Bitcoin has never remained in a downtrend against Gold for more than 14 months.

The average Bitcoin downtrend period is around 427 days, and right now we are very close to that level 👀

Last time, when Bitcoin broke out of this downtrend in December 2022, BTC went on to rally nearly 400% by March 2024.

Now we’re sitting at the same type of inflection point where disbelief is high, confidence is low, and the bigger cycle hasn’t started turning yet.

While most chains are either dying or have already become ghost chains, activity on the $APT network has been rising consistently month after month and has now reached an all time high.

Everyone said gold was “safer.”
This chart shows what actually happened once Bitcoin entered the picture.

• Over 2 years: Bitcoin clearly outperforms
• Over 4, 6, 8 years: there’s no real comparison
• Over a full decade: gold and silver are flat lines at the bottom.

Diversification matters. But ignoring emerging assets is the real risk.

Something interesting is happening on Binance.

For years, Binance averaged ~12,000 BTC per month in inflows. Now that number is down to ~5,800 BTC/month, nearly cut in half.

We haven’t seen inflow levels this low since 2020. (And remember: Binance is roughly 4x larger today than it was back then.)

That’s a big shift. And it doesn’t stop there…

Since October 10, Binance has recorded roughly $63 billion in outflows. Out of that, $10 billion left in just the last 7 days alone.

This isn’t retail panic. Retail sells on exchanges. This is large capital moving coins off exchanges, usually a sign of holding, not trading.

At the same time, CZ posted four times this week telling people to buy and hold.

Does CZ see a supply squeeze coming? Or is he trying to restore confidence and slow down the outflows from Binance? Hard to say for sure.

Institutions Remain Optimistic on Bitcoin

Coinbase conducted survey for institutional investors showed that 80% of them would hold or buy more crypto if markets dropped another 10%, indicating strong signs of long term conviction.

Since Bitcoin’s last all time high in October, more than half of these investors have either maintained or increased their positions.

The odds of a U.S. government shutdown on January 31 have now dropped to 51%.

But it feels like nothing is bullish for our market anymore.

Gold is at All Time High
Silver is at All Time High
Stocks are at All Time High

But BTC is dumping… Things have changed after 10/10. Many big players have left the industry for good, and that’s why we’re facing a serious liquidity crisis.

Silver Inu

OKX CEO Star Xu is now after CZ kind of like CZ went after SBF in 2022.

If this keeps escalating, market sentiment is going to get even more uglier and messy.

Gold dumping.. Silver dumping.. Bitcoin is dumping.. U.S. stocks are dumping.. Even the DXY is falling.

So where is the money actually going?

morning thoughts

woke up to $BTC at $78.4k. down 6% overnight while i was sleeping. iran situation escalated and weekend liquidity amplified the move.

btc sitting at $78.4k right now. down 6.2% since yesterday.

checking the data:

liquidations:

$2.1B wiped out in 24h. 82% longs got crushed. funding turned negative for first time in weeks. open interest down 8% overleveraged positions getting cleared before feb starts.

on-chain:

15k btc flowing into exchanges (sell pressure building). miners dumped 2% of reserves (winter storm forcing capitulation). stablecoin supply flat at $172B (no new money entering yet).

what i'm watching:

• $77k support testing right now
• long/short ratio at 0.48 (extreme fear everyone positioned for more downside)
• iran tensions + us miner stress from weather

my take:

jan flushed everyone out like expected. funding flipped negative, leverage cleared, sentiment dead. this is what needed to happen before feb bounce. but $77k has to hold. lose that and $68k is next. watching closely.

Translation: Fix your behaviour or else no Bull run for you.

Big CME gap opened at 84500

BTC Weekly RSI now approaching zone where all major cycle bottom has formed

Cycle 1 Bottom (2011)18 November 2011 : 35.6

Cycle 2 Bottom (2015)14 January 2015: 31.8

Cycle 3 Bottom (2018)15 December 2018: RSI: 32

Cycle 4 Bottom (2022)21 November 2022 : RSI - 31

Current RSI 33.3

ETH funding rate just went FULL RAGE MODE NEGATIVE. Plunged to -0.02%, the most negative level in recent months..signaling heavy short positioning.

When funding gets this negative, sentiment this dark, reversals often follow fast.

People claiming Jeffrey Epstein was actually Satoshi.

You really don’t need a long thread to figure this out. The image is fake. and it’s a pretty sloppy fake.

The email is dated 2008 but sent to a TerraMar address. TerraMar didn’t even exist back then, it only started in 2012. So what, the email took a time machine?

And “funding secured”? That phrase became a meme after Elon Musk tweeted it in 2018. Nobody was casually signing emails like that in 2008.

It's just a bad fake. Skip the FUD.

FUD making rounds.. Now the story is that Bitcoin wasn’t created by one Satoshi Nakamoto, but by five developers, and that early funding somehow traces back to donations at MIT linked to Jeffrey Epstein.

Yes, the document being shared is real ... but people are twisting the context.

The email is from 2015, when MIT Media Lab’s Digital Currency Initiative was starting research on crypto. Around that time, 3 out of 5 Bitcoin core developers later joined the media labs affiliated with research & funding connected to MIT. But that does not mean they created Bitcoin.

Calling those 5 people “the creators of Bitcoin” makes no sense. Being a Bitcoin Core developer does not make someone the creator. Bitcoin is open source. Contributors change over time. Some devs step in, some step away. Node operators and the broader community ultimately decides.

At that time, those 5 were active core developers. Today it’s different people. In the future it will be others. That’s how decentralized development works.

BTC is bleeding near a key support, and suddenly thousands of coins are moving onto Binance.

That’s sell pressure. That’s fear showing up on chain.

Exchange inflows usually surge when panic peaks when weak hands give up and late sellers rush to market out of emotion, not strategy.

In just two days, nearly 60,000 BTC hit Binance. One day alone saw a wave of coins moved at a loss.

Yes, price can still dip. Fear phases are messy. But historically, when selling becomes this emotional and crowded, markets don’t stay down for long. It never feels good near turning points. It’s not supposed to.