One of the biggest macro event this month is Japan interest rate decision on March 18.
Now here’s where it gets interesting.
Oil prices are up 20%+ since the start of the year because war and global uncertainty are back on the table.
And remember Japan is heavily oil dependent.
If oil prices keep rising, inflationary pressure in Japan can increase. And if inflation starts moving higher, expectations around a rate hike will also rise.
Right now, the market is pricing in only a 6% chance of a hike.
But if oil keeps ripping like this, probability can shift quickly.
That said, inflation in Japan is still relatively controlled.
February 2026 CPI came at 1.8%, which is actually below BOJ’s 2% target.
So realistically, the chances of a rate hike in March are very low unless inflation begins to surprise on the upside.
Now here’s where it gets interesting.
Oil prices are up 20%+ since the start of the year because war and global uncertainty are back on the table.
And remember Japan is heavily oil dependent.
If oil prices keep rising, inflationary pressure in Japan can increase. And if inflation starts moving higher, expectations around a rate hike will also rise.
Right now, the market is pricing in only a 6% chance of a hike.
But if oil keeps ripping like this, probability can shift quickly.
That said, inflation in Japan is still relatively controlled.
February 2026 CPI came at 1.8%, which is actually below BOJ’s 2% target.
So realistically, the chances of a rate hike in March are very low unless inflation begins to surprise on the upside.
👍11😁3
There is one on chain signal that has nailed every major Bitcoin bottom of the past decade.
Supply in Profit vs Loss Convergence.
Even CoinDesk pointed out last month that this metric has identified the bottom in every cycle.
Here is what is happening right now.
Around 11.1 million BTC are sitting in profit, while 8.9 million BTC are in loss. The real opportunity shows up when these two numbers start moving toward each other. When profit and loss supply converge, it means pain is widespread, weak hands are exhausted, and the market is near maximum pessimism.
That exact convergence has marked the ultimate bottom in previous cycles.
It caught November 2022 around 15,000 dollars.
It caught March 2020 near 3,000 dollars.
It caught January 2019 around 3,000 dollars.
It even caught the 2015 bottom near 200 dollars.
Right now the gap is shrinking fast. We are very close.
historically align with a major cycle bottom. The setup is forming. The data is tightening. Now it is about watching...
Supply in Profit vs Loss Convergence.
Even CoinDesk pointed out last month that this metric has identified the bottom in every cycle.
Here is what is happening right now.
Around 11.1 million BTC are sitting in profit, while 8.9 million BTC are in loss. The real opportunity shows up when these two numbers start moving toward each other. When profit and loss supply converge, it means pain is widespread, weak hands are exhausted, and the market is near maximum pessimism.
That exact convergence has marked the ultimate bottom in previous cycles.
It caught November 2022 around 15,000 dollars.
It caught March 2020 near 3,000 dollars.
It caught January 2019 around 3,000 dollars.
It even caught the 2015 bottom near 200 dollars.
Right now the gap is shrinking fast. We are very close.
historically align with a major cycle bottom. The setup is forming. The data is tightening. Now it is about watching...
❤33👍8😁1
Oil just crashed 30%. The biggest single day crash in history.
And the reason? Trump casually dropped that the war could be ending soon with a press conference coming up in just an hour.
So the real question is... is he actually about to announce something, or is this mid war market manipulation at its finest? Tbh i don't trust Trump.
👀 Eyes on press conference... next 60 minutes might be the most important hour markets have seen this decade.
And the reason? Trump casually dropped that the war could be ending soon with a press conference coming up in just an hour.
So the real question is... is he actually about to announce something, or is this mid war market manipulation at its finest? Tbh i don't trust Trump.
👀 Eyes on press conference... next 60 minutes might be the most important hour markets have seen this decade.
👍12❤3
Alpha updates. 🪓
Oil just crashed 30%. The biggest single day crash in history. And the reason? Trump casually dropped that the war could be ending soon with a press conference coming up in just an hour. So the real question is... is he actually about to announce something…
As I said, I do not trust Trump.
Trump just said "I will not stop until Iran is totally defeated."
All this drama about ending the war just to manipulate oil prices??
Trump just said "I will not stop until Iran is totally defeated."
All this drama about ending the war just to manipulate oil prices??
❤14🤬8👍4
20 million Bitcoin are already mined, and now only about 5% of the total supply is left.
But here’s the crazy part.
Mining the remaining 1 million Bitcoin could take more than 100 years, and it will require multiple times more energy than what was used to mine the first 20 million.
Check this out. “Nvidia backed Starcloud, will become the first company ever to mine BITCOIN in space.”
Yes, space. Starcloud plans to launch around 88,000 solar powered satellites.
And launching a single satellite costs roughly $1-2 million.
Do the math - sending 88,000 satellites alone could cost $100–150 billion just for the launches.The entire project could exceed $200 billion.
Now the obvious question.. Why spend that kind of money? Why not just mine Bitcoin here on Earth?
Because of one simple reason mining difficulty.In the early days, you could mine Bitcoin on a laptop,then you needed stronger CPUs,then GPUs And eventually, ultra specialized machines called ASIC miners built only for mining.
As the Bitcoin network grows, mining difficulty keeps increasing, hardware gets heavier. Electricity consumption explodes.
Today in the US, mining 1 BTC costs around $70k-$80k.
Now imagine the cost after the next halving… and the one after that. By 2044, mining reward will drop to 0.097 BTC.
At that point, Earth based mining might become mathematically unprofitable.
There could be a moment when Electricity cost > Bitcoin price. When that happens, mining on Earth stops making economic sense.
And that’s where space comes in. In space you get ... Unlimited solar power.. No land costs.. No night cycles.. No government jurisdiction.. No water needed for cooling.
If Earth mining becomes unprofitable, whoever controls space mining infrastructure could end up controlling a huge share of the remaining Bitcoin issuance.Which means if Starcloud succeeds…They could potentially build a space level mining monopoly.
Bitcoin to the Moon❌ Space ✅
But here’s the crazy part.
Mining the remaining 1 million Bitcoin could take more than 100 years, and it will require multiple times more energy than what was used to mine the first 20 million.
Check this out. “Nvidia backed Starcloud, will become the first company ever to mine BITCOIN in space.”
Yes, space. Starcloud plans to launch around 88,000 solar powered satellites.
And launching a single satellite costs roughly $1-2 million.
Do the math - sending 88,000 satellites alone could cost $100–150 billion just for the launches.The entire project could exceed $200 billion.
Now the obvious question.. Why spend that kind of money? Why not just mine Bitcoin here on Earth?
Because of one simple reason mining difficulty.In the early days, you could mine Bitcoin on a laptop,then you needed stronger CPUs,then GPUs And eventually, ultra specialized machines called ASIC miners built only for mining.
As the Bitcoin network grows, mining difficulty keeps increasing, hardware gets heavier. Electricity consumption explodes.
Today in the US, mining 1 BTC costs around $70k-$80k.
Now imagine the cost after the next halving… and the one after that. By 2044, mining reward will drop to 0.097 BTC.
At that point, Earth based mining might become mathematically unprofitable.
There could be a moment when Electricity cost > Bitcoin price. When that happens, mining on Earth stops making economic sense.
And that’s where space comes in. In space you get ... Unlimited solar power.. No land costs.. No night cycles.. No government jurisdiction.. No water needed for cooling.
If Earth mining becomes unprofitable, whoever controls space mining infrastructure could end up controlling a huge share of the remaining Bitcoin issuance.Which means if Starcloud succeeds…They could potentially build a space level mining monopoly.
Bitcoin to the Moon❌ Space ✅
❤25🔥7
just shared the full article on how i automated my entire crypto research process.
tools, workflows, exact prompts, alerts, mistakes i made so you don't have to..
you can set it up this weekend.
free. no paywall.
LIKE and RT will if you find useful:
https://x.com/axel_bitblaze69/status/2032432210511593492?s=46&t=MpsMbNE2PDtDtDfKUQWooA
tools, workflows, exact prompts, alerts, mistakes i made so you don't have to..
you can set it up this weekend.
free. no paywall.
LIKE and RT will if you find useful:
https://x.com/axel_bitblaze69/status/2032432210511593492?s=46&t=MpsMbNE2PDtDtDfKUQWooA
X (formerly Twitter)
Axel Bitblaze 🪓 (@Axel_bitblaze69) on X
I want to automate my crypto research using AI (full guide)
❤13
shared about katana. worth keeping an eye on everyone
https://x.com/axel_bitblaze69/status/2032500402554560555
https://x.com/axel_bitblaze69/status/2032500402554560555
X (formerly Twitter)
Axel Bitblaze 🪓 (@Axel_bitblaze69) on X
literally the first chain that actually solved the "farm and dump" problem..
katana just opened pre-staking and i think most people are sleeping on this.. a quick breakdown..
> polygon and GSR basically built a whole chain just for DeFi
> not some random…
katana just opened pre-staking and i think most people are sleeping on this.. a quick breakdown..
> polygon and GSR basically built a whole chain just for DeFi
> not some random…
🔥7❤2
saylor is building the next terra/luna ponzi
shared new article comparing STRC’s 11.5% yield to UST’s 20%.
i went deep flywheel mechanics, the full debt table, the 194 copycats, the crash scenarios, all of it.
must read and please engage everyone. 👇
https://x.com/axel_bitblaze69/status/2032708484278661333
PLEASE LIKE AND RT 🫡
shared new article comparing STRC’s 11.5% yield to UST’s 20%.
i went deep flywheel mechanics, the full debt table, the 194 copycats, the crash scenarios, all of it.
must read and please engage everyone. 👇
https://x.com/axel_bitblaze69/status/2032708484278661333
PLEASE LIKE AND RT 🫡
❤16💩2
You can now become and Ai powered powerful crypto trader.
shared a full article on it. i hope you all will like it.. please must read.
drop a like and RT if you find it useful ♥️
https://x.com/axel_bitblaze69/status/2033347936923631735
shared a full article on it. i hope you all will like it.. please must read.
drop a like and RT if you find it useful ♥️
https://x.com/axel_bitblaze69/status/2033347936923631735
X (formerly Twitter)
Axel Bitblaze 🪓 (@Axel_bitblaze69) on X
I want to become an AI powered powerful crypto trader (full system)
❤14💯2🔥1
Everyone’s chasing the next AI startup…
But the real wildcard might be Tether.
CEO Paolo Ardoino just hinted their AI team is dropping a “breakthrough” next week... not an update, not a feature.
If the company printing the world’s 70% stablecoin starts mixing AI + digital money, that could get very interesting.
Next week might be bigger than people think.
But the real wildcard might be Tether.
CEO Paolo Ardoino just hinted their AI team is dropping a “breakthrough” next week... not an update, not a feature.
If the company printing the world’s 70% stablecoin starts mixing AI + digital money, that could get very interesting.
Next week might be bigger than people think.
❤9🎉5🔥1
This BTC structure looks dangerously similar to 2022. 👀
Last cycle $BTC:
• ATH → -52% crash (Nov - Feb)
• Then a hope rally → +40% recovery ( March)
• Then April - June… brutal -60% dump
Classic bear market trap.
Now look at current price action:
• Oct 2025 ATH → Feb low, exact -52% crash
• From that bottom → already +22% bounce
Same structure… even timing is same.
If this fractal plays out, We could see a push toward ~85K ( ~ +40% from bottom)…before the market pulls the rug again.
There’s one more detail worth noticing. In 2022, most of the upside came in just ~3 weeks, March to early April.
Right now..Since March 9, we have 8 consecutive green closes in BTC
Same timing. Same behavior. Not saying it WILL repeat…
But if it does, this is the setup worth watching.
Last cycle $BTC:
• ATH → -52% crash (Nov - Feb)
• Then a hope rally → +40% recovery ( March)
• Then April - June… brutal -60% dump
Classic bear market trap.
Now look at current price action:
• Oct 2025 ATH → Feb low, exact -52% crash
• From that bottom → already +22% bounce
Same structure… even timing is same.
If this fractal plays out, We could see a push toward ~85K ( ~ +40% from bottom)…before the market pulls the rug again.
There’s one more detail worth noticing. In 2022, most of the upside came in just ~3 weeks, March to early April.
Right now..Since March 9, we have 8 consecutive green closes in BTC
Same timing. Same behavior. Not saying it WILL repeat…
But if it does, this is the setup worth watching.
❤25🤯6🔥2
$SKY is undervalued or $HYPE is overvalued?
Hyperliquid generated ~2x the revenue of Sky over the past 12 months. But the difference in Valuation is around 20x
Sounds irrational? It’s not.
Because, HYPE captures value. SKY redistributes it.
HYPE keeps nearly 100% of its trading fees within the protocol.
That capital is then used for buybacks, directly benefiting the token.
SKY, on the other hand, generates revenue from fees and DAI lending but around 70-75% of that gets paid out to users as yield and incentives. Which means less value is retained and more is leaked out.
Also trading revenue is scalable, Volume driven, and tends to stay within the protocol. Lending yield compresses over time and is highly cyclical.
Value capture beats value distribution.Simple.
Hyperliquid generated ~2x the revenue of Sky over the past 12 months. But the difference in Valuation is around 20x
Sounds irrational? It’s not.
Because, HYPE captures value. SKY redistributes it.
HYPE keeps nearly 100% of its trading fees within the protocol.
That capital is then used for buybacks, directly benefiting the token.
SKY, on the other hand, generates revenue from fees and DAI lending but around 70-75% of that gets paid out to users as yield and incentives. Which means less value is retained and more is leaked out.
Also trading revenue is scalable, Volume driven, and tends to stay within the protocol. Lending yield compresses over time and is highly cyclical.
Value capture beats value distribution.Simple.
❤16
🚨 April is Packed - These Dates Can Move the Entire Crypto Market
April 6 - Strait of Hormuz Deadline
If Donald Trump’s demands aren’t met, Iran’s energy sites could be targeted. This could spike oil prices and shake global markets.
April 7 - Clarity Act Update
A major shift in crypto regulations could be announced. A positive outcome = strong bullish sentiment.
April 10 - US CPI Data
The key inflation indicator.
High inflation = market downside
Lower inflation = potential rally
April 14 - US PPI Data
Tracks producer costs. Early signal for future inflation, indirectly impacting crypto.
April 15 - Fed Beige Book Release
Summary of current economic conditions.
Expect sudden volatility after this.
April 17 - Morgan Stanley Spot Bitcoin ETF Launch
Morgan Stanley stepping in is a big institutional signal. Big players entering = potential strong BTC moves.
April 21 - Japan FSA Crypto Reform Goes Live
Tax reduced from 55% → 20%. Could boost adoption and fresh capital inflow from Japan.
April 27 - Bitcoin Conference 2026
Major announcements expected.
April 28 - FOMC Meeting
Crucial meeting, could even be Jerome Powell’s last. Interest rate expectations will shape market direction.
April 29 - FOMC Decision + Powell Press Conference
Final clarity on rates. Expect maximum volatility & fake moves.
April 30 - US GDP Data
Measures economic growth.
Strong GDP = bullish sentiment
Weak GDP = market pressure
April 6 - Strait of Hormuz Deadline
If Donald Trump’s demands aren’t met, Iran’s energy sites could be targeted. This could spike oil prices and shake global markets.
April 7 - Clarity Act Update
A major shift in crypto regulations could be announced. A positive outcome = strong bullish sentiment.
April 10 - US CPI Data
The key inflation indicator.
High inflation = market downside
Lower inflation = potential rally
April 14 - US PPI Data
Tracks producer costs. Early signal for future inflation, indirectly impacting crypto.
April 15 - Fed Beige Book Release
Summary of current economic conditions.
Expect sudden volatility after this.
April 17 - Morgan Stanley Spot Bitcoin ETF Launch
Morgan Stanley stepping in is a big institutional signal. Big players entering = potential strong BTC moves.
April 21 - Japan FSA Crypto Reform Goes Live
Tax reduced from 55% → 20%. Could boost adoption and fresh capital inflow from Japan.
April 27 - Bitcoin Conference 2026
Major announcements expected.
April 28 - FOMC Meeting
Crucial meeting, could even be Jerome Powell’s last. Interest rate expectations will shape market direction.
April 29 - FOMC Decision + Powell Press Conference
Final clarity on rates. Expect maximum volatility & fake moves.
April 30 - US GDP Data
Measures economic growth.
Strong GDP = bullish sentiment
Weak GDP = market pressure
❤20
Satoshi’s birthday.
CT flooded with ‘Happy Birthday’ posts from ponzi projects.
Same energy as people who worship Buddha but never read a single line about detachment. Peace.
CT flooded with ‘Happy Birthday’ posts from ponzi projects.
Same energy as people who worship Buddha but never read a single line about detachment. Peace.
❤20👍2
426 oil tankers. 53 gas tankers. Still paralyzed at the Strait of Hormuz, even after the so called ceasefire.
Iran just dropped the bomb: No Islamabad talks until Lebanon ceasefire.
The US laid out 14 conditions, and Iran countered with 10.And Iran's biggest condition is exactly why those ships are stuck - The Absolute control over the Strait of Hormuz.
Do they actually expect the US to accept this? Not a chance. They know it's impossible.. So why even ask for it?
it’s a classic geopolitical play known as the 'Door in the Face' technique. You start by throwing an extreme, impossible demand on the table, forcing your opponent to reject it. That way, when you finally reveal what you actually want, it suddenly looks like a reasonable compromise.
And that actual demand has nothing to do with shipping routes or oil. It is entirely about protecting their Uranium Enrichment program.
For Trump, reopening the Strait would be the ultimate war trophy: a geopolitical scalp he can parade in front of his MAGA base and shove straight into NATO’s face.
Behind that distraction, Iran thinks it can keep building its nuclear edge uninterrupted. And this is the real chokepoint of the negotiation.
…The real fight is whether Trump trades a reopened Strait for a nuclear armed Iran because once that threshold is crossed, America’s dominance in the Middle East ends for good. The real endgame hasn’t even started.
Iran just dropped the bomb: No Islamabad talks until Lebanon ceasefire.
The US laid out 14 conditions, and Iran countered with 10.And Iran's biggest condition is exactly why those ships are stuck - The Absolute control over the Strait of Hormuz.
Do they actually expect the US to accept this? Not a chance. They know it's impossible.. So why even ask for it?
it’s a classic geopolitical play known as the 'Door in the Face' technique. You start by throwing an extreme, impossible demand on the table, forcing your opponent to reject it. That way, when you finally reveal what you actually want, it suddenly looks like a reasonable compromise.
And that actual demand has nothing to do with shipping routes or oil. It is entirely about protecting their Uranium Enrichment program.
For Trump, reopening the Strait would be the ultimate war trophy: a geopolitical scalp he can parade in front of his MAGA base and shove straight into NATO’s face.
Behind that distraction, Iran thinks it can keep building its nuclear edge uninterrupted. And this is the real chokepoint of the negotiation.
…The real fight is whether Trump trades a reopened Strait for a nuclear armed Iran because once that threshold is crossed, America’s dominance in the Middle East ends for good. The real endgame hasn’t even started.
❤10👍4
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This keypad feature phone is actually a Bitcoin hardware wallet.
This cryobrick app turns old feature phone into an “Air gapped Cold Wallet” .. no SIM, no WiFi, no network… completely offline.
Open the app → it gives you a 12 word seed phrase offline, just like any crypto wallet.
But how can anyone send Bitcoin without internet?
That’s the real magic…
Create trxn on smartphone in BlueWallet kinda any BTC wallet → QR code appears.
Pick up your offline Cryobrick phone → scan the QR → approve it.
It generates a new signed QR code. Scan that back into the smartphone wallet and it broadcasts to the blockchain.
Boom! Transaction done.Entire process happens only through QR codes. Private key never touches the internet.
This cryobrick app turns old feature phone into an “Air gapped Cold Wallet” .. no SIM, no WiFi, no network… completely offline.
Open the app → it gives you a 12 word seed phrase offline, just like any crypto wallet.
But how can anyone send Bitcoin without internet?
That’s the real magic…
Create trxn on smartphone in BlueWallet kinda any BTC wallet → QR code appears.
Pick up your offline Cryobrick phone → scan the QR → approve it.
It generates a new signed QR code. Scan that back into the smartphone wallet and it broadcasts to the blockchain.
Boom! Transaction done.Entire process happens only through QR codes. Private key never touches the internet.
❤12🔥7