Alpha updates. 🪓
People claiming Jeffrey Epstein was actually Satoshi. You really don’t need a long thread to figure this out. The image is fake. and it’s a pretty sloppy fake. The email is dated 2008 but sent to a TerraMar address. TerraMar didn’t even exist back then,…
FUD making rounds.. Now the story is that Bitcoin wasn’t created by one Satoshi Nakamoto, but by five developers, and that early funding somehow traces back to donations at MIT linked to Jeffrey Epstein.
Yes, the document being shared is real ... but people are twisting the context.
The email is from 2015, when MIT Media Lab’s Digital Currency Initiative was starting research on crypto. Around that time, 3 out of 5 Bitcoin core developers later joined the media labs affiliated with research & funding connected to MIT. But that does not mean they created Bitcoin.
Calling those 5 people “the creators of Bitcoin” makes no sense. Being a Bitcoin Core developer does not make someone the creator. Bitcoin is open source. Contributors change over time. Some devs step in, some step away. Node operators and the broader community ultimately decides.
At that time, those 5 were active core developers. Today it’s different people. In the future it will be others. That’s how decentralized development works.
Yes, the document being shared is real ... but people are twisting the context.
The email is from 2015, when MIT Media Lab’s Digital Currency Initiative was starting research on crypto. Around that time, 3 out of 5 Bitcoin core developers later joined the media labs affiliated with research & funding connected to MIT. But that does not mean they created Bitcoin.
Calling those 5 people “the creators of Bitcoin” makes no sense. Being a Bitcoin Core developer does not make someone the creator. Bitcoin is open source. Contributors change over time. Some devs step in, some step away. Node operators and the broader community ultimately decides.
At that time, those 5 were active core developers. Today it’s different people. In the future it will be others. That’s how decentralized development works.
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BTC is bleeding near a key support, and suddenly thousands of coins are moving onto Binance.
That’s sell pressure. That’s fear showing up on chain.
Exchange inflows usually surge when panic peaks when weak hands give up and late sellers rush to market out of emotion, not strategy.
In just two days, nearly 60,000 BTC hit Binance. One day alone saw a wave of coins moved at a loss.
Yes, price can still dip. Fear phases are messy. But historically, when selling becomes this emotional and crowded, markets don’t stay down for long. It never feels good near turning points. It’s not supposed to.
That’s sell pressure. That’s fear showing up on chain.
Exchange inflows usually surge when panic peaks when weak hands give up and late sellers rush to market out of emotion, not strategy.
In just two days, nearly 60,000 BTC hit Binance. One day alone saw a wave of coins moved at a loss.
Yes, price can still dip. Fear phases are messy. But historically, when selling becomes this emotional and crowded, markets don’t stay down for long. It never feels good near turning points. It’s not supposed to.
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Prediction markets feel random… until you see the structure.
Most of us scroll categories one by one and assume that’s “research.”
I found a visual layout that shows all categories and subcategories in one place. It completely changes how you understand where attention is flowing. 🥂
https://predictions.paradigm.xyz
Most of us scroll categories one by one and assume that’s “research.”
I found a visual layout that shows all categories and subcategories in one place. It completely changes how you understand where attention is flowing. 🥂
https://predictions.paradigm.xyz
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No matter market is pumping or dumping, one thing remains constant that is Stablecoins growth.
For the last 2 years, stablecoin growing at steady 50% YoY. and if this trend continues we could hit $500B by the end of 2026. But honestly here’s why I think 2026 will be even bigger than we imagine.
2025 changed everything.
With the GENIUS Act and new U.S. stablecoin laws passed in July 2025, the biggest barrier regulatory fear is gone. Big banks and institutions like JPMorgan and Visa finally have the legal clarity they needed.
Stablecoins are evolving from exchange collateral into global settlement rails for payments, remittances, and card network and that’s what opens the road to $2T.
Standard Chartered and Citi bank predicting $2 Trillion stablecoin MC by the end of 2028.
If stablecoin alone hits $2T then based on typical dominance ratio, net Crypto MC should be around $15-20T putting BTC roughly at $8-10T or near $500K at 55% dominance.
Let’s just hope $ETH isn’t still trading near $3k by then... lol
For the last 2 years, stablecoin growing at steady 50% YoY. and if this trend continues we could hit $500B by the end of 2026. But honestly here’s why I think 2026 will be even bigger than we imagine.
2025 changed everything.
With the GENIUS Act and new U.S. stablecoin laws passed in July 2025, the biggest barrier regulatory fear is gone. Big banks and institutions like JPMorgan and Visa finally have the legal clarity they needed.
Stablecoins are evolving from exchange collateral into global settlement rails for payments, remittances, and card network and that’s what opens the road to $2T.
Standard Chartered and Citi bank predicting $2 Trillion stablecoin MC by the end of 2028.
If stablecoin alone hits $2T then based on typical dominance ratio, net Crypto MC should be around $15-20T putting BTC roughly at $8-10T or near $500K at 55% dominance.
Let’s just hope $ETH isn’t still trading near $3k by then... lol
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Bitcoin is going through one of its worst phases in history, it has now closed five consecutive months in red, pushing market into extremely oversold territory, levels last seen during the 2018 bear market.
2026 has already made history as the first year ever where both January and February closed back to back in red.
Data shows the market is at Extreme Exhaustion, five consecutive monthly closes are red, imo the probability of mean reversion rises to above 90% in technical terms.
2026 has already made history as the first year ever where both January and February closed back to back in red.
Data shows the market is at Extreme Exhaustion, five consecutive monthly closes are red, imo the probability of mean reversion rises to above 90% in technical terms.
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Bitcoin isn’t operating on a clean 21M fixed supply anymore… and honestly all thanks to Paper Bitcoin.
Yes the blockchain still has the hard cap of 21 million coins. But the market structure around Bitcoin has completely changed.
Wall Street stepped in with Futures, Options, ETFs. And these instruments allow multiple players to take exposure to the same single coin at the same time.
Think about it like this…
One real Bitcoin is sitting in custody somewhere. But on top of that one coin, there are multiple “paper” claims. Multiple bets. Multiple positions.
No new Bitcoin is being mined.
But financially? It’s as if synthetic supply keeps expanding.
That’s the game.
Scarcity still exists on chain.
But in the trading arena, that scarcity gets diluted by leverage.
And in this new environment, price isn’t just moving because retail is bullish or bearish. It’s being pushed around by leverage, liquidations, open interest spikes, funding rates… basically the cost of holding those paper bets.
Short term? Of course it matters. Leverage gets flushed. Open interest explodes. New bets pile in. You see long wicks on both sides. Volatility becomes the show.
But for long term holders, none of this matters
Yes the blockchain still has the hard cap of 21 million coins. But the market structure around Bitcoin has completely changed.
Wall Street stepped in with Futures, Options, ETFs. And these instruments allow multiple players to take exposure to the same single coin at the same time.
Think about it like this…
One real Bitcoin is sitting in custody somewhere. But on top of that one coin, there are multiple “paper” claims. Multiple bets. Multiple positions.
No new Bitcoin is being mined.
But financially? It’s as if synthetic supply keeps expanding.
That’s the game.
Scarcity still exists on chain.
But in the trading arena, that scarcity gets diluted by leverage.
And in this new environment, price isn’t just moving because retail is bullish or bearish. It’s being pushed around by leverage, liquidations, open interest spikes, funding rates… basically the cost of holding those paper bets.
Short term? Of course it matters. Leverage gets flushed. Open interest explodes. New bets pile in. You see long wicks on both sides. Volatility becomes the show.
But for long term holders, none of this matters
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Bitcoin’s weekly RSI is now at 25.46…
The lowest level in its entire 17 year history.
The previous record was 28.3 in 2022 and now we are even below that.
Bitcoin has never been this oversold before.
Look at the history. Every time Bitcoin has been this oversold, the next 6-12 months followed by recovery:
2022 (Luna/FTX crash) → RSI 28.3 → +85% recovery
COVID Crash 2020 → RSI 26.4 → +160%+ recovery
2018 Bear Market → RSI ~28 → +108% recovery
Panic doesn’t change maths
The lowest level in its entire 17 year history.
The previous record was 28.3 in 2022 and now we are even below that.
Bitcoin has never been this oversold before.
Look at the history. Every time Bitcoin has been this oversold, the next 6-12 months followed by recovery:
2022 (Luna/FTX crash) → RSI 28.3 → +85% recovery
COVID Crash 2020 → RSI 26.4 → +160%+ recovery
2018 Bear Market → RSI ~28 → +108% recovery
Panic doesn’t change maths
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30 out of 30 top indicators… and not ONE has triggered.
Let that sink in.
Pi Cycle Top? .. Puell Multiple ..MVRV?
None of it hit ..
And yet $BTC is already deep underwater.
So what’s the truth?
Either this bull run hasn’t peaked yet and we are just living through a violent mid cycle shakeout.
or all 30 indicators are completely useless and years of cycle data just stopped working overnight.
Being honest...in every previous cycle top 2017, 2021 at least a few major signals were flashing red.
This time? Nothing.
If this is the top… it’s the weakest, most invisible top in Bitcoin history.
Let that sink in.
Pi Cycle Top? .. Puell Multiple ..MVRV?
None of it hit ..
And yet $BTC is already deep underwater.
So what’s the truth?
Either this bull run hasn’t peaked yet and we are just living through a violent mid cycle shakeout.
or all 30 indicators are completely useless and years of cycle data just stopped working overnight.
Being honest...in every previous cycle top 2017, 2021 at least a few major signals were flashing red.
This time? Nothing.
If this is the top… it’s the weakest, most invisible top in Bitcoin history.
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Crypto total market cap is $2.3T, and CZ alone has a net worth of $80B.
That’s roughly 3.5% of the entire crypto industry’s net worth in the hands of one person ( thay too in crypto)
Owning 3.5% of the total supply of Bitcoin, Ethereum, or even Solana isn’t normal, that’s GOD level dominance.
And here, one individual effectively owns 3.5% of the whole industry.
But the story doesn’t end here.
Binance is responsible for around $160B in user funds custody.
Not saying this belongs to Binance itself, but indirectly and effectively, those funds are controlled by Binance.
So in total, more than 10% of the entire industry’s mc is effectively under CZ’s control.
That’s scary.
That’s roughly 3.5% of the entire crypto industry’s net worth in the hands of one person ( thay too in crypto)
Owning 3.5% of the total supply of Bitcoin, Ethereum, or even Solana isn’t normal, that’s GOD level dominance.
And here, one individual effectively owns 3.5% of the whole industry.
But the story doesn’t end here.
Binance is responsible for around $160B in user funds custody.
Not saying this belongs to Binance itself, but indirectly and effectively, those funds are controlled by Binance.
So in total, more than 10% of the entire industry’s mc is effectively under CZ’s control.
That’s scary.
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From the U.S. dropping missiles on Iran last year to the capture of Venezuelan president, every major event under Trump happened on weekends.
There is no serious trader in the financial markets who doesn’t know that a strike is coming this weekend and many opened shorts ahead of time.
Today, we’re living through the strike, and crypto still hasn’t made new lows. The main reason for that is the strike being priced in ahead of time.
There is no serious trader in the financial markets who doesn’t know that a strike is coming this weekend and many opened shorts ahead of time.
Today, we’re living through the strike, and crypto still hasn’t made new lows. The main reason for that is the strike being priced in ahead of time.
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One of the biggest macro event this month is Japan interest rate decision on March 18.
Now here’s where it gets interesting.
Oil prices are up 20%+ since the start of the year because war and global uncertainty are back on the table.
And remember Japan is heavily oil dependent.
If oil prices keep rising, inflationary pressure in Japan can increase. And if inflation starts moving higher, expectations around a rate hike will also rise.
Right now, the market is pricing in only a 6% chance of a hike.
But if oil keeps ripping like this, probability can shift quickly.
That said, inflation in Japan is still relatively controlled.
February 2026 CPI came at 1.8%, which is actually below BOJ’s 2% target.
So realistically, the chances of a rate hike in March are very low unless inflation begins to surprise on the upside.
Now here’s where it gets interesting.
Oil prices are up 20%+ since the start of the year because war and global uncertainty are back on the table.
And remember Japan is heavily oil dependent.
If oil prices keep rising, inflationary pressure in Japan can increase. And if inflation starts moving higher, expectations around a rate hike will also rise.
Right now, the market is pricing in only a 6% chance of a hike.
But if oil keeps ripping like this, probability can shift quickly.
That said, inflation in Japan is still relatively controlled.
February 2026 CPI came at 1.8%, which is actually below BOJ’s 2% target.
So realistically, the chances of a rate hike in March are very low unless inflation begins to surprise on the upside.
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There is one on chain signal that has nailed every major Bitcoin bottom of the past decade.
Supply in Profit vs Loss Convergence.
Even CoinDesk pointed out last month that this metric has identified the bottom in every cycle.
Here is what is happening right now.
Around 11.1 million BTC are sitting in profit, while 8.9 million BTC are in loss. The real opportunity shows up when these two numbers start moving toward each other. When profit and loss supply converge, it means pain is widespread, weak hands are exhausted, and the market is near maximum pessimism.
That exact convergence has marked the ultimate bottom in previous cycles.
It caught November 2022 around 15,000 dollars.
It caught March 2020 near 3,000 dollars.
It caught January 2019 around 3,000 dollars.
It even caught the 2015 bottom near 200 dollars.
Right now the gap is shrinking fast. We are very close.
historically align with a major cycle bottom. The setup is forming. The data is tightening. Now it is about watching...
Supply in Profit vs Loss Convergence.
Even CoinDesk pointed out last month that this metric has identified the bottom in every cycle.
Here is what is happening right now.
Around 11.1 million BTC are sitting in profit, while 8.9 million BTC are in loss. The real opportunity shows up when these two numbers start moving toward each other. When profit and loss supply converge, it means pain is widespread, weak hands are exhausted, and the market is near maximum pessimism.
That exact convergence has marked the ultimate bottom in previous cycles.
It caught November 2022 around 15,000 dollars.
It caught March 2020 near 3,000 dollars.
It caught January 2019 around 3,000 dollars.
It even caught the 2015 bottom near 200 dollars.
Right now the gap is shrinking fast. We are very close.
historically align with a major cycle bottom. The setup is forming. The data is tightening. Now it is about watching...
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Oil just crashed 30%. The biggest single day crash in history.
And the reason? Trump casually dropped that the war could be ending soon with a press conference coming up in just an hour.
So the real question is... is he actually about to announce something, or is this mid war market manipulation at its finest? Tbh i don't trust Trump.
👀 Eyes on press conference... next 60 minutes might be the most important hour markets have seen this decade.
And the reason? Trump casually dropped that the war could be ending soon with a press conference coming up in just an hour.
So the real question is... is he actually about to announce something, or is this mid war market manipulation at its finest? Tbh i don't trust Trump.
👀 Eyes on press conference... next 60 minutes might be the most important hour markets have seen this decade.
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Alpha updates. 🪓
Oil just crashed 30%. The biggest single day crash in history. And the reason? Trump casually dropped that the war could be ending soon with a press conference coming up in just an hour. So the real question is... is he actually about to announce something…
As I said, I do not trust Trump.
Trump just said "I will not stop until Iran is totally defeated."
All this drama about ending the war just to manipulate oil prices??
Trump just said "I will not stop until Iran is totally defeated."
All this drama about ending the war just to manipulate oil prices??
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20 million Bitcoin are already mined, and now only about 5% of the total supply is left.
But here’s the crazy part.
Mining the remaining 1 million Bitcoin could take more than 100 years, and it will require multiple times more energy than what was used to mine the first 20 million.
Check this out. “Nvidia backed Starcloud, will become the first company ever to mine BITCOIN in space.”
Yes, space. Starcloud plans to launch around 88,000 solar powered satellites.
And launching a single satellite costs roughly $1-2 million.
Do the math - sending 88,000 satellites alone could cost $100–150 billion just for the launches.The entire project could exceed $200 billion.
Now the obvious question.. Why spend that kind of money? Why not just mine Bitcoin here on Earth?
Because of one simple reason mining difficulty.In the early days, you could mine Bitcoin on a laptop,then you needed stronger CPUs,then GPUs And eventually, ultra specialized machines called ASIC miners built only for mining.
As the Bitcoin network grows, mining difficulty keeps increasing, hardware gets heavier. Electricity consumption explodes.
Today in the US, mining 1 BTC costs around $70k-$80k.
Now imagine the cost after the next halving… and the one after that. By 2044, mining reward will drop to 0.097 BTC.
At that point, Earth based mining might become mathematically unprofitable.
There could be a moment when Electricity cost > Bitcoin price. When that happens, mining on Earth stops making economic sense.
And that’s where space comes in. In space you get ... Unlimited solar power.. No land costs.. No night cycles.. No government jurisdiction.. No water needed for cooling.
If Earth mining becomes unprofitable, whoever controls space mining infrastructure could end up controlling a huge share of the remaining Bitcoin issuance.Which means if Starcloud succeeds…They could potentially build a space level mining monopoly.
Bitcoin to the Moon❌ Space ✅
But here’s the crazy part.
Mining the remaining 1 million Bitcoin could take more than 100 years, and it will require multiple times more energy than what was used to mine the first 20 million.
Check this out. “Nvidia backed Starcloud, will become the first company ever to mine BITCOIN in space.”
Yes, space. Starcloud plans to launch around 88,000 solar powered satellites.
And launching a single satellite costs roughly $1-2 million.
Do the math - sending 88,000 satellites alone could cost $100–150 billion just for the launches.The entire project could exceed $200 billion.
Now the obvious question.. Why spend that kind of money? Why not just mine Bitcoin here on Earth?
Because of one simple reason mining difficulty.In the early days, you could mine Bitcoin on a laptop,then you needed stronger CPUs,then GPUs And eventually, ultra specialized machines called ASIC miners built only for mining.
As the Bitcoin network grows, mining difficulty keeps increasing, hardware gets heavier. Electricity consumption explodes.
Today in the US, mining 1 BTC costs around $70k-$80k.
Now imagine the cost after the next halving… and the one after that. By 2044, mining reward will drop to 0.097 BTC.
At that point, Earth based mining might become mathematically unprofitable.
There could be a moment when Electricity cost > Bitcoin price. When that happens, mining on Earth stops making economic sense.
And that’s where space comes in. In space you get ... Unlimited solar power.. No land costs.. No night cycles.. No government jurisdiction.. No water needed for cooling.
If Earth mining becomes unprofitable, whoever controls space mining infrastructure could end up controlling a huge share of the remaining Bitcoin issuance.Which means if Starcloud succeeds…They could potentially build a space level mining monopoly.
Bitcoin to the Moon❌ Space ✅
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