Fundamental Financial Analysis for June 13, 2023
Hello, traders! Here's a brief fundamental financial analysis for June 13, 2023, based on the information available on Forex Factory.
Economic Calendar:
1. UK - Average Earnings Index +Bonus (April) - This indicator measures the change in the price businesses and the government pay for labor, including bonuses. A higher reading is generally positive for the GBP.
2. UK - Claimant Count Change (May) - This data reflects the change in the number of people claiming unemployment-related benefits. A lower figure is generally positive for the GBP.
3. UK - Unemployment Rate (April) - The unemployment rate measures the percentage of the total workforce that is unemployed and actively seeking employment. A lower rate is generally positive for the GBP.
4. Eurozone - Industrial Production (April) - This data measures the change in the total inflation-adjusted value of output produced by manufacturers, mines, and utilities. A higher reading is generally positive for the EUR.
Hello, traders! Here's a brief fundamental financial analysis for June 13, 2023, based on the information available on Forex Factory.
Economic Calendar:
1. UK - Average Earnings Index +Bonus (April) - This indicator measures the change in the price businesses and the government pay for labor, including bonuses. A higher reading is generally positive for the GBP.
2. UK - Claimant Count Change (May) - This data reflects the change in the number of people claiming unemployment-related benefits. A lower figure is generally positive for the GBP.
3. UK - Unemployment Rate (April) - The unemployment rate measures the percentage of the total workforce that is unemployed and actively seeking employment. A lower rate is generally positive for the GBP.
4. Eurozone - Industrial Production (April) - This data measures the change in the total inflation-adjusted value of output produced by manufacturers, mines, and utilities. A higher reading is generally positive for the EUR.
Hello Guys, there was a mistake in the technical analysis of these two past days. I deleted them, sorry for the issue. The fundametal analysis will help you to have a real sense of the market.
Good luck with your trades.
Good luck with your trades.
Fundamental Analysis for 13th June 2023, USD Based on CPI News
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a key indicator of inflation and a significant economic announcement that can significantly impact currency markets. Inflation directly influences the Federal Reserve's decisions on interest rates, and hence, impacts the value of the USD.
Let's assume that the CPI data released today exceeded market expectations with a higher than anticipated inflation rate.
USD Pairs
EUR/USD: The stronger CPI data implies a higher probability of an interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve. The prospect of higher yields attracts more foreign investors to the USD, increasing its demand. As a result, we can expect the EUR/USD pair to go down. Look for sell opportunities if the price breaks below significant support levels.
USD/JPY: This pair is likely to react positively to the better-than-expected inflation data. A stronger USD and expectations of higher interest rates should lead to an upward movement in this pair. Monitor for buying opportunities if the price breaks above key resistance levels.
GBP/USD: This pair should also see a decrease with a stronger USD. As in the case with EUR/USD, monitor for potential sell opportunities if the price dips below crucial support levels.
AUD/USD: Given that higher interest rates in the U.S. can decrease the demand for riskier assets such as the AUD, this pair is expected to decline. Seek selling opportunities following key support level breaks.
Gold
Gold typically has an inverse relationship with the USD. Therefore, with a stronger USD following positive CPI data, the price of gold is likely to go down. Gold is often used as a hedge against inflation, so if the CPI data implies manageable inflation, this could also lead to a decline in gold prices as investors see less need for this hedge. Look for selling opportunities, especially if the price breaks below significant support levels.
Remember that while fundamental analysis can provide a broad view of market directions, it doesn't guarantee specific movements. Market sentiment, geopolitical events, and other economic news can also significantly impact currency and gold prices. Hence, it's crucial to employ risk management techniques in your trading strategy.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a key indicator of inflation and a significant economic announcement that can significantly impact currency markets. Inflation directly influences the Federal Reserve's decisions on interest rates, and hence, impacts the value of the USD.
Let's assume that the CPI data released today exceeded market expectations with a higher than anticipated inflation rate.
USD Pairs
EUR/USD: The stronger CPI data implies a higher probability of an interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve. The prospect of higher yields attracts more foreign investors to the USD, increasing its demand. As a result, we can expect the EUR/USD pair to go down. Look for sell opportunities if the price breaks below significant support levels.
USD/JPY: This pair is likely to react positively to the better-than-expected inflation data. A stronger USD and expectations of higher interest rates should lead to an upward movement in this pair. Monitor for buying opportunities if the price breaks above key resistance levels.
GBP/USD: This pair should also see a decrease with a stronger USD. As in the case with EUR/USD, monitor for potential sell opportunities if the price dips below crucial support levels.
AUD/USD: Given that higher interest rates in the U.S. can decrease the demand for riskier assets such as the AUD, this pair is expected to decline. Seek selling opportunities following key support level breaks.
Gold
Gold typically has an inverse relationship with the USD. Therefore, with a stronger USD following positive CPI data, the price of gold is likely to go down. Gold is often used as a hedge against inflation, so if the CPI data implies manageable inflation, this could also lead to a decline in gold prices as investors see less need for this hedge. Look for selling opportunities, especially if the price breaks below significant support levels.
Remember that while fundamental analysis can provide a broad view of market directions, it doesn't guarantee specific movements. Market sentiment, geopolitical events, and other economic news can also significantly impact currency and gold prices. Hence, it's crucial to employ risk management techniques in your trading strategy.
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Algo Traders
Fundamental Analysis for 13th June 2023, USD Based on CPI News The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a key indicator of inflation and a significant economic announcement that can significantly impact currency markets. Inflation directly influences the Federal…
Yesterday I told you less USD CPI will lead to decline in GOLD.
Today we have the super important news of USD Federal Fund Rate ...
The Federal Funds Rate is the interest rate at which banks lend reserve balances to other banks on an overnight basis. It is a key monetary policy tool used by the Federal Reserve to control inflation and maintain economic stability. Changes in the Federal Funds Rate can have a significant impact on the forex market, particularly for the USD and its currency pairs.
If the Federal Reserve announces a higher-than-expected increase in the Federal Funds Rate, it could lead to a stronger USD, as higher interest rates make the currency more attractive to investors seeking higher yields. In this scenario, you might consider buying opportunities in USD currency pairs, such as USD/JPY, USD/CHF, and USD/CAD. Conversely, if the Federal Reserve announces a lower-than-expected increase or a decrease in the Federal Funds Rate, it could lead to a weaker USD, as lower interest rates make the currency less attractive to investors. In this case, you might consider selling opportunities in USD currency pairs, such as EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and AUD/USD.
Regarding gold, it is often considered a hedge against inflation and a safe haven during times of economic uncertainty. If the Federal Reserve announces a higher-than-expected increase in the Federal Funds Rate, investors may perceive this as a sign of economic strength and be less inclined to seek refuge in gold, causing its price to fall. In this scenario, you might consider selling opportunities in gold. Conversely, if the Federal Reserve announces a lower-than-expected increase or a decrease in the Federal Funds Rate, investors may perceive this as a sign of economic weakness and flock to gold as a safe haven, causing its price to rise. In this case, you might consider buying opportunities in gold.
Please note that these are general guidelines and not specific trading recommendations. It's essential to conduct your own analysis, taking into account other factors such as technical indicators, market sentiment, and global economic events, before making any trading decisions.
Additionally, always consider your risk tolerance and investment objectives when trading in the forex and commodities markets.
The Federal Funds Rate is the interest rate at which banks lend reserve balances to other banks on an overnight basis. It is a key monetary policy tool used by the Federal Reserve to control inflation and maintain economic stability. Changes in the Federal Funds Rate can have a significant impact on the forex market, particularly for the USD and its currency pairs.
If the Federal Reserve announces a higher-than-expected increase in the Federal Funds Rate, it could lead to a stronger USD, as higher interest rates make the currency more attractive to investors seeking higher yields. In this scenario, you might consider buying opportunities in USD currency pairs, such as USD/JPY, USD/CHF, and USD/CAD. Conversely, if the Federal Reserve announces a lower-than-expected increase or a decrease in the Federal Funds Rate, it could lead to a weaker USD, as lower interest rates make the currency less attractive to investors. In this case, you might consider selling opportunities in USD currency pairs, such as EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and AUD/USD.
Regarding gold, it is often considered a hedge against inflation and a safe haven during times of economic uncertainty. If the Federal Reserve announces a higher-than-expected increase in the Federal Funds Rate, investors may perceive this as a sign of economic strength and be less inclined to seek refuge in gold, causing its price to fall. In this scenario, you might consider selling opportunities in gold. Conversely, if the Federal Reserve announces a lower-than-expected increase or a decrease in the Federal Funds Rate, investors may perceive this as a sign of economic weakness and flock to gold as a safe haven, causing its price to rise. In this case, you might consider buying opportunities in gold.
Please note that these are general guidelines and not specific trading recommendations. It's essential to conduct your own analysis, taking into account other factors such as technical indicators, market sentiment, and global economic events, before making any trading decisions.
Additionally, always consider your risk tolerance and investment objectives when trading in the forex and commodities markets.
If FOMC announces higher rates the USD will go stronger:
If FOMC announces lesser rates or stop it the USD will go weak in general.
If FOMC announces lesser rates or stop it the USD will go weak in general.
Hello friends! This week we have the super important news of the SNB Policy Rate (CHF) and Official Bank Rate (GBP) on Thursday, June 22. Have CHF and GBP pairs on your watch list.
Interest rate decisions by central banks, such as the Swiss National Bank (SNB) for CHF and the Bank of England (BoE) for GBP, can have a significant impact on the forex market. Changes in interest rates can influence the demand for a currency, as higher interest rates make the currency more attractive to investors seeking higher yields.
CHF Pairs:
If the SNB announces a higher-than-expected increase in interest rates, it could lead to a stronger CHF. In this scenario, you might consider buying opportunities in CHF currency pairs, such as CHF/JPY and USD/CHF (selling USD). Conversely, if the SNB announces a lower-than-expected increase or a decrease in interest rates, it could lead to a weaker CHF. In this case, you might consider selling opportunities in CHF currency pairs, such as CHF/JPY and USD/CHF (buying USD).
GBP Pairs:
If the BoE announces a higher-than-expected increase in interest rates, it could lead to a stronger GBP. In this scenario, you might consider buying opportunities in GBP currency pairs, such as GBP/USD, GBP/JPY, and EUR/GBP (selling EUR). Conversely, if the BoE announces a lower-than-expected increase or a decrease in interest rates, it could lead to a weaker GBP. In this case, you might consider selling opportunities in GBP currency pairs, such as GBP/USD, GBP/JPY, and EUR/GBP (buying EUR).
Please note that these are general guidelines and not specific trading recommendations. It's essential to conduct your own analysis, taking into account other factors such as technical indicators, market sentiment, and global economic events, before making any trading decisions. Additionally, always consider your risk tolerance and investment objectives when trading in the forex market.
CHF Pairs:
If the SNB announces a higher-than-expected increase in interest rates, it could lead to a stronger CHF. In this scenario, you might consider buying opportunities in CHF currency pairs, such as CHF/JPY and USD/CHF (selling USD). Conversely, if the SNB announces a lower-than-expected increase or a decrease in interest rates, it could lead to a weaker CHF. In this case, you might consider selling opportunities in CHF currency pairs, such as CHF/JPY and USD/CHF (buying USD).
GBP Pairs:
If the BoE announces a higher-than-expected increase in interest rates, it could lead to a stronger GBP. In this scenario, you might consider buying opportunities in GBP currency pairs, such as GBP/USD, GBP/JPY, and EUR/GBP (selling EUR). Conversely, if the BoE announces a lower-than-expected increase or a decrease in interest rates, it could lead to a weaker GBP. In this case, you might consider selling opportunities in GBP currency pairs, such as GBP/USD, GBP/JPY, and EUR/GBP (buying EUR).
Please note that these are general guidelines and not specific trading recommendations. It's essential to conduct your own analysis, taking into account other factors such as technical indicators, market sentiment, and global economic events, before making any trading decisions. Additionally, always consider your risk tolerance and investment objectives when trading in the forex market.
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⚠️ This week's important news ⚠️
Hi everyone,
This week, on Wednesday, 22, June 2023 we have Interest rate decisions for CHF and GBP.
A 25 basis points increase, priced by the market and any surprises can affect these currencies significantly.
We are watching the market to see what happens for CHF and GBP.
All the best and happy trading
MM Sanei
Hi everyone,
This week, on Wednesday, 22, June 2023 we have Interest rate decisions for CHF and GBP.
A 25 basis points increase, priced by the market and any surprises can affect these currencies significantly.
We are watching the market to see what happens for CHF and GBP.
All the best and happy trading
MM Sanei
⚠️ Important Analysis ⚠️
I can provide you with some general information on how central bank decisions, such as changes in the cash rate, can affect a currency and potential buying or selling opportunities.
Cash Rate Decision Impact on Currency:
When a central bank, such as the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), makes a surprise decision regarding the cash rate, it can have significant effects on the currency. If the RBA unexpectedly leaves the cash rate unchanged, like today, it may lead to a short-term decline in volatility as the market adjusts to the unexpected decision.
Market Sentiment and Trading Opportunities:
Market sentiment plays a crucial role in determining the reaction to central bank decisions. In the scenario you described, where the market expected a 25-point basis increase but the RBA did not deliver it, traders may reassess their positions and adjust their strategies accordingly. This reassessment of expectations can create opportunities for both buying and selling.
a. Buying Opportunities: If the surprise decision not to increase the cash rate leads to a short-term weakening of the AUD, it might present a buying opportunity for traders who believe the market's reaction is overblown or that the long-term fundamentals of the Australian economy remain strong.
b. Selling Opportunities: Conversely, if the surprise decision is interpreted as a negative signal for the Australian economy and the AUD starts to decline, it might present a selling opportunity for traders who expect further weakness in the currency.
Remember that financial markets are inherently unpredictable, and trading always carries risks. It's crucial to perform thorough research, conduct risk assessments, and make informed decisions based on your individual circumstances and risk tolerance.
I can provide you with some general information on how central bank decisions, such as changes in the cash rate, can affect a currency and potential buying or selling opportunities.
Cash Rate Decision Impact on Currency:
When a central bank, such as the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), makes a surprise decision regarding the cash rate, it can have significant effects on the currency. If the RBA unexpectedly leaves the cash rate unchanged, like today, it may lead to a short-term decline in volatility as the market adjusts to the unexpected decision.
Market Sentiment and Trading Opportunities:
Market sentiment plays a crucial role in determining the reaction to central bank decisions. In the scenario you described, where the market expected a 25-point basis increase but the RBA did not deliver it, traders may reassess their positions and adjust their strategies accordingly. This reassessment of expectations can create opportunities for both buying and selling.
a. Buying Opportunities: If the surprise decision not to increase the cash rate leads to a short-term weakening of the AUD, it might present a buying opportunity for traders who believe the market's reaction is overblown or that the long-term fundamentals of the Australian economy remain strong.
b. Selling Opportunities: Conversely, if the surprise decision is interpreted as a negative signal for the Australian economy and the AUD starts to decline, it might present a selling opportunity for traders who expect further weakness in the currency.
Remember that financial markets are inherently unpredictable, and trading always carries risks. It's crucial to perform thorough research, conduct risk assessments, and make informed decisions based on your individual circumstances and risk tolerance.
⚠️ This week's important news ⚠️
The release of the monthly CPI, Core CPI, and yearly CPI for the US dollar on July 12, 2023, is a major event that will likely have a significant impact on the value of the US dollar.
The expected decline in the yearly CPI from 4 to 3.1 percent is a positive sign for the US dollar. This is because it suggests that inflation is starting to come under control, which could lead to the Federal Reserve easing its monetary policy.
Overall, the release of the monthly CPI, Core CPI, and yearly CPI on July 12, 2023, is a mixed bag for the US dollar. The expected decline in the yearly CPI is positive, but the expected increase in the monthly CPI is not. It is likely that the market will react to the data in a volatile manner, and it is important to be prepared for both positive and negative moves in the US dollar.
The release of the monthly CPI, Core CPI, and yearly CPI for the US dollar on July 12, 2023, is a major event that will likely have a significant impact on the value of the US dollar.
The expected decline in the yearly CPI from 4 to 3.1 percent is a positive sign for the US dollar. This is because it suggests that inflation is starting to come under control, which could lead to the Federal Reserve easing its monetary policy.
Overall, the release of the monthly CPI, Core CPI, and yearly CPI on July 12, 2023, is a mixed bag for the US dollar. The expected decline in the yearly CPI is positive, but the expected increase in the monthly CPI is not. It is likely that the market will react to the data in a volatile manner, and it is important to be prepared for both positive and negative moves in the US dollar.
⚠️ Today brief news: 13, Oct 2023 ⚠️
🔹 "In October, the Japanese Producer Price Index (PPI) increased by 0.8 percent annually. On a monthly basis, the producer prices decreased by 0.4 percent compared to September. The country's export price index increased by 0.1 percent compared to September, while the import price index increased by 1.3 percent compared to September.
🔸 China is considering the purchase of Boeing 737 Max, signaling a warming of US-China relations.
🔹 Goldman Sachs has predicted a 2.1 percent economic growth for the United States in 2024.
🔸 Currently, Westpac predicts that the Reserve Bank of Australia will not further increase the interest rate."
🔹 "In October, the Japanese Producer Price Index (PPI) increased by 0.8 percent annually. On a monthly basis, the producer prices decreased by 0.4 percent compared to September. The country's export price index increased by 0.1 percent compared to September, while the import price index increased by 1.3 percent compared to September.
🔸 China is considering the purchase of Boeing 737 Max, signaling a warming of US-China relations.
🔹 Goldman Sachs has predicted a 2.1 percent economic growth for the United States in 2024.
🔸 Currently, Westpac predicts that the Reserve Bank of Australia will not further increase the interest rate."
⚠️ For GOLD Traders ⚠️ "Just Analytics, Not Trading Reccommendations"
Those who are interested on GOLD, last week GOLD price dropped to 1932.5 $. The price is near an important support at 1932 - 1934 $. The price might getting interesting for buyers.
Tomorrow we have CPI news for USD, if the CPI value be lower or higher from predicted value it will move the price up or down so be cautious.
Those who are interested on GOLD, last week GOLD price dropped to 1932.5 $. The price is near an important support at 1932 - 1934 $. The price might getting interesting for buyers.
Tomorrow we have CPI news for USD, if the CPI value be lower or higher from predicted value it will move the price up or down so be cautious.
⚠️ Update news: 13, Oct 2023 ⚠️
🔹 "Today's calendar is calm, and prices have remained stable up to this moment.
🔸 Markets are gearing up for inflation data this week, including the inflation rates of the United States, the United Kingdom, and Europe."
🔹 "Today's calendar is calm, and prices have remained stable up to this moment.
🔸 Markets are gearing up for inflation data this week, including the inflation rates of the United States, the United Kingdom, and Europe."
⚠️ Here's the current market overview ⚠️
EUR: Indicating a slight inclination towards buying, the long-term trend remains consistently stable, although there is currently no notable momentum.
GBP: Exhibiting a neutral long-term trend, there is a mild inclination towards buying according to lower trend analysis.
CHF: Maintaining a neutral position, lacking any significant impulse.
USD: Showing a short-term selling trend against the backdrop of a long-term buying trend.
GOLD: Reflecting a short-term buying trend in contrast to the long-term selling trend.
JPY: Demonstrating a consistently stable selling trend across all periods.
AUD: Displaying a short-term buying trend against the prevailing long-term selling trend.
NZD: Exhibiting a selling trend across all periods.
CAD: Holding a neutral stance with no discernible impulse, likely due to a bank holiday.
EUR: Indicating a slight inclination towards buying, the long-term trend remains consistently stable, although there is currently no notable momentum.
GBP: Exhibiting a neutral long-term trend, there is a mild inclination towards buying according to lower trend analysis.
CHF: Maintaining a neutral position, lacking any significant impulse.
USD: Showing a short-term selling trend against the backdrop of a long-term buying trend.
GOLD: Reflecting a short-term buying trend in contrast to the long-term selling trend.
JPY: Demonstrating a consistently stable selling trend across all periods.
AUD: Displaying a short-term buying trend against the prevailing long-term selling trend.
NZD: Exhibiting a selling trend across all periods.
CAD: Holding a neutral stance with no discernible impulse, likely due to a bank holiday.
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The forward tests of my new strategy are going so well. this is just a sample of successful buy trade on GBPUSD with 150 points profit right to the first target. Technical analysis when combined with fundamental indicators will result in super awesome wining trades.
Follow my channel for more information:
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