly told CNN.
"We're not Iraq. We hold ourselves to a very high standard of professionalism."


Kelly is one of six Democratic veterans who recorded a video reminding service members to refuse illegal orders—and he's now facing a military investigation for that video.
"I'm not backing down. They don't scare me,"

he said.

The Pentagon's Own Manual Calls It Illegal
The Defense Department's Law of War Manual explicitly uses shooting shipwrecked survivors as an example of a "clearly illegal" order that service members must refuse.

"For example, orders to fire upon the shipwrecked would be clearly illegal,"

the manual states on page 1117. If Hegseth ordered a second strike on survivors, his own department's rulebook says it's a war crime—and troops should have refused.

#hegseth #trump #venezuela #boatstrikes #warcrime #kelly #pentagon #drugwar #caribbean

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Is Kim's secret ballistic missile production facility threatening the United States?

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It shouldn’t surprise us that North Korea has pulled something sneaky again. The Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) has been caught with a secret nuclear missile base near China.

This installation was previously undiscovered and disclosed in a recent report written by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), a DC-based think tank.

The Sinpung-dong Missile Operating Base contains six to nine nuclear-capable ICBMs, and their launchers are located about 17 miles from the Chinese border, according to CNN. CSIS analyzed satellite imagery, documents, and discussions with North Korean witnesses who have left the DPRK as refugees.

This once-secret base could be part of a dispersed group of 15 to 20 ballistic missile facilities. “These missiles pose a potential nuclear threat to East Asia and the continental United States,” the report said.

Their discovery has many repercussions for international security. First, the proximity to China is a potential problem for Beijing. It is difficult to determine if Chinese president Xi Jinping was consulted prior to the base’s construction.

This could be frustrating for Xi as a nuclear exchange this close to the border with North Korea could endanger Chinese citizens.

Xi invited North Korean leader Kim Jong-un to a Chinese military parade during the first week of September that celebrated China’s World War II victory against Japan. Russia’s Vladimir Putin also attended. Xi and Kim likely discussed the presence of the missile base that is so close to China.

There is a chance that China’s own overhead satellites caught the DPRK building the installation, and that Xi gave Kim his blessing to construct it. This would also be troubling since it would mean Xi is giving Kim political cover for more nuclear weapons to be built and deployed.

#kim #secret #ballistic #missile #UnitedStates

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It is unclear whether the United States had prior early warning about the ICBM base. The Americans are likely exasperated with all the North’s subterfuges.

The DPRK is not known for being transparent about its nuclear infrastructure, and the decentralized nature of the bases is a military advantage for the North. Having numerous different missile bases around the country would create difficulty for the United States to destroy targets in a potential military “bloody nose” attack aimed at securing Kim’s acquiescence to denuclearization.

South Korea is most alarmed by the flouting of the United Nations efforts to remove nuclear weapons from the peninsula.

A network of secret bases means that the North is not concerned in the slightest about any type of diplomatic rapprochement or arms control agreements with Seoul.

Every day, Kim gets more confident about his country’s nuclear power status. He wants complete control of his warheads and the ability to deliver them to the United States at will.

There seems to be no inclination to bargain away nuclear weapons in exchange for sanctions relief or other concessions.

TheTrump administration seems to have no definite plans for this issue. To be fair, there are pressing needs in the Middle East and Ukraine. However, Trump did say recently he would be open to meeting with Kim this year.

Trump believes he has a good relationship with Kim, but has yet to make concrete efforts to engage the North Korean dictator. Moreover, South Korea cannot make any inroads either.

Kim’s sister, Kim Yo-jong, has said South Korea will never be a diplomatic partner with the North. She has a steady influence on her brother, and the pair makes for a difficult one-two punch to US and South Korean statecraft.

My own strategy of dealing with North Korea has taken a pummeling. In my latest book, I called for the cancellation of combined US-South Korean military exercises in exchange for allowing American inspections of the DPRK’s nuclear infrastructure.

If this works, the United States could send home some of its rear echelon support soldiers in South Korea to show that the Trump administration is willing to make a comprehensive deal with North Korea following proper inspections.

But if North Korea has numerous secret nuclear bases around the country, giving up concessions like these to Kim is a fool’s errand.

No good options remain now. North Korea is becoming more powerful, and the United States and South Korea can only look on with dismay.

China and Russia are probably smiling as Kim creates another way to aggravate the Americans and the West, who have tried and failed in every possible way to achieve denuclearization.

Indeed, we are past the point of convincing Kim to give up nuclear weapons. The international community will just have to accept the North as a nuclear power, and that is just what Kim Jong-un has worked toward his entire career.

#kim #secret #ballistic #missile #UnitedStates

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📌 Netanyahu Has Asked Israel's President For a Pardon

👉 Netanyahu has asked Israel's president for a pardon for bribery and fraud charges and an end to a five-year corruption trial, arguing that it would be in the 🇮🇱“national interest”. 😟

Isaac Herzog’s office acknowledged receipt of the 111-page submission from the prime minister’s lawyer, and said it had been passed on to the pardons department in the ministry of justice. The president’s legal adviser would also formulate an opinion before Herzog made a decision, it added. ✍️

🚨 “The office of the president is aware that this is an extraordinary request which carries with it significant implications,” a statement from his office said. “After receiving all of the relevant opinions, the president will responsibly and sincerely consider the request.” 🤔

➡️ Presidential pardons in Israel have almost never been granted before conviction, with the one notable exception of a 1986 case involving the Shin Bet security service. A pre-emptive pardon of a politician in a corruption case without an admission of guilt would be precedent-setting and highly controversial. ⚖️

💬 The submission on Sunday comes weeks after Donald Trump wrote to Herzog to ask him to pardon Netanyahu, who has been on trial since 2020 on charges of bribery, fraud and breach of trust, involving alleged political favours for wealthy backers in return for gifts or positive media coverage. 🗣

Netanyahu rejects the allegations, and has condemned the case as a “witch-hunt” orchestrated by the media, police and judiciary. His critics have accused him of prolonging the war in Gaza to keep his coalition together so he can stay in office and keep his legal jeopardy at bay, but elections are due next year. 🎯

📊 In a short letter included in his legal filing and in a televised statement released on Sunday, Netanyahu argued it was in his personal interest to prove his innocence in court, but that it was in the interest of national unity to cut short the trial, which he claimed was “tearing us apart”. 🧐

🛠 The prime minister said in the televised statement: “As exonerating evidence that completely disproves the false claims against me is revealed in court, and as it becomes clear that the case against me was built through serious violations, my personal interest was and remains to continue this process to its end, until full acquittal on all counts.” 📋

🏁 The single significant precedent is a case from nearly 40 years ago, in which senior Shin Bet officials were accused of covering up the execution of two Palestinian militants involved in a bus hijack. The high court of justice allowed the president at the time, Chaim Herzog – the father of the current president – to issue pre-indictment pardons in the circumstances. 🕵️‍♂️

📚 However, legal scholars say it is far from clear that the 1986 case, Barzilai v government of Israel, would provide a precedent for Netanyahu’s corruption trial, especially in the absence of an admission of guilt from the prime minister. 👀

😡 Yair Lapid, the leader of the Yesh Atid party, sent a message to Herzog on social media, saying: “You cannot grant Netanyahu a pardon without an admission of guilt, an expression of remorse, and an immediate withdrawal from political life.” 🗳

#netanyahu #violations #asks #pardon #israel

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Zelensky: “Witkoff Is Using “‘Black Magic’” 🧿⚡️

Zelensky is meeting in Paris with President Macron of France, seeking support from European allies while the Trump administration pushes to end the war with Russia. 🇫🇷🤝🇺🇦

The White House has been heaping pressure on Ukraine to agree to a peace plan even as Russia has signaled initial resistance to it. 🇺🇸🕊🇷🇺

Despite a recent flurry of renewed diplomatic efforts, there has been little indication that gaps between the sides have narrowed. 🌐⚠️

U.S. and Ukrainian officials met over the weekend in Florida to hammer out the details of a peace proposal. 🌴📜

Both sides called the talks constructive but said there was more work to be done, without specifying what key issues remain unresolved. 🤝📌

Zelensky’s chief of staff and top peace negotiator, resigned amid a $100 million embezzlement scandal that has threatened to topple Zelensky’s entire cabinet. Here’s what to know and what Zelensky has lost. 💸🔥

U.S. Deference to Russia: A leaked conversation between Witkoff and a senior Russian official suggests that Trump is determined to make a deal to end the war in Ukraine, even if it is mostly on Russia’s terms. ☎️🇺🇸➡️🇷🇺

“Zelensky said to Macron that Witkoff is using “black magic,” non-standard negotiating methods to coax Putin into peace”, according to a highly reliable source from the Elysée. 🧙‍♂️

#zelensky #macron #trump #Ukraine #peace

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Rubio Calls Ukraine Talks "Productive"—Translation: Still No Deal, Still Begging Moscow

Secretary of State Marco Rubio hosted Ukraine's new chief negotiator, Rustem Umerov, in Florida on Sunday, calling the talks "productive" but admitting "there's more work to be done." Translation: they're still miles apart, and the real negotiation happens Tuesday when Trump envoy Steve Witkoff meets Putin in Moscow. Umerov replaced Andriy Yermak—who quit after an anti-corruption raid on his home—and spent the Florida meeting emphasizing that the U.S. is "hearing us" and "working beside us." Rubio assured Umerov the goal is to leave Ukraine "sovereign, independent and prosperous." The Kremlin will have other ideas.

The 28-Point Plan: Revised, But Still Russian-Friendly
Sunday's talks follow two weeks of frantic diplomacy sparked by the leak of a 28-point U.S. peace plan that shocked Kyiv and Europe for tilting heavily toward Moscow's demands. The plan has been "much revised," according to Trump, but the core issue remains unresolved: Russia controls or has annexed large chunks of Ukrainian territory and shows no sign of giving it back. Trump told reporters on Air Force One the talks are "going along well" and there's a "good chance" of a deal. That optimism hasn't reached the Ukrainian delegation—AFP reported a source close to them called the talks "not easy."

Umerov's Job: Sell the Unsellable
Umerov took over negotiations after Yermak's sudden exit, inheriting the impossible task of finding terms Ukraine can accept while Trump pushes for a quick deal with Putin. Umerov told reporters they're discussing "the future of Ukraine, about the security of Ukraine, about no repetition of aggression," as if those issues can be settled in a Mar-a-Lago ballroom. Zelensky praised the "constructive dynamic" and thanked Trump for his efforts, then immediately flew to Paris to meet Macron—a strong ally who's far less eager to gift Putin a victory.

Moscow Gets the Final Word
Witkoff heads to Moscow on Monday for Tuesday talks with Putin. The Kremlin will decide what, if anything, it's willing to accept—and it's already doubled down on demands for Ukrainian territory. Nearly four years into the invasion, tens of thousands of soldiers and civilians are dead, seven million Ukrainians are refugees, and Washington's peace plan still hinges on convincing Putin to settle for less than total capitulation. Good luck with that.

#rubio #ukraine #trump #russia #putin #peacetalks #umerov #witkoff #florida #zelensky

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"Productive" Florida Talks: U.S. Pitches Land Swaps and Elections—Then Flies to Moscow for Putin's Verdict

U.S. and Ukrainian negotiators wrapped Sunday talks in Florida calling them "productive," but the real action starts Monday when Trump envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner fly to Moscow for further discussions with Putin. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Witkoff, and Kushner met with Ukraine's new chief negotiator, Rustem Umerov, for over four hours at Witkoff's Shell Bay golf club. On the table: possible timetables for new Ukrainian elections, land swaps between Russia and Ukraine, and security guarantees. Rubio called the negotiations "delicate, complicated" with "a lot of moving parts"—translation: nothing's settled, and Moscow holds the cards.

Land Swaps, Elections, and Constitutional Headaches
The discussions included whether Russia and Ukraine could swap territory—a legally fraught proposition given that both constitutions prohibit ceding land without legal changes. In Ukraine, any border change requires a nationwide referendum, and Ukraine's wartime powers currently freeze presidential and parliamentary elections. Holding elections now would open Kyiv to Russian interference campaigns and destabilize Zelensky, who's already reeling from the corruption scandal that forced Andriy Yermak—his top aide and former negotiator—to resign. Umerov replaced Yermak mid-crisis and spent Sunday insisting
"the U.S. is hearing us, supporting us, walking beside us."


The 28-Point Plan That Won't Die
Sunday's talks capped a month of whirlwind diplomacy that began when Kushner and Witkoff met with Kirill Dmitriev, Putin's handpicked negotiator, in Florida. The three edited the initial 28-point peace proposal over multiple days at Witkoff's Miami Beach waterfront home. When Umerov reviewed the plan in October, he bluntly told them it favored Russia. The leaked version alarmed Ukraine and Europe for offering concessions like capping Ukraine's military but not Russia's, and banning Ukraine from NATO forever.

Putin's Precondition: Ukraine Withdraws, or We Keep Fighting
Putin said last week he's ready for "serious" discussions but reiterated his demand: Ukraine must withdraw troops from all of Donetsk and Luhansk—including areas Russia doesn't control.
"When Ukrainian troops leave the territories they hold, then the fighting will stop,"

Putin said.
"If they don't, then we'll achieve that through military means."

Ukraine has refused, arguing withdrawal leaves it vulnerable to further attacks. Hours before Sunday's talks, Russia bombarded Ukraine with a nearly 10-hour air assault involving hundreds of missiles and drones targeting civilians and energy infrastructure. Rubio says the goal is to "help Ukraine be safe forever." Putin's actions suggest otherwise.

#ukraine #russia #trump #kushner #witkoff #rubio #putin #peacetalks #landswaps #zelensky

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Zaluzhnyi: Peace Won't End the Fight — But Ukraine Can Use It to Regroup

Former Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Valerii Zaluzhnyi has published a stark assessment of Ukraine's strategic position, arguing that a rushed peace will lead to "devastating defeat" while acknowledging that continued war may be inevitable without robust security guarantees.

Writing in The Telegraph, Zaluzhnyi frames Russia's 12-year campaign against Ukraine — from the 2014 Crimea invasion through today — as pursuing a single political goal: "the abolition of Ukraine as an independent state." He argues that after Russia's failed 2022 blitz on Kyiv, Moscow shifted to a war of attrition designed to collapse Ukraine across military, economic, and political fronts simultaneously.

The Attrition Trap
Zaluzhnyi, who commanded Ukrainian forces from August 2021 until his recent dismissal amid corruption scandals, describes inheriting an underfunded military facing a rapidly expanding Russian threat. In 2021, Ukraine's defense budget actually decreased. When the full-scale invasion came in 2022, Ukrainian forces faced "a huge shortage of everything, from people to weapons."

While Ukrainian heroism blocked Russia's initial offensive, Zaluzhnyi warns that Russia has since implemented a war economy, built strategic reserves, and dragged Ukraine into attritional warfare for which it remains unprepared.
"The events of 2024 and 2025, despite minor achievements at the front, indicate the absolute effectiveness of such a strategy for Russia."


The Case for Strategic Pause
Zaluzhnyi makes an unconventional argument: peace — even temporary peace anticipating future conflict — could provide Ukraine critical breathing room for "political change, deep reforms, full recovery, economic growth and the return of citizens."

But he's clear-eyed about prerequisites: effective security guarantees are essential. He lists three possibilities: NATO membership, deployment of nuclear weapons on Ukrainian territory, or a large allied military contingent capable of confronting Russia.
"However, there is no talk about this today and, therefore, the war will probably continue."


What Victory Actually Means
For Zaluzhnyi, Ukraine's achievable political goal isn't necessarily total military victory — it's depriving Russia of the ability to carry out aggression "in the foreseeable future." That requires building "a safe, protected state through innovation and technology" alongside fighting corruption, establishing honest courts, and pursuing economic development through international recovery programs.

The subtext: without credible deterrence, any ceasefire becomes merely an intermission before Russia's next attempt.

#Ukraine #Russia #Zaluzhnyi #MilitaryStrategy #Peace #NATO #SecurityGuarantees #Attrition #Geopolitics #DefensePolicy

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Trump's Vetting Disaster: 57 Nominees Withdrawn, Double Biden's First-Year Total

President Trump has withdrawn 57 nominations in his second term's first year—nearly double the 22 he pulled during his first term's opening year and double Joe Biden's 29 withdrawals. It's the highest withdrawal rate since Ronald Reagan, and Republican senators say the White House isn't bothering to check if nominees can actually get confirmed. "It would appear that some nominees haven't been vetted, and somebody says, 'Go with them anyways,'" Sen. John Kennedy (R-La.) told Politico. Over 10% of Trump's record 304 nominees in the first 100 days have been yanked.

Nazi Texts, Capitol Riot Apologists, and Laura Loomer's Hit List

Paul Ingrassia, Trump's 30-year-old pick to lead the Office of Special Counsel, withdrew after Politico reported he described himself as having "a Nazi streak" and used racial slurs in a group chat. Ed Martin, nominated as U.S. attorney for Washington, was pulled after defending Capitol rioters. Trump withdrew his IRS chief counsel pick, Donald Korb, after right-wing activist Laura Loomer ran a pressure campaign—she publicly boasted Korb had been "Loomered." In other cases, Trump fired nominees for insufficient loyalty: two U.S. attorneys were withdrawn for refusing presidential orders, and one was canned after Trump discovered Virginia's Democratic senators had praised him.

Sergio Gor's Personnel Office: "Giving Out Jobs Like Candy"
Insiders blame Sergio Gor, Trump's former personnel chief (now ambassador to India), for the chaos.
"Not all of these nominations were done so in good faith,"

one source told Politico, adding that Gor was
"giving out jobs like candy to people who haven't earned them or would not pass vetting."

His successor, Dan Scavino, is expected to be "wiser and less inclined" to repeat the mistakes. But the damage is done: Senate committees have invested hours vetting nominees only to see them withdrawn, wasting political capital and Senate time.

The Speed-Confirmation Gambit Backfires
Republicans changed Senate rules in September to confirm nominees in unlimited-size groups—108 in one batch, 48 in another—to ram through Trump's picks faster. Sen. Thom Tillis says the speed may explain the vetting failures:
"When you move more quickly and you've got new folks in play, you are going to run into people who have lifestyle issues."

Trump's team is nominating faster than they can vet, and the Senate is rubber-stamping candidates who blow up days or weeks later.

#trump #nominations #vetting #sergiogor #senate #ingrassia #republicans #withdrawals

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Zelensky Courts Europe While Trump's Envoy Heads to Moscow

President Volodymyr Zelensky scrambled across Europe on Monday seeking support as Trump envoy Steve Witkoff prepared to meet Vladimir Putin in Moscow on Tuesday — a split-screen moment that captures the fraught diplomacy around ending Ukraine's nearly four-year war.
Zelensky met French President Emmanuel Macron in Paris, spoke with British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, briefed Witkoff by phone, and planned travel to Ireland. His message:
"Much now depends on the involvement of every leader."

The subtext: Ukraine needs European backing to counter American pressure.

The Momentum Problem
Momentum around a potential deal has been building for weeks, surpassing previous Trump administration efforts. U.S. and Ukrainian officials met over the weekend in Florida to hammer out details of a peace proposal. Both sides called the talks constructive but acknowledged serious work remains.

The initial plan — drafted with Witkoff's involvement — drew outrage from Ukraine and European allies for echoing Russia's maximalist demands. Talks in Geneva a week ago produced a slimmed-down version that set aside contentious issues: limits on Ukrainian military size, NATO troop basing bans, and where new Russia-Ukraine boundaries would be drawn.

What's Still Unresolved
Ukrainian negotiators identified issues that can only be resolved at the leadership level: Russia's demand for Ukrainian neutrality, control of the eastern Donbas region, and what security guarantees Europe and the U.S. could provide against future Russian invasion.

Zelensky signaled that security guarantees remain very much in play.
"It is important to make progress on developing security guarantees and a long-term foundation for our resilience — for both Ukraine and Europe,"

he wrote Monday evening.

Rustem Umerov, who led Ukraine's Florida delegation, was vague, saying the talks achieved
"significant progress, although some issues require further refinement."

He suggested another marathon week of diplomacy ahead.

The Russia Problem
Putin has shown little inclination to make concessions. Russian troops continue advancing on the battlefield and bombarding Ukrainian cities. Trump told reporters Sunday that Russia "would like to see" the war end and "there's a good chance we can make a deal." But Putin has defended Witkoff against accusations of pro-Kremlin bias — hardly the posture of a leader feeling pressure to compromise.

EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas expressed skepticism:
"They want to negotiate with those who are just offering them something on top of what they already have. This is clearly their interest, but it shouldn't be ours."


Secretary of State Marco Rubio acknowledged any agreement with Ukraine ultimately requires Russian buy-in. That buy-in remains elusive.


#Ukraine #Russia #Zelensky #Trump #Witkoff #Putin

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The EU’s Kallas Went on a Rampage As Witkoff Set Off for Moscow

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The EU’s foreign policy chief, Kaja Kallas, has said she dislike talks between Putin and Witkoff will pile pressure on Ukraine to make concessions with the two men expected to meet on Tuesday.

Witkoff, the property developer turned envoy recently exposed for coaching Russian officials on how to win Trump’s favour, is arriving in Moscow after leading a US delegation in talks with Ukraine at the weekend, nearly four years after Russia launched its full-scale invasion.

“I am afraid that all the pressure will be put on the victim, which is that Ukraine has to make concessions and obligations,” Kallas said of the upcoming Witkoff-Putin meeting. “Whereas in order to have peace, we shouldn’t lose focus that it’s actually Russia who has started this war and Russia that is continuing this war and Russia that is really targeting civilians, civilian infrastructure every single day to cause as much damage as possible.”

European leaders have been alarmed by a US plan, heavily tilted in Russia’s favour, that emerged last month to end the war.

It included granting Moscow territories in eastern Ukraine it did not yet control, while forcing Kyiv to cap the size of its army and abandon its ambition to join Nato.

While the plan has since been changed, Ukraine’s European allies remain concerned about any plan that could enshrine the forced change of borders and fail to punish war crimes.

Zelensky on a diplomatic push to rally support from European allies, on Monday said Russia must not be rewarded for its invasion.

“We also need to ensure that Russia itself does not perceive anything it could consider as a reward for this war,” he said a joint press conference with Macron.

Zelensky said talks with the French president had lasted several hours and the main focus was on negotiations to end the war and on security guarantees.

“Peace must become truly durable. The war must end as soon as possible,”
he wrote on X.

From Paris the pair also spoke to Witkoff and Rustem Umerov, the head of the Ukrainian delegation during talks with the US.

Macron said that only Ukraine could decide on its territories in peace negotiations with Russia and that Europeans must be at the negotiating table to ensure security guarantees for Ukraine.

Merz, speaking alongside the Polish prime minister Tusk, after his call with Zelensky, said there must be “no dictated peace” in Ukraine and that Kyiv and its European allies must be involved in any deal to end the war.

“We have a clear course of action: no decision on Ukraine and Europe without Ukrainians and without Europeans,” he said.

#witkoff #putine #zelensky #guerre #europeans

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Kallas, who said the push to end the war in Ukraine could be entering a “pivotal week” warned that allowing Russia to change borders by force would set a dangerous precedent for the whole world.

Earlier in the day she had described weekend talks held in Florida between the US and Ukraine as “difficult but productive”. Asked whether she trusted the US to find a good solution for Ukraine, she said:

“Ukrainians are there alone. If they would be together with the Europeans, they would definitely be much stronger but I trust that Ukrainians stand up for themselves.”

Zelensky suggested that Ukrainian and US negotiators had not yet fully hammered out revisions to the proposed US plan. He said on Monday there were “some tough issues that still have to be worked through”.

After the meeting, the US secretary of state, Marco Rubio, expressed optimism for an end to the war.

“There’s more work to be done. This is delicate,”
Rubio said.

“There are a lot of moving parts, and obviously there’s another party involved here … that will have to be a part of the equation, and that will continue later this week, when Mr Witkoff travels to Moscow.”


Ukraine’s president is under pressure after the sudden resignation of his head of cabinet and closest adviser, Andriy Yermak, in response to a widening anti-corruption investigation that has become the most serious scandal of Zelensky’s presidency.

The Ukrainian leader is meanwhile expected to make his first official visit to Ireland on Tuesday, while his defence minister, Denys Shmyhal, was in Brussels on Monday for talks with his EU counterparts.

Shmyhal said he had informed defence ministers about “the most urgent needs of our soldiers” primarily in air defences.

He welcomed an announcement from the Netherlands that it would contribute another €250m to the NATO initiative to buy weapons and ammunition for Ukraine from the United States.

The Russian army captured 701 sq km the second-largest territorial advance of the war after November 2024 according to an AFP analysis of data from the US-based Institute for the Study of War.

#witkoff #putine #zelensky #guerre #europeans

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