Russia intends to launch a large-scale, combined missile and drone attack on Ukraine tonight, involving Tu-95MS and Tu-160M strategic bombers tonight.

There is also a threat of Oreshnik IRBMs being launched during the night.

There are currently at least 25 Geran-2/Gerbera drones detected in Ukrainian airspace, with more expected to enter shortly.

4 Russian Tu-95MS strategic bombers have departed from Olenya Airbase, flying south to their launch lines. Activity on Russian command and control frequencies and a combat frequency is also recorded.

Keep in mind, this is NOT a retaliatory attack to the Ukrainian Starobilsk attack. Russia has been preparing this for the last week.

As for the Oreshnik, I’m not convinced Russia intends to use it, as I feel like this warning by Zelensky is related to a possible retaliation for the Starobilsk attack. But as will see.

1-2 Tu-160M strategic bombers are also likely airborne from Ukrainka Airbase, Amur Oblast.

Kinzhal on Kyiv

I stepped away for 2 minutes bro

2 missiles, flying to the north of Kyiv Oblast

It will likely bypass Kyiv for Zhytomyr

The second one flies on the same course, past Nizhny, Chernihiv Oblast.

The first Kinzhal is flying to Starokostyantyniv Airbase

50 km away. 3 missiles.

Explosions in Kyiv and Konotop are from Mach cones. There are no impacts in Kyiv.

Explosions in Starokostyantyniv.

Repeated explosions in Starokostyantyniv.

All clear now

In my opinion, these strikes on Starokostyantyniv Airbase are an attempt at delaying/disrupting the take-off of Ukrainian fighter jets involved in the shooting down of Russian cruise missiles later on.

Also, it seems like one of the Kinzhals (the third one) impacted something in western Kyiv Oblast or southern Zhytomyr Oblast, because it disappeared from radars way too early for it to be an impact at Starokostyantyniv.

Btw, this is just fear mongering by Ukrainian channels, citing sources who are engagement farming. The Times of Ukraine is notorious for this.

There is zero information to suggest that 3 Oreshniks will be launched. At most, it would be two, and even then this is likely not going to happen.

Filter your information sources please.

Oreshnik IRBM threat from Kapustin Yar

Unconfirmed information of an Oreshnik launch. Unclear if this is related to test launches or a real strike.

We need to wait 10 minutes.

I jinxed it, didn't I...

Remember, Oreshniks CANNOT be detected by radars until they are falling on their targets. If you are in Ukraine, it is better to take shelter now.

6 minutes until all clear