90% odds of a 25bp hike ยท Wednesday 18:00๏ผUTC๏ผ ยท Warsh presser
A hike lifts the short end of the dollar curve โ EURUSD usually softens and USDJPY tracks yields higher. The moment the print lands is the busiest window in FX
Pairs to watch: EURUSD ยท USDJPY ยท USDKRW
A higher discount rate hits the longest-duration names first โ tech and AI chips. Wider net interest margins support banks. Energy follows oil, with gasoline up 3.9% in a single month in the August CPI โ inflation is still an energy story
Names to watch: Nvidia (NVDA) ยท Tesla (TSLA) ยท Micron (MU) ยท JPMorgan (JPM)
XAUUSD โ higher real rates cap gold while inflation and safe-haven demand push back. XBRUSD / XTIUSD โ a hike weighs on demand expectations while supply risks persist, with crude already above 100. NAS100 / US500 โ heavy growth weight makes them the most rate-sensitive. HK50 tracks offshore liquidity
Instruments: XAUUSD ยท XBRUSD ยท XTIUSD ยท NAS100 ยท US500 ยท HK50
โฟ Crypto: tighter liquidity is a headwind
Tighter dollar liquidity plus higher real rates usually pressure high-beta risk assets. If the dot plot hints at a second hike this year, downside pressure builds
Assets: BTC ยท ETH ยท GT
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