Low CPI Data printed today > This may just lead to investor confidence in the stock market going into the year-end holidays. What this means is we might witness a 'risk-on' sentiment with equities pushing higher and the dollar weakening... BUT this is not the time to be celebrating and going into 'buy buy buy mode'. CPI REPORT IS JUST ONE PIECE OF POSITIVE INFORMATION the fed is looking at to gauge the state of the economy.📚💡
Plan the trade. Trade the Plan.📚💡📉📈
+27 65 667 4512
info@africanforexinstitute.com
+27 65 667 4512
info@africanforexinstitute.com
One of the subjects we cover in our Master Class is the Yield Curve
Here's a quick update on the yield curve: ⚠️ The US Treasury curve is now more than 70% inverted.
In the last 50 years, every time we surpass this threshold a recession followed.
We are now at 76% with the Fed still hiking rates and doing QT
What does this mean for the dollar, for US stock market and Gold?📚💡📈📉
Here's a quick update on the yield curve: ⚠️ The US Treasury curve is now more than 70% inverted.
In the last 50 years, every time we surpass this threshold a recession followed.
We are now at 76% with the Fed still hiking rates and doing QT
What does this mean for the dollar, for US stock market and Gold?📚💡📈📉
Events this Month (Nov) :
1. Most tech layoffs announced since 2001.
2. $30 billion collapse of crypto exchange (FTX)
3. US credit card debt hits record $930 billion.
4. Wells Fargo mortgage business drops 90%.
5. 37% of small business in US unable to pay rent.
1. Most tech layoffs announced since 2001.
2. $30 billion collapse of crypto exchange (FTX)
3. US credit card debt hits record $930 billion.
4. Wells Fargo mortgage business drops 90%.
5. 37% of small business in US unable to pay rent.
The Real A.F.I_FOREX CHANNEL📚💡👨💻📊📈
Key Take away from the FOMC Minutes released on Wednesday: 1. Most respondents to the Open Market Desk’s surveys viewed a 50 basis point increase in the target range for the federal funds rate at the December meeting as the most likely outcome. In other…
2. In discussing potential policy actions at upcoming meetings, participants reaffirmed their strong commitment to
returning inflation to the Committee’s 2 percent objective, and they continued to anticipate that ongoing increases in the target range for the federal funds rate
would be appropriate in order to attain a sufficiently restrictive stance of policy to bring inflation down over
time. Many participants commented that there was significant uncertainty about the ultimate level of the federal funds rate needed to achieve the Committee’s goals
and that their assessment of that level would depend, in
part, on incoming data.
Overall, the market is expecting the FED to be less aggressive. As you may already know, the monetary policy effects are lagging so the FED don't want to overdo it and lend the economy into a disinflationary situation.
Also important to note, the market is forward looking and tends to price in what the FED might do in the near future. This is why we are seeing a risk-on sentiment play out. Be adaptive.
returning inflation to the Committee’s 2 percent objective, and they continued to anticipate that ongoing increases in the target range for the federal funds rate
would be appropriate in order to attain a sufficiently restrictive stance of policy to bring inflation down over
time. Many participants commented that there was significant uncertainty about the ultimate level of the federal funds rate needed to achieve the Committee’s goals
and that their assessment of that level would depend, in
part, on incoming data.
Overall, the market is expecting the FED to be less aggressive. As you may already know, the monetary policy effects are lagging so the FED don't want to overdo it and lend the economy into a disinflationary situation.
Also important to note, the market is forward looking and tends to price in what the FED might do in the near future. This is why we are seeing a risk-on sentiment play out. Be adaptive.
Eurozone inflation comes down in November, paving way for 50bp ECB hike
Inflation dropped more than expected from 10.6 to 10% in November, mainly on energy price developments. Core inflation remained stable at 5% though. While we’re far from out of the woods yet, it does look like the current economic environment could push the European Central Bank to a smaller 50bp hike next month.
Inflation dropped more than expected from 10.6 to 10% in November, mainly on energy price developments. Core inflation remained stable at 5% though. While we’re far from out of the woods yet, it does look like the current economic environment could push the European Central Bank to a smaller 50bp hike next month.
FED Powell speech: Powell's speech came across Neutral tonight. He confirmed a possible slow down in rate hikes but also reaffirmed the Feds commitment in reducing the inflation rate and doing whatever it takes to archive their 2% target.
To see a continuation of:
XAU/USD BUYS
US30 BUYS
GU BUYS
EU BUYS
Dollar weakness which started back in October/ November last year (2022)
We want to see a continuation of improving CPI data (Inflation). In other words, inflation needs to print lower.
We have to see a continuation of bad US economic data which will negatively impact the dollar.
All this plays into the market expectation psychology that the fed may pivot to avoid a possible Recession.
For The opposite to happen, we need to see bad CPI data. In other words, Inflation printing higher. (data to be released tomorrow). This will lead to Dollar (DXY) strength, weak Gold, weak GU,EU,US30.
XAU/USD BUYS
US30 BUYS
GU BUYS
EU BUYS
Dollar weakness which started back in October/ November last year (2022)
We want to see a continuation of improving CPI data (Inflation). In other words, inflation needs to print lower.
We have to see a continuation of bad US economic data which will negatively impact the dollar.
All this plays into the market expectation psychology that the fed may pivot to avoid a possible Recession.
For The opposite to happen, we need to see bad CPI data. In other words, Inflation printing higher. (data to be released tomorrow). This will lead to Dollar (DXY) strength, weak Gold, weak GU,EU,US30.
The Real A.F.I_FOREX CHANNEL📚💡👨💻📊📈
To see a continuation of: XAU/USD BUYS US30 BUYS GU BUYS EU BUYS Dollar weakness which started back in October/ November last year (2022) We want to see a continuation of improving CPI data (Inflation). In other words, inflation needs to print lower. We have…
We have seen the market play out as anticipated since the latest inflation data (CPI) was released last Thursday.📚💡📉📈
Monday has started with a pull back, grabbing some liquidity and looking for fair value to continue with 'Risk-On' trades. We still see relative dollar weakness for this trading week unless we have new fundamental data that may change the course of direction.
The Real A.F.I_FOREX CHANNEL📚💡👨💻📊📈
Monday has started with a pull back, grabbing some liquidity and looking for fair value to continue with 'Risk-On' trades. We still see relative dollar weakness for this trading week unless we have new fundamental data that may change the course of direction.
Dollar weakness as projected📚💡🙌🏽