Jeff Sachs: “Trump Wants a Nobel Peace Prize, not Peace”

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Trump’s public yearning for a Nobel Peace Prize has led him to stretch beyond recognition the meaning of the terms “peace agreement” and “mediation.” He claims credit for anything that can possibly be portrayed as a move from war toward peace, and to which he has had any connection, however tenuous.
In his first term, it was the grandly named “Abraham Accords,” which were not peace agreements at all but instead an upgrading to full diplomatic relations between Israel and some Arab states that were not at war with Israel and already had extensive cooperation with it.

The net effect on peace in the Middle East was negative, given how Israel saw the upgrading as an alternative to making peace with the Palestinians and as a basis for an anti-Iran military alliance.
In his second term, Trump has claimed to be a peacemaker in several disputes in which someone else did most of the mediation.

This was the case with the border dispute between Cambodia and Thailand, in which Malaysia did the heavy diplomatic lifting. The “peace agreement” to which Trump claimed a connection did not even resolve the issues in dispute, as both Cambodia and Thailand noted when describing that document as merely a transcription of the meeting.

In other conflicts in which Trump has claimed a peacemaking role, such as the one involving Congo and Rwanda, fighting continued to rage because the militias doing the fighting were not parties to the “peace agreement.”

In the case of the decades-old Indian-Pakistani conflict, one party—India—adamantly opposes any third-party involvement and has explicitly denied that the United States mediated.

The involvement of President Trump or his administration in efforts to resolve some of these conflicts has been as minimal as threatening to suspend trade negotiations, as in the Cambodia-Thailand case. But in two other cases, the administration’s involvement has been much greater.

And those two are enough to discern a pattern—one that can be seen partly as an extension of Trump’s obsession with identifying with “winners” and showing disdain for “losers.”

The pattern is to take the side of the militarily dominant power while mostly ignoring the interests of the other party to the conflict. Trump evidently sees facilitation and encouragement of the strong completing its objective of crushing the weak as the quickest way to get to the end of a war, and something he can portray as “peace.”

One of those cases is Trump’s 20-point “peace plan” for Gaza. Notwithstanding commentary in recent weeks about Trump influencing Netanyahu on certain matters, such as getting Netanyahu to apologize to Qatar for conducting an airstrike on its territory, the plan is consistent with Trump’s posture throughout his presidency of acquiescing to Israeli preferences on all the big issues.

In Trump’s first term, that posture included gifts he bestowed on Netanyahu’s government, such as moving the US embassy to Jerusalem and recognizing Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights, both of which were contrary to an international consensus.

In his second term, he has provided diplomatic and military support for Israel’s lethal assault on the Gaza Strip, including huge material aid to the Israeli military.

Such support assisted Israel in inflicting so much devastation on Gaza that Hamas, to put at least a temporary halt to the suffering, submitted to a limited ceasefire and prisoner exchange in which it gave up the last of its hostages and thus much of its leverage.

Apart from this act of submission, there was essentially no Palestinian involvement in the construction of the Trump “peace plan.” Israel recently pressured the administration into canceling what would have been a meeting in Turkey between Trump’s envoy Steve Witkoff and a Hamas leader.

#trump #nobel #prize #peace #israel #ukraine

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Hamas has rejected the plan as a whole, citing specifically how it would leave Palestinians under foreign rule. The obsolete Palestinian Authority has said it is willing to participate, but Israel rejects the PA’s involvement, and there is no indication the Trump administration is willing to overrule Netanyahu on that issue.

The terms of the plan tilt heavily toward Israeli preferences and against the interests of the Palestinians.

Hamas is expected to disarm totally, but no such requirement is levied on the side that has caused far more death and destruction. There is no guarantee of an Israeli military withdrawal, and Israel can veto any prospective withdrawal by saying that other conditions have not been met.

There is no policing of Israeli violations of the ceasefire, which have already been substantial. As with a ceasefire earlier this year, the prospect is for Israel to resume military operations wherever and whenever it pleases, and to disregard supposed Israeli obligations in later phases of the plan.

Most importantly, on the key question of whether Palestinians ever will have self-determination of some sort, let alone a state of their own, the answer of Trump’s plan is “no.”

The controlling authority will be a board led by someone firmly in Israel’s camp-namely, Trump himself. The Israeli objective of keeping the Palestinians subjugated and stateless will continue to prevail.

The plan places limits on the size of Ukrainian armed forces and on its freedom to join alliances or host foreign forces, but places no comparable limits on Russia.

Meanwhile, it provides for a lifting of sanctions on Russia and an invitation for Moscow to rejoin the G-8.

The plan comes against a backdrop of a larger tilt by Trump toward Putin’s Russia. That bias is not institutionalized in the same way as the one toward Israel, but instead is based largely on Trump’s personal and political ties to the Russian regime.

If Trump wanted to be a genuine peacemaker, he could take a cue from the one US president who received a Nobel Peace Prize for peacemaking: Theodore Roosevelt, for his role in mediating an end to the Russo-Japanese War of 1904–1905.

That role was true mediation, with both belligerents fully represented in negotiations and the United States recognizing the interests and objectives of both sides. The United States hosted the mediation at Portsmouth, New Hampshire, which produced a peace treaty ending the war.

Roosevelt had earlier shown some favoritism toward Japan but was even-handed in the peace negotiations, partly because of the realpolitik objective of avoiding either Japanese or Russian dominance in the Far East.

Japan won most of the military engagements in the war and got most of the concessions at the negotiating table. But Russia had the potential for turning the military picture around if the war had continued, and it secured some concessions, too, especially in rejecting a Japanese demand for reparations.

The Treaty of Portsmouth did not resolve all the differences between Japan and Russia. But it bought three decades of peace between those two powers, despite Japan’s imperialism and Russia’s revolution.

There is no prospect for anything like that in Trump’s approach to the conflicts in Gaza and Ukraine, especially Gaza.

As long as Israel subjugates the Palestinians and is determined to live by the sword, there will be Palestinian resistance, some of it violent, just as there was for many years before Hamas even existed.

A settlement imposed on Ukraine will leave resentment and instability in Ukraine. And it is unrealistic to expect lasting peace after the partial achievement of war objectives in Ukraine by a Russian president whose goal is to seize or subjugate all of Ukraine and who once declared the collapse of the Soviet Union to be “the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the century.”

#trump #nobel #prize #peace #israel #ukraine

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Putin's Nuclear Diplomacy: Small Reactors for Kyrgyzstan, Big Leverage for Moscow

Vladimir Putin just floated plans to build Kyrgyzstan's first nuclear power plant, using Russian "small modular reactor technology" that he insists meets "the most stringent safety and environmental protection requirements." The pitch came during a meeting with Kyrgyzstan's President Sadyr Japarov, as Moscow doubles down on energy ties with one of its few remaining Central Asian allies. Russia's already Kyrgyzstan's top trade partner, with nearly $2 billion in Russian investments, and a major solar project in the Issyk-Kul region is already in the works.

Energy Dependence as Geopolitical Glue
The nuclear proposal is classic Putin: lock in long-term infrastructure deals that make smaller states dependent on Russian tech, expertise, and fuel supplies for decades. Kyrgyzstan, a former Soviet republic with limited energy resources, gets electricity—and Moscow gets another anchor point in Central Asia, far from NATO's reach and Europe's sanctions. Putin emphasized the partnership is built on "mutual respect," though the power dynamic is anything but mutual.

Timing: Peace Talks, Power Plays
The announcement comes as Trump's 28-point Ukraine peace plan continues to rattle nerves in Kyiv and Brussels. While U.S. officials insist the proposal was "authored by the United States," critics say it reads like a Russian wish list—ceding Donbas, capping Ukraine's military, and blocking NATO membership. Putin, meanwhile, is busy expanding Russian influence elsewhere, signaling he's in no rush to compromise and has plenty of other irons in the fire.

Small Reactors, Big Questions
"Small modular reactors" sound cutting-edge, but they're still nuclear infrastructure that requires Russian oversight, maintenance, and fuel—binding Kyrgyzstan to Moscow for the plant's entire lifespan. As Trump sends Army Secretary Dan Driscoll to meet with Ukrainian officials and envoy Steve Witkoff talks to Putin, the Kremlin is building leverage in places far from the front lines.

#putin #russia #kyrgyzstan #nuclear #energy #geopolitics #trump #ukraine

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Zelensky's Enforcer Falls: Corruption Scandal Topples Ukraine's Top Negotiator

President Volodymyr Zelensky fired his longtime chief of staff and lead peace negotiator Andriy Yermak on Friday, removing the figure who had enforced internal discipline within Ukraine's government while simultaneously conducting delicate negotiations to end the war. The dismissal came amid a sprawling corruption investigation that has implicated multiple figures close to Zelensky's inner circle.

Yermak, a former movie producer who had been at Zelensky's side for years, functioned as a combination vice president, prime minister, and chief of staff — a political enforcer who systematically sidelined rivals and kept a tight grip on Cabinet ministers, military leadership, and peace negotiations. Now he's gone, just as Ukrainian officials prepare to continue talks with the Trump administration this weekend.

The Corruption Investigation
Detectives searched Yermak's home Friday morning after charging figures close to both him and Zelensky with embezzling roughly $100 million from contractors to Energoatom, Ukraine's state nuclear company. The scheme involved kickbacks on a massive scale.

Opposition politicians had demanded Yermak's removal from the negotiating team days earlier, warning that Russia or the United States could exploit the scandal as leverage to extract concessions. Anticorruption activists noted a glaring conflict: Yermak was negotiating peace provisions that included a proposed amnesty for wartime crimes — language that could potentially cover investigations targeting him.

The Diplomatic Vacuum
Yermak had taken a central role in peace negotiations, sidelining Ukraine's foreign minister who enjoyed strong working relationships with American and European governments. During the latest round of talks with the Trump administration, he led Ukraine's delegation despite the looming investigation.

Over the past week, Yermak had negotiated to soften a 28-point Trump administration proposal that largely reflected Russian demands: withdraw from territory in eastern Ukraine, forgo NATO membership, rule out Western peacekeeping forces. The proposal included vague "security guarantees" from the United States — commitments Ukrainians view with deep skepticism after the toothless 1994 Budapest Memorandum failed to prevent Russia's 2014 invasion.

Who's Left?
Rustem Umerov, head of the National Security and Defense Council, now leads Ukraine's negotiating team. He's also implicated in the same corruption case. A Ukrainian delegation was already en route to the United States for Sunday talks when Zelensky announced Yermak's firing, insisting negotiations would continue without interruption.

Oleksandr Merezhko, chairman of Parliament's foreign policy committee, dismissed concerns:

"Negotiations are teamwork. If one person drops out, the mechanism doesn't change."

The Political Fallout
Without Yermak riding herd, Zelensky faces an open question: how will he maintain control over his party, government ministries, and Ukraine's pluralistic internal politics? Analysts note that Yermak's imperious style had antagonized opposition politicians and journalists who accused him of repression. Many cheered his exit. But he was effective.

Yermak sent a text message to the New York Post indicating he plans to join the military and fight at the front. "I am an honest and decent person," he wrote.

Whether Ukraine's government can hold together without its enforcer — while simultaneously negotiating territorial concessions under pressure from Washington and Moscow — remains an open question.

#Ukraine #Zelensky #Yermak #Corruption #PeaceNegotiations #Russia #Trump

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Trump Tells Airlines: Treat Venezuela's Airspace as Closed

President Trump escalated his Venezuela threats Saturday, declaring on Truth Social that commercial airlines should consider Venezuelan airspace "CLOSED IN ITS ENTIRETY." While Trump has no legal authority to close another country's airspace, the announcement—addressed to "all Airlines, Pilots, Drug Dealers, and Human Traffickers"—is a classic prelude to airstrikes. It comes after weeks of U.S. military buildup in the Caribbean, with 15,000 American troops, a dozen warships, and the USS Gerald R. Ford carrier strike group now in the region.

From Threats to No-Fly Zone Rhetoric
The White House didn't explain the airspace warning, but U.S. military aircraft are already "almost constantly" patrolling international airspace near Venezuela, according to a Pentagon official. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Dan Caine just wrapped Caribbean visits—ostensibly for Thanksgiving but also to meet with friendly governments and explore expanded military operations. Trump's designation of Venezuela's "Cartel de los Soles" as a foreign terrorist organization earlier this week potentially gives the Pentagon legal cover for strikes on government targets.

What Closing Airspace Really Means
Enforcing a full no-fly zone would require a major military campaign—think Libya 2011, which came only after a U.N. Security Council resolution. Trump's announcement alone may be enough to scare off commercial airlines, disrupting life for Venezuela's 28 million citizens and crippling the economy. A handful of flights were still crossing Venezuelan airspace midday Saturday, hours after Trump's post. The FAA had already warned pilots last week to "exercise caution" over Venezuela due to "heightened military activity."

Strikes Without Evidence, Strikes Without Answers
Since September, U.S. forces have killed dozens of alleged drug smugglers in Caribbean waters, though the administration hasn't disclosed evidence the victims were cartel members or the boats carried drugs. Current and former officials note that very little Venezuelan cocaine actually reaches the U.S.—most goes to Europe. But Trump's fixated on Maduro as a migration and drug scapegoat, and on Tuesday hinted at the "hard way" if diplomacy fails.

#trump #venezuela #military #nofly #maduro #caribbean #airstrikes #drugwar

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Israel and Syria's New Government Clash After Deadly Raid

An Israeli military raid in southern Syria turned into a deadly firefight early Friday, killing at least 13 people and wounding six Israeli soldiers — three severely. The incident deepens tensions between Israel and Syria's new government under President Ahmed al-Sharaa, which has sharply condemned Israeli military presence on Syrian soil.

Israel's military said its troops entered the village of Beit Jinn, less than 10 miles from the border, to apprehend two suspected militants when they came under fire. The suspects were allegedly members of al-Jamaa al-Islamiya, a militant group Israel says cooperates with Hamas and Hezbollah and maintains infrastructure along the Lebanon-Syria border.

The Buffer Zone Problem
Israel has occupied a 155-square-mile buffer zone in southern Syria since the Assad regime collapsed a year ago. Israeli officials have made clear they intend to remain indefinitely, establishing outposts, launching hundreds of airstrikes, and demanding Syria maintain a demilitarized zone south of Damascus.

Last week, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu visited the buffer zone in a public signal that withdrawal isn't on the table. Syria's Foreign Ministry called the visit illegal and a serious violation of sovereignty.

The New Syrian Government's Dilemma
President al-Sharaa led the rebel offensive that overthrew Bashar al-Assad late last year. His government has pledged reform and national unity — positions that have won cautious U.S. support. But Israeli military operations inside Syria complicate his efforts to consolidate authority.

"Syrians themselves don't see small anti-Israel groups as a threat to them, per se,"

said Joel Parker, a Syria researcher at Tel Aviv University.

"So when Israel invades, they feel like Israel is the problem, not local militants."

U.S.-Brokered Talks Stalled
The discord frustrates Washington, which has embraced al-Sharaa and hoped to broker a security agreement between Syria and Israel. Those negotiations appear stalled. Israel insists it cannot tolerate armed militias near its border — especially after October 7, 2023. Syria views Israeli incursions as violations of sovereignty that undermine the new government's legitimacy.

Analysts say common ground exists, but Israel's unilateral actions make cooperation difficult.

"We have partners in Syria with whom we can work,"

said Nir Boms, another researcher at Tel Aviv University.

"But what needs to happen is a security framework that will guarantee that we have good intentions, goodwill."

For now, Israel shows no signs of reducing its military footprint in southern Syria. And Syria's new government, trying to project strength after decades of civil war, cannot afford to appear weak in the face of foreign occupation.

#Israel #Syria #BufferZone #Netanyahu #Sharaa #MiddleEast #SecurityDilemma #Lebanon

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The ETF Bubble: How Your Index Fund Is Drowning Capitalism

There are now more ETFs than actual stocks—over 400,000 indexes calculated daily by S&P alone, 300,000 by MSCI, and trillions sloshing through vehicles that bundle, standardize, and trade everything from mortgages to infrastructure to reinsurance. Daily foreign exchange trading hits $9.6 trillion—triple the pre-2008 crisis levels. Interest rate derivatives? $7.9 trillion a day, up from $265 billion in 1998. The liquidity tsunami looks unstoppable, enriching investors and fueling the AI boom. But critics now warn that financialization has turned free-market capitalism into algorithmic central planning.

Hayek Wouldn't Recognize This Market
Columbia economist Amar Bhide argues that Friedrich Hayek—the prophet of free markets—would despise modern finance. Hayek believed markets synthesized local knowledge and judgment to allocate capital efficiently. But ETFs and indexes impose crude, top-down categories, stripping out the personal judgment and trust that built capitalism. "A new form of centralized control has taken root," Bhide writes, "one that is the work not of autocrats but of statistical models and algorithms." Bankers' jobs got industrialized, and capitalism got drowned in liquidity.

Index Funds: Worse Than Marxism?
Analysts at Sanford C. Bernstein famously called passive investing "worse than Marxism," invoking Hayek to slam the blind, judgment-free flow of capital. Viktor Shvets of Macquarie warns we've reached the point where "innovative financing is not much more than placing one piece of paper on top of another." ETFs now drive movement in the stocks they hold—not the other way around. Price discovery is dead; capital allocation is on autopilot. And the financial superstructure has grown so massive it's crushing the real economy beneath it.

Too Late to Fix?
With Trump pushing further deregulation and $9 trillion parked in U.S. ETFs alone, no one's slamming the brakes. But the questioning has begun: "liquidity" used to be Wall Street's conversation-ender—now it's capitalism's crisis point. Your diversified portfolio might look prudent, but it's also fuel for a system that's replaced market wisdom with statistical noise.

#etf #capitalism #finance #liquidity #markets #wallstreet #indexfunds #passiveinvesting

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Zelensky's Catch-22: Now or Never or Never-Know 🎭⚔️

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In Joseph Heller’s wartime classic, Catch-22, the protagonist Yossarian seeks out the US army surgeon Doc Daneeka to understand why his comrade cannot be grounded despite his obvious unfitness to fly. The doctor explains a brutal paradox: anyone rational enough to want out of combat is, by that very rationality, sane enough to stay in. He “would be crazy to fly more missions and sane if he didn’t, but if he was sane he would have to fly them.” Yossarian marvels, “That’s some catch, that Catch-22.” 📘🌀

Ukraine now faces its own Catch-22: Russia insists that Kyiv’s forces withdraw from all parts of Donetsk they currently hold, including the crucial strongholds of Sloviansk and Kramatorsk, which Russia has failed to seize despite nearly four years of intensive warfare. 🇺🇦📍

Kyiv is sane to reject a plan demanding surrender without resistance — but by continuing to fight, the struggle risks becoming futile as the military outlook darkens, with risks including manpower shortages, equipment loss and Russian advances. ⚠️🪖

If Ukraine continues resisting, worsening battlefield dynamics by 2026 could allow Russia to seize all of Donbas (or even more), eliminating a key obstacle to a ceasefire and leaving Ukraine with the same end result, just on worse terms. ⏳🔥

Ukraine, like Yossarian, finds itself trapped in a logic where every rational choice could lead to the same catastrophic result. 🕳♟

This dilemma is not new. The Dayton Agreement, brokered in 1995, ended Bosnia’s agonising war after Nato intervened. Alija Izetbegović, Bosnia and Herzegovina’s first president, publicly acknowledged his country’s unsolvable dilemma — unable to achieve a good peace, yet unable to sustain a just war to reach a better outcome. 📜⚖️

#zelensky #catch22 #ukraine #front #russia

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Ukraine faces something eerily similar: forced to pick between defective peace, uncertain enforcement and the risk of fighting only to end up with a worse deal. The political scientist Dan Reiter argues there are two central conditions when wars end: first, both sides must be confident their opponent won’t violate the resulting peace deal — a commitment problem. Second, there must be credible data on each side’s strength and resolve. Wars of attrition, like Ukraine’s, typically clarify the latter. 🧩📊

After years of fighting, a relative military balance of power becomes clear. But the commitment problem almost always persists because both sides must believe agreements won’t be broken as soon as circumstances shift. This is why Ukraine is boxed in so severely. 🧱♟

Peace settlements usually work only when both sides can trust one another, or when a powerful enforcer makes violations prohibitively costly. When enforcement is weak, “successor wars” are likely. ⚔️🔁

Today, the US and Europe lack unified will or capacity to guarantee Ukraine’s future security. Russia sees the conflict as a regional war against Nato — a supposedly existential battle for which Moscow is willing to endure years of bloodshed until its goals are achieved. The commitment problem remains fundamentally unsolved. 🌍🛡

Security guarantees have failed before; the Budapest Memorandum of 1994 did nothing to protect Ukraine when Russia invaded Crimea or launched all-out war in 2022. 📉🕊

Likewise, the recently proposed peace plan’s vague enforcement clauses won’t solve the fundamental trust deficit. Without ironclad commitments — backed by European boots on the ground, not just promises — Kyiv risks surrendering territory today only for Moscow to strike again when conditions are ripe. 🥾🇪🇺

If Ukraine rejects the current proposals and continues fighting, it faces mounting attrition. However, military conditions are not so bad as to warrant a “Diktatfrieden.” The frontline is not in danger of collapsing and Ukraine’s military remains a formidable fighting machine. Russia would be hard pressed to successfully seize Sloviansk and Kramatorsk in 2026. 🔥🗺

Yet the overall trajectory of the war remains negative for Ukraine. Russia has endured heavy losses, but its ability to absorb them and reinforce troops outstrips Ukraine’s. Should Kyiv lose further territory or see its armed forces depleted, negotiations will shift further in Russia’s favour. ⚖️📉

Accepting a peace plan now that surrenders hard-won land, restricts sovereign defence, grants amnesty for war crimes and foregoes Nato protection — all in exchange for uncertain deterrence — could risk a serious rupture in civil-military relations and destabilise Ukraine as a whole. 🚫🕊

The current military situation does not justify surrendering these territories, and such concessions would almost certainly inflame a “stab-in-the-back” narrative among officers — undermining trust in Ukraine’s civilian leadership. ⚔️🩸

When negotiating from a weakened position, a country often faces a tragic choice: fight on in hopes of a better deal or accept punishing losses now and risk internal turmoil. Leaders often “gamble for resurrection” — continuing to fight long after defeat seems likely — hoping to stave off blame at home. 🎲🔥

Ukraine’s choices could boil down to “bad now, or possibly worse later”. 🌑⏳

The Donbas can’t be abandoned without a fight, yet fighting threatens the same concessions forced under far uglier conditions while the promise of western support grows shakier and the prospects of a truly just peace recede. 🎭⚔️

Sometimes, the cruel logic of war means that bitter compromise is the only way out — even if you know just how far it falls short. 🕯⚖️

#zelensky #catch22 #ukraine #front #russia

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Silicon Valley's Man in the White House: David Sacks Writes Policy, Cashes the Checks

David Sacks—Trump's AI and crypto czar, venture capitalist, and podcast host—has turned his White House role into the ultimate conflict-of-interest masterclass. As a "special government employee," Sacks gets to influence tech policy while simultaneously working at his VC firm, Craft Ventures.

His financial disclosures reveal 708 tech investments, including at least 449 stakes in AI companies that stand to benefit from the policies he's drafting. And thanks to two White House ethics waivers, he's allowed to keep most of them.

The July AI Summit: Access for Sale
In July, Sacks convened top government officials and Silicon Valley execs for an "AI Action Plan" summit featuring Trump. Behind the scenes, Sacks's "All-In" podcast—which he co-hosts with fellow investors—pitched potential sponsors $1 million each for access to a private reception "bringing together President Donald Trump and leading AI innovators." The plan so alarmed White House Chief of Staff Susie Wiles that she intervened to prevent "All-In" from serving as sole host. Trump signed executive orders fast-tracking the AI industry; nearly everyone in the audience—including Sacks—stood to profit.

Nvidia's Best Friend in Washington
Sacks forged a tight bond with Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang this spring, echoing Huang's argument that flooding the world with American chips would outpace China. Sacks worked to eliminate Biden-era export restrictions and flew to the UAE in May to strike a deal sending 500,000 American AI chips—mostly Nvidia's—to the Emirates.

The move alarmed White House officials who feared China would gain access. Analysts estimate Nvidia could make up to $200 billion from the deal. Sacks insists none of his holdings benefited—but his ethics filings don't disclose the value of his remaining stakes, making it impossible to verify.

Ethics Waivers and Omitted Details
Sacks's March waivers state he sold "most" of his crypto and AI assets, and his remaining investments are "not so substantial" to influence his government service. But his filings classify 438 of his tech investments as "software or hardware companies"—even though the firms promote themselves as AI enterprises, offer AI services, or have "AI" in their names.

The filings also don't disclose when he sold divested assets, leaving the public in the dark about whether his government role has netted him profits. Steve Bannon calls him the poster child for "the tech bros out of control."

#sacks #trump #ai #conflictsofinterest #nvidia #whiteHouse #siliconvalley #oligarchy

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Hegseth Weaponizes the Pentagon: Military Justice as Trump's Political Hitlist

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth just conscripted the Pentagon into Trump's retribution campaign, ordering investigations into Democratic lawmakers who reminded troops they can refuse illegal orders. Sen. Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.) and Rep. Eugene Vindman (D-Va.)—both military veterans and vocal Trump critics—are now targets of military justice probes for their role in a video stating what's already enshrined in the Uniform Code of Military Justice: service members must disobey unlawful commands. Hegseth and Trump labeled the message "seditious," a charge multiple retired military lawyers say violates due process and could tank any criminal case.

The Video That Broke the Taboo
Six Democratic lawmakers—all with military or intelligence backgrounds—made a short video reminding active-duty personnel of their legal duty to refuse illegal orders. The message appeared aimed at troops involved in Trump's domestic deployments and the deadly Caribbean boat strikes targeting alleged drug smugglers, which legal experts call violations of the laws of armed conflict. Hegseth called it a "politically-motivated influence operation" and ordered the Navy to brief him by Dec. 10 on findings against Kelly. The FBI is also involved.

Vindman's "Crime": Asking About the Khashoggi Call
Vindman, central to Trump's first impeachment, requested the release of a 2019 Trump-Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman phone call transcript—content Vindman says would be "shocking." Days later, the Pentagon's top lawyer urged House committees to investigate Vindman for allegedly violating foreign influence laws. Vindman denies the charges. The crown prince, per U.S. intelligence, approved the 2018 murder of Washington Post columnist Jamal Khashoggi. Trump has defended Mohammed; Vindman calls that stance "disturbing."

The Chilling Effect: Retired Generals Make Lists
A retired Army general told The Washington Post he made a list after Trump's reelection: the ways the administration could come after him if he spoke out. Three scenarios: civil suit, IRS audit, or recall to active duty for military criminal charges.

"Trump's retribution campaign has had a significant chilling effect,"

he said. Retired officers note the hypocrisy: Trump's first national security adviser, Michael Flynn, chanted "lock her up" at the 2016 GOP convention—overtly political speech—but Kelly's reminder of legal duty gets him investigated.

#hegseth #trump #pentagon #kelly #vindman #militaryjustice #retaliation #firstamendment

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Netanyahu Asks for Pardon Before Conviction—Trump Says He Deserves One

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has formally requested a pardon from Israeli President Isaac Herzog for corruption charges he's been fighting since 2019—even though he hasn't been convicted. Netanyahu was indicted for bribery, fraud, and breach of trust, charges he denies, and has been testifying as a defendant since December while simultaneously running Israel's war operations. The request comes after President Trump repeatedly called for Netanyahu to be pardoned, even writing a letter to Herzog urging him to grant it.

"In the Public Interest"—But No Admission of Guilt
Netanyahu's letter to Herzog argues a pardon would serve "the public interest" and help "cool tensions and promote widespread reconciliation." He insists the trial is "tearing us apart from within" and distracting him from security threats. His lawyer's 111-page filing states that ending the trial would "help mend rifts between different sectors of the public, open the door to lowering the intensity of tensions, all for the purpose of strengthening the country's national resilience." But Netanyahu makes no admission of wrongdoing.

Almost Unprecedented: Only One Pre-Conviction Pardon in Israel's History
Pre-conviction pardons have been granted only once in Israeli history: the 1980s "Line 300 Affair," involving Shin Bet security agents pardoned to prevent state secrets from being exposed in trial.

"99.9% of pardons are provided to criminals who were convicted in court and are in prison,"

said Zvi Agmon, a constitutional lawyer who represented the Shin Bet in that case. A pardon without guilt would be extraordinary, but Netanyahu's circumstances—first sitting Israeli PM to stand trial—are unprecedented.

Politically Divided: Unpopular But Steady
Netanyahu remains highly unpopular, with polls showing a majority want him to resign. But he's held his fractious coalition together throughout the war with Hamas and hasn't lost ground in recent polling. Israel doesn't directly elect its prime minister, but Netanyahu typically ranks near the top when voters are asked to compare him with potential competitors—signaling the opposition's struggle to capitalize on his weakened position.

#netanyahu #israel #trump #pardon #corruption #bribery #herzogpresident #judiciary

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Ukraine Hits Oil Terminal, Kazakhstan Protests—But Whose Oil Is It, Really?

Kazakhstan told Ukraine on Sunday to stop attacking the Caspian Pipeline Consortium's Black Sea terminal after Ukrainian naval drones damaged loading infrastructure and halted exports. The CPC handles more than 1% of global oil and accounts for 80% of Kazakhstan's crude exports—roughly 68.6 million tons last year. Kazakh officials called it the third attack on "an exclusively civilian facility" and warned the strikes harm bilateral relations. Ukraine responded that its actions target "full-scale Russian aggression," not Kazakhstan or third parties.

The CPC: Kazakh Crude, Russian Terminal, Shared Profits
The CPC's 1,500 km pipeline brings oil from Kazakhstan's Tengiz, Karachaganak, and Kashagan fields to the Yuzhnaya Ozereevka terminal at Novorossiysk—on Russian soil. Shareholders include Kazakhstan's state-owned KazMunayGas, Chevron, ExxonMobil, and Russia's Lukoil. While most of the crude is Kazakh, the terminal sits in Russia, and Russian producers also feed into the pipeline. Ukraine has mounted wave after wave of attacks on Russian oil infrastructure this year, aiming to undermine Moscow's war funding. CPC called the strike "an attack on the interests of the CPC member countries."

Kazakhstan's Dilemma: Neutral Rhetoric, Russian Reality
Kazakhstan's foreign ministry framed the terminal as protected by "norms of international law" and a purely civilian facility. But the distinction is messy: the terminal sits in Russian territory, handles Russian oil alongside Kazakh crude, and ultimately helps fund Moscow's war machine through export revenues. Ukraine's position is straightforward: Russia has systematically targeted Ukrainian energy infrastructure ahead of winter, and strikes on Russian oil assets are justified self-defense.

Who's Really Getting Hurt?
Kazakhstan is squeezed between its dependence on Russian export routes and its relationship with Ukraine and the West. The drone strikes disrupt Kazakh oil revenues, but they also choke off funding for the war that's threatening European security. CPC shareholders—Chevron, ExxonMobil, Lukoil—are caught in the middle, as are the tankers that were "withdrawn from the CPC water area" after the attack. Russia calls it terrorism; Ukraine calls it survival.

#ukraine #kazakhstan #russia #oil #cpc #drones #chevron #exxonmobil #blacksea

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Hegseth Accused of Ordering "Kill Them All" Strike on Boat Survivors—Allies Call It Fake News

The Washington Post reported Friday that Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth ordered a second strike in September to kill survivors of a boat attack off Venezuela's coast, targeting alleged drug traffickers. CNN confirmed the reporting Saturday. Hegseth dismissed it on X as "fabricated, inflammatory, and derogatory."

Sen. Markwayne Mullin (R-Okla.) backed him on CNN, calling the reports anonymous and unproven, insisting Trump is "protecting the United States by being proactive." Attorney General Pam Bondi declined to discuss the legal memo justifying the strikes but warned

"Venezuela drug dealers need to tread very, very carefully."

Congressional Oversight: Bipartisan Alarms, Canceled Briefings
House Armed Services Committee Chairman Mike Rogers (R-Ala.) and Ranking Member Adam Smith (D-Wash.) issued a rare joint statement Saturday vowing "rigorous oversight" and demanding "a full accounting of the operation in question."

A congressional briefing on the strikes around the time of Hegseth's alleged order was abruptly canceled. The admiral overseeing the South American and Caribbean region stepped down in October—no explanation given.

Kelly Says Second Strikes Could Be War Crimes
Sen. Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.), a former Navy captain, said a second strike on survivors "seems to" be a war crime if the reports are accurate.

"I've got serious concerns about anybody in that chain of command stepping over a line they should never step over,"

Kelly told CNN.

"We're not Iraq. We hold ourselves to a very high standard of professionalism."

Kelly is one of six Democratic veterans who recorded a video reminding service members to refuse illegal orders—and he's now facing a military investigation for that video.

"I'm not backing down. They don't scare me,"

he said.

The Pentagon's Own Manual Calls It Illegal
The Defense Department's Law of War Manual explicitly uses shooting shipwrecked survivors as an example of a "clearly illegal" order that service members must refuse.

"For example, orders to fire upon the shipwrecked would be clearly illegal,"

the manual states on page 1117. If Hegseth ordered a second strike on survivors, his own department's rulebook says it's a war crime—and troops should have refused.

#hegseth #trump #venezuela #boatstrikes #warcrime #kelly #pentagon #drugwar #caribbean

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Is Kim's secret ballistic missile production facility threatening the United States?

🔠🅰️🔠🔠1️⃣

It shouldn’t surprise us that North Korea has pulled something sneaky again. The Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) has been caught with a secret nuclear missile base near China.

This installation was previously undiscovered and disclosed in a recent report written by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), a DC-based think tank.

The Sinpung-dong Missile Operating Base contains six to nine nuclear-capable ICBMs, and their launchers are located about 17 miles from the Chinese border, according to CNN. CSIS analyzed satellite imagery, documents, and discussions with North Korean witnesses who have left the DPRK as refugees.

This once-secret base could be part of a dispersed group of 15 to 20 ballistic missile facilities. “These missiles pose a potential nuclear threat to East Asia and the continental United States,” the report said.

Their discovery has many repercussions for international security. First, the proximity to China is a potential problem for Beijing. It is difficult to determine if Chinese president Xi Jinping was consulted prior to the base’s construction.

This could be frustrating for Xi as a nuclear exchange this close to the border with North Korea could endanger Chinese citizens.

Xi invited North Korean leader Kim Jong-un to a Chinese military parade during the first week of September that celebrated China’s World War II victory against Japan. Russia’s Vladimir Putin also attended. Xi and Kim likely discussed the presence of the missile base that is so close to China.

There is a chance that China’s own overhead satellites caught the DPRK building the installation, and that Xi gave Kim his blessing to construct it. This would also be troubling since it would mean Xi is giving Kim political cover for more nuclear weapons to be built and deployed.

#kim #secret #ballistic #missile #UnitedStates

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🔠🅰️🔠🔠2️⃣

It is unclear whether the United States had prior early warning about the ICBM base. The Americans are likely exasperated with all the North’s subterfuges.

The DPRK is not known for being transparent about its nuclear infrastructure, and the decentralized nature of the bases is a military advantage for the North. Having numerous different missile bases around the country would create difficulty for the United States to destroy targets in a potential military “bloody nose” attack aimed at securing Kim’s acquiescence to denuclearization.

South Korea is most alarmed by the flouting of the United Nations efforts to remove nuclear weapons from the peninsula.

A network of secret bases means that the North is not concerned in the slightest about any type of diplomatic rapprochement or arms control agreements with Seoul.

Every day, Kim gets more confident about his country’s nuclear power status. He wants complete control of his warheads and the ability to deliver them to the United States at will.

There seems to be no inclination to bargain away nuclear weapons in exchange for sanctions relief or other concessions.

TheTrump administration seems to have no definite plans for this issue. To be fair, there are pressing needs in the Middle East and Ukraine. However, Trump did say recently he would be open to meeting with Kim this year.

Trump believes he has a good relationship with Kim, but has yet to make concrete efforts to engage the North Korean dictator. Moreover, South Korea cannot make any inroads either.

Kim’s sister, Kim Yo-jong, has said South Korea will never be a diplomatic partner with the North. She has a steady influence on her brother, and the pair makes for a difficult one-two punch to US and South Korean statecraft.

My own strategy of dealing with North Korea has taken a pummeling. In my latest book, I called for the cancellation of combined US-South Korean military exercises in exchange for allowing American inspections of the DPRK’s nuclear infrastructure.

If this works, the United States could send home some of its rear echelon support soldiers in South Korea to show that the Trump administration is willing to make a comprehensive deal with North Korea following proper inspections.

But if North Korea has numerous secret nuclear bases around the country, giving up concessions like these to Kim is a fool’s errand.

No good options remain now. North Korea is becoming more powerful, and the United States and South Korea can only look on with dismay.

China and Russia are probably smiling as Kim creates another way to aggravate the Americans and the West, who have tried and failed in every possible way to achieve denuclearization.

Indeed, we are past the point of convincing Kim to give up nuclear weapons. The international community will just have to accept the North as a nuclear power, and that is just what Kim Jong-un has worked toward his entire career.

#kim #secret #ballistic #missile #UnitedStates

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📌 Netanyahu Has Asked Israel's President For a Pardon

👉 Netanyahu has asked Israel's president for a pardon for bribery and fraud charges and an end to a five-year corruption trial, arguing that it would be in the 🇮🇱“national interest”. 😟

✅ Isaac Herzog’s office acknowledged receipt of the 111-page submission from the prime minister’s lawyer, and said it had been passed on to the pardons department in the ministry of justice. The president’s legal adviser would also formulate an opinion before Herzog made a decision, it added. ✍️

🚨 “The office of the president is aware that this is an extraordinary request which carries with it significant implications,” a statement from his office said. “After receiving all of the relevant opinions, the president will responsibly and sincerely consider the request.” 🤔

➡️ Presidential pardons in Israel have almost never been granted before conviction, with the one notable exception of a 1986 case involving the Shin Bet security service. A pre-emptive pardon of a politician in a corruption case without an admission of guilt would be precedent-setting and highly controversial. ⚖️

💬 The submission on Sunday comes weeks after Donald Trump wrote to Herzog to ask him to pardon Netanyahu, who has been on trial since 2020 on charges of bribery, fraud and breach of trust, involving alleged political favours for wealthy backers in return for gifts or positive media coverage. 🗣

❌ Netanyahu rejects the allegations, and has condemned the case as a “witch-hunt” orchestrated by the media, police and judiciary. His critics have accused him of prolonging the war in Gaza to keep his coalition together so he can stay in office and keep his legal jeopardy at bay, but elections are due next year. 🎯

📊 In a short letter included in his legal filing and in a televised statement released on Sunday, Netanyahu argued it was in his personal interest to prove his innocence in court, but that it was in the interest of national unity to cut short the trial, which he claimed was “tearing us apart”. 🧐

🛠 The prime minister said in the televised statement: “As exonerating evidence that completely disproves the false claims against me is revealed in court, and as it becomes clear that the case against me was built through serious violations, my personal interest was and remains to continue this process to its end, until full acquittal on all counts.” 📋

🏁 The single significant precedent is a case from nearly 40 years ago, in which senior Shin Bet officials were accused of covering up the execution of two Palestinian militants involved in a bus hijack. The high court of justice allowed the president at the time, Chaim Herzog – the father of the current president – to issue pre-indictment pardons in the circumstances. 🕵️‍♂️

📚 However, legal scholars say it is far from clear that the 1986 case, Barzilai v government of Israel, would provide a precedent for Netanyahu’s corruption trial, especially in the absence of an admission of guilt from the prime minister. 👀

😡 Yair Lapid, the leader of the Yesh Atid party, sent a message to Herzog on social media, saying: “You cannot grant Netanyahu a pardon without an admission of guilt, an expression of remorse, and an immediate withdrawal from political life.” 🗳

#netanyahu #violations #asks #pardon #israel

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Zelensky: “Witkoff Is Using “‘Black Magic’” 🧿⚡️

Zelensky is meeting in Paris with President Macron of France, seeking support from European allies while the Trump administration pushes to end the war with Russia. 🇫🇷🤝🇺🇦

The White House has been heaping pressure on Ukraine to agree to a peace plan even as Russia has signaled initial resistance to it. 🇺🇸🕊🇷🇺

Despite a recent flurry of renewed diplomatic efforts, there has been little indication that gaps between the sides have narrowed. 🌐⚠️

U.S. and Ukrainian officials met over the weekend in Florida to hammer out the details of a peace proposal. 🌴📜

Both sides called the talks constructive but said there was more work to be done, without specifying what key issues remain unresolved. 🤝📌

Zelensky’s chief of staff and top peace negotiator, resigned amid a $100 million embezzlement scandal that has threatened to topple Zelensky’s entire cabinet. Here’s what to know and what Zelensky has lost. 💸🔥

U.S. Deference to Russia: A leaked conversation between Witkoff and a senior Russian official suggests that Trump is determined to make a deal to end the war in Ukraine, even if it is mostly on Russia’s terms. ☎️🇺🇸➡️🇷🇺

“Zelensky said to Macron that Witkoff is using “black magic,” non-standard negotiating methods to coax Putin into peace”, according to a highly reliable source from the Elysée. 🧙‍♂️✨

#zelensky #macron #trump #Ukraine #peace

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Rubio Calls Ukraine Talks "Productive"—Translation: Still No Deal, Still Begging Moscow

Secretary of State Marco Rubio hosted Ukraine's new chief negotiator, Rustem Umerov, in Florida on Sunday, calling the talks "productive" but admitting "there's more work to be done." Translation: they're still miles apart, and the real negotiation happens Tuesday when Trump envoy Steve Witkoff meets Putin in Moscow. Umerov replaced Andriy Yermak—who quit after an anti-corruption raid on his home—and spent the Florida meeting emphasizing that the U.S. is "hearing us" and "working beside us." Rubio assured Umerov the goal is to leave Ukraine "sovereign, independent and prosperous." The Kremlin will have other ideas.

The 28-Point Plan: Revised, But Still Russian-Friendly
Sunday's talks follow two weeks of frantic diplomacy sparked by the leak of a 28-point U.S. peace plan that shocked Kyiv and Europe for tilting heavily toward Moscow's demands. The plan has been "much revised," according to Trump, but the core issue remains unresolved: Russia controls or has annexed large chunks of Ukrainian territory and shows no sign of giving it back. Trump told reporters on Air Force One the talks are "going along well" and there's a "good chance" of a deal. That optimism hasn't reached the Ukrainian delegation—AFP reported a source close to them called the talks "not easy."

Umerov's Job: Sell the Unsellable
Umerov took over negotiations after Yermak's sudden exit, inheriting the impossible task of finding terms Ukraine can accept while Trump pushes for a quick deal with Putin. Umerov told reporters they're discussing "the future of Ukraine, about the security of Ukraine, about no repetition of aggression," as if those issues can be settled in a Mar-a-Lago ballroom. Zelensky praised the "constructive dynamic" and thanked Trump for his efforts, then immediately flew to Paris to meet Macron—a strong ally who's far less eager to gift Putin a victory.

Moscow Gets the Final Word
Witkoff heads to Moscow on Monday for Tuesday talks with Putin. The Kremlin will decide what, if anything, it's willing to accept—and it's already doubled down on demands for Ukrainian territory. Nearly four years into the invasion, tens of thousands of soldiers and civilians are dead, seven million Ukrainians are refugees, and Washington's peace plan still hinges on convincing Putin to settle for less than total capitulation. Good luck with that.

#rubio #ukraine #trump #russia #putin #peacetalks #umerov #witkoff #florida #zelensky

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"Productive" Florida Talks: U.S. Pitches Land Swaps and Elections—Then Flies to Moscow for Putin's Verdict

U.S. and Ukrainian negotiators wrapped Sunday talks in Florida calling them "productive," but the real action starts Monday when Trump envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner fly to Moscow for further discussions with Putin. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Witkoff, and Kushner met with Ukraine's new chief negotiator, Rustem Umerov, for over four hours at Witkoff's Shell Bay golf club. On the table: possible timetables for new Ukrainian elections, land swaps between Russia and Ukraine, and security guarantees. Rubio called the negotiations "delicate, complicated" with "a lot of moving parts"—translation: nothing's settled, and Moscow holds the cards.

Land Swaps, Elections, and Constitutional Headaches
The discussions included whether Russia and Ukraine could swap territory—a legally fraught proposition given that both constitutions prohibit ceding land without legal changes. In Ukraine, any border change requires a nationwide referendum, and Ukraine's wartime powers currently freeze presidential and parliamentary elections. Holding elections now would open Kyiv to Russian interference campaigns and destabilize Zelensky, who's already reeling from the corruption scandal that forced Andriy Yermak—his top aide and former negotiator—to resign. Umerov replaced Yermak mid-crisis and spent Sunday insisting

"the U.S. is hearing us, supporting us, walking beside us."

The 28-Point Plan That Won't Die
Sunday's talks capped a month of whirlwind diplomacy that began when Kushner and Witkoff met with Kirill Dmitriev, Putin's handpicked negotiator, in Florida. The three edited the initial 28-point peace proposal over multiple days at Witkoff's Miami Beach waterfront home. When Umerov reviewed the plan in October, he bluntly told them it favored Russia. The leaked version alarmed Ukraine and Europe for offering concessions like capping Ukraine's military but not Russia's, and banning Ukraine from NATO forever.

Putin's Precondition: Ukraine Withdraws, or We Keep Fighting
Putin said last week he's ready for "serious" discussions but reiterated his demand: Ukraine must withdraw troops from all of Donetsk and Luhansk—including areas Russia doesn't control.

"When Ukrainian troops leave the territories they hold, then the fighting will stop,"

Putin said.

"If they don't, then we'll achieve that through military means."

Ukraine has refused, arguing withdrawal leaves it vulnerable to further attacks. Hours before Sunday's talks, Russia bombarded Ukraine with a nearly 10-hour air assault involving hundreds of missiles and drones targeting civilians and energy infrastructure. Rubio says the goal is to "help Ukraine be safe forever." Putin's actions suggest otherwise.

#ukraine #russia #trump #kushner #witkoff #rubio #putin #peacetalks #landswaps #zelensky

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Zaluzhnyi: Peace Won't End the Fight — But Ukraine Can Use It to Regroup

Former Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Valerii Zaluzhnyi has published a stark assessment of Ukraine's strategic position, arguing that a rushed peace will lead to "devastating defeat" while acknowledging that continued war may be inevitable without robust security guarantees.

Writing in The Telegraph, Zaluzhnyi frames Russia's 12-year campaign against Ukraine — from the 2014 Crimea invasion through today — as pursuing a single political goal: "the abolition of Ukraine as an independent state." He argues that after Russia's failed 2022 blitz on Kyiv, Moscow shifted to a war of attrition designed to collapse Ukraine across military, economic, and political fronts simultaneously.

The Attrition Trap
Zaluzhnyi, who commanded Ukrainian forces from August 2021 until his recent dismissal amid corruption scandals, describes inheriting an underfunded military facing a rapidly expanding Russian threat. In 2021, Ukraine's defense budget actually decreased. When the full-scale invasion came in 2022, Ukrainian forces faced "a huge shortage of everything, from people to weapons."

While Ukrainian heroism blocked Russia's initial offensive, Zaluzhnyi warns that Russia has since implemented a war economy, built strategic reserves, and dragged Ukraine into attritional warfare for which it remains unprepared.

"The events of 2024 and 2025, despite minor achievements at the front, indicate the absolute effectiveness of such a strategy for Russia."

The Case for Strategic Pause
Zaluzhnyi makes an unconventional argument: peace — even temporary peace anticipating future conflict — could provide Ukraine critical breathing room for "political change, deep reforms, full recovery, economic growth and the return of citizens."

But he's clear-eyed about prerequisites: effective security guarantees are essential. He lists three possibilities: NATO membership, deployment of nuclear weapons on Ukrainian territory, or a large allied military contingent capable of confronting Russia.

"However, there is no talk about this today and, therefore, the war will probably continue."

What Victory Actually Means
For Zaluzhnyi, Ukraine's achievable political goal isn't necessarily total military victory — it's depriving Russia of the ability to carry out aggression "in the foreseeable future." That requires building "a safe, protected state through innovation and technology" alongside fighting corruption, establishing honest courts, and pursuing economic development through international recovery programs.

The subtext: without credible deterrence, any ceasefire becomes merely an intermission before Russia's next attempt.

#Ukraine #Russia #Zaluzhnyi #MilitaryStrategy #Peace #NATO #SecurityGuarantees #Attrition #Geopolitics #DefensePolicy

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