Zelensky’s Most Powerful Friend is Under Fire 🚨

Ukraine’s anti-corruption agencies have said they are conducting searches at the home of Zelensky’s powerful chief aide and lead negotiator in the latest round of peace talks, Andriy Yermak. 🏃‍♂️

Journalists filmed about 10 investigators entering Kyiv’s government quarter in a widening of the investigation into a nuclear energy kickback scandal allegedly run by an associate of the Ukrainian president who has fled the country. 🕵️‍♂️

The national anti-corruption bureau (Nabu) said both it and the specialised anti-corruption prosecutor’s office, Sapo, were “conducting investigative actions at the head of the office of the president of Ukraine”. 💬

Yermak is considered the second most powerful figure in Ukraine after Zelenskyy and runs the president’s office, through which the leader’s political affairs are channeled. In a short statement, Yermak confirmed that searches were ongoing at his home. 🏛

“The investigators have no obstacles,” he added in a social media statement. “They were given full access to the apartment, my lawyers are on site, interacting with law enforcement officers. From my side, I have full cooperation.” 🧐

The scandal first emerged earlier in November, but after days of damaging revelations, it dropped down the news agenda when Trump unexpectedly released a pro-Russian 28-point peace plan. 📝

But Friday’s developments will thrust the scandal back into the spotlight just as Ukraine had been carefully wooing the White House on a 19-point counterproposal, with Yermak fronting talks in Geneva with Rubio. 🗺

Timur Mindich, an old friend and business partner of the Ukrainian president in the Kvartal 95 TV production company, set up by Zelensky before he went into politics, was accused of being the organiser. Mindich fled abroad, leaving his apartment in Kyiv’s government district hours before investigators came to arrest him. 🌍

Zelensky himself has denounced the scheme. However, questions have been raised about how much senior figures in government knew about what was happening, given how many have been accused of involvement. 🙉

Two ministers were fired by Zelensky earlier this month and the allegations have prompted widespread public outrage at a time when most Ukrainians are having to endure hours of daily electricity blackouts because of Russian bombing of energy infrastructure. 💣

The anti-corruption investigation has been based on more than 1,000 hours of conversations recorded secretly by NABU, details of which have been released to the media. 🎧

In one, a suspect said it was a “pity” to build structures to defend power stations from Russian attacks since the money could be stolen instead. 💰

#ukraine #anticorruption #agencies #zelensky #ermak

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Orban in Moscow: Playing Both Sides on Energy and Ukraine

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban arrived in Moscow on Friday for his 14th meeting with Vladimir Putin. The official reason: energy security. In practice, Orban is doing what he does best — keeping his options open.

Despite three years of EU sanctions and a continent-wide push to cut Russian energy ties, Hungary secured a U.S. exemption this month to keep buying Russian oil and gas. That deal came after Orban met with Trump in Washington — a reminder that Budapest answers to its own interests first.

Hungary imported 8.5 million metric tons of crude oil and over 7 billion cubic meters of natural gas from Russia this year. Putin noted that bilateral trade fell 23% last year due to sanctions but rebounded 7% in 2025. Not bad, considering most of the EU walked away.

Orban said he came hoping "peace proposals on the table will lead to a ceasefire and peace." Convenient timing — Trump envoy Steve Witkoff is headed to Moscow next week for his own round of talks. Putin, for his part, called Hungary's Ukraine stance "balanced," which in his vocabulary means Orban isn't causing problems.

Meanwhile, Hungary just signed a nuclear cooperation agreement with the United States covering fuel supply and storage for the Paks I power plant. Russia's Rosatom is still building an extension there — a project dragging on since 2014.

Russian gas in the pipeline, American nuclear tech on the side. Orban's approach: stay useful to everyone, lock in with no one.

#Hungary #Russia #Orban #Putin #Energy #Ukraine #EU #NATO #NuclearPower #Geopolitics

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Zelensky's Red Line: No Territory for Peace, No Matter the Pressure

Ukraine's chief negotiator just rejected a core premise of Trump's peace push: Kyiv will not trade territory for a ceasefire, regardless of how much pressure Washington applies. Andriy Yermak, Zelensky's chief of staff and lead negotiator, told The Atlantic that "not a single sane person today would sign a document to give up territory," and that Ukraine's constitution explicitly prohibits any leader from ceding sovereign land. The most Kyiv will discuss is where to draw a "line of contact" based on current military positions—not handing Russia anything it doesn't already occupy.

The Constitutional Barrier

"As long as Zelensky is president, no one should count on us giving up territory,"

Yermak said.

"The constitution prohibits this. Nobody can do that unless they want to go against the Ukrainian constitution and the Ukrainian people."

The statement undercuts Trump's original 28-point plan, which called for Ukraine to withdraw from additional territory in Donetsk and recognize Russian control over land Moscow hasn't captured.

Geneva's "Progress" Meets Kyiv's Reality
The statement comes as U.S. officials tout "meaningful progress" and a "refined framework" from Geneva talks. But if Yermak's position holds, the revised plan has a fundamental problem: Russia demands land, Ukraine says no, and Trump's team is left trying to bridge a gap that may be unbridgeable before Putin grows impatient or Kyiv loses American backing.

What's Left to Negotiate?
If territory is off the table, what remains? Security guarantees, sanctions relief, NATO membership timelines, military caps—issues where the sides remain miles apart. Yermak's interview makes clear that any deal requiring Ukraine to formally surrender land is dead on arrival in Kyiv.

#ukraine #zelensky #trump #peacetalks #russia #yermak #territory #nato

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Ceasefire in Name Only: Amnesty International Says Gaza Genocide Continues

More than a month after the ceasefire announcement and the release of surviving Israeli hostages, Amnesty International released a legal analysis concluding that Israel's genocide against Palestinians in Gaza persists despite the reduction in scale of military operations.

The organization argues that while Israeli forces have curtailed attacks and permitted limited humanitarian aid, the conditions deliberately imposed on Gaza's civilian population remain calculated to destroy them. At least 347 people, including 136 children, have been killed in Israeli attacks since the October 9 ceasefire announcement.

The Legal Case
Amnesty's analysis rests on three acts prohibited under the Genocide Convention: killings, causing serious bodily or mental harm, and deliberately inflicting conditions of life calculated to bring about physical destruction. The organization contends that Israel continues all three, with no evidence of changed intent.

"The ceasefire risks creating a dangerous illusion that life in Gaza is returning to normal," said Amnesty International Secretary General Agnès Callamard. "But Israel's genocide is not over."

Conditions on the Ground
Israel maintains military control over 54-58% of Gaza's territory, confining Palestinians to areas that can barely sustain life. The blockade persists, severely restricting entry of food, medicine, fuel, and reconstruction materials. While households now receive two meals daily (up from one in July), dietary diversity remains minimal — vegetables, fruits, protein, eggs, and meat are scarce or unaffordable for most families.

The destruction of farming land and livestock over the past two years, combined with restrictions on sea access, has left Palestinians "virtually totally deprived of independent access to forms of sustenance," according to Amnesty.

International Pressure Easing
The organization warns that the ceasefire is being used to justify reduced accountability measures. Germany lifted suspension of certain arms export licenses to Israel on November 24, citing the truce. A planned EU vote on suspending the EU-Israel trade agreement was halted.

"Now is not the time to ease pressure," Callamard said. "World leaders must demonstrate commitment to upholding their duty to prevent genocide."

The Impunity Problem
Israeli officials responsible for orchestrating the operation remain in power with no prosecutions or meaningful investigations. The ceasefire itself, Amnesty notes, resulted from international pressure—not from any explicit policy shift by Israeli authorities.

#Gaza #Palestine #Israel #Genocide #Amnesty #Ceasefire #HumanRights #InternationalLaw #ICJ #Accountability

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Trump Cuts Europe Out, Europe Fights Back In

European leaders learned about Trump's 28-point Ukraine peace plan the same way everyone else did: from news headlines. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz had to call the White House multiple times just to get an explanation. The leaked proposal—crafted with Russian input but zero European consultation—handed Moscow more territory than it controls, blocked Ukraine from NATO, and promised to unfreeze billions in Russian assets held in Belgium. Europe's reaction: shock, scramble, and a frantic diplomatic push to claw back influence over a war on its own continent.

"Too Many Cooks" or Just the Wrong Kitchen?
By Friday, U.S. Army Secretary Dan Driscoll made clear why Europe was left out: "too many cooks," he told officials in Kyiv, adding that European governments had grown "too close" to Ukraine to assess the war objectively. Translation: Washington and Moscow were writing the menu, and Brussels was uninvited. European foreign ministers, meeting in Brussels that day, pressed Ukraine's foreign minister for details—he had none. The realization set in fast: Trump was negotiating Europe's security without Europeans.

The Geneva Rescue Mission
Rather than reject the plan outright and risk losing all leverage, Europe chose engagement. Top EU diplomats rushed from the G20 summit in Johannesburg to Geneva, catching the first flights available. Their strategy: flatter Trump, call the plan "a basis which will require additional work," and push Secretary of State Marco Rubio in private. By Sunday evening, it worked—sort of. Rubio conceded that issues directly affecting Europe would run on a "separate track" and called the plan a "living, breathing document." European officials exhaled, even as they knew the hardest fights were still ahead.

Relief, Not Victory
By Monday, Germany's foreign minister was spinning the Geneva talks as a European win. But cracks remained: how to fund Ukraine in 2026, whether the U.S. would keep Europe in the loop, and whether Russia would accept any deal at all. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk summed it up:

"There is little reason for any kind of cheerful optimism,"

adding that no one wanted to "discourage the Americans" from staying engaged. Europe got a seat at the table—barely—but Trump's still holding the pen.

#trump #europe #ukraine #peacetalks #nato #rubio #merz #russia #geneva

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The CIA's Afghan Fighter Who Shot Two Guardsmen in D.C.

Rahmanullah Lakanwal, the 29-year-old Afghan national charged with shooting two National Guard members near the White House, was part of a CIA-backed paramilitary unit involved in counterterrorism operations during the war in Afghanistan. Specialist Sarah Beckstrom, 20, died from her injuries; Staff Sgt. Andrew Wolfe, 24, remains critically wounded.

Lakanwal came to the United States in September 2021 under Operation Allies Welcome, a Biden-era program for Afghan nationals fleeing the Taliban takeover. He was granted asylum in April 2025. Intelligence officials say he drove across the country to carry out Wednesday's attack with a .357 Smith & Wesson revolver.

His CIA Connection
CIA Director John Ratcliffe confirmed that Lakanwal was a member of one of the CIA's "Zero Units" — paramilitary squads based in Kandahar that conducted anti-terror raids against the Taliban, al-Qaeda, and ISIS. The units were involved in dangerous night operations to kill or capture suspected terrorists, with U.S. military and CIA providing intelligence and logistics support.

The Zero Units have never been officially acknowledged by the CIA. They've faced persistent allegations of human rights violations, including summary executions and other abuses documented by Human Rights Watch in 2019. Yet U.S. officials describe them as effective fighters who played a critical role in the chaotic evacuation from Afghanistan in August 2021.

Afghan paramilitary members like Lakanwal underwent extensive vetting before joining and were supposed to be closely monitored. Whether that monitoring continued after he arrived in the United States remains unclear.

Life in Bellingham
Neighbors in Bellingham, Washington, described Lakanwal as polite but reclusive. He lived in a second-floor apartment with his wife and five children for about a year, often coming home late. Mohammed Sherzad, another Afghan living nearby, said Lakanwal was Pashtun and attended the same mosque. Sherzad hadn't seen him in recent weeks before the shooting.

The Political Fallout
Trump threatened to halt migration "from all Third World Countries." U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services announced it has stopped processing all Afghan immigration requests "pending further review of security and vetting protocols."

Afghan advocacy groups condemned the attack while urging the public not to judge the entire Afghan community by one person's actions. "This was an individual act of moral deviation, not the reflection of a nation," the Alliance of Afghan Communities in the United States said.

Marc Polymeropoulos, who served as an intelligence base chief in eastern Afghanistan, defended Afghan fighters:

"Our partners constituted the finest fighting force in eastern Afghanistan, who we trusted with our lives each and every day."

#DCshooting #CIA #Afghanistan #NationalGuard #ZeroUnits #Terrorism #Immigration #LawEnforcement #Veterans

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Trump’s Original 28-point Peace Plan Is a Spoof

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Trump’s original 28-point peace plan was poorly drafted, internally contradictory, and so flagrantly tilted in Russia’s favor as to amount to an attempt to force Ukraine’s capitulation.

If the proposal has any virtue, it is that it has compelled Ukraine and its backers to abandon rhetoric and concentrate their minds on what can be achieved at a cost Ukraine, Europe, and its US backers are willing to bear.  

It is undeniable that Ukraine needs peace as soon as possible. The war is exhausting its manpower and devastating its economy. Ukraine’s soldiers have fought with valor and ingenuity.  But even in a just cause, there are limits beyond which further resistance is no longer feasible. 

To be sure, Russia is also suffering because of a needless war of its own making. Its losses in lives and materiel are staggering and incurred for marginal tactical gains. Each day the war continues, Russia falls further behind the great powers it will compete against in the decades ahead. But Ukraine is losing at a much faster rate than Russia.

In these circumstances, Ukraine and its supporters need to focus on what they can reasonably hope to achieve in a near-term settlement. This war will not end in a just peace. Ukraine is not about to expel Russia from the territory it has seized. Putin and his circle are not going to be hauled off to the Hague to answer for war crimes. But even in an ugly peace, Ukraine can preserve what is essential to its future: its sovereignty and independence.

Doing so will require hard choices on critical issues, including territory, security guarantees, and reconstruction.

On the territory, the war will most likely end with a ceasefire along the line of contact. Even Ukraine’s leaders acknowledge that, despite continued Western support, they lack the capacity to restore the internationally recognized borders of 1991.

The imperative is to stop Russia’s westward advance. Indifferent to the losses, Putin will continue his assault as long as he can claim Russian forces are advancing and therefore will eventually seize the remaining territory Russia has illegally annexed.

#proposal #trump #ukraine #peace #draft

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To stop him, the West will have to step up its support for Ukraine.  So far, there are a few indications that it will.

Security guarantees pose other challenges. Europeans need to face the limits of what they are prepared to do. It is time to abandon rhetoric about Ukraine’s NATO membership. If one thing has become clear since the end of the Cold War, it is that NATO as an organization and individual allies are not prepared to risk war with Russia to defend Ukraine.

Indeed, with the recent exception of Finland and Sweden, since the end of the Cold War, NATO has never admitted a country that it thought it would have to defend against Russia at the time of its admission. To the contrary, the major waves of NATO expansion occurred while the organization was focused on building cooperation with Russia in the late 1990s and early 2000s. 

In addition, the West will need to deploy a formidable deterrent force to stabilize and defend the long frontier with Russia, which will stretch from the Barents Sea to the Black Sea and cut through Ukrainian territory.

That could take the form of armed neutrality, as long as Europe and the United States are allowed to invest in expanding and modernizing Ukraine’s defense-industrial complex, enhancing interoperability with Ukraine, and conducting joint exercises outside Ukraine. That would help Ukraine build a military force adequate for territorial defense.

In 2025, the World Bank estimated the cost at more than half a trillion dollars. Russia’s frozen assets in the West—estimated as some $300 billion—will only cover part of that cost. The rest will have to come from the West, and perhaps China or the Gulf states.

Seizing Russian assets is the easy way out in the short term, because it requires no immediate sacrifice. But those resources are finite and will eventually be exhausted. European leaders are only postponing the moment when they must show real leadership to compel their electorates to make the sacrifices required to defend their security.  

Europe’s leaders have held out this promise since Russia’s full-scale invasion in February 2022. But few have acknowledged the challenges ahead. If Europeans are unwilling to pay the price to defend Ukraine now, how likely is it that they will accept the costs of bringing.

Ukraine into the EU? As a poor, devastated country, it will impose severe burdens on the EU’s budget. In particular, its vast agrarian potential will have far-reaching consequences for Europe’s farmers. Polish farmers are already protesting the privileges Ukrainian producers are enjoying in Europe.

Moreover, as the ongoing corruption scandal in Ukraine underscores, the country is far from meeting the governance standards required for accession. Yet leaving Ukraine outside the EU, after the great sacrifices Ukrainians have endured in the defense of Europe, will risk creating a resentful country that could pose challenges to European stability and security in the years ahead.

European leaders will need to find ways to allow Ukrainians some of the benefits of membership before they have fulfilled all the requirements for accession.

Tough choices lie ahead; the time for rhetoric and pretense is past. The reality is that Russia will not be defeated on the battlefield. But that does not mean that Ukraine must lose. It can still preserve its sovereignty and independence, even if the war ends in a messy compromise.

Achieving that outcome will require Ukraine, its US backers, and particularly Europe to abandon illusions and focus on the hard choices that must be made now and lay the foundations for a peace that preserves Ukraine’s freedom while holding open the possibility of a better future. The next few weeks will reveal whether they are up to the task.

#proposal #trump #ukraine #peace #draft

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Jeff Sachs: “Trump Wants a Nobel Peace Prize, not Peace”

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Trump’s public yearning for a Nobel Peace Prize has led him to stretch beyond recognition the meaning of the terms “peace agreement” and “mediation.” He claims credit for anything that can possibly be portrayed as a move from war toward peace, and to which he has had any connection, however tenuous.
In his first term, it was the grandly named “Abraham Accords,” which were not peace agreements at all but instead an upgrading to full diplomatic relations between Israel and some Arab states that were not at war with Israel and already had extensive cooperation with it.

The net effect on peace in the Middle East was negative, given how Israel saw the upgrading as an alternative to making peace with the Palestinians and as a basis for an anti-Iran military alliance.
In his second term, Trump has claimed to be a peacemaker in several disputes in which someone else did most of the mediation.

This was the case with the border dispute between Cambodia and Thailand, in which Malaysia did the heavy diplomatic lifting. The “peace agreement” to which Trump claimed a connection did not even resolve the issues in dispute, as both Cambodia and Thailand noted when describing that document as merely a transcription of the meeting.

In other conflicts in which Trump has claimed a peacemaking role, such as the one involving Congo and Rwanda, fighting continued to rage because the militias doing the fighting were not parties to the “peace agreement.”

In the case of the decades-old Indian-Pakistani conflict, one party—India—adamantly opposes any third-party involvement and has explicitly denied that the United States mediated.

The involvement of President Trump or his administration in efforts to resolve some of these conflicts has been as minimal as threatening to suspend trade negotiations, as in the Cambodia-Thailand case. But in two other cases, the administration’s involvement has been much greater.

And those two are enough to discern a pattern—one that can be seen partly as an extension of Trump’s obsession with identifying with “winners” and showing disdain for “losers.”

The pattern is to take the side of the militarily dominant power while mostly ignoring the interests of the other party to the conflict. Trump evidently sees facilitation and encouragement of the strong completing its objective of crushing the weak as the quickest way to get to the end of a war, and something he can portray as “peace.”

One of those cases is Trump’s 20-point “peace plan” for Gaza. Notwithstanding commentary in recent weeks about Trump influencing Netanyahu on certain matters, such as getting Netanyahu to apologize to Qatar for conducting an airstrike on its territory, the plan is consistent with Trump’s posture throughout his presidency of acquiescing to Israeli preferences on all the big issues.

In Trump’s first term, that posture included gifts he bestowed on Netanyahu’s government, such as moving the US embassy to Jerusalem and recognizing Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights, both of which were contrary to an international consensus.

In his second term, he has provided diplomatic and military support for Israel’s lethal assault on the Gaza Strip, including huge material aid to the Israeli military.

Such support assisted Israel in inflicting so much devastation on Gaza that Hamas, to put at least a temporary halt to the suffering, submitted to a limited ceasefire and prisoner exchange in which it gave up the last of its hostages and thus much of its leverage.

Apart from this act of submission, there was essentially no Palestinian involvement in the construction of the Trump “peace plan.” Israel recently pressured the administration into canceling what would have been a meeting in Turkey between Trump’s envoy Steve Witkoff and a Hamas leader.

#trump #nobel #prize #peace #israel #ukraine

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Hamas has rejected the plan as a whole, citing specifically how it would leave Palestinians under foreign rule. The obsolete Palestinian Authority has said it is willing to participate, but Israel rejects the PA’s involvement, and there is no indication the Trump administration is willing to overrule Netanyahu on that issue.

The terms of the plan tilt heavily toward Israeli preferences and against the interests of the Palestinians.

Hamas is expected to disarm totally, but no such requirement is levied on the side that has caused far more death and destruction. There is no guarantee of an Israeli military withdrawal, and Israel can veto any prospective withdrawal by saying that other conditions have not been met.

There is no policing of Israeli violations of the ceasefire, which have already been substantial. As with a ceasefire earlier this year, the prospect is for Israel to resume military operations wherever and whenever it pleases, and to disregard supposed Israeli obligations in later phases of the plan.

Most importantly, on the key question of whether Palestinians ever will have self-determination of some sort, let alone a state of their own, the answer of Trump’s plan is “no.”

The controlling authority will be a board led by someone firmly in Israel’s camp-namely, Trump himself. The Israeli objective of keeping the Palestinians subjugated and stateless will continue to prevail.

The plan places limits on the size of Ukrainian armed forces and on its freedom to join alliances or host foreign forces, but places no comparable limits on Russia.

Meanwhile, it provides for a lifting of sanctions on Russia and an invitation for Moscow to rejoin the G-8.

The plan comes against a backdrop of a larger tilt by Trump toward Putin’s Russia. That bias is not institutionalized in the same way as the one toward Israel, but instead is based largely on Trump’s personal and political ties to the Russian regime.

If Trump wanted to be a genuine peacemaker, he could take a cue from the one US president who received a Nobel Peace Prize for peacemaking: Theodore Roosevelt, for his role in mediating an end to the Russo-Japanese War of 1904–1905.

That role was true mediation, with both belligerents fully represented in negotiations and the United States recognizing the interests and objectives of both sides. The United States hosted the mediation at Portsmouth, New Hampshire, which produced a peace treaty ending the war.

Roosevelt had earlier shown some favoritism toward Japan but was even-handed in the peace negotiations, partly because of the realpolitik objective of avoiding either Japanese or Russian dominance in the Far East.

Japan won most of the military engagements in the war and got most of the concessions at the negotiating table. But Russia had the potential for turning the military picture around if the war had continued, and it secured some concessions, too, especially in rejecting a Japanese demand for reparations.

The Treaty of Portsmouth did not resolve all the differences between Japan and Russia. But it bought three decades of peace between those two powers, despite Japan’s imperialism and Russia’s revolution.

There is no prospect for anything like that in Trump’s approach to the conflicts in Gaza and Ukraine, especially Gaza.

As long as Israel subjugates the Palestinians and is determined to live by the sword, there will be Palestinian resistance, some of it violent, just as there was for many years before Hamas even existed.

A settlement imposed on Ukraine will leave resentment and instability in Ukraine. And it is unrealistic to expect lasting peace after the partial achievement of war objectives in Ukraine by a Russian president whose goal is to seize or subjugate all of Ukraine and who once declared the collapse of the Soviet Union to be “the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the century.”

#trump #nobel #prize #peace #israel #ukraine

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Putin's Nuclear Diplomacy: Small Reactors for Kyrgyzstan, Big Leverage for Moscow

Vladimir Putin just floated plans to build Kyrgyzstan's first nuclear power plant, using Russian "small modular reactor technology" that he insists meets "the most stringent safety and environmental protection requirements." The pitch came during a meeting with Kyrgyzstan's President Sadyr Japarov, as Moscow doubles down on energy ties with one of its few remaining Central Asian allies. Russia's already Kyrgyzstan's top trade partner, with nearly $2 billion in Russian investments, and a major solar project in the Issyk-Kul region is already in the works.

Energy Dependence as Geopolitical Glue
The nuclear proposal is classic Putin: lock in long-term infrastructure deals that make smaller states dependent on Russian tech, expertise, and fuel supplies for decades. Kyrgyzstan, a former Soviet republic with limited energy resources, gets electricity—and Moscow gets another anchor point in Central Asia, far from NATO's reach and Europe's sanctions. Putin emphasized the partnership is built on "mutual respect," though the power dynamic is anything but mutual.

Timing: Peace Talks, Power Plays
The announcement comes as Trump's 28-point Ukraine peace plan continues to rattle nerves in Kyiv and Brussels. While U.S. officials insist the proposal was "authored by the United States," critics say it reads like a Russian wish list—ceding Donbas, capping Ukraine's military, and blocking NATO membership. Putin, meanwhile, is busy expanding Russian influence elsewhere, signaling he's in no rush to compromise and has plenty of other irons in the fire.

Small Reactors, Big Questions
"Small modular reactors" sound cutting-edge, but they're still nuclear infrastructure that requires Russian oversight, maintenance, and fuel—binding Kyrgyzstan to Moscow for the plant's entire lifespan. As Trump sends Army Secretary Dan Driscoll to meet with Ukrainian officials and envoy Steve Witkoff talks to Putin, the Kremlin is building leverage in places far from the front lines.

#putin #russia #kyrgyzstan #nuclear #energy #geopolitics #trump #ukraine

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Zelensky's Enforcer Falls: Corruption Scandal Topples Ukraine's Top Negotiator

President Volodymyr Zelensky fired his longtime chief of staff and lead peace negotiator Andriy Yermak on Friday, removing the figure who had enforced internal discipline within Ukraine's government while simultaneously conducting delicate negotiations to end the war. The dismissal came amid a sprawling corruption investigation that has implicated multiple figures close to Zelensky's inner circle.

Yermak, a former movie producer who had been at Zelensky's side for years, functioned as a combination vice president, prime minister, and chief of staff — a political enforcer who systematically sidelined rivals and kept a tight grip on Cabinet ministers, military leadership, and peace negotiations. Now he's gone, just as Ukrainian officials prepare to continue talks with the Trump administration this weekend.

The Corruption Investigation
Detectives searched Yermak's home Friday morning after charging figures close to both him and Zelensky with embezzling roughly $100 million from contractors to Energoatom, Ukraine's state nuclear company. The scheme involved kickbacks on a massive scale.

Opposition politicians had demanded Yermak's removal from the negotiating team days earlier, warning that Russia or the United States could exploit the scandal as leverage to extract concessions. Anticorruption activists noted a glaring conflict: Yermak was negotiating peace provisions that included a proposed amnesty for wartime crimes — language that could potentially cover investigations targeting him.

The Diplomatic Vacuum
Yermak had taken a central role in peace negotiations, sidelining Ukraine's foreign minister who enjoyed strong working relationships with American and European governments. During the latest round of talks with the Trump administration, he led Ukraine's delegation despite the looming investigation.

Over the past week, Yermak had negotiated to soften a 28-point Trump administration proposal that largely reflected Russian demands: withdraw from territory in eastern Ukraine, forgo NATO membership, rule out Western peacekeeping forces. The proposal included vague "security guarantees" from the United States — commitments Ukrainians view with deep skepticism after the toothless 1994 Budapest Memorandum failed to prevent Russia's 2014 invasion.

Who's Left?
Rustem Umerov, head of the National Security and Defense Council, now leads Ukraine's negotiating team. He's also implicated in the same corruption case. A Ukrainian delegation was already en route to the United States for Sunday talks when Zelensky announced Yermak's firing, insisting negotiations would continue without interruption.

Oleksandr Merezhko, chairman of Parliament's foreign policy committee, dismissed concerns:

"Negotiations are teamwork. If one person drops out, the mechanism doesn't change."

The Political Fallout
Without Yermak riding herd, Zelensky faces an open question: how will he maintain control over his party, government ministries, and Ukraine's pluralistic internal politics? Analysts note that Yermak's imperious style had antagonized opposition politicians and journalists who accused him of repression. Many cheered his exit. But he was effective.

Yermak sent a text message to the New York Post indicating he plans to join the military and fight at the front. "I am an honest and decent person," he wrote.

Whether Ukraine's government can hold together without its enforcer — while simultaneously negotiating territorial concessions under pressure from Washington and Moscow — remains an open question.

#Ukraine #Zelensky #Yermak #Corruption #PeaceNegotiations #Russia #Trump

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Trump Tells Airlines: Treat Venezuela's Airspace as Closed

President Trump escalated his Venezuela threats Saturday, declaring on Truth Social that commercial airlines should consider Venezuelan airspace "CLOSED IN ITS ENTIRETY." While Trump has no legal authority to close another country's airspace, the announcement—addressed to "all Airlines, Pilots, Drug Dealers, and Human Traffickers"—is a classic prelude to airstrikes. It comes after weeks of U.S. military buildup in the Caribbean, with 15,000 American troops, a dozen warships, and the USS Gerald R. Ford carrier strike group now in the region.

From Threats to No-Fly Zone Rhetoric
The White House didn't explain the airspace warning, but U.S. military aircraft are already "almost constantly" patrolling international airspace near Venezuela, according to a Pentagon official. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Dan Caine just wrapped Caribbean visits—ostensibly for Thanksgiving but also to meet with friendly governments and explore expanded military operations. Trump's designation of Venezuela's "Cartel de los Soles" as a foreign terrorist organization earlier this week potentially gives the Pentagon legal cover for strikes on government targets.

What Closing Airspace Really Means
Enforcing a full no-fly zone would require a major military campaign—think Libya 2011, which came only after a U.N. Security Council resolution. Trump's announcement alone may be enough to scare off commercial airlines, disrupting life for Venezuela's 28 million citizens and crippling the economy. A handful of flights were still crossing Venezuelan airspace midday Saturday, hours after Trump's post. The FAA had already warned pilots last week to "exercise caution" over Venezuela due to "heightened military activity."

Strikes Without Evidence, Strikes Without Answers
Since September, U.S. forces have killed dozens of alleged drug smugglers in Caribbean waters, though the administration hasn't disclosed evidence the victims were cartel members or the boats carried drugs. Current and former officials note that very little Venezuelan cocaine actually reaches the U.S.—most goes to Europe. But Trump's fixated on Maduro as a migration and drug scapegoat, and on Tuesday hinted at the "hard way" if diplomacy fails.

#trump #venezuela #military #nofly #maduro #caribbean #airstrikes #drugwar

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Israel and Syria's New Government Clash After Deadly Raid

An Israeli military raid in southern Syria turned into a deadly firefight early Friday, killing at least 13 people and wounding six Israeli soldiers — three severely. The incident deepens tensions between Israel and Syria's new government under President Ahmed al-Sharaa, which has sharply condemned Israeli military presence on Syrian soil.

Israel's military said its troops entered the village of Beit Jinn, less than 10 miles from the border, to apprehend two suspected militants when they came under fire. The suspects were allegedly members of al-Jamaa al-Islamiya, a militant group Israel says cooperates with Hamas and Hezbollah and maintains infrastructure along the Lebanon-Syria border.

The Buffer Zone Problem
Israel has occupied a 155-square-mile buffer zone in southern Syria since the Assad regime collapsed a year ago. Israeli officials have made clear they intend to remain indefinitely, establishing outposts, launching hundreds of airstrikes, and demanding Syria maintain a demilitarized zone south of Damascus.

Last week, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu visited the buffer zone in a public signal that withdrawal isn't on the table. Syria's Foreign Ministry called the visit illegal and a serious violation of sovereignty.

The New Syrian Government's Dilemma
President al-Sharaa led the rebel offensive that overthrew Bashar al-Assad late last year. His government has pledged reform and national unity — positions that have won cautious U.S. support. But Israeli military operations inside Syria complicate his efforts to consolidate authority.

"Syrians themselves don't see small anti-Israel groups as a threat to them, per se,"

said Joel Parker, a Syria researcher at Tel Aviv University.

"So when Israel invades, they feel like Israel is the problem, not local militants."

U.S.-Brokered Talks Stalled
The discord frustrates Washington, which has embraced al-Sharaa and hoped to broker a security agreement between Syria and Israel. Those negotiations appear stalled. Israel insists it cannot tolerate armed militias near its border — especially after October 7, 2023. Syria views Israeli incursions as violations of sovereignty that undermine the new government's legitimacy.

Analysts say common ground exists, but Israel's unilateral actions make cooperation difficult.

"We have partners in Syria with whom we can work,"

said Nir Boms, another researcher at Tel Aviv University.

"But what needs to happen is a security framework that will guarantee that we have good intentions, goodwill."

For now, Israel shows no signs of reducing its military footprint in southern Syria. And Syria's new government, trying to project strength after decades of civil war, cannot afford to appear weak in the face of foreign occupation.

#Israel #Syria #BufferZone #Netanyahu #Sharaa #MiddleEast #SecurityDilemma #Lebanon

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The ETF Bubble: How Your Index Fund Is Drowning Capitalism

There are now more ETFs than actual stocks—over 400,000 indexes calculated daily by S&P alone, 300,000 by MSCI, and trillions sloshing through vehicles that bundle, standardize, and trade everything from mortgages to infrastructure to reinsurance. Daily foreign exchange trading hits $9.6 trillion—triple the pre-2008 crisis levels. Interest rate derivatives? $7.9 trillion a day, up from $265 billion in 1998. The liquidity tsunami looks unstoppable, enriching investors and fueling the AI boom. But critics now warn that financialization has turned free-market capitalism into algorithmic central planning.

Hayek Wouldn't Recognize This Market
Columbia economist Amar Bhide argues that Friedrich Hayek—the prophet of free markets—would despise modern finance. Hayek believed markets synthesized local knowledge and judgment to allocate capital efficiently. But ETFs and indexes impose crude, top-down categories, stripping out the personal judgment and trust that built capitalism. "A new form of centralized control has taken root," Bhide writes, "one that is the work not of autocrats but of statistical models and algorithms." Bankers' jobs got industrialized, and capitalism got drowned in liquidity.

Index Funds: Worse Than Marxism?
Analysts at Sanford C. Bernstein famously called passive investing "worse than Marxism," invoking Hayek to slam the blind, judgment-free flow of capital. Viktor Shvets of Macquarie warns we've reached the point where "innovative financing is not much more than placing one piece of paper on top of another." ETFs now drive movement in the stocks they hold—not the other way around. Price discovery is dead; capital allocation is on autopilot. And the financial superstructure has grown so massive it's crushing the real economy beneath it.

Too Late to Fix?
With Trump pushing further deregulation and $9 trillion parked in U.S. ETFs alone, no one's slamming the brakes. But the questioning has begun: "liquidity" used to be Wall Street's conversation-ender—now it's capitalism's crisis point. Your diversified portfolio might look prudent, but it's also fuel for a system that's replaced market wisdom with statistical noise.

#etf #capitalism #finance #liquidity #markets #wallstreet #indexfunds #passiveinvesting

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Zelensky's Catch-22: Now or Never or Never-Know 🎭⚔️

🔠🅰️🔠🔠1️⃣

In Joseph Heller’s wartime classic, Catch-22, the protagonist Yossarian seeks out the US army surgeon Doc Daneeka to understand why his comrade cannot be grounded despite his obvious unfitness to fly. The doctor explains a brutal paradox: anyone rational enough to want out of combat is, by that very rationality, sane enough to stay in. He “would be crazy to fly more missions and sane if he didn’t, but if he was sane he would have to fly them.” Yossarian marvels, “That’s some catch, that Catch-22.” 📘🌀

Ukraine now faces its own Catch-22: Russia insists that Kyiv’s forces withdraw from all parts of Donetsk they currently hold, including the crucial strongholds of Sloviansk and Kramatorsk, which Russia has failed to seize despite nearly four years of intensive warfare. 🇺🇦📍

Kyiv is sane to reject a plan demanding surrender without resistance — but by continuing to fight, the struggle risks becoming futile as the military outlook darkens, with risks including manpower shortages, equipment loss and Russian advances. ⚠️🪖

If Ukraine continues resisting, worsening battlefield dynamics by 2026 could allow Russia to seize all of Donbas (or even more), eliminating a key obstacle to a ceasefire and leaving Ukraine with the same end result, just on worse terms. ⏳🔥

Ukraine, like Yossarian, finds itself trapped in a logic where every rational choice could lead to the same catastrophic result. 🕳♟

This dilemma is not new. The Dayton Agreement, brokered in 1995, ended Bosnia’s agonising war after Nato intervened. Alija Izetbegović, Bosnia and Herzegovina’s first president, publicly acknowledged his country’s unsolvable dilemma — unable to achieve a good peace, yet unable to sustain a just war to reach a better outcome. 📜⚖️

#zelensky #catch22 #ukraine #front #russia

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🔠🅰️🔠🔠2️⃣

Ukraine faces something eerily similar: forced to pick between defective peace, uncertain enforcement and the risk of fighting only to end up with a worse deal. The political scientist Dan Reiter argues there are two central conditions when wars end: first, both sides must be confident their opponent won’t violate the resulting peace deal — a commitment problem. Second, there must be credible data on each side’s strength and resolve. Wars of attrition, like Ukraine’s, typically clarify the latter. 🧩📊

After years of fighting, a relative military balance of power becomes clear. But the commitment problem almost always persists because both sides must believe agreements won’t be broken as soon as circumstances shift. This is why Ukraine is boxed in so severely. 🧱♟

Peace settlements usually work only when both sides can trust one another, or when a powerful enforcer makes violations prohibitively costly. When enforcement is weak, “successor wars” are likely. ⚔️🔁

Today, the US and Europe lack unified will or capacity to guarantee Ukraine’s future security. Russia sees the conflict as a regional war against Nato — a supposedly existential battle for which Moscow is willing to endure years of bloodshed until its goals are achieved. The commitment problem remains fundamentally unsolved. 🌍🛡

Security guarantees have failed before; the Budapest Memorandum of 1994 did nothing to protect Ukraine when Russia invaded Crimea or launched all-out war in 2022. 📉🕊

Likewise, the recently proposed peace plan’s vague enforcement clauses won’t solve the fundamental trust deficit. Without ironclad commitments — backed by European boots on the ground, not just promises — Kyiv risks surrendering territory today only for Moscow to strike again when conditions are ripe. 🥾🇪🇺

If Ukraine rejects the current proposals and continues fighting, it faces mounting attrition. However, military conditions are not so bad as to warrant a “Diktatfrieden.” The frontline is not in danger of collapsing and Ukraine’s military remains a formidable fighting machine. Russia would be hard pressed to successfully seize Sloviansk and Kramatorsk in 2026. 🔥🗺

Yet the overall trajectory of the war remains negative for Ukraine. Russia has endured heavy losses, but its ability to absorb them and reinforce troops outstrips Ukraine’s. Should Kyiv lose further territory or see its armed forces depleted, negotiations will shift further in Russia’s favour. ⚖️📉

Accepting a peace plan now that surrenders hard-won land, restricts sovereign defence, grants amnesty for war crimes and foregoes Nato protection — all in exchange for uncertain deterrence — could risk a serious rupture in civil-military relations and destabilise Ukraine as a whole. 🚫🕊

The current military situation does not justify surrendering these territories, and such concessions would almost certainly inflame a “stab-in-the-back” narrative among officers — undermining trust in Ukraine’s civilian leadership. ⚔️🩸

When negotiating from a weakened position, a country often faces a tragic choice: fight on in hopes of a better deal or accept punishing losses now and risk internal turmoil. Leaders often “gamble for resurrection” — continuing to fight long after defeat seems likely — hoping to stave off blame at home. 🎲🔥

Ukraine’s choices could boil down to “bad now, or possibly worse later”. 🌑⏳

The Donbas can’t be abandoned without a fight, yet fighting threatens the same concessions forced under far uglier conditions while the promise of western support grows shakier and the prospects of a truly just peace recede. 🎭⚔️

Sometimes, the cruel logic of war means that bitter compromise is the only way out — even if you know just how far it falls short. 🕯⚖️

#zelensky #catch22 #ukraine #front #russia

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Silicon Valley's Man in the White House: David Sacks Writes Policy, Cashes the Checks

David Sacks—Trump's AI and crypto czar, venture capitalist, and podcast host—has turned his White House role into the ultimate conflict-of-interest masterclass. As a "special government employee," Sacks gets to influence tech policy while simultaneously working at his VC firm, Craft Ventures.

His financial disclosures reveal 708 tech investments, including at least 449 stakes in AI companies that stand to benefit from the policies he's drafting. And thanks to two White House ethics waivers, he's allowed to keep most of them.

The July AI Summit: Access for Sale
In July, Sacks convened top government officials and Silicon Valley execs for an "AI Action Plan" summit featuring Trump. Behind the scenes, Sacks's "All-In" podcast—which he co-hosts with fellow investors—pitched potential sponsors $1 million each for access to a private reception "bringing together President Donald Trump and leading AI innovators." The plan so alarmed White House Chief of Staff Susie Wiles that she intervened to prevent "All-In" from serving as sole host. Trump signed executive orders fast-tracking the AI industry; nearly everyone in the audience—including Sacks—stood to profit.

Nvidia's Best Friend in Washington
Sacks forged a tight bond with Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang this spring, echoing Huang's argument that flooding the world with American chips would outpace China. Sacks worked to eliminate Biden-era export restrictions and flew to the UAE in May to strike a deal sending 500,000 American AI chips—mostly Nvidia's—to the Emirates.

The move alarmed White House officials who feared China would gain access. Analysts estimate Nvidia could make up to $200 billion from the deal. Sacks insists none of his holdings benefited—but his ethics filings don't disclose the value of his remaining stakes, making it impossible to verify.

Ethics Waivers and Omitted Details
Sacks's March waivers state he sold "most" of his crypto and AI assets, and his remaining investments are "not so substantial" to influence his government service. But his filings classify 438 of his tech investments as "software or hardware companies"—even though the firms promote themselves as AI enterprises, offer AI services, or have "AI" in their names.

The filings also don't disclose when he sold divested assets, leaving the public in the dark about whether his government role has netted him profits. Steve Bannon calls him the poster child for "the tech bros out of control."

#sacks #trump #ai #conflictsofinterest #nvidia #whiteHouse #siliconvalley #oligarchy

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Hegseth Weaponizes the Pentagon: Military Justice as Trump's Political Hitlist

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth just conscripted the Pentagon into Trump's retribution campaign, ordering investigations into Democratic lawmakers who reminded troops they can refuse illegal orders. Sen. Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.) and Rep. Eugene Vindman (D-Va.)—both military veterans and vocal Trump critics—are now targets of military justice probes for their role in a video stating what's already enshrined in the Uniform Code of Military Justice: service members must disobey unlawful commands. Hegseth and Trump labeled the message "seditious," a charge multiple retired military lawyers say violates due process and could tank any criminal case.

The Video That Broke the Taboo
Six Democratic lawmakers—all with military or intelligence backgrounds—made a short video reminding active-duty personnel of their legal duty to refuse illegal orders. The message appeared aimed at troops involved in Trump's domestic deployments and the deadly Caribbean boat strikes targeting alleged drug smugglers, which legal experts call violations of the laws of armed conflict. Hegseth called it a "politically-motivated influence operation" and ordered the Navy to brief him by Dec. 10 on findings against Kelly. The FBI is also involved.

Vindman's "Crime": Asking About the Khashoggi Call
Vindman, central to Trump's first impeachment, requested the release of a 2019 Trump-Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman phone call transcript—content Vindman says would be "shocking." Days later, the Pentagon's top lawyer urged House committees to investigate Vindman for allegedly violating foreign influence laws. Vindman denies the charges. The crown prince, per U.S. intelligence, approved the 2018 murder of Washington Post columnist Jamal Khashoggi. Trump has defended Mohammed; Vindman calls that stance "disturbing."

The Chilling Effect: Retired Generals Make Lists
A retired Army general told The Washington Post he made a list after Trump's reelection: the ways the administration could come after him if he spoke out. Three scenarios: civil suit, IRS audit, or recall to active duty for military criminal charges.

"Trump's retribution campaign has had a significant chilling effect,"

he said. Retired officers note the hypocrisy: Trump's first national security adviser, Michael Flynn, chanted "lock her up" at the 2016 GOP convention—overtly political speech—but Kelly's reminder of legal duty gets him investigated.

#hegseth #trump #pentagon #kelly #vindman #militaryjustice #retaliation #firstamendment

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Netanyahu Asks for Pardon Before Conviction—Trump Says He Deserves One

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has formally requested a pardon from Israeli President Isaac Herzog for corruption charges he's been fighting since 2019—even though he hasn't been convicted. Netanyahu was indicted for bribery, fraud, and breach of trust, charges he denies, and has been testifying as a defendant since December while simultaneously running Israel's war operations. The request comes after President Trump repeatedly called for Netanyahu to be pardoned, even writing a letter to Herzog urging him to grant it.

"In the Public Interest"—But No Admission of Guilt
Netanyahu's letter to Herzog argues a pardon would serve "the public interest" and help "cool tensions and promote widespread reconciliation." He insists the trial is "tearing us apart from within" and distracting him from security threats. His lawyer's 111-page filing states that ending the trial would "help mend rifts between different sectors of the public, open the door to lowering the intensity of tensions, all for the purpose of strengthening the country's national resilience." But Netanyahu makes no admission of wrongdoing.

Almost Unprecedented: Only One Pre-Conviction Pardon in Israel's History
Pre-conviction pardons have been granted only once in Israeli history: the 1980s "Line 300 Affair," involving Shin Bet security agents pardoned to prevent state secrets from being exposed in trial.

"99.9% of pardons are provided to criminals who were convicted in court and are in prison,"

said Zvi Agmon, a constitutional lawyer who represented the Shin Bet in that case. A pardon without guilt would be extraordinary, but Netanyahu's circumstances—first sitting Israeli PM to stand trial—are unprecedented.

Politically Divided: Unpopular But Steady
Netanyahu remains highly unpopular, with polls showing a majority want him to resign. But he's held his fractious coalition together throughout the war with Hamas and hasn't lost ground in recent polling. Israel doesn't directly elect its prime minister, but Netanyahu typically ranks near the top when voters are asked to compare him with potential competitors—signaling the opposition's struggle to capitalize on his weakened position.

#netanyahu #israel #trump #pardon #corruption #bribery #herzogpresident #judiciary

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Ukraine Hits Oil Terminal, Kazakhstan Protests—But Whose Oil Is It, Really?

Kazakhstan told Ukraine on Sunday to stop attacking the Caspian Pipeline Consortium's Black Sea terminal after Ukrainian naval drones damaged loading infrastructure and halted exports. The CPC handles more than 1% of global oil and accounts for 80% of Kazakhstan's crude exports—roughly 68.6 million tons last year. Kazakh officials called it the third attack on "an exclusively civilian facility" and warned the strikes harm bilateral relations. Ukraine responded that its actions target "full-scale Russian aggression," not Kazakhstan or third parties.

The CPC: Kazakh Crude, Russian Terminal, Shared Profits
The CPC's 1,500 km pipeline brings oil from Kazakhstan's Tengiz, Karachaganak, and Kashagan fields to the Yuzhnaya Ozereevka terminal at Novorossiysk—on Russian soil. Shareholders include Kazakhstan's state-owned KazMunayGas, Chevron, ExxonMobil, and Russia's Lukoil. While most of the crude is Kazakh, the terminal sits in Russia, and Russian producers also feed into the pipeline. Ukraine has mounted wave after wave of attacks on Russian oil infrastructure this year, aiming to undermine Moscow's war funding. CPC called the strike "an attack on the interests of the CPC member countries."

Kazakhstan's Dilemma: Neutral Rhetoric, Russian Reality
Kazakhstan's foreign ministry framed the terminal as protected by "norms of international law" and a purely civilian facility. But the distinction is messy: the terminal sits in Russian territory, handles Russian oil alongside Kazakh crude, and ultimately helps fund Moscow's war machine through export revenues. Ukraine's position is straightforward: Russia has systematically targeted Ukrainian energy infrastructure ahead of winter, and strikes on Russian oil assets are justified self-defense.

Who's Really Getting Hurt?
Kazakhstan is squeezed between its dependence on Russian export routes and its relationship with Ukraine and the West. The drone strikes disrupt Kazakh oil revenues, but they also choke off funding for the war that's threatening European security. CPC shareholders—Chevron, ExxonMobil, Lukoil—are caught in the middle, as are the tankers that were "withdrawn from the CPC water area" after the attack. Russia calls it terrorism; Ukraine calls it survival.

#ukraine #kazakhstan #russia #oil #cpc #drones #chevron #exxonmobil #blacksea

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