In April 2026, the copper market presents institutional observers with a clear-cut analytical challenge: separating near-term price volatility from a long-term structural thesis that has only strengthened over the past 18 months.

➡️ The near-term picture is complicated

LME copper is trading near $12,250/mt (down from a January 2026 peak, but still up more than 30% year-over-year). Goldman Sachs has flagged a potential 2026 surplus of roughly 300,000 mt, with prices potentially drifting toward $11,200 by year-end.

That near-term caution is analytically legitimate. Yet it doesn't change the longer arc.

➡️ Three institutions, one conclusion

Goldman's own long-term desk maintains a $15,000-per-tonne price target for 2035. The bank's analysts argue that grid and energy infrastructure will account for 60% of global copper demand growth through 2030.

Trafigura's chief economist was direct: "We already have a 5M tonne deficit gap by 2030."

The IEA's Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2025 identifies a potential 30% copper supply shortfall by 2035, driven by declining ore grades, rising capital costs, limited new discoveries, and long lead times.

➡️ The supply response problem

The supply cannot respond to price signals within the relevant timeframe. Annual demand growth is already requiring the equivalent of one new major mine every year.

➡️ Three characteristics make copper distinct from a standard commodity cycle position:

Demand inelasticity: EV mandates, grid targets, and AI infrastructure buildouts are policy-committed and don't pause in downturns.

Supply irreversibility: the gap forming in the late 2020s cannot be closed by current price levels within the window.

Geopolitical concentration: China controls 45% of global refining capacity, creating supply security risks that Western governments are actively hedging.

The near-term volatility in copper markets in 2026 and the longer structural thesis are both real. For allocators assessing exposure to real assets with multi-year structural support,

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For most of financial history, exposure to commodities was either deeply inconvenient or deeply incomplete. You could own the real thing, or you could own a financial product that tracked it, and accept that you were never actually touching the underlying asset.

Every attempt to solve it introduced a new limitation. Here's what that looked like in practice:

🔹 Physical ownership delivers full exposure to the asset and its industrial reality. But a standard copper lot is 25 tonnes.

🔹 ETFs democratized access. For the first time, anyone could add copper or oil to a portfolio without a warehouse. But an ETFs only track a price.

🔹 Futures brought more direct exposure and genuine hedging utility. But rollover costs, margin requirements, and contract expiry create friction that works against long-term holders.

🔹 RWA tokenization approaches the problem from a different starting point. Fractional access replaces minimum lot sizes. On-chain settlement ensures a continuous audit trail. And the structure can reflect price exposure and the value created by an actual industrial cycle.

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This May, our team had the privilege of attending the 2026 Global Renewable Metal Industry Chain Summit in Tokyo. It’s one of the most significant gatherings in the renewable metals space, bringing together over 600 delegates, 50+ speakers, and industry leaders from across the globe.

Our Chief Legal and Structuring Officer, Justas Pangonis, had the opportunity to speak with the Shanghai Metals Market team, sharing the story of Mirada Levante's eight years of operations, our copper recycling and export activities, and the role ALCUM plays in making participation in that industrial cycle more accessible.

We came to expand our network of partners and buyers across Asia, and to deepen our presence in markets where demand for high-quality refined copper is growing rapidly. We are grateful to say we met those goals, and even more.

A sincere thank you to the summit’s team for organizing an event, and to everyone we had the chance to connect with in Tokyo.

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Mixed-grade secondary copper materials, stored under controlled conditions, waiting to be processed into refined metal. This is what our partner warehouse in Valencia looks like.

This is the starting point of the industrial cycle that the Alcum protocol is built around. Before the smelting, before the refining, before the NAV calculation.

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